ES (SPX) Analyses for Wed, Sep 17 - FOMC - Key ZonesBias:
The weekly and daily trends are staying positive, with higher highs and higher lows. We're in an uptrend, but right now, we're hitting some resistance instead of pushing into new territory.
Price-wise, we’re stuck in a range between two key levels: there’s some overhead resistance at 6678–6683 (that's the top of yesterday’s range and where things first started to react) and 6703 (which is a key point to watch). On the flip side, the lower support level is at 6653–6658 (this was the high from last week, and often when we retest it, it leads to buying).
Here’s what it all means: If we can stay above 6653–6658 and get rejected around 6678–6683, it might be a good idea to take some short positions back down to that support level. If we do manage to reclaim the lower support after a dip or if we break above 6703, we could continue upward to around 6720–6724, then maybe 6744–6750, and even 6760–6765.
If the bias shifts, like if we see price acceptance below 6653, that could signal a sell-off targeting 6643, then 6627, and possibly down to 6611–6618. On the other hand, if we see acceptance above 6703, it could bring back some long momentum.
Setups (Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m)
LONG — Sweep & Reclaim at 6653–6658 (LIS)
Idea: Liquidity grab into LIS, then buyers step back in.
15m trigger: Wick through 6653–6658 that closes back ≥ 6658.
5m confirm: Re-close up through 6664–6666 with a higher low.
1m entry: First HL pullback that holds 6659–6662.
Hard SL: Below the 15m sweep wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6678–6683, TP2 6703, TP3 6720–6724 (leave runner for 6744–6750).
SHORT — Rejection Fade at 6678–6683 (overhead)
Idea: First test into the box top fails; sell the rally back inside.
15m trigger: Probe 6678–6683 that closes back ≤ 6675.
5m confirm: Lower high + re-close down through 6672–6674.
1m entry: First LH retest 6679–6682 that fails.
Hard SL: Above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6666–6668, TP2 6653–6658, TP3 6638–6643.
• Skip if TP1 < 2.0R versus your wick stop.
We might see some compression before the FOMC meeting, especially in the early afternoon. It’s probably best to just react to any trades at the edges. The real action usually kicks off between 2:00 and 2:35 pm when the statement comes out and the Q&A starts.
In the morning, there’ll be some mixed signals with housing data at 8:30, EIA at 10:30, and the VIX settling, which could cause some quick, random spikes. Just treat those as noise unless they really break through your levels.
And don’t forget, the flows leading into Friday’s OPEX can really amp up the swings after the FOMC. The gamma profile tends to reset after the press conference too.
