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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Jun 2020)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Jun 2020)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Jun 2020)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Jun 2020)

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ESM2020 trade ideas

Day 17 — Trading Only S&P Futures | A+ Setup, Done by 10AMWelcome to Day 17 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was all about conviction. I spotted a rare A+ setup: X7 ES buy signals, bullish market structure, and a buy right at MOB support. That kind of alignment doesn’t happen often — so I sized up 3x my usual and went long. The trade worked perfectly, and I wrapped up the day by 10AM with +295.37, making this the fastest finish to a session I’ve ever had in this challenge. 📰 News Highlights STOCKS CLOSE HIGHER, VIX DIPS AS NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA EARNINGS LOOM 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6450 = Remain Bullish Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES (08/27): Analyses, Fundamental, SetupsPrice is consolidating under 6489 to 6495 with a firm shelf near 6483. Above 6489 on a 5-minute confirming close, bias favors continuation into 6504, 6518, then 6532. A 5-minute close back below 6483 opens rotation toward 6468, 6458, then 6453. Trade only during 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. Stand down around the listed events. Macro Docket (ET) • 07:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Source notes Wednesday 7:00 AM ET.  • 10:30 – EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release time).  • 13:00 – U.S. Treasury 5-Year Note Auction (Aug 27, 2025; size listed on TreasuryDirect).  • After the close – NVIDIA Q2 FY26 results; conference call 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT).   • Durable Goods (July) is out: headline −2.8% m/m; ex-transport +1.1% (market still digesting).  • Fed calendar: no Board-listed speech flagged for Wed at time of writing; I cannot confirm regional Fed schedules.  Key Levels • Breakout band: 6489–6495 • Line in the sand (shelf): 6483 • Support below: 6468, 6458, 6453, 6444–6448 • Upside magnets: 6504/6506, 6518–6520, 6532–6535 A++ Setup 1: Acceptance Long above 6489 • Trigger: First 5-minute close >= 6489 with follow-through (no immediate fade). • Entry: 6490–6491 (momentum on signal). • Initial SL: 6484 (about 6 pts; below shelf). • Targets: TP1 6505 (+15), TP2 6518 (+28), TP3 6532 (+42). • R:R to TP1 approx 2.5. • Management: Scale 1/2 at TP1; move to break-even only after new structure or a decisive close through TP1; then trail by last 5-minute swing or VWAP band. • Invalidation: 5-minute close back below 6483 or persistent absorption under 6495. A++ Setup 2: Shelf-Break Short below 6483 • Trigger: 5-minute close <= 6483 with clear rejection (no immediate reclaim). • Entry: 6482 (momentum on signal). • Initial SL: 6488 (about 6 pts; back inside range). • Targets: TP1 6467 (−15), TP2 6458 (−24), TP3 6453 (−29). • Short confirmation protocol: Start half size on the 5-minute break when the 15-minute trend was bullish; size to full only if a bearish 15-minute close prints within the next 3 x 5-minute bars. If within 2 x 5-minute bars there is no extension (new low) and price threatens a shelf reclaim, reduce or scratch to BE. • Invalidation: 5-minute reclaim above 6489 or obvious absorption at 6468 forming higher lows. Execution Rules (condensed) • Windows: 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. • Risk: initial stop 6–8 pts; max 2 attempts per idea; day hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R; no scalps. • News clock: no new risk within approx plus/minus 5 minutes of MBA (07:00), EIA (10:30), 5-yr auction (13:00). • Close protocol: if trading late day, adjust sizing based on NYSE MOC imbalance (sub-$500M = tiebreaker only; >= $1B = can trade with confirmation; >= $2B = allow continuation holds into the cross).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Nq & Es Premarket comment 26-08-2025Good morning everyone, Price is approaching the equilibrium level, having already entered a daily FVG. For this reason, I will be looking for potential long setups — but only if, after the 09:30 NY open, I see price finding support at this key level below the purple line. I will wait for proper confirmation before entering, in order to ensure a high-quality long trade. Wishing everyone a successful trading session. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FTAKAS
2
Nq & Es Premarket Comment 29-08-2025Good morning everyone, I continue to believe that the market maintains a bullish trend, even though we have already reached our previous targets. However, since today is Friday, a day often characterized by unusual reactions, caution is required. At the market open (09:30 NY time), I will be looking for long opportunities on Nasdaq (NQ), which is currently showing stronger bullish momentum compared to ES and YM. Price has already made a significant retracement and entered a discount zone, so my main focus will be to see whether the support level holds after the open before committing to any long positions. Wishing everyone a productive and successful session. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FTAKAS
1
ES - August 27th - Daily Trade Plan7:15am EST - Daily Trade Plan Yesterday I wrote the following: "IF, price can reclaim and clear 6453, we should be able to test 6464, above there we should target 6470, 6482, 6487, 6496, 6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it!" We cleared 6453 on the 3rd attempt from the overnight test of resistance. At 9:30am, price took out all the retail stops down to 6444 and then resumed the rally with us hitting the first 3 targets above. Overnight we are building our next base for the continued push higher with 6478-6489 as the range. We have tested 6489 2X overnight and I could see us doing the same thing as yesterday at the open, flush 6478, take out stops and rally higher. IF, price does not come lower and clears 6489, I will look for a back test opportunity to get long. 6496 is the first big resistance, I expect price to test a few times before going higher, but it doesn't have to. I always like to frame my daily possibilities of price by the following statement: IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it! IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher. Update will come out at 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
2
ES Analyses (Sep 1–5), Fundamental, Key Zones, SetupsShort holiday week. U.S. cash equities are closed Mon Sep 1 for Labor Day. ES trades a holiday schedule and then normal hours from Tue.   Key releases (ET): • Tue Sep 2, 10:00 — ISM Manufacturing (first business day).   • Thu Sep 4, 8:15 — ADP Employment Report.   • Thu Sep 4, 8:30 — Weekly jobless claims.  • Thu Sep 4, 10:00 — ISM Services (third business day).  • Fri Sep 5, 8:30 — Nonfarm Payrolls (Employment Situation).  Plan to sit out the first 10 minutes around each print. Big picture I’m treating 6512–6516 as the week’s decision zone. Acceptance above it opens 6533–6535 → 6554. Lose 6454 on a confirmed close and the door opens to 6418. While above 6418, I keep a neutral-to-bullish bias. (Levels are from my charts.) Key levels I’m trading around Overhead liquidity • 6501.25 pivot • 6512–6516 prior supply and decision zone • 6533–6535 H1 1.272 extension • 6554 H1 1.618 extension Support • 6490 continuation pivot • 6484 / 6479 micro supports • 6472 HVN shelf · 6465.25 pivot • 6456 prior low · 6454 fail-safe • Guardrail: 6418 Playbook (casual, but A++ rules still apply) 30m trend aligned, 15m momentum-on-structure, 5m close to confirm. Risk 6–8 pts. TP1 ≥15 pts. No trades during data prints. 1) Continuation LONG above 6490 Look for a 15m close above 6490, quick check that bids are holding >6484, then a 5m confirmation to enter 6489–6492. • SL: ~6485 • TP1: 6506 (+15) → scale • TP2: 6512–6516, TP3: 6533–6535 • Invalidation: 15m bearish close back under 6484 2) Rejection SHORT at 6512–6516 If we poke the zone and print a 15m bearish close <6508, I want a 5m confirm to work 6508–6514 short. • SL: 6517–6519 • TP1: 6493–6496 (+15) • TP2: 6484 → 6472, TP3: 6465 → 6456 • Invalidation: 30m acceptance >6516 3) Breakdown SHORT below 6454 If a 15m bar settles <6454 and retest fails, I’ll use 6454–6457 for entry. • SL: 6460–6462 • TP1: 6439 (+15) • TP2: 6418, TP3: 6405–6395 • Invalidation: Swift reclaim >6462 Management notes Trade windows 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. Scale half at TP1. Move stop to breakeven only after structure breaks or a 15m/30m close through TP1. I don’t add fresh longs straight into 6512–6516 unless we’ve got 30m acceptance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES Analyses, Key Zones, Setups, Bias (08/29)Fundamentals for Fri, Aug 29 (ET) • 08:30 — Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE) for July. Official BEA schedule lists this release for Aug 29, 8:30am.  • 08:30 — Advance Economic Indicators (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Retail & Wholesale Inventories) — scheduled Aug 29.  • 09:45 — Chicago PMI (Aug). Usual release time 9:45am; calendars list Aug 29.   • 10:00 — U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Aug). Institute notes next data Fri Aug 29 at 10am.  • Context — Next FOMC: Sep 16–17. Recent Fed commentary leans toward a potential cut dependent on incoming data (e.g., Waller remarks today).   Implication: 8:30 data can set the day’s bias; 9:45–10:00 can create a second impulse. Use our macro blackout (±10m) rule around these times. Structure & Bias (multi-TF snapshot) • HTF (D/4H/1H): constructive uptrend with HH/HL; price is consolidating just under overhead supply. • LTF (30m/15m/5m): Asia range formed near the highs; New-York PM printed a marginal higher high and stalled. • Working bias: Neutral-to-bullish above the pivot cluster; flips bearish only on a 15m close back through the pivot (see Zones). Key Zones (why they matter) Numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter-point when appropriate. Overhead supply / breakout gate 1. 6516.75–6523 = AS.H → NYPM.H band (resting liquidity / prior sweep zone). Acceptance above unlocks extensions. Acceptance / flip cluster (the hinge) 2) 6512.5–6516.75 = Asia range. 3) 6506.75–6508.5 (with PDH ~6507.50) = prior session highs & intraday BOS retest (hard pivot). → Hold above = constructive; lose it on a 15m bearish close = momentum shift down. Supports below (ladder) 4) ~6497 = intraday LL / demand edge. 5) ~6492 = micro shelf / HVN pivot. 6) 6480–6484 = prior NY AM low / prior swing shelf (first deeper magnet). 7) 6468–6472 = prior day range floor cluster (PDL/PMH vicinity) — next hard liquidity. Upside magnets • ~6534–6536 = 1h measured move/extension cluster. • ~6553–6556 = 30m 1.272 ext / HVN edge. • ~6579–6582 = 1.618 ext / exhaustion pocket. (All targets respect our “Hard Liquidity first” rule; then extensions.) A++ Setups (score ≥9 only) A) Breakout-Acceptance Long (primary) • Trigger: 30m close above 6516.75, then 15m MOS holds above the box; wait for a 5m confirmation (micro BOS or clean retest that doesn’t reclaim the box). • Entry zone: 6518–6520 on the retest/impulse continuation. • Initial SL: 6–8 pts (tightest of: under the 15m trigger bar or below 6512). • TPs: • TP1: +15 pts → ~6534–6536 (first hard magnet/extension). • TP2: ~6553–6556 (next HTF zone). • TP3 (runner): trail via 15m/30m closes toward ~6579–6582. • Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move SL→BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1, then trail by 15m/30m swings. • Disqualifiers: 15m closes back inside ≤6516 after trigger; macro-print within blackout; clear Liquidity-Wall ≤5 pts above entry that blocks TP1 ≥15 pts. B) Rejection → Breakdown Short (secondary) • Trigger path 1 (fade failure): Wick into 6516.75–6523 and a 15m bearish close back inside the box plus 5m confirmation (CHoCH / OB tap). • Trigger path 2 (momentum break): 15m close below 6506–6508 (PDH/NYAM.H cluster) → 5m retest failure of 6508–6510. • Entry zone: 6514–6518 (fade) or 6508–6511 (retest short). • Initial SL: 6–8 pts (above 6521 on fades; above 6516 on retests). • TPs: • TP1: ~6492–6495 (≥15 pts and a hard pivot). • TP2: ~6480–6484 (NY AM shelf). • TP3: ~6468–6472 (prior range floor); trail by 15m/30m. • Mandatory (bearish) rule: needs both 15m bearish confirmation and 5m alignment before entry (per protocol). • Disqualifiers: 30m re-acceptance above 6512.5–6516.75 after entry; macro blackout. Execution Rules (strict) • Time windows: 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET only. • Confirmations: 30m trigger → 15m MOS → 5m close; bearish trades require 15m bearish close. • Risk: SL = min(under 15m trigger bar, 6–8 pts). Daily hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R. • Targets: TP1 ≥ +15 pts at a Hard Liquidity level; front-run 1–2 pts. • No trades inside macro blackout windows or if Liquidity-Wall blocks TP1.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (S&P 500 Futures) — Outlook for Thursday, Aug 28Macro Drivers • Earnings Reports: Watch Best Buy, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Marvell, Affirm → consumer + tech sentiment drivers. Economic Data: • Q2 GDP (2nd estimate): Consensus ~3.1% YoY. Stronger print = bullish, weaker = bearish. • Weekly Jobless Claims: Key labor health indicator → surprises can shift Fed rate expectations. • Pending Home Sales (July): Forecast +0.5%. Housing often ties into rate expectations. Sentiment Risks: • NVDA earnings digested, but positioning still fragile. • Treasury yields remain high → liquidity pressure. • Political / Fed uncertainty adds headline risk. ⸻ Technical Key Levels (HTF Zone Mapping) • ATH: 6508.75 • Major Liquidity Wall: 6500 (multi-timeframe rejection zone) • Support Shelf: 6480–6483 (equilibrium & PMH) • Deeper Support: 6459 → 6450–6452 (1H/4H shelves) • Discovery Mode Fib Projections (above ATH): • 1.272 = 6554 • 1.618 = 6580 • 2.0 = 6608 ⸻ Setups for Tomorrow 1. Bullish Breakout — Discovery Mode Long • Trigger: 30m close ≥6500 + 15m MOS extension. • Entry Zone: 6500–6502. • Stop: Below 6492–6493 (tighter of bar low or 6–8 pts). • TP1: ATH 6508.75 (front-run 6507.75). • TP2: Fib 1.272 ~6554. • TP3: Fib 1.618 / 2.0 → 6580 / 6608 (runner, trail by 15m/30m structure). ⸻ 2. Bearish Breakdown — Short Setup • Trigger: 30m close ≤6483. • MOS Confirmation: 15m close <6472.75. • Entry Zone: 6479–6482. • Stop: Above 6488–6490 (or 6–8 pts). • TP1: 6459. • TP2: 6450–6452. • TP3: 6444 shelf (runner). ⸻ 3. Chop / No-Trade Zone • If ES trades inside 6483–6500 without breakout → no A++ setup. Stay sidelined.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
S&P 500 (ES1!): Short Term Sells For Longer Term Buys TargetsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 has been strong, but gave a bearish close on Friday. Looking at the Daily, it is easy to see price is retracing lower, perhaps to the +FVG, which is a great place to look for longs once contacted. Short term sells are permissible, but be mindful the HTFs are bullish. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by RT_Money
ES - August 28th - Daily Trade PlanAugust 28th - 5:50am EST Let's review yesterday's trade plan. I try to keep things as simple as possible. If you have been following me, you know that I like to frame my plan by IF statements. I posted the following yesterday: "IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it! IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher." What happened? We lost 6478, flushed to 6472, reclaimed and grinded higher into end of day. After the bell we got a massive flush and recovery of guess what? 6472 which was the daily low. I always like to highlight the current session levels in red with other key levels in Yellow. You can pull up a 30 min chart and see that we have 3 key levels that need to hold today. Those levels are - 6472, 6485, 6496. Any flush and reclaim of these levels, should take us higher and continue up our target levels for the week of 6522, 6547. Below 6460 and we will need to test 6453, 6430 being the weekly low in purple. Today is pretty simple, flush and recover one of the 3 levels I mentioned above, and we keep going higher. I will say that 6472 has been tested 3X and I am not sure it will hold next time. Be careful if we are selling hard into this area. Ideally, we flush down to 6490-93, reclaim 6496 and head higher! I am off my desk travelling this afternoon and will try to provide an update when I can.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
ES-Weekly Trading Plan - September 1st-5thSaturday August 30th - 10:41am EST We have a short week with futures open for half day on Monday due to USA Labor Day Holiday. I expect light volume on Monday with price not telling us much until we see institutions at their desks on Tuesday. I said last week the following - (You can also see this on the related publication section) "When you look at the 2hr, 4hr, 8hr chart and zoom out, you can see that the trend is up and that we will probably need to digest Friday's rally and most likely chop around ideally above 6468, 6452 levels with 6429 being the lowest level we would want to test. Then we can retest the 6508 level and continue higher this week with 6522, 6547 my main targets with 6596 if bulls really want it. IF, we lose 6369, my lean is that we will continue lower and a new market trend could be starting to unfold with 6245 the big area for us to hold to stay bullish in the bigger picture." Recap of last week - 6430 was the low for the week (never get close to 6369) that got bought up on Sunday evening and we rallied up to the 6522 targets by Thursday. My daily trade plan kept us moving higher all week. I did not post Thursday night/Friday as I was off my desk. We are still in a bullish uptrend and until 6369 is lost, we must focus on trend. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What is the plan for this week? Since Monday is a short session and will be low volume, I will not be trading and will enjoy time with my family. Ideally, I am looking for a pullback down to the 6431 or tag the white trend line and recover the next level above. Due to low volume on Monday, I do not expect us to get much higher than 6496 in the Monday session, with some headline taking us down Tuesday to 6431 or the white trend line (I will have better idea after the close on Monday) and will have more details in my daily trade plan for Tuesday.) I do believe we can still rally up to 6547, 6563+ this week, but IF, we lose the 6369 level, that would be a big blow to bulls, and it would need to be sharp reclaim back inside the white trendline to keep momentum. Overall, we should continue up the levels and get to new highs by end of the week. IF, we lose 6369, I will wait for failed breakdowns below at the levels in Yellow. Remember that when ES wants to sell off, it's better to get out the way and let it build a new base. We had buyers step in on Friday at 6455, so any flush and reclaim of that level Monday would be a good setup. Tuesday Daily Trade Plan will come out after the close on Monday or before the 6pm EST evening session open.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
S&P 500 (ES) Nearing Diagonal Wave 5 CompletionOn August 2, the S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ES) pulled back to 6239.50, marking the low of wave 4. Wave 5, now underway, is unfolding as a five-wave diagonal pattern. A defining trait of a diagonal is the overlap between wave ((i)) and wave ((iv)) within its internal structure. From the wave 4 low, wave ((i)) peaked at 6508.75, followed by a retreat to 6362.75, concluding wave ((ii)). The index then resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((iii)), which itself contains a five-wave subdivision. From wave ((ii)), wave (i) reached 6424.25, and a brief dip to 6364 completed wave (ii). The index climbed again in wave (iii) to 6496.25, with a subsequent pullback in wave (iv) ending at 6430.75. The final leg, wave (v), concluded at 6523, completing wave ((iii)). Wave ((iv)) then unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From wave ((iii)), wave (a) dropped to 6488.75, wave (b) rallied to 6505.75, and wave (c) declined to 6455.5, finalizing wave ((iv)). In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 6363 holds, any dips should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, setting the stage for further upside. This outlook supports continued bullish momentum in the index.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Day 20 — Trading Only S&P Futures + Monthly resultsWelcome to Day 20 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today’s session was all about patience and letting levels do the work. I started with the X3DD sell signal, but the move was too fast to size in big. Instead, I waited for price to break under 6485 (yesterday’s level) and added a couple of short positions. Later, I shifted focus to the 6463 bottom support — went long there a few times and those trades worked out great. By holding discipline and repeatedly trading around these levels, I closed the day with +365.28. 📌 This video is going up a little late — I’ve also asked ChatGPT to analyze my last month of trading data to highlight win rates, patterns, and improvements. That deeper analysis is also in the video. Here's the prompt "I have trade data from the last month that I’d like you to analyze. Please perform a detailed data analysis and highlight interesting insights, such as patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and potential improvements in my trading approach. A few important notes about my strategy and data: Risk/Reward: I typically trade using a 2x risk to 1x reward setup. This gives me more flexibility to turn trades into winners and avoid stop-loss hunts. Please calculate the win rate I need to achieve to be profitable with this risk/reward ratio. Trade Grouping: My trade count may appear higher than it actually is because sometimes I enter with multiple contracts and scale out at different price levels. If you see trades with the same entry or exit prices, please group them as a single trade. Analysis Goals: Show win rate, average profit/loss, risk-adjusted return, and drawdowns. Identify what worked well and what didn’t. Highlight any tendencies or biases (e.g., time of day, entry type, asset type). Suggest improvements based on the data. Please make the analysis as practical and data-driven as possible." 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6480 = Flip Bullish Below 6460 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES - August 26th - Daily Trade Plan6:25am EST - Daily Trade Plan I started off this week posting the following: "What is the plan for this week? When you look at the 2hr, 4hr, 8hr chart and zoom out, you can see that the trend is up and that we will probably need to digest Friday's rally and most likely chop around ideally above 6468, 6452 levels with 6429 being the lowest level we would want to test. Then we can retest the 6508 level and continue higher this week with 6522, 6547 my main targets with 6596 if bulls really want it. IF, we lose 6369, my lean is that we will continue lower and a new market trend could be starting to unfold with 6245 the big area for us to hold to stay bullish in the bigger picture." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Last night we touched 6430.75 and rallied 20pts to 6453 which we tested and rejected this level 2x and are now coming into the 3rd test of the level. The overnight session high was 6464 and low was 6430.25. All levels marked in yellow are support/resistance levels we want to wait for price to flush and recover to enter or if we can recover a level above, back test and enter for a move higher. IF, price can reclaim and clear 6453, we should be able to test 6464, above there we should target 6470, 6482, 6487, 6496, 6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it! IF, price loses 6430 and cannot reclaim then we will move down the levels with 6411, 6399 and 6385 as the first levels we can look for a reclaim and move back to retest the 6430 level. I will post an update around 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - September 2nd - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 1st - 5:55pm EST - Overnight Session & Daily Trade Plan We have a short week with volume picking up moving forward into a seasonally down period. I said on the weekly plan that "Due to low volume on Monday, I do not expect us to get much higher than 6496 in the Monday session, with some headline taking us down Tuesday to 6431 area". Last night's session our high was 6491.50 and we retested Friday's low around 6459.50. I have put in white a potential bear flag that could continue higher to the 6496.50 level. IF, price does not clear 6505 and hold, we will need to retest the levels below and that could be 6472, 6453 for us to flush and reclaim. Below 6459 and we will need to most likely get out the way and let price flush a few levels, reclaim and back test the 6455-59 zone. Support levels in yellow that we could flush and reclaim to push higher are as follows: 6455-59, 6450, 6437-40, 6430, 6419, 6411. I believe that 6430 (Last week's low) will give us a good reaction and then 6411 which is the area we broke out from Friday August 22nd. I expect us to have a choppy overnight session with tomorrow's NYSE open giving us direction and hopefully breaking out of this choppy range between 6455- 6496. I am still bullish above 6390, but a break below this level would be a warning to the current trend. I will provide an update tomorrow am around 8:30am EST. Check out my Weekly Trade plan in the related publication section to the right.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 # 🚀 ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 🎯 (1:2 R\:R) ### 📝 Market Bias * **Conditional Bullish** into US open. * Higher-timeframe trend strong (price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs). * **BUT** intraday momentum still mixed (MACD bearish) + thin overnight liquidity. 👉 **Trade ONLY if liquidity & momentum confirm at open.** --- ### 🎯 Trade Idea **Setup:** Conditional LONG (market open only) * 📍 **Entry:** 6462.25 (acceptable range 6455 – 6475) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6415.15 (0.75 × ATR = 47.10 pts) * 💰 **Take Profit:** 6556.45 (2 × stop = 94.20 pts) * ⚖️ **Risk/Reward:** 1 : 2 * 💪 **Confidence:** 60% **Risk/Reward per Contract:** * ❌ Risk = \$2,355 * ✅ Reward = \$4,710 --- ### 📊 Position Sizing * Formula: `contracts = floor((account_size × risk%) / (stop_pts × $50))` * Example: * \$100k acct @ 2% risk → 0 contracts (use micro/mini). * \$200k acct → 1 contract. * \$250k acct → 2 contracts. --- ### 📈 Scale & Exits * Take **50% profit @ 6509.35** (1× stop). * Hold rest to **6556.45 TP**. * Move stop to breakeven after scaling. --- ### ⚠️ Key Risks * Very thin overnight liquidity → slippage risk. * MACD still bearish; must improve at open. * Price near 20-day highs → upside limited. * Event/headline risk at open. --- ### ✅ Pre-Conditions (MUST at Open) * Strong liquidity/volume vs overnight. * Price holds above SMA10 & SMA20. * Preferable: MACD histogram improves in 15–30 mins. ❌ If conditions fail → NO TRADE. --- ### 📌 Trade JSON (For Algo/Notes) ```json { "instrument": "ES", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 6462.25, "stop_loss": 6415.15, "take_profit": 6556.45, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.60, "entry_timing": "market_open", "point_value": 50, "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-25 15:47:27" } ``` --- ### 🔖 Hashtags \#ES #SP500 #FuturesTrading #OptionsTrading #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TradeSetup #MarketOpen #RiskReward #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #StockMarket #TradingSignals #ScalpSetup
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - August 25th - 29thIn last week's plan I wrote the following " Plan for next week is that we need to hold 6390, 6369. for us to continue higher. Ideally, we do not lose 6452 with 6426 being the breakout and 6390 the low of the week." We spent the first 2 days range bound and lost 6452 on Tuesday around 10am and flushed down and institutions started to buy at the 6369 level on Wednesday-Friday in anticipation of the 10am Jackson Hole meeting. I wrote on Friday at 4:30am EST - "I missed the overnight flush of yesterday afternoon 6370 low (2:30am) and now price is coming into the overnight session resistance of 6399.25. I need to identify either a move to retest 6412, back test 6399 and then buy on the support for a move to test 6420. Ideally, we could sell off back to the 6364 level or even better 6350, scare retail investors and then wait for a reclaim of 6364 to get back in and ride up." What did price do when it reclaimed the 6399 level? It built a nice bull flag between 6399-6407 from 4:30am-9:30am and instead of flushing one more time, institutions bought heavily at 10am and we rallied up the levels and then started to build a structure for the next move. What is the plan for this week? When you look at the 2hr, 4hr, 8hr chart and zoom out, you can see that the trend is up and that we will probably need to digest Friday's rally and most likely chop around ideally above 6468, 6452 levels with 6429 being the lowest level we would want to test. Then we can retest the 6508 level and continue higher this week with 6522, 6547 my main targets with 6596 if bulls really want it. IF, we lose 6369, my lean is that we will continue lower and a new market trend could be starting to unfold with 6245 the big area for us to hold to stay bullish in the bigger picture. I will be posting my Daily Trade Plan for Monday before the session open.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618