#202533 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Bull flag but market is holding above the breakout price around 23800. Bears need a strong move below 23600 for more downside and if bulls stay above 23800, we can only assume sideways to up movement. I doubt we get another leg up but I have been wrong on that couple of times now. No longs for me above 23500. Only interested in a breakdown for 23400ish or 23000.
current market cycle: bull trend - peak bubble
key levels for next week: 22800 - 24100
bull case: Bulls remain in full control but a bigger pullback is expected. Until that happens, we can continue up since market is living on momentum and it’s still going strong. For a change bulls need to be trapped and that has not happened since April. Every dip buy was profitable but I do think it’s way beyond overdone and moronic to buy above 23000.
Invalidation is below 22700
bear case: Bears still do not have anything here. It doesn’t ever matter if we print 24000 or stay below 23848, until we see big bear bars closing on their lows again, this is likely going higher and bears can not hold short here where the strategy is hope. Nothing has changed last week. Bears need big red bars closing on their lows and trapping late bulls.
Invalidation is above 24100
short term: Neutral at best. Bears not doing enough and btfd is still going strong. Could easily do another test for 24100 before turning but I would not be surprised if we grind down to 23400ish and test the trend line again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: Bear trend did not start last week. Sad but ok. I am still only interested in seeing this bubble popping.
