Can the upward momentum be maintained?Can the upward momentum be maintained in the S&P 500 with PPI being announced on Friday going into a holiday weekend? The bias is still for the market to move higher.02:16by DanGramza2
ID: 2024 - 00902.07.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 163DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. Short Strikes DELTA -13 Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 008 01.31.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 170DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced condor structure. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) delta 25 and a PCS (put credit spread) delta 13. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00701.16.2024 3rd official trade of 2024 executed. This trade is the next element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry today at 157 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00601.10.2024 2ndt official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 1st element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 161 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00501.04.2024 1st official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 5rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 134 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 1
ID: 2024 - 00312.18.2023 3rd trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 3rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 151 DTE. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Element #2 (ID: 2024 - 002) will be sacrificed as the black swan hedge with GTC order placed to cover one of the short strikes (if necessary). Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00212.12.2023 2ndt trade of 2024 executed today. This trade will have ZERO probability of hitting target profit before 1.1.2024, therefore no hesitation opening today. Trade entry at 157 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy once/week until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00112.8.2023 1st trade of 2024 executed today. This trade will have ZERO probability of hitting target profit before 1.1.2024, therefore no hesitation opening today. Trade entry at 161 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy once/week until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
All technical analysis tools say the same thingPrice moving up but if you check daily time frame you can see that every time red candlestick show up volume is significantly higher than green candlestick meaning selling pressure is already come in market for awhile market breadth show bearish divergence that mean many stock in S&P500 is going down but the reason ES index moving up is big cap stock is carry the index super classic momentum indicator also clearly show that price moving up with not strong momentum in advance cycle indictor such as Fisher transform also show bearish divergence also in big picture show clear structure of Elliot wave that S&P500 on 5th wave also also outside market sentiment smart money and very nig guy such as Mark zuckerberg, Tim Cook partially sold their big lot stock also also also COT report show that open interest number is not moving up strongly anymore I think this is the best bet with 4RR I using daily time frame candle stick evening star candle pattern confirm this entry Shortby tofinse0
02/15 Pre market planGetting back to markets today. we have a supply zone sitting 5019 - 5028 the price its rejecting there, but i would like to see a break under 5004 to play shorts targeting 4986 4980. lets see the open. open to new levels that forms during the day.by SrSovi0
My new #1 S&P 500 chart to all who may be interested.Always looking to improve...This is my new #1 MES1! chart that I am using. It uses 4 TV indicators as shown with default configuration and my old favorite shown as "DAP 2xTSL S" which is actually just two copies of TV "Accurate Swing Trading System - Ceyhun". My fingers are always crossed. Trade at your own risk!Longby anotherDAPTrader1
2/15 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Economic Projections: Rosenberg's Recession Warning: Forecasts an 85% chance of a recession in 2024, highlighting financial conditions and the yield curve as critical indicators. Global Economic Outlook: Tight Monetary Policy Impact: The World Economic Situation and Prospects report underscores the impact of tight monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty on global growth. Japan's Economic Status: Shift in Global Rankings: Japan's economy contracted, marking a technical recession and positioning it as the world's fourth-largest economy. Stock Market Movements: Market Optimism vs. Volatility: Despite recent gains, there's caution over volatility and market corrections tied to central bank actions. Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin's Resurgence: A significant recovery for Bitcoin, reflecting renewed investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. Corporate Earnings and Job Cuts: Mixed Corporate Sentiment: A strong earnings season faces pressure from potential rate cut delays and job cuts in response to economic conditions. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Central Bank Challenges: Inflation data has led to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline, impacting markets and treasury yields. Geopolitical Tensions: Stability Concerns: Ongoing conflicts and tensions underscore the importance of geopolitical stability for economic confidence. 📈 Trading Plan for Thursday: Support Levels to Watch: Key Supports: 5010, 4998-5000, and 4984, serving as crucial points for maintaining current market stability or signaling potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Critical Resistances: 5018 and 5034-36, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of potential shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: Post-Inflation Data: The unexpected inflation report necessitates a cautious trading approach, with emphasis on navigating potential volatility. Bull Case: Monitoring the market's ability to maintain above 5010 and potentially reclaim key resistance levels for a continued rally. Bear Case: Preparation for a downward trend should key support levels, particularly 4998-5000, fail to hold, signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market volatility following economic data releases. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.Shortby spytradingpro552
ES overnight Price Action ReviewGoing over the price Action and levels for ES overnight till now. game plan for today and what we'll be looking for. Always know where you'll get out if you're wrong. We ARe Risk Managers.Long02:58by BobbyS8130
Increasing retail salesIf the retail sales report on Thursday strengthens, the expectation would be an increase in the S&P 500 because it implies a resiliency in consumer spending which represents approximately 70% of the US GDP.01:34by DanGramza2
S&P 500 Market Update - Fibonacci Harmonic PatternTeam - I took the Fibonacci Dragon Pattern long on todays DIP Up over 1400 now moving stop loss to break even - RISK FREE TRADE NOW DROP A LIKE and I will post more of these setupsLongby tradingwarzoneUpdated 5