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DXY: False Breakout, Targets BelowHi traders and investors! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). On the daily timeframe, the Dollar Index is in a sideways range. Upper boundary 98.959, lower boundary 95.906. We see a familiar false breakout pattern of the upper boundary of the range. The price then returned back into the range with a seller IKC candle (the highest-volume candle within the initiative). During this false breakout, the price moved above the 50% level of the last seller initiative on the weekly timeframe, which strengthens the pattern. I am waiting for the first target at 96.66 and the second target at 95.90. As a reminder, my broader expectation is a move toward 94.6. Indirectly, the likelihood of continued decline in the Dollar Index is supported by the fact that the sideways range has expanded more to the downside than to the upside. Wishing you profitable trades!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
TOP DOWN ANALYSIS OF DXY weekly timeframe applying dow theory to the downside. recent lows broken with an impulsive bearish move. an fvg left behind, likely to be filled later. after breaking recent lows and the 100 monthly key level, price shows weakness with a bullish falling flag. expecting an extension toward the weekly cp level @95 weekly key level. tdi sharkfin to the left signaled a reversal (confirmed). looking for proper divergence and a w-pattern in line with technicals. ideally, a head and shoulders on tdi with the second shoulder at the mbl or a bounce on the signal line. anticipating an extension to the bands, with rsi reaching or approaching extreme levels.
TVC:DXYShort
by Spear_investments-group
2
This is the decisive factor for the overall market. Indices are all at long standing macro tops that have, historically, been the max targets for cycle tops. However, it should be noted that the weekly Stochastic RSI for the DXY is about to cross down on the weekly time frame. This is an almost identical scenario to the DXY break of a multi-cycle support in 2002. The 2002 loss of trend support confirmed in September and the chart we are looking at now is almost a mirror image. This particular scenario will be extremely confusing, even for seasoned traders, since many are betting on former macro tops to mark the end of the bull market. All indicators are lagging so, until a confirmation below .96, hedging short at local highs isn't out of the question. However, I would urge anyone basing decisions on a bias regarding macro life cycle trends on newer assets to be aware of the possibly break down on the DXY a react accordingly.
TVC:DXYLong
by fishguru73
1
BEARISH CONTINUATION FOR DXYBearish Bias for CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly context: The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure , so rallies are suspect. 4H structure: We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower . The key zones on chart Breaker / sell zone: \~ 97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance). Line in the sand: \~ 97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation. Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~ 98.20 . Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens. Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart. Trade plan Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred): Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep). Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer). Targets: T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself) T2: 96.47.00 Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play): Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35 . Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45 . Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12 . Target: 96.478 Management & invalidation If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20 , the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck). If price hesitates at 97.00 , trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478 . News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases. Why this makes sense * The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower. * The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.” * The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target ( 96.478 ). One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12 ; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35 ; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478 ; hard stop above 98.12–98.20 . *Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.* PLEASE PUA!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
DXY: Key Levels + Change of CharacterBias: Long Type: Reversal Trade Trend: Range Area of Value : Key Levels from downtrend before change of character. Momentum : 1D MACD Histogram about to cross the High Tide. Entry: 97.691 Exit: Stop Loss @ 96.890; Take Profit @ 100.894. Analysis Fact 1: DXY since 2022 has stayed above the 100.890 support level trending as a range. Fact 2: DXY has now crossed the key support level @ 100.890 which now acts as a resistance Fact 3: DXY crossed the trend line signaling a change of character + DXY MACD Histogram is about to cross to High Tide also signaling a change of character. Conclusion: Since the key support level @ 100.890 has now been broken, and there is a change of character about to happen. I believe that DXY will at the very least reach the resistance level @ 100.890 before bouncing off to continue the down trend or break to re-enter the range. Recommendation: Long Entry on the Area of Value (97.691), for stop loss add 1D ATR for distance (96.890), for take profit let it be the key resistance level (100.894). R:R of 4
TVC:DXYLong
by Rennalt_Capital
What Traders Should Expect from Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech?Today, all focus is on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where traders will look for hints about the future direction of monetary policy. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has often marked major policy framework shifts and signals of immediate policy changes. Today it may be no different, with one key factor in the background: the heavy pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve. From the 2008 financial crisis to the Covid-19 shock, US core inflation remained subdued, well below the 2% target, despite ultra-low rates and massive quantitative easing. The average core PCE over this period was 1.52%, with only a few months above 2% in the entire 12-year span. With Covid, that low-inflation era came to an end. Supply chain bottlenecks, changes in consumer behavior, enormous government spending to counter the slowdown, labor market imbalances, energy shocks from the Ukraine–Russia war, and more QE all combined to create the biggest global inflation surge in decades for an average of 3.43% for US. In the US, the divergence was sharper due to much larger fiscal spending under both Trump and Biden. The economy recovered more quickly, but inflation proved stickier. As inflation falling towards 2%, tariff effects then stalled the disinflation process. After Covid, the Federal Reserve changed its framework and introduced FAIT (Flexible Average Inflation Targeting). Under FAIT, the Fed no longer forced inflation back to 2% quickly but allowed overshooting to compensate for the 2008–2020 period of below-target inflation, giving more weight to fixing labor market problems. However, as seen in the data, the 3.43% average core inflation of the past five years risks unsettling long-term inflation expectations and increasing the chance that higher inflation becomes anchored. What is Expected in Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech? Powell has been working on policy framework changes for some time and looking at the last two years of Fed decisions, the central bank has already started to move away from FAIT. Today, Powell is expected to revert from FAIT back to the previous standard of flexible inflation targeting. This would signal greater emphasis on price stability, unless the labor market suffers a sharp downturn. Powell may also announce steps to improve transparency. Markets might initially see this shift away from FAIT as hawkish, but in reality the Fed has already been moving in that direction for some time, at least in its decisions if not its language. Much of the market impact may already be priced in. As for short-term policy, the September meeting will be crucial. Just days ago, markets were considering the possibility of a surprise 50-basis-point cut. After hot inflation data and strong PMI readings, even a 25-basis-point cut is priced at only 73%. If not for large payrolls revisions, the chance of a cut would be far lower, but the revisions have changed the outlook. Still, key data is due before September, including PCE, CPI, and the payrolls report. Powell may avoid giving a clear signal today and instead keep the option of a September cut open if conditions warrant. How Might Markets React to Powell? Reverting from FAIT is inherently hawkish, but markets may have priced in some of the effect already. Still, it remains broadly dollar-positive. The key will be how seriously Powell addresses weakness in the jobs market. If he does not see labor conditions as deteriorating meaningfully, the Fed has little reason to cut rates while both goods and services inflation are still picking up, even though shelter inflation is easing. If markets interpret Powell’s view on jobs and the framework change as not hawkish enough, profit-taking among dollar bulls could emerge. However, if Powell signals that recent job weakness is just one or two data points and the Fed remains in a good place, the message would be that no urgent changes are needed and it will be dollar positive.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair’s SpeechUS Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair’s Speech On Monday, we: → noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating at the start of a week packed with key events; → outlined a descending channel (shown in red); → highlighted that the price was trading around the channel’s median line, signalling a balanced market; → suggested that a test of one of the quarter lines (QL or QH), which divide the channel into four parts, could take place. As the DXY chart indicates, since then the balance has shifted in favour of buyers, with the price forming an upward trajectory (shown in purple lines) and breaking through short-term resistance R (which has now turned into support, as marked by the blue arrow). Support line S remains relevant. Today brings the key event that may have the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) this week – Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. This appearance is particularly significant because: → it is likely to be Powell’s last speech after seven years as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May amid ongoing tensions with President Trump; → market participants will closely monitor the tone of his remarks, as a rate cut is expected in September, while recent economic data – namely the rise in the Producer Price Index – suggest that the US economy could face renewed inflationary pressures due to Trump’s tariffs. Technical analysis of the DXY chart From a bullish perspective, in the short term the US dollar is advancing within the purple channel, supported by: → the lower boundary of this channel; → the demand imbalance zone in favour of buyers (shown in green), confirmed by yesterday’s sharp bullish candle. From a bearish perspective: → the RSI has entered overbought territory; → bullish momentum may fade after a breakout above the QH line; → a key resistance at the 99 level lies nearby – a level that reclaimed its role as resistance at the beginning of August (indicated by black arrows). A corrective pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY) could happen after its rally to the highest level since 6 August. However, the further trajectory will largely depend on Powell’s words this evening. According to Forex Factory, the speech is scheduled for 17:00 GMT+3. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
1