YM - Draw On Liquidity @ $40,673?Bullish elongated uptrend for sometime now and the next draw on liquidity before possible major shift is @ 40,673.
When will we see it book?
MYM1! trade ideas
Dow Jones Wealth Building Trades 1987 2.0 Long 49,000I have fine tuned my add strategy on this trade that I have been in for almost a month now. I am trading off of the weekly chart.
My original entry was June 30th at 39,520
I added again July 16th at 41,268
I plan on adding three more times, using the profits from the other two positions to fund these new positions.
Add 2: 42,500 area
Add 3: 44,000 area
Add 4: 45,200 area
I will bail out and close all positions by 48,500-49,000 area
What I don't get is why the market is setting up another 1987 style flash crash around August 2025?
Nearly EVERYTHING is identical to 1987 setup that this is what I am basing my trade off of.
Compare the two charts below and let me know. One from today and one from 1987
1987
2025
I am not sure what to do about that massive shorting opportunity coming up, if I want to just YOLO 10% of my portfolio on it. I feel ok with taking a 10% hit if it doesn't pan out. Or, do I just sit on cash and wait and see. I will have to wait until price starts to unfold later.
YM Short Trade SetupShort Trade Setup:
Entry: Look for a break below the recent consolidation low, around 39,425. A breakdown with increased selling volume could signal further downside.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just above the consolidation high or a recent resistance level, around 39,560. This minimizes risk in case of a false breakdown.
Target: Set the initial target at the previous support area of around 39,225, with the potential to extend lower if the bearish trend continues.
Wealth Building Trade Update (Long until 49,000) 25% Spike Down Just providing an update on the status of the market. Now that 40,000 is broken out of, it is on the march towards 50,000 or the 1.25X range expansion. After which the market will make a 25% spike down into the 0.50 level of 37,000 before continuing on the grind to 150,000.
This is all my own personal speculation of course but this is how I am trading the market. That spike down lines up perfectly with the 0.50 level AND that long term bull trendline. It also makes a higher low above November's 33,000 low.
This will allow the 49,500 high to be fuel as a weak high to be broken. Once 50,000 is broken, then the market will start to grind higher up to 150,000 and eventually accelerating towards the end.
The covid spike down was 36%. The June 2025 spike down will only be 25%, enough to shake off higher level longs before the march higher. I will out before that level.
Elliott Wave Suggests Right Side in Dow Futures (YM) Firmly BullDow Futures (YM) shows incomplete Elliott Wave bullish sequence from 4.19.2024 low favoring further upside. Rally from 4.19.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 40213 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 38111. Wave 3 higher is now in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 39174 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 38436. Wave (iii) higher ended at 39999 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 39488. Last leg wave (v) ended at 40006 where it also completed wave ((i)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 39595 and wave (b) ended at 39730. Wave (c) lower ended at 39448 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The Index has extended higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 40200 and dips in wave ii ended at 40014. Wave iii higher ended at 40572 and pullback in wave iv ended at 40279. Near term, expect wave v of (i) to complete soon, then it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 7.9.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 39448 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Strategic Insights: Trading the Dow Jones US30 Amidst Historica**Volatility**
With the Dow Jones US30 index currently sitting at all-time highs, traders are closely monitoring potential movements and preparing strategies to navigate the market's next steps. The trend remains bullish, but the formation of a new demand area around the 40,150 mark introduces intriguing possibilities for both long and short positions.
***Key Observations:***
**Current Trend:**
The Dow Jones US30 has been on an upward trajectory, reaching historical peaks.
This persistent bullish trend reflects market optimism and strong economic indicators.
**Critical Demand Area:**
A significant demand zone has emerged around the 39,950 level.
This area could serve as a crucial support level, offering potential buying opportunities if the price remains above it.
**Trading Strategy:**
**Long Positions:** Consider entering long trades above the 39,950 demand area to capitalize on continued upward momentum. This strategy aligns with the prevailing trend and leverages the support from the demand zone.
**Short Positions:** Conversely, if the price falls below the 39,950 level, it could signal a potential bearish reversal. Entering short positions below this threshold may allow traders to benefit from a possible correction or downtrend.
**Liquidity Considerations:**
As the price reaches new highs, liquidity dynamics become crucial. The market might experience significant volatility as traders take profits or as new participants enter the fray.
A sharp reaction at these levels could trigger a substantial price drop, amplifying the importance of monitoring liquidity flows.
**Upcoming Event - Jerome Powell's Speech:**
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on July 15, 2024, at 12 PM noon.
Powell’s remarks could provide critical insights into the Fed's economic outlook and monetary policy stance, influencing market sentiment and potentially triggering significant price movements.
*Conclusion:**
In summary, the Dow Jones US30 presents a promising yet cautious landscape for traders. The all-time highs and newly formed demand area around 39,950 offer a balanced approach for both long and short trades. The market's reaction to upcoming events, particularly Powell's speech, will be pivotal in shaping future trends. Traders should remain vigilant, adapt to emerging developments, and employ disciplined risk management strategies to navigate the evolving market conditions.
Dow Jones Futures Daily Pullback Buy SetUp Wealth Building TradeI will be placing a buy order as soon as Sunday Opens for a pullback on the daily chart. I will be placing my stop loss UNDER 2024's open price marked as the fat Cyan line as I don't believe price will return down there.
I will be going for the throat on this trade and will be adding all the way up to 48,500 as my target.
I will be disregarding my prior posts as I now see this is the actual price action. Very strong and getting ready to breakout to new all time highs again.
I will try to explain what it is I am seeing as best as I can.
Price has been staying up above the top third AND has been bouncing off 2024's open price with higher highs. Any time price stays above the top third, this indicates extreme strength and continuation of higher prices.
I will be risking 400-500 ticks below 2024's open price depending on how I get filled Sunday afternoon and will be targeting 49,000 area for 9,500 ticks. I will add on the way up to get as much out of this as I can so that I can buy more when it gets back down to 38,000 again for the next move up to 150,000
Dow Jones Futures CPI Long Trade 5 to 1 PotentialI am long right now with my fill at 40,012. Now that we have broken out, CPI will continue the momentum and I am targeting the next area of liquidity at 40,280. I am using a 50 tick stop and my target is 40,279 for a 5.34 to 1.
I plan on holding through the news because I don't believe price will return any lower and if it does, then I am out and I will regroup.
Bullish breakout on the menu for Dow futures?Traders should be on alert for a bullish breakout in Dow E-mini futures.
Sitting in a triangle and having found plenty of support on dips towards and below 39400 over recent weeks, the price closed marginally above downtrend resistance on Wednesday, managing to do what it was unable to on the prior three ventures above the level. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, the ducks are lining up for upside.
Should Wednesday’s high of 40067 be taken out, consider buying the break with a stop loss order below the former uptrend for protection. Resistance may be found around 40200 but it’s likely the record high 40358 will be targeted by bulls should we see a breakout. Beyond, a trip into the low 40000s could be on the cards given how long the price has been coiling in the triangle.
Thursday’s US inflation report presents a major risk event that could deliver a bull trap and/or reversal, underlining why a stop needs to be used to limit capital losses from an ugly number. A core reading of 0.25% more is unlikely to go down well for riskier asset classes. Alternatively, a figure below 0.2% will likely be cheered as it would strengthen the case for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in September.
While the Dow is not a cyclical as it once was, improved prospects for steeper bond curves and a soft economic landing should benefit financials and other economic sensitive sectors.
DS
YM - Daily charting practicestarted on the weekly - grey levels
adapted them to the daily - red color
i left those so we can see price extend beyond the daily to reach the 4hr
4hr- orange levels. were then adapted to the 1hr levels
1hr - yellow level were adapted to a 15min level
15min - turquoise color.
its clutter but its a way to illustrate how price will test a higher timeframe level, and deep dive that level with a wick. fractal patters were created on lower timeframes within the body of the higher timeframe candle. the untested levels or unmitigated FVG or whatever you call them will be tested in this manner.
lets see.
Dow Jones July NFP Range Play 5.25 to 1 Risk RewardI am expecting a spike down at NFP into the range yellow box. I don't know how deep into the box it will go and so I am forced to use a bigger stop to compensate as IF this play is to work then price cannot go below the yellow box.
After the spike down, the trade should immediately be in profit for the explosive short squeeze 450 ticks higher to take out 39,850.
All of these stacked highs are dead giveaways for a short squeeze.
I will be placing my limit buy down in the yellow box at price 39,416
I will be placing my stop loss below the yellow box at price 39,336 for 80 ticks
I will be placing my target at the stacked highs up near 39,850. I will be getting out before then at 39,830. Target 414 ticks
Dow Jones YM Futures Wednesday July 3rd Daytrading Setup LongI am looking for a continuation Long going into the double top at price target 39,844
I don't know where price will stop at during the pullback, either between the top third or the top half.
I will target 39,830 to be conservative and get out before it reverses. I don't know where the top will be.
Tomorrow will be the day before the 4th and so it also could be a chop day, I am not sure.
All I know is that I don't need to know anything to make money.
I will keep this post updated on my Live performance with my wins and losses. I am not afraid to show any of my losses as I know my win rate is 40% and I am quite wrong. I have no ego regarding this because my targets are always 3 or 4 to 1.
