US100 trade ideas
Futures rise as traders await inflation data, Fed cuts in focusFutures rise as traders await inflation data, Fed cuts in focus
U.S. stock index futures rose slightly on Thursday as traders awaited key consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. ET, expected to show higher August inflation. Wednesday’s softer PPI report fueled bets on Fed rate cuts next week, with markets fully pricing in a 25-bps move and assigning a 10% chance of 50 bps.
Weak labor data reinforced easing expectations, while jobless claims numbers are also due today. The AI trade revived midweek, lifting chipmakers and utilities tied to data centers. Oracle gained 1.6% premarket, while gun stocks extended gains after news of a campus shooting. Despite September’s poor historical record, Wall Street has opened the month on a strong note, with strategists seeing Fed cuts as the key driver of market direction.
NAS100 Trading Zones – Volatility at All-Time HighsZone 1 – 23,980 – 23,991
This zone sits just below the all-time high, making it a critical supply area where volatility tends to spike. Sellers are likely to defend here aggressively, and false breakouts are common as liquidity is swept around all-time highs. A clean breakout and hold above would signal strong buyer conviction and could fuel a momentum push into uncharted territory.
Zone 2 – 23,765 – 23,781
This zone represents a key demand area where buyers previously stepped in to defend intraday lows. A sharp bounce here would confirm renewed buying interest, while a decisive break below would shift control back to sellers and could trigger a deeper correction.
With price trading near all-time highs, caution is warranted. Volatility often spikes in these areas, as liquidity hunts and false breakouts are common. Traders should be selective, waiting for clear confirmation before committing to new positions.
Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously positive, supported by strong momentum in select tech names and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts after softer labor data and a sharp drop in producer prices. Lower input costs are viewed as supportive for corporate margins in the near term, while falling yields continue to benefit growth stocks. Still, the broader backdrop is fragile, as weaker job revisions and signs of cooling demand remind investors that economic momentum is slowing.
NAS100 - Trading Zones and Market SentimentZone 1 – 23,926 – 23,943
This is a critical resistance area sitting just below the all-time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong zone for potential rejection. A clean breakout and successful retest, however, would flip the zone into demand and open the path toward fresh highs.
Zone 2 – 23,854 – 23,880
Formed around recent consolidation and breakout structure. Buyers are expected to defend this zone on pullbacks, creating potential long opportunities. If broken decisively, it could turn into resistance, signaling weakening momentum.
Zone 3 – 23,782 – 23,798
A deeper demand level aligned with prior absorption and intraday lows. Likely to attract liquidity sweeps and sharp reactions on first touch. A failure here would shift control back to sellers and suggest a larger corrective move.
Sentiment in US100 Today: Between Optimism and Caution
Retail investors pull back from most Big Tech, except Nvidia and Palantir.
According to Charles Schwab’s STAX activity, retail investors have generally reduced exposure to large-cap tech stocks, with the exception of Nvidia and Palantir, which both saw significant net buying. This points to rising risk appetite, particularly toward select growth names in the tech sector.
Job revision data weakens the economy, but keeps rate expectations alive.
Wall Street remains subdued but continues to lean on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, after job growth was revised down by nearly 1 million over the past 12 months.
Conclusion: Sentiment in the US100 remains cautiously optimistic, driven by a strong tech sector and dovish Fed expectations but the foundation is fragile, especially in light of weaker economic signals.
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 9 September 2025
- Nasdaq-100 reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 24500.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the support area between the pivotal support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 24000.00 (top of wave 3), the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 24500.00.
long at support nasim not trading this but i think this is interesting, if 1m holds at entry. think we can pump to this tp. if 1m closes really down. best not enter it as it would be catching daggers. but i would reverse the trade to next zone below. best enter after break, then back up with a wick on top. then enter the short. or middle of the 15m candle body as entry short.
Nasdaq-100: Trading Levels to WatchKey Zones Today
Supply Zones (Red)
Zone 1: 23,926 – 23,943
This is the upper resistance zone, located just below all time high. Sellers are likely positioned here, making it a strong area for potential rejection. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, would indicate buyer strength and could open the path toward new all-time highs.
Zone 2: 23,854 – 23,880
A key intraday supply area with multiple prior rejections. Often acts as a liquidity pool, where failed breakouts can trigger sharp downside moves. A clean break and hold above would flip this zone into short-term support for continuation longs.
Demand Zones (Green)
Zone 3: 23,708 – 23,734
Formed around the recent breakout structure, this zone is expected to attract buyers on pullbacks. A sharp bounce here would confirm demand strength, while a decisive break below flips the area into resistance and could trigger continuation shorts.
Zone 4: 23,551 – 23,577
A deeper support level, aligned with prior consolidation and buyer absorption. Strong bounce potential on first retest, but repeated tests weaken the level. A breakdown here would shift momentum clearly in favor of sellers and open space for a larger downside move.
Nas100 - Cautiously Bullish, Waiting on Momentum
Sentiment in the US100 is cautiously positive but fragile. Large-cap tech continues to support the index, and hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts provide additional tailwinds. Still, the index remains below its all-time high, and uncertainty around economic data and geopolitics keeps investors from going all-in.
In short: there is momentum and optimism, but it rests on a fragile foundation where a single weak data point could quickly shift sentiment.
Nas100: Trading Levels in FocusSupply Zones (Red)
23,853 - 23,873
A strong supply zone near recent highs. Sellers are expected to defend aggressively here, making it a potential rejection area. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, could open the path toward new highs.
23,742 – 23,759
This zone reflects last week’s high-volume rejection. Acts as an intraday decision area: sharp rejections can trigger short setups, while a clean break and hold above would strengthen bullish momentum.
Demand Zones (Green)
23,553 – 23,573
A fresh demand zone aligned with recent breakout structure. Buyers may attempt to defend here for continuation longs. If broken, the zone flips into resistance, adding downside pressure.
23,473 – 23,500
Well-tested support area with prior absorption. Strong bounce potential, but multiple retests increase the risk of a breakdown. A failure here would likely accelerate bearish momentum.
Overall Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish on Fragile Ground
At its core, the market is cautiously optimistic right now. Positive momentum from Big Tech and expectations of looser monetary policy are fueling short-term upside potential. At the same time, consolidation and uncertainty around macro data keep sentiment restrained. Momentum is present but it relies on breakout moves holding.
Key levels for us100we are facing an strong liquidity zone then we are not going to go against it even it give us the shake out. now, if it breakt the 23,745 and then it shakes out we can go to the 23900s but, in the case that it breaks 23635 and dont manage to reclaim the 23681 we can expect a fall but i dont see the fall that near. However lets see what tomorrow holds for us. Btw if it shakes out the 23748 we will cover once it reaches 23879 50 to 70% and then the rest we will see how we can add along the way.
NQ Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- We know that the FED opened the door for a rate cut in September (Next week). The FED gave priority to address Employment Mandate issue and considered the higher inflation data as one time shot.
2- Hence, the Inflation (the second FED mandate) the most relevant data this week with both PPI and CPI to validate the FED view of one time shot. Another higher inflation will destroy this narrative and the FED might revise the way forward.
The story is simple: Higher Inflation data will send NQ down and vice-versa for inline and softer inflation.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
The weekly close expresses really the incertitude regarding the direction. No clear direction; both direction are open; all will depend on inflation data.
Daily TF:
The daily close was bearish. NFP data provided an inline inflation data but a very negative employment data. As mentioned, bad data data is bad for NQ and vice-versa.
From daily perspective, price might retest Friday high or just NFP low (magenta dotted line) and continue down towards TP1, TP2 and TP3 particularly if Inflation data comes strong.
H4 TF:
H4 provided a break down. Inline with daily analysis, the least resistance is that price continues down after a short retrace up.
GL Everyone!
Buy zone of Nas100If we start trading inside the triangle again, then there is a possibility sellers will step in the market and push the market lower to the buy zone area. The triangle pattern is a strong indication of sell - however, the overall market structure of Nas100 is bullish, therefore, I will not be taking sells if sellers do step in the market, I will still wait for buy entries.
If the market trades up, and breaks resistance, I will look for buy entries on smaller TF and continue with the bullish momentum.
Bottoming, chart patternWe see Nasdaq already hit bottom in price of USD 23.258. We have been entry in that price (althought it has been muted by tradingview because we use indonesia language in description)
My reason for entry is l, he has hit the bottom and see rejection. My TP is in old ATH and my SL in half of my pips.
Three possibilities my setup not in my favor
1. The fed cut interest rate
2. Technically, its reversion pattern
3. It is what it is.