Trade Idea Long at 41,365 with 2 Hour BreakoutI missed the 2 hour breakout at 41,365. If I can get a pullback with the 15 minute chart, I will jump in.
My ideal trade will be 41,365
Stop is 180 ticks
Target is 550 ticks
MYM1! trade ideas
Dow Futures: Bullish Break in Play as Key Resistance FallsDow futures cleared not only the 200DMA on Thursday but also downtrend resistance dating back to the record highs set in February, suggesting a new trend may now be underway. While the initial rejection at 41787 warrants some caution, with momentum indicators swinging into bullish territory, there’s enough here to consider long setups heading into this weekend’s key trade meeting between the U.S. and China in Switzerland.
One idea would be to buy above the 50DMA with a stop below for protection. 41787 is an early hurdle to clear, with a break above opening the path for a potential run towards the 200DMA—that screens as a reasonable target.
If the price reverses and closes back below the 50DMA, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
Dow Jones MAY Monthly Gameplan Bearish DowntrendI am going into May with a bearish outlook. I am treating the end of April as a pullback/sideways resting consolidation before the continuation of the move down. This is in my opinion, the halfway mark of the move down. We had the first leg and now the second leg is setting up. Leg two WILL take out all three lows from the prior up move.
True support is at the 2020 yearly open at 31,000. I am bearish all the way down until 31,000
The Purple lines is every FOMC released since September 2024. Because all 4 are being used as resistance and the creation of the peak formation high, they represent bearishness.
I use the FOMC releases as highly accurate support and resistances.
Isn't it a coincidence that before the dump, the market tapped September's FOMC release level by a hair, dumped off 6000 ticks, slamming into 2023's Yearly Open of 36,750 and stopped on a dime? Very Peculiar indeed.
Once the market breaks above 45,000, it WILL use these FOMC levels and the 2025 open as major support before the march to 61,000. In order for the market to continue on its LONG term up trend, it needs to create this short-term bearish order flow first. It just so happens; this short-term bearishness will take MONTHS to resolve itself. DO NOT get fooled by any bullishness in the meantime. It is all counter trend to the bearish move down. Once the bearish move down has exhausted itself, THEN the Bullish uptrend will continue.
An example on the 15-minute chart of what I am explaining. Look at this 15 minute chart and compare it to the Monthly chart
Dow Jones - Market Conditions That Will Make A Grown Man Cry!Dow Jones has not had a good month when comparing with the gains Nasdaq booked or even the recovered losses throughout the month for S&P but I am optimistic about good times ahead.
In the short term, there is high potential for Dow jones to gravitate into the weekly SIBI @ $41,144 - $41,707, especially if NQ continues it's rally into a premium and Sunday NWOG does not change current market structure.
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps.
- Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales.
- President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023.
- As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done.
- Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully.
- Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls.
- Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
Go LONG on Dow Jones next week**Direction:** **LONG**
**LONG Targets:**
- **T1 = $41825.0**
- **T2 = $42750.0**
**Stop Levels:**
- **S1 = $40200.0**
- **S2 = $39750.0**
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Dow Jones.
**Key Insights:**
Analysts point to robust fundamentals in the U.S. economy, supported by strong labor market data and continued growth in the services sector. Consumer spending remains strong, buoyed by easing inflationary pressures and a confident outlook due to stabilizing interest rate expectations. Positive earnings results from blue-chip corporations in industries like technology and finance further bolster sentiment. Overall, market appetite for equities remains steadfast, making a compelling case for continued upside in the Dow Jones.
**Recent Performance:**
The Dow Jones has demonstrated resilience, finding support at the psychologically significant $40000 level in the previous sessions. It has gained approximately 1.8% over the past week, breaking through resistance at key levels as buying interest intensified. This move suggests strong institutional and retail investor confidence, with the index adhering to its bullish trajectory amidst bouts of volatility.
**Expert Analysis:**
Experts overwhelmingly project bullish sentiment for the upcoming week, citing favorable technical patterns and macroeconomic conditions. On the daily chart, ascending support levels and higher lows indicate robust upward momentum. Momentum indicators such as RSI reveal strengthening buying pressure without overbought conditions, further adding weight to the bullish thesis. Additionally, Wall Street strategists highlight year-end seasonality, which often supports equity strength, alongside a stable geopolitical landscape.
**News Impact:**
Recent Federal Reserve hints at pausing interest rate hikes have injected optimism into markets, signaling potential tailwinds for equity indices like the Dow Jones. Simultaneously, better-than-expected consumer confidence data and progress in debt ceiling negotiations have reassured investors about economic stability heading into year-end trading. Together, these developments have provided a positive backdrop supporting further upside for the Dow Jones.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, traders are advised to consider LONG positions in Dow Jones for the upcoming week. Favorable earnings, strong macroeconomic data, and positive sentiment create a conducive environment for continued bullish momentum, with clear technical levels validating the upside potential.
Dow Jones (YMM) - Rough Around The EdgesDow Jones is great when studying the SMT divergences that occurs between YM. NQ and ES.
As a market i solely use to compare with NQ and ES, i would want to study how price delivers up to 41,147 and how NQ and ES follows suite.
If a NWOG forms, i will be interested to see what pair out of the three has a bigger gap and what PD array has been affected
Bearish Pressure Builds: YMM2025 Struggles Below Resistance
Downtrend Confirmed: The price has been in a strong downtrend since early March 2025.
Lower Highs & Lower Lows: Classic pattern of a downtrend is visible.
Wide Bandwidth: Bands widened significantly during the sell-off in early April, indicating high volatility.
Support Zone Near 38,000: Recent candles show buying interest around the 38,000 level with long wicks and bullish follow-through.
Bearish Gap Down Area: Large red candles and gapping indicate panic selling and potential resistance near the 41,000–42,000 zone.
Rejection at the moving average or mid-Bollinger band could lead to another sell-off toward 38,000 or even 36,500.
Failure to hold above recent lows may confirm continuation of the downtrend.
Dow Updated Market Analysis Range BoundApril 2nd, the market tagged the September FOMC by a hair and dumped off. Where did this 6000 tick dump end up stopping? To the 2023 yearly open by a hair. Price has found support at the 2023 yearly open 5 times before the monster rip.
Now we are in a range. I am waiting for price to run a high in order to take a sell.
So far, this week, price is oscillating around the Weekly Open.
I am expecting the 2023 yearly open level to fail and get dumped on and price to go to 30,000
Is it going to happen again? My view to the markets right now...CBOT_MINI:YM1!
Is the Dow Jones breaking the downtrend again?
I believe there's a strong chance the markets are setting up for another move higher. From a fundamental standpoint, the recent pause in tariffs is a big deal. It removes an immediate layer of uncertainty that’s been hanging over the global economy, especially for exporters and multinational companies. On top of that, the fact that key tech products have been left out of the latest tariff actions is boosting confidence in the sector that has been leading market strength for years.
Economically, we’re still seeing resilience in key indicators. Unemployment remains low, consumer spending is steady, and central banks are staying cautious with tightening. The environment still leans more towards slow growth than recession, which supports equities over the medium term.
More importantly, my own criteria for a favorable market setup are lining up. Whether it’s sentiment, intermarket signals, or trend conditions—this looks like a solid spot for a bullish stance.
You can see my chart to check out my current viewpoint on the Dow Jones and how I’m positioning based on all this.
Not Financial Advice
Dow Jones Weekly Trend Analysis Bullish Push - Bearish DowntrendThe weekly trend is bearish. Price is short term bullish to pullback into bearish resistance.
I have marked resistance as the red box. This is the bottom of the two bullish weekly candles that got eliminated.
This pullback will accomplish multiple things.
First, it will start to shake out people already short and get them to get out while they watch their profits evaporate.
Second, it will scare people from taking further short trades as they see extreme bullishness spike up
Third, it will induce people to go Long thinking this is a buyable dip, only to smash on them later, once the bearish trend continues.
Fourth, the people that bought in November and January are hoping and praying that price can get back up to a smaller loss so they can sell and get out. Right now, they are deep underwater.
Case in point?
You don't want to go Long right INTO a brick wall of resistance. You have a peak formation high in place, marked as the red triangle. You have the 2025 open overhead. You have November and January buyers turned resistance.
In a downtrend, you go short at resistance levels and ignore bullishness. You use bull bars to enter by shorting pop ups.
Dow Jones Quarterly Chart Market Analysis 2020 Opening SupportFollowing this 30% pullback into the 2020 opening price support, this will take out the 2022 lows, find support at the COVID highs and bounce.
60,000 is the measured move from 2020 open to 2024 highs. Expect some resistance there.
Price support of 31,000
After further thinking, I don't think price will return to 2018 open as I previously thought. Instead just down to 2020 open.
I have projected the 2025 Open because this will become support in the future after price starts retracing off of 60,000
Another key support area is the 50% range from 46,000-31,000 at 38,750
A Fundamental Shift Signals a Long-Term Technical Bear MarketE-mini Dow Jones Index Futures & Options
Ticker: YM
Minimum fluctuation:
1.00 index point = $5.00
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Trading the Micro: cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html
Don't get fooled by the counter trend rally, Bearish to 27,500Don't be suckered into this bear market rally. Price is still bearish and will continue to be so until the 2018 Open price has been hit of 27,500. A clue the market has shown is the bodies of the last three days are suspended above a key level. This is a sign that price will return. When prices find a low at a key level, the bodies are AT the level.
Case in point, bodies of the candles are AT the key level, not suspended above it. This is ALWAYS the case for a major low in the market.
European session - Futures, another day down?Each morning I connect at 9am italian time. I look at Asian indexes, then FTMIB, FDAX to see how Europe is responding to the tariffs story.
I start watching ES NQ YM GC CL in early US premarket. If volatility is good we can have some shots otherwise waiting for news (often 8:30 ET ) or 9:30 US open.
This morning is a waiting for me.
FTMIB is rejecting now the 33000 JLInes but too early to start trading it.
Markets Goal is 2018 Yearly Open and Covid Peak Formation Low The market's goal is to return to the Covid peak formation low, the 2018 yearly open and the middle of the 2018 range. Along the way, all the lows will be taken to achieve this goal.
Middle of Range:
COVID Peak Formation Low:
Returning to 2018 Open:
It is very clear to me now that this is the gameplan. I will remain a bear until the 2018 Yearly Open price of 27,500. This is a 40% retracement. My only concern is I don't know HOW price will arrive there and when. That is the challenging aspect of it. I AM 100% confident that 27,500 is the goal.
Looking at April 7th's lows, these are so very obvious that these will get dunked on and eliminated soon.
