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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2017)

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ES1 - Can A Fartcoin Predict A FOMC CorrectionThis is not a high certainty call but there are warning in lower dominance meme coins that may perhaps be signalling bearish action in the crypto that may be part of a canon to signal bearish action post FOMC. So, a speculative call, but I have adjusted risk based on this. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dRends35
7
From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs). However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors. On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing. In short: The market is caught between two opposing forces: The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth). This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings. What is the Market Doing? Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion. Current price action shows the market compressing between: 6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL 6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up. The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key line in the sand (LIS) this week: → 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement Bullish Scenario If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward: 6874.50 — previous week's VPOC 6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high Anticipate responsive sellers in this area. However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation. Bearish Scenario If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback: First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward: 6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low 6504 — previous month's low (deeper target) This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively. Neutral / Compression Scenario If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume: Expect two-way rotational trade Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts Conclusion As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts. As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
12
S&P Futures Trading Day 83 — Riding the Trendline: Bearish ThesiEnded the day +$250 trading S&P Futures. Today was a textbook session where the morning analysis played out perfectly. My bearish thesis was strong right out of the gate, based on the price being under the trendline and confirming the bearish market structure. I opened my short positions at the open and set a crucial batch of orders at the 2-hour MOB. The market played out exactly as anticipated, delivering a clean profit day. It's always satisfying when the planning, structure, and execution align this well. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:30 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) (Assuming Yes, aligning with thesis) ✅ 10:00 AM — VXAlgo NQ X3DP Buy Signal (Assuming No, as it's a Buy signal in a Bearish Market) Yes 1:30 PM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal (Assuming Yes, marking the low) ✅ 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Fri (Dec 12)CONFIRMED EVENTS - FRI 12/12 (ET) 13:00 - Baker Hughes U.S. rig count 15:30 - CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) release (usual time) Theme risk: liquidity headlines remain in play with the Fed starting reserve-management T-bill buying on 12/12 (not a data print, but worth respecting). Market Analysis: Pre-Market Overview As we approach the market open, the ES is currently positioned near the main pivot point at 6896.50 (Y-POC). Overnight trading saw a rise to the 6911.75-6912.50 range, but prices have since retraced back below a critical resistance zone at 6908.50-6909.25, which includes the year’s value area high (Y-VAH) and the previous day’s high (PDH). This dynamic suggests a cautious trading atmosphere characterized by “tight range first, trend second,” unless we witness a definitive reclaim above this resistance. When ES gets this tight, it usually means liquidity is being packed for a pop (either direction). The trap is overtrading inside the middle of the box. Right now the clean box is: • Premium zone: 6900.75 then 6908.50-6909.25 • Bottom zone: 6892.00 then 6889.75 Key Resistance Levels: - 6900.75: Asia session low - 6908.50-6909.25: Significant resistance from Y-VAH and PDH - 6911.75-6912.50: Upper threshold to watch If buyers can maintain a position above 6909.25 for 15 minutes, it may set the stage for a rally towards 6922.25, aligning with prior closing levels. Key Support Levels: - 6892.00: London session low - 6891.25: Overnight high - 6884.75: Further potential support - 6878.00: Continued downside target - 6866.50: Year’s value area low (Y-VAL) A decisive move below 6892.00 could trigger a morning pullback towards the 6884.75-6878.00 zone, with 6866.50 acting as a deeper support reference. Today’s market activity will likely be influenced by developments in the semiconductor sector. Broadcom is placing pressure on the AI space due to concerns over margins, while Nvidia's outlook is being scrutinized in light of recent China-related headlines. Traders should brace for increased volatility around the 6900 and 6909 levels as movements in semiconductor stocks unfold. The only significant intraday economic release scheduled is the Baker Hughes rig count, expected at 1:00 PM ET. Investors should also note that larger US economic data releases are anticipated next week, following a backlog caused by the recent government shutdown. A++ SETUP 1 - REJECTION FADE (SHORT) from 6911.75-6915.50 15m pushes above 6911.75/6915.50 and closes back below 6909.25 - then 5m retest fails - then 1m first pullback gives LH. Entry: 6909.75-6911.25 Hard SL: 6916.25 (above the rejection wick) TP1: 6896.50 TP2: 6884.75 TP3: 6878.00 A++ SETUP 2 - ACCEPTANCE CONTINUATION (LONG) above 6922.25 15m full-body close above 6922.25 - then 5m pullback holds 6915.50-6911.75 and re-closes up - then 1m HL to enter. Entry: 6916.00-6918.00 (on the hold) Hard SL: 6908.25 (below the hold + back under PDH/Y-VAH area) TP1: 6934.00 TP2: 6946.50 TP3: 6976.75 Good Luck
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
3
ES - December 11th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 11th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had an explosive Fed afternoon but ultimately have still not broken out of the range we have been for weeks. Overnight we lost nearly 100pts and I said on my late day note that price "should not lose 6885 if this is going to move higher in the overnight session". We started moving lower at the open and found a bottom at 10pm around 6817. Remember yesterday's low was 6830 and since we bounced at 6817, we built a very nice flag between 6828-6840 range. This finally broke out after the European open and is currently building another flag between 6848-6857 as I type this post. We should clear these 6857 levels and continue to back test up the levels with 6872 being a major resistance. One key point I want to make is that the reason I typically only have 3-4 key levels to trade is because those are the levels that institutions are buying and everything in-between is noise. If you are unable to be patient for the key levels, you will lose more than you win. 6830 was yesterday's low and just like our session yesterday we got 3-4 opportunities at the 6834 level that produced some nice bounces and finally a nice move to test the 6904 top of the range. Overnight the reclaim of yesterday's low was 6830 and we held that level building a nice base for hours. This shows you the power of the key levels I have identified. 6818 was the first big level down and we bounced right at it and then reclaimed the daily low from yesterday. You can look at my chart from yesterday and see the levels and how they have been respected for over 24hrs. You can probably even look at Mondays post and see the exact same levels being respected. This is not guessing, it is understanding where institutions buy and where you need to be focused on getting points. Not all levels are the same! Focus on the Key Levels and save your capital from losing by trading between the levels! We are currently still in an active failed breakdown with the reclaim of 6830 earlier this am. This targets price to continue up the levels with us most likely retesting 6872. If we do not get a retest of 6830, we might be able to get a flush of 6848 and a reclaim there. Outside of this I would focus on the key levels below. Key Level Today - 1. 6848 Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6830 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 3. 6817 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 4. 6801 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 5. 6790 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) IF price does flush lower, I would be patient and let price build a base at or below one of the key levels and wait for price to show that it wants to hold above that level. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
SP500 Remains Bullish After The FED MeetingS&P 500 has made a very nice retracement recently; in fact for almost the whole November we have seen a pullback of around 5 to 6%, which is quite a lot for the S&P 500, and what is really important is that the market has stopped around the 6500 area, which basically goes back to October 10th when we saw a massive sell-off on that Friday when Trump threatened with new tariffs on China. But afterwards, as you can see, the market recovered, so it looks like a very beautiful rebound from that zone with impulsive characteristics, even beyond the diagonal and trendline resistance lines. This likely confirms that bulls are ready to resume higher into a potential fifth wave, which can be made by a new lower-degree five-wave bullish cycle. Ideally, new trend will resume soon after the current setback that can be flat in wave 2, so be aware of a bullish continuation into all-time highs and 7k are, possibly still this month.  After the FED meeting last week, we can see it making an irregular flat correction in wave (2) that can find the support at 6800 area, so soon be aware of a bullish resumption within wave (3).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ew-forecast
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 16th) As we head into Tuesday, ES is showing signs of structural weakness following a significant sell-off, culminating in a late dip into the 6845-6840 demand zone. The prevailing trend appears to be downward as long as prices remain beneath the resistance range of 6863-6874. However, the 6845-6840 support still has the potential to trigger a rebound. Traders should anticipate the most decisive price action around major data releases, followed by a phased, level-to-level approach in trading strategy. EVENTS THAT CAN MOVE ES (ET) 2:00am UK labor data 3:15am-5:00am Eurozone PMI batch + ZEW sentiment window 8:30am US jobs data bundle + Retail Sales + Earnings + Unemployment 9:45am US Flash PMI 10:00am Business Inventories 4:30pm API oil stats (can hit energy tone into the close) Market Outlook: NY Session Forecast In the upcoming New York trading session, we anticipate a period of consolidation likely to include a modest rebound attempt. However, this upside movement is expected to face resistance within the range of 6859 and 6863-6874. Should sellers maintain pressure and keep prices below 6863 as we head into the session, we could see a subsequent pullback towards the 6845-6840 range, followed by a potential drop to 6825. On the bullish side, if the market can decisively reclaim and sustain levels above 6874, we might open the door for a rally towards 6902 and possibly 6923. Conversely, a clear breach below 6840 that lacks immediate recovery signals strengthens the bearish outlook, targeting 6825 initially, with the potential for a further decline to 6800-6790. ES Short (A++) - Sell 6863-6874 - SL 6876.50 - TP1 6845-6840 TP2 6825 TP3 6800-6790 Key zones Support - 6845-6840, 6825, 6800-6790 Resistance - 6851-6859, 6863-6874, 6902, 6923-6936 A++ Setup 1 - Short (ceiling fade) Entry - Sell 6863-6866 after a rejection from 6863-6874 Stop - 6876.50 (above the rejection high) TP1 - 6845-6840 TP2 - 6825 TP3 - 6800-6790 ES Long (A++) - Buy 6825 reclaim - SL 6814.25 - TP1 6863 TP2 6902 TP3 6923 A++ Setup 2 - Long (flush then reclaim) Entry - Buy 6825-6828 only after price reclaims and holds above 6825 Stop - 6814.25 (below the flush low) TP1 - 6863 TP2 - 6902 TP3 - 6923 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-Ahead Analysis (Dec 15-19, 2025)Market Overview: The Week Ahead This week marks a pivotal moment for the markets as focus shifts from narratives to hard data. Key economic indicators will be released, including U.S. jobs figures on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, both scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Additionally, the Bank of Japan will convene on December 18-19, with a consensus anticipating a 25 basis point hike, bringing rates up to 0.75%. In a week filled with significant releases, we often see market behavior akin to a compressed spring - characterized by volatility as traders await fresh data, followed by a rapid price adjustment once new information emerges. Historically, the most lucrative trading opportunities materialize at the edges of established price ranges, rather than in the middle. Technical Analysis: Trading Structure Weekly Outlook The broader market structure remains constructive, although current trading suggests we may be nearing what appears to be a “ceiling zone” following a recent advance. This level could facilitate rapid upside movements, albeit sustained acceptance is proving more challenging. Notably, momentum is easing rather than collapsing. Daily Perspective The daily market profile indicates a potential recovery phase following significant liquidation. Buyers seem to be regrouping to establish a solid base, while sellers are actively defending against upside pressures. This dynamic often results in pronounced intra-day fluctuations but tends to exhibit limited follow-through absent a triggering catalyst. 4-Hour Analysis Recent trading patterns align with a classic sequence: an initial impulse downward followed by a corrective consolidation. In such market conditions, rallies hitting resistance levels are often mere tests rather than true breakouts until prices can convincingly maintain levels above key ceilings. On an intraday basis, the market is currently in a tight range above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), frequently encountering resistance at the same overhead levels. This setup typically leads to one of two outcomes: either a pop-and-fail at resistance which presents a clear short opportunity or a flush-and-reclaim at support offering a viable entry for longs. Investors should remain alert for market responses to the upcoming economic data, as this will likely set the tone for price movements in the days ahead. Risk Pricing Analysis: Current Market Sentiment As we assess the current market landscape, it's clear that we are not in a state of panic; however, there are signs that market participants are pricing for potential tail risks. The VIX spot index stands at 15.74 as of December 12, indicating a moderate level of volatility expectations. Similarly, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of interest rates, is at 69.25 on the same date, reflecting some instability in that realm. In credit markets, we see a High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of 2.88 on December 11, suggesting that conditions remain orderly despite the slight increase in risk premiums. Notably, the SKEW index is currently at 153.59, indicating that crash insurance is priced considerably rich compared to historical norms, signaling investor concerns about downside risk. The put/call ratio is at 0.91 with a 10-day moving average of 0.86, which does not indicate extreme levels of fear among traders. Additionally, market breadth reflects a somewhat subdued environment, with 221 advancing stocks versus 280 declining stocks on December 12. While this does not signify outright capitulation, it suggests that overall market strength is lacking. In summary, the prevailing market conditions appear to favor sharp reactions to new catalysts, with the expectation of mean-reversion unless volatility in credit and rates begins to escalate. The catalyst calendar that can flip the trend Tuesday Dec 16 - 08:30 ET US Employment Situation for November is scheduled for release. Thursday Dec 18 - 08:30 ET US CPI for November is scheduled for release, plus Real Earnings. Important nuance for this CPI Because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the CPI release has documented limitations (missing October data prevents some 1-month changes from being published). That can widen the interpretation range and produce bigger price swings than a normal CPI day. Thursday Dec 18 (global central banks) • BoE is widely expected to cut 25 bp to 3.75%. • ECB is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2% next week. BOJ Dec 18-19 Baseline expectation is a 25 bp hike from 0.50% to 0.75%, with guidance as the bigger lever. **Why the Bank of Japan Influences U.S. Stocks: An Analytical Perspective** The Bank of Japan (BOJ) functions as a global “funding thermostat.” When its monetary policy is anchored near zero, it indirectly fosters a stable environment for risk assets globally, as funding remains inexpensive and reliable. Conversely, tightening measures from the BOJ can ripple through financial markets, impacting not only Japan but also the broader global financial system. Here’s a breakdown of how BOJ actions affect U.S. stock indices: 1. Yen Channel (Risk Appetite): A rate hike or hawkish signals from the BOJ typically strengthen the Japanese yen. A stronger yen can compel investors to trim risk exposure in their portfolios, especially in positions sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuations and funding costs. This de-risking effect often hits high-beta equities first, leading to notable adjustments in U.S. markets. 2. Global Discount-Rate Channel (Valuations): As Japanese yields rise and global term premiums stabilize, the discount rate applied to U.S. equities tends to increase. This scenario generally poses challenges for long-duration equities, particularly growth-oriented stocks. A decline in this growth-heavy leadership can drag down the overall index, even amid a stable economic backdrop. 3. Cross-Border Flow and Hedging Channel (Subtle Pressure): Japan is a significant investor in foreign assets (especially US). Changes in domestic yields can alter the appeal of these foreign investments and the associated hedging costs. It’s not necessary to witness a dramatic repatriation for market movements to occur; even modest reallocations, coupled with adjustments in hedging strategies, can tighten financial conditions incrementally. 4. Timing Channel (Gaps): The BOJ typically makes its announcements during U.S. off-hours, heightening the likelihood of gaps in futures trading (like the E-mini S&P 500). Such gaps can disrupt typical intraday trading patterns, forcing traders to navigate wider risk parameters as they react to fresh information. Practical Implications: A surprise hawkish stance from the BOJ increases the odds of the E-mini S&P 500 testing lower support levels initially (S2 followed by S3/S4). Conversely, if the BOJ’s communication aligns with market expectations and is accompanied by a calm demeanor, the resultant market reaction may function as a temporary impetus, quickly yielding the spotlight back to upcoming U.S. jobs data and CPI readings. Geopolitics and Inflation: Key Insights for the Week Ahead This week, energy risk has resurfaced on the market’s radar. The U.S. seizure of the Venezuelan oil tanker M/T Skipper, accompanied by intensified enforcement actions, has disrupted Venezuelan export flows and sparked increased discussions about potential supply disruptions. These developments are crucial, as headlines related to oil tend to boost inflation expectations, particularly just before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The situation in the Middle East remains precarious, with ongoing developments regarding the stability of a ceasefire in Gaza heightening sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. This uncertainty adds an additional layer of complexity to market dynamics. Meanwhile, the normalization of shipping routes is unfolding at a sluggish pace. A return to operations in the Suez/Red Sea lanes is expected to be a gradual process, with estimates suggesting a 60-90 day transition period once it officially commences. On the economic front, the tone surrounding China’s growth appears to be softening. Recent figures show November industrial output rising by 4.8% year-over-year and retail sales increasing by just 1.3% year-over-year, indicating a weakening momentum in demand. Analysts will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could significantly influence market trends and inflation forecasts in the near term. Navigating NY Sessions with Precision In analyzing the upcoming New York trading sessions, it’s crucial to establish a clear scenario map that demarcates potential trading paths based on market behavior around key data releases. The most probable trading scenario is expected to involve two-way trades within established price shelves, characterized by potentially sharp price movements during the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases. Historically, such movements have a tendency to mean-revert towards the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control (POC) unless the incoming data significantly deviates from market expectations. For traders anticipating a bearish extension, key triggers include sustained price acceptance below 6828.50, the Yearly Point of Control (Y-POC), followed by failure to reclaim 6810.50 (Yearly Value Area Low). Acceptance below 6805.00 the previous day’s low would solidify this bearish outlook. In this scenario, any rallies are likely to be viewed as opportunities to “sell the bounce” until a market reclaim signifies strength. Conversely, a bullish surprise may unfold if prices hold above 6850.00, particularly post-data release. A reclaim of the 6889.50 to 6896.25 range, establishing it as a support floor, could trigger a short squeeze, pushing prices towards 6903.00 and subsequently 6915.50. This bullish path would be contingent on genuine acceptance above these levels. Trading Execution Strategy To navigate these scenarios effectively, traders should focus on optimal execution windows during the New York AM session from 09:30 to 11:00, and in the PM session from 13:30 to 16:00. It’s advisable to treat the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases as distinct trading regimes; traders should observe initial market impulses before seeking to capitalize on subsequent moves from established price shelves. Risk management is paramount. A pass-fail gate is established whereby the first take profit (TP1) should be positioned at a minimum of 2.0 times the risk from the predefined stop, ideally anchored to a 15-minute candle wick or market structure. Limit trading attempts to two per level per session, implementing daily guardrails to exit positions at a loss of -2R and securing profits at +3R. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels for Thu (Dec 11th)The recent market decline has evolved into a significant liquidation wave rather than a standard pullback. Following the FOMC's interest rate cut and Jerome Powell's cautious commentary, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) initially surged to a post-Fed high around 6,908 but then experienced a sharp reversal. The most recent four-hour candle has pushed prices below the prior higher low between 6,835 and 6,840, accompanied by increased trading volume, signaling a definitive break in the short-term market structure. Although the broader daily trend technically remains upward, the four-hour timeframe has shifted from a consistent upward trajectory to a re-evaluation of prices within the prevailing range. The immediate focal point is now the breached support band of 6,835 to 6,845. Sustaining levels below this range suggests that sellers are firmly in control, potentially steering the market toward the one-hour extension bands around 6,820 to 6,810, and possibly deeper into the 6,800 to 6,780 range. From a trend and structural perspective, the four-hour chart has registered a new lower low beneath the previous swing base, effectively ending the sequence of higher lows that supported the market’s advance since late November. Meanwhile, the one-hour chart indicates a downward trend characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with the price approaching the 1.272 to 1.618 extension levels, approximately at 6,820 and 6,810, exhibiting strong momentum. Unless ES can reclaim and sustain levels above the broken 6,835 to 6,845 band, the short-term outlook remains decidedly bearish. The primary catalyst for today's market movement is clear: the Federal Reserve has opted for a modest interest rate reduction while signaling a careful, data-dependent path for future easing. Given that equity indices had been trading at elevated levels anticipating a more dovish stance, the Fed's communication has prompted a necessary recalibration. Today's trading session illustrates this shift, with both the E-mini S&P (ES) and E-mini Nasdaq (NQ) experiencing a concurrent decline, effectively erasing the gains observed following the recent FOMC meeting. Overnight Market Forecast As the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) continues to trade within the critical range of 6,835 to 6,845, the prevailing outlook remains bearish. Base Case Scenario: Should the ES maintain its trajectory downward, we anticipate a gradual decline towards the S1 support level at 6,820 - 6,810. A decisive hourly close below 6,810 would bring S2 into play, targeting the 6,800 - 6,780 range. Should the selling pressure persist, the market may extend its reach into the broader 6,760 - 6,733 4-hour extension band in the coming sessions. Conversely, if buyers successfully defend the 6,820 - 6,810 levels and tomorrow's economic data proves favorable, we are likely to see a reactionary bounce towards the 6,835 - 6,845 resistance zone. This area will become crucial: a rejection here would likely signal the onset of another leg down, while a firm reclaim and a 4-hour close above 6,845 could indicate that the recent selloff is merely part of a larger trading range, rather than signaling a complete trend reversal. Directional Bias: In the short term, the sentiment remains bearish below the 6,835 - 6,845 range, with key downside targets at 6,820 - 6,810, followed by 6,800 - 6,780, and ultimately the 6,760 - 6,733 level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES - December 12th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 12th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have had a great week and while trend points to price continuing to move higher, after we have a nice move like we did yesterday, price can chop around for a day or two before continuing higher. Yesterday's overnight low was 6817 with 6830 being the big base that took us higher. 6862 was a key pivot area yesterday as moved over 100+pts on the day. Since we finished at highs of the day and we gapped down overnight with the overnight high being 6915 and the overnight low is 6892. We will not have any of our highest quality levels unless we sell off below 6862. As I type this plan, we are currently attempting to reclaim the 6902 level, which has an overnight resistance shelf and a bull flag that looks to be building. Ideally, we can flush 6892 (possibly down to 6885) or lose 6902 and reclaim to take us higher. Below 6885 and we will need to see price hold 6872 with 6862 being the lowest to keep us moving higher. I do think we can close the gap from the overnight session and give 6925-29 another attempt today. I will patiently wait until the 9:30am open and see what price does in the first 5-10 mins. If price flushes and reclaims 6892 prior to the open, then I will take that level to level move. Outside of that I expect us to chop around in this range until price finds direction after the open. Key Levels - 1. 6892 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6885) 2. 6885 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6872) 3. 6872 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6862) I hate trading when price is close to highs and with no high-quality levels close to price. I will size down and use the levels that price gives but will be taking profits quickly at each level above. For any new followers, that would mean that I would enter a position, sell 1/2 or 3/4 of that position at the next level up and then leave a runner to catch a couple of more levels higher. Example - We lose 6892 down to 6885-87, I will then enter on the reclaim of 6892 and sell 3/4 at 6902 and leave a runner. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES - December 16th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 16th- Daily Trade Plan - 5:50am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. March is roughly 60pts above December and is why yesterday's levels prices are way different than today's. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Since we are using the new contract levels, I will keep today simple and not discuss yesterday as it may be confusing. Overnight high is 6883 and our Overnight low is 6833. Yesterday our low was 6865 and as I am typing this trade plan, price is currently trying to clear and hold the 6865 level. When looking at price you can see that we are in a downtrend and price needs to clear 6929 to continue to move higher. Key Levels Today - 1. 6865 - Flush and Reclaim 2. 6833-37 - Flush and Reclaim 3. 6812 - Flush and Reclaim 4. 6792 - Flush and Reclaim Below 6833 and we should get a decent bounce at 6812, we will most likely find a better low around the 6792 level. We have Employment Data coming out at 8:30am EST. I will post an update once we see the reaction. I will most likely not find any trading opportunities until after the NYSE open but will focus on price action and the levels in my plan. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - December 15th - Daily Trade Plan December 15th- Daily Trade Plan - 7am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last week we closed around the same level as the previous week. While we tried to get above the 6925 level, we could not hold above it to keep the momentum heading higher. This week we have some economic data coming out and we can expect some volatility as we head into the last week of heavy trading volume for the year. This week should set the tone for the remainder of the year. The overnight session low is 6823 and we have some clear levels that have held since we rallied into the overnight session high of 6865 (as of writing this post). 6851 is our first immediate support and 6843 being a level that should hold if we want to keep going higher. Price is in a tough spot for new entries this am as we are looking to continue higher to back test the 6885 level. You might be able to find an entry on the back test of 6865 if we can clear it to 6870 then back test 6861-65 Key Levels Today - 1. 6843 - Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6823 - Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 3. 6801-05 - Flush and Reclaim (Highest Quality) I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Day 80 — From Green to Red: The Danger of OverstayingEnded the day -$256 trading S&P Futures. I was actually up +$250 early in the session, but I made the mistake of itching for more after playing it safe with small gains all week. I decided to size up to 6 contracts on a Buy signal that looked solid, but the market had other plans. We saw a "flash crash" out of nowhere that stopped me out, only for price to rip all the way back up after tagging the 10-minute MOB. It felt scammy, stressful, and honestly, it ruined the day. It’s a harsh reminder that right now, the longer you stay in this market, the more dangerous it gets. 🔔News Highlights: *S&P 500, NASDAQ END HIGHER, VIX FALLS AS INVESTORS BRACE FOR KEY INFLATION DATA 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6840= Bullish Level Below 6830= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
8
ES - December 10th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 10th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am going to keep today's trade plan pretty simple. It is the Fed Rate Announcement today at 2pm. Most professional traders do not even trade today, especially after 11am. Many times, the initial move after the Fed meeting is a trap, not always. We could easily go 100pts one way or another. We have been building a massive consolidation pattern that should break out or breakdown this week. Below 6790 and we should be heading lower and could over several weeks re-test the 6530-6550 November lows. IF we are able to break out above 6900 we should head to ATH's. Let's discuss how we can grab some points this am. I will only be looking to trade before 11:30am today and will need to be from one of the following key levels. Our overnight high is 6857-60 and our overnight low is 6834. Yesterday 6837 was Mondays low, 6844 was yesterday's low. 6834 is also the weekly low. and 6842 is a previous week low with 6801 being last week's low. I will be surprised if price does break down that we lose below 6790 this week. I could be wrong, but we have some important levels below current price that needs to be tested before it can flush lower. Key level today - 1. 6834 Flush and Reclaim 2. 6818 Flush and Reclaim 3. 6801 Flush and Reclaim If price cannot come back down and retest the overnight low, any reclaim of 6848 should give us a retest of the overnight high at 6857. If we clear 6857, we still have some key resistance levels above and we need to clear 6872 to break out and test 6893 and then above there we should be off to ATHs with 6952 being big first target. IF price does flush lower, I would be patient and let price build a base at or below one of the key levels and wait for price to show that it wants to hold above that level. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES UpdateNQ should hit oversold tomorrow, the question is whether or not ES and RTY also have to hit oversold before the market bounces. Open gap above, but that will fill eventually when Supreme Court nullifies Trump's tariffs. Took a chance and went long on GM calls this afternoon, held it because of the EOD pump. Could be a mistake holding calls when I know the market is headed down, but GM seems to be doing its own thing and melting up. Didn't really track the market at all today. In any case, futures are red, and I'll go long on other stocks when ES hits oversold.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
ES UpdateThere is a small open gap from the one hour break yesterday that will eventually fill, but looks like we're just going to get more whipsaw. I think the pump and dump algos have been shut off for now. The next big news will be Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs, but that may not happen until next month. Just be careful about shorting retail and manufacturers (such as auto) until then. I think the court rules against Trump and that means a lot of money paid back to a lot of companies.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Dec 17th)Market Update: ES Faces Critical Decision Point The ES market is currently navigating a narrow “decision pocket” between 6850 and 6865, following a significant selloff and a subsequent bounce that has yet to establish a definitive trend. The situation is clear: buyers must defend the lower range of 6834 to 6817 to maintain market stability within this range. Conversely, sellers are focusing on the upper threshold between 6880 and 6892. With the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Thursday morning, traders are likely to become more reactive, potentially taking profits swiftly and responding sensitively to any news regarding interest rates. What can move ES tomorrow (high-impact catalysts, ET) 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - usually a modest mover, but it can nudge rates early. 8:15 Fed Governor Waller (Economic Outlook) - big rates sensitivity; ES can whip on any change in tone. 9:05 NY Fed President Williams - opening remarks at an NY Fed conference; still headline-capable. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - can move crude and inflation expectations, which can leak into ES. 11:00 Treasury buyback details (eligible bonds list) - rates pulse risk. 1:00 20Y Treasury auction (competitive bids) - one of the bigger intraday “rates steering wheel” moments. 1:40-2:00 Treasury buyback operation window - can add another yields swing in the early afternoon. Macro and News Themes to Watch Ahead of Tomorrow’s Market In the current environment, interest rates are proving to be the primary driver of market dynamics. Any increase in long-term yields exerts downward pressure on the equity markets, particularly when key indices like the S&P 500 are hovering near critical resistance levels. The Federal Reserve's messaging remains notably inconsistent. While some officials are emphasizing the importance of maintaining inflation credibility and adopting a cautious stance towards future rate cuts, others suggest that monetary policy is already positioned effectively and anticipate a gradual cooling of inflation. This divergence creates a volatile atmosphere, leading to heightened market reactions surrounding Fed speeches. On the geopolitical front, oil prices are responding to ongoing developments, particularly concerning Venezuela, which has raised supply-risk concerns. This uptick in crude prices has the potential to reinforce inflation narratives and influence equity market sentiment. Additionally, the looming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, where a rate hike is expected, adds another layer of complexity. Even ahead of this anticipated move, shifts in foreign exchange and global rates could significantly impact U.S. index futures and overall market positioning. Overnight NY Market Forecast Base Case Scenario: The market is expected to trade within a range of 6832.75 to 6880.50. Watch for potential retracements towards the 6849.00-6849.75 level, which appears to be a pivotal support point. Bullish Scenario: Should the index manage to sustain a position above 6880.50, a decisive break above 6892.00 would likely drive prices towards 6936.25, a key resistance level. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a confirmed drop below 6817.50 would pave the way for a test of 6800.00 initially. If sellers maintain their grip on the market, further declines to 6767.75 and 6733.75 may follow. A++ Setup 1 (Rejection Fade short from the upper shelf) Entry: 6887.00-6891.75 Hard SL: 6896.25 TP1: 6863.50 TP2: 6849.75 TP3: 6834.50 A++ Setup 2 (Acceptance Continuation short under PDL) Entry: 6814.50-6817.25 Hard SL: 6823.75 TP1: 6800.00 TP2: 6767.75 TP3: 6733.75 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
#ES_F Daily TF Longer Outlook UpdateBack in October we broke down Daily Outlook after we had topping signals and strong trend break. When that was posted we were looking to two possibilities after the trend was broken, we either needed to get back under Smaller MA without reaching the top to show no acceptance in New Range to then proceed with trend change and a slower correction or stay above Smaller MA to push for higher VAH/Edge areas to make this our range for some time and possibly balance between VAH/VAL with pushes out of them finding their way back in. What ended up happening is we got a push back into MA but closed over it and more buying came in to push and gap us over VAH into Range Top, of course we had no way of knowing that Range Edge would be the top but we pushed into it and showed clear topping/rejection from it. This time Edge Top rejection was much stronger and got us back under VAH/Smaller MA, flushed VAL with Medium MA which again provided Temp Support and as mentioned we got that balancing action between VAL / VAH with pushes out rotating back in until we broke/closed under Medium MA and got more selling which took us under Range Edge Low, flushed Previous Range VAH and Large MA but as that was first tag of big MA after spending quite some time away it naturally provided buying to get us back in New Range which we showed acceptance in by Previously Tagging the Top which meant once price is back in, it doesn't need much big buying as it just wants to rotate back towards Supply which so happens to be at/over VAH. Where can we go from here ? The flush under Edge Low temporarily changed Medium Trend into correction but the bounce didn't let us stay in correction and instead we go that rotation into Supply and are now technically again in Up Trend over MAs. Yes we can stay in up trend and continue with sideways/strength/inside days that will keep us up Over/Around VAH while we let Smaller/Medium MAs catch up and continue pushing us towards Edge Top and maybe even push us into New Range Above. But few things we have to consider... We are at the top of Big Big area (under new price level of 7000), We had a huge run this year, We have showed multiple Topping Patterns here around 6800 - 6900 +/- Areas, We have showed good trend breaks and attempts at trend change, We are back in area of Supply where bigger failures/sellers have came in, We are extended from Medium and Small MAs which provide support in New/Untested areas and this time we are extended away into Supply Area not New area. With all that in mind will we have strong buyers who will come in here and start buying the extension inside Supply ? Or was this extension all momentum buyers who aren't planning to hold us up. My current bias is if we look at Cost Basis break out area up to our Top, then the Flush to Large MA and back up, to me it looks like one side of a bigger M topping pattern which happens at bigger tops. If that is the case then either Friday or somewhere close we should be marking our Lower High and if buyers from Last Week will not hold this then price will want to head back towards some sort of Support which would be Smaller MA as the first spot which means back under VAH. Something to be careful of is that since now VIX is down, Volume will be down as well with holidays coming which means even if we start moving down it might be more of the same way we got up here last week which was more of Slower Balance(Back and Forth) Up days. Way down could be similar with slower balance down days. From there Smaller MA and areas under it can Provide Support and keep us in some sort of sideways action around it BUT as long as we keep holding under VAH 860s - and under Edge Top 920s then that will mean Weakness, we would look for a move under VAH that can stay under it even if it consolidates around, then into Mean where Medium MA should be by the time we get there, of course it could happen fast as well but have this feeling that it might be a drag this time around IF it happens. We already have a week of fresh Supply up here from Last Week and if we again get under Smaller MA and can again change trend under Medium MA then that will bring in more weakness to continue for lower targets back towards VAL which could also provide holds BUT if trend stays in correction and we are to follow through with the M pattern then we will eventually see a move back under Range Edge Low and aim to take out the low we made on the last Flush Nov 21st which would be the M middle which could give us more weakness to take us towards our Correction Areas lower into the Cost Basis. Again if market has topped out and all the large selling for now is done, if this is to happen then careful of forcing for it to happen quick as this can play out over a longer period of time as market may need a longer breather/correction/consolidation before it can start a new stronger trend again. If we don't end up getting a correction under Medium MAs under VAL/Edge then staying over VAL can keep price in balance with us going back and forth in 6700 - 6900s areas for some time, to not have a correction or prevent price balance and see more strength price would need to let some MAs catch up and push us over Previous High AND be able to stay above it, until then we will be looking at either more Balance or Balance with Weakness which can give us a correction.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn