Buyers finished with a strong closeThe closing price in the daily chart in the S&P 500 creates a technical uptrend. The next objective to the upside is 6789.
ESH2021 trade ideas
Day 42 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$821 While SickDay 42 of Trading Only S&P Futures is wrapped up with +$821 across all accounts.
Even while battling the flu, I stuck to the process: waited for price to hit MOB, took the clean play, and locked in early. The rest of the day was more about protecting focus than chasing trades.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6745 = Stay Bullish
Below 6715 = Flip Bearish
📰 News Highlights
S&P 500 closes above 6,700 on bets of limited shutdown impact
A look at the MES1! (SPX)Chart Time Frame: 1 Hour
Current Price: 6763 after setting recent ATH at 6800
Daily Candle: Top Heavy Doji with open / close entire in the body of previous candle.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
EMA 8 (thin cyan): ~6733 – Above price. Negative Slope.
EMA 21 (med cyan): ~6775 – Above price and EMA 8. Negative Slope. Rotation zone created on 1H and lower TF (EMA 8 crossed EMA 21). Crossover has not happened on higher TF's at time of post.
EMA 50 (thick cyan): ~6765 – Above current price; Flattening out.
Structure: Bullish Trending since April lows.
📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 43 (57 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weakening.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: 1; Signal Line: 4.2; Histogram: -3.2
Interpretation: MACD is growing bearish, histogram showing increasing intensity, yet still above 0.
🎯 Key Levels
Support: various possible trend lines shown (Purple). Price action Monday will determine their validity. Swing low at 6681.
Resistance: Overhead moving averages. ATH at 6800.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
VIX - After a decline, showing signs of inflection. Currently trending upwards on the daily TF.
Government shutdown and headline risk are of some concern to short term price action.
Short Term: A sudden opening of the government could certainly cause a bullish event. I could also imagine certain headlines that would cause a short term bearish event.
Longer term: govt shut downs have typically preceded bullish gains.
📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation: We are in between earnings seasons and with a Gov shutdown, void of Gov Data.
DXY - Pulled back significantly this year. I personally expect it to continue. This could provide a tail wind to equities pricing.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Wednesday - 3PM EST - FOMC Minutes. Dot Plot could cause some action as the minutes are dissected.
Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. A big miss (up or down) could cause some action.
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Long bull run - might be getting stale; Might just be getting started. You decide.
🧩 Momentum: Very high on longer TFs, Turning down on the lower.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term - I love a 'rotation zone trade'. If price bounces back up into the EMA 21/8 spread zone, I would be looking for some day trade shorts.
ES - October 1st - Daily Trade PlanOctober 1st - 6am EST
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday, was a very choppy tight range that since last Thursday had been getting bought up around the 6693-6705 zone.
I wrote yesterday "Our overnight session high was 6717 and our low is 6694. I said yesterday that we need to clear 6722 for bulls to continue to push price higher. IF, price loses 6684 that is a warning sign. Guess, what? 6684 area will be a big focus today, IMO.
I will be looking for price to flush to 6680-84, reclaim 6688 and head up the levels. We could also flush 6694, hit 6688 and the reclaim of 6694-96 would be a great spot also.
The reclaim of 6705-07 should get us a few points to retest 6716-17 at the overnight high. Above that and we should retest the weekly highs at 6736, IF, we can clear 6722 area."
While my plan did not flush 6680-84, we did flush the 6692-96 zone and that was the area that Institutions kept buying. I also said that IF, we clear 6722 we should retest the 6736 weekly high and we did that in the last hour of trading and rallied to 6743 and then sold off.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When we close the day at the highs, I like to post my Daily Trade Plan after the overnight session, because it gives me an opportunity to see what price action looks like as we get ready for the day. What has happened overnight? We lost some key levels - 6722, 6705, 6697 and our overnight session high was 6732 and low is 6680.
I had been looking for price to get down to the 6680 level as it is where the white trendline magnet is and you can see clearly on the chart that we have held this area since the European open.
This makes today pretty straightforward as to what levels we are looking to find quality points to enter and ride alongside the institutions.
As of writing this plan, price is coming into our first resistance level of 6705. Any reclaim of 6722 will keep us moving higher. We had a very nice, failed breakdown overnight of the 6688 level for a nice pop to 6705. I will be looking for price to pullback below the 6694 level and reclaim any of the levels above it for a move higher. IF, price loses 6680, the next big areas for a reaction will be 6669, 6664, 6653-56.
I mentioned yesterday that IF, we lose 6650, we could probably flush lower and that would put 6633, 6624 as my top levels for flush and reclaims to move us higher.
Key Support Levels - 6650, 6656, 6664, 6669, 6675, 6680, 6688, 6694
Key Resistance Levels - 6705, 6711, 6717, 6722, 6732
I do expect price to potentially retest the 6717-22 level as this was the area we broke out from yesterday and also, broke down from overnight.
Be patient and wait for price to come back down to the levels lower to flush and reclaim for points higher. I am not interested in trying to trade a level reclaim above 6705-6722 as it could just be a choppy area. Any pullback below 6688 and reclaim, I will be taking. IF, we lose 6680 and ES is flushing lower, I would be patient and wait for the levels in blue to build a base, reclaim and move higher.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Uncertainty in the marketThe daily chart in the S&P 500 implies a market that wants to go higher but it lacks conviction on the close for Monday and the Asia session that is just starting for Tuesday so looking for a market that continues lower the next objective for this market is 6771.
Day 44 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$2,542 Quick WinsI followed the bullish flips and buy signals right after the open, took longs, and hit profit targets quickly. There was also a clean backtest bounce at the MOB around 9:42. After those trades, I locked in +$2,542 across all accounts and stepped away for meetings — avoiding the noise and chop that came later.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6755 = Stay Bullish
Below 6740 = Flip Bearish
📰 News Highlights
UBS RAISES GOLD, SILVER PRICE FORECASTS AGAIN
Positive movement to the upside is expectedThe structure in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies continuation of the uptrend in a strong close going into the weekend. The upside objective is 6789.
ES1! DAILY upwards towards 7000!1). Rate cuts have begun! 2). ABC correction likely over. 3). MACD divergence. 4). Risk Assets are positive across the board!
A market in waitingThe S&P 500 daily chart structure implies this market is waiting for information on whether or not the US government will shut down. The results are a sideways market until a decision is made.
Day 43 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Fresh RecordsDay 43 of Trading Only S&P Futures is done — and despite fighting through the flu, I finished +$1,069 across all accounts.
The morning was tough with negative gamma and a few bad trades, but patience was the difference-maker. Once bullish structure aligned with positive gamma, I trusted my levels, bought the dip at MOB, and it worked out beautifully.
📰 News Highlights
DOW, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6745 = Stay Bullish
Below 6730 = Flip Bearish
ES - October 2nd - Daily Trade PlanOctober 2nd - 6:08am EST
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday, we had a massive squeeze higher as retail investors where bearish due to the US Government Shut Down, while Institutions had been building positions since last week by accumulating between 6626 & 6680. 6705 was the major bull/bear line and we finally got the massive squeeze higher. We have met our initially weekly targets and now we need a pullback to find opportunities to enter higher. Over the past 2 days, most contracts that have been traded are sitting above the 6755 range. What does that mean? Institutions have been selling to retail traders as everyone does not want to have FOMO!
Will a rug pull come today or tomorrow? I have NO idea when Institutions are planning to "pull the rug" and grab liquidity. What I will focus on is the areas that I can grab points, IF/When that occurs. If you have traded ES for any length of time, when ES sells off, it sells fast, and you do not want to try and pick a bottom.
Let's discuss today's plan!
The overnight session has been distributing between the overnight low at 6755 and the high of 6775. While price can just keep going higher today. We need to be prepared to find quality setups that we can grab points from. As you know, I am a long ES trader that focuses on Failed Breakdowns. That is how Institutions accumulate. The ideal long for me, is the prior days low to flush and recover, or another well-defined area that produced a nice bounce/rally.
Key Support Levels - 6763, 6755, 6747, 6737, 6728, 6717, 6705, 6697, 6688, 6680
Key Resistance Levels - 6775, 6786, 6792, 6801+
While typing this Daily Trade Plan, I am hearing in the background CNBC talking head guests about how bullish they are! I do believe that Institutions will let the NYSE open and continue to sell to retail investors that could push prices up to the key resistance levels above. We need to be patient and see what price does in the first hour of the open.
The key levels that I will be looking for to grab points.
1. 6755 is a level that should have some liquidity to at least grab some points to the 6764 level.
2. 6744-46 could produce some points and any reclaim of 6755 would be bullish
2. 6737 is a level that could produce some points to retest the 6755 overnight low
3. 6728 is a level that needs to hold, or we will start to have a warning sign that price needs much lower prices.
4. 6717 is last level that price needs to hold or we could flush all the way down to retest the 6705, 6697 and 6680 levels.
IF, price rallies above 6775 (Overnight High) and then comes back into this range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grab points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.
Personally, I will not be chasing price at these levels and will be patiently waiting on price to come back to one of the levels outlined for an opportunity to take some points today.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - September 28th - October 3rd September 28th - 10:15am - Weekly Trade Plan
We had a great week, and Institutions continue to buy and keep price moving higher. We reached our weekly targets on Monday at 6750-52 then sold off to 6623 on Thursday which was the low of the week. Since Thursday Institutions have been buying and holding the 6653-6663 as the bull/bear line heading into this week. While price can flush lower, we really do not want to see anything lower than 6588 with a quick recovery of 6611 on a weekly basis.
Friday October 3rd is the big catalyst this week with the Employment Report at 8:30am
Key Support Levels - 6684, 6663, 6653, 6634, 6623, 6611, 6602, 6588
Key Resistance Levels - 6705, 6718, 6730, 6756
Weekly Targets - 6767, 6792, 6801, 6813+
Since we closed at the high of the day on Friday, I will post my Daily Trade Plan on Monday around 6am. That way we can see what price does in the overnight session. I anticipate that we hold the 6663 level with 6684 holding being bullish short term to continue up the levels. We could go parabolic this week into the 6800+ levels. I will be waiting on pullbacks to ride higher this week.
One thing to keep in mind is that this week is end of month/quarter and Institutions will be performing their window dressing to show clients how well their quarterly returns are doing. Unless price action changes, you have to follow the trend. Right now, the trend is up!
(I post a more detailed daily plan, and this allows me to focus on price action daily. The weekly plan is a bigger picture overview, but obviously that can change at any time based on daily price action) - *Follow me so you don't miss my daily updates
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low
Green Levels - Weekly Targets
Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan)
White - Rising trendlines from august lows
Waiting on what happens in Washington DCWith the potential government shutdown looming, the S&P 500 daily chart has a neutral zone structure as the market waits for an outcome.
ES - October 10th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 10th- 6:20am EST
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday, we had our first sell off that was lower than most of the local levels we have been seeing the dips bought at. It took price a couple of hours of basing in the afternoon before the 3pm rally. When price sells off like yesterday, it is important to remember that you do not have to rush in at every level. It is also important to make sure you take profits at the next level up. Depending on your strategy, Ideally, you will have a minimum of 2 contracts that you buy, with 1 being sold at the first level and the other being a runner. This way you can catch the move up, while still being profitable.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overnight high is 6793 and we just made a new overnight low at 6773. Price needs to reclaim 6790-92 to continue higher. IF, price loses 6773, we will need to come back down and retest yesterday's low at 6761. I have mentioned in the weekly trading plan and in my note yesterday at 4pm -
"Price found a nice low at 6760 and built a base this afternoon and broke out to back test the overhead resistance at 6783. Any flush and reclaim of 6763 this evening is a good immediate spot. Price will most likely hold 6766-70 level and continue higher. 6750-56 is a key level for price to hold tomorrow. IF, we close below that level tomorrow, we may need to go all the way back down to 6729, 6705 to continue higher. IF, price loses 6756 overnight, I would wait until 6729 area as first good spot, IF, that area cannot clear 6756-58 on any back test, it may need to see 6705."
We should get some opportunities today at some quality points.
Highest Quality setups are the following:
1. Flush and reclaim of 6773
2. Flush and reclaim of 6761-63 area, with 6767 being the safer spot to enter with price clearing 6774 being bullish.
3. Flush and reclaim of 6753
4. Flush and reclaim of 6741
IF, price gets below 6741, we will need to look at 6729, 6705.
Key Support Levels - 6773, 6767, 6761, 6753, 6747, 6741, 6729, 6705
Key Resistance Levels - 6783, 6789, 6793-95, 6802, 6807, 6812
As of writing, we are in a clear downtrend with price on the 15 min chart. Any base that is built above 6773 and the reclaim of 6789 would be bullish in the current range.
I still think we need to find liquidity lower by flushing the 6761 level with a reclaim of 6763-65 being a great spot to try for some points.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups For Wed, (Oct 1)News & event map (for tomorrow, Wed Oct 1)
• ADP National Employment Report – 8:15 ET. Official release time.
• S&P Global PMI (final) – 9:45 ET. Scheduled on the first working day; tomorrow’s calendar lists 09:45.
• ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid – 10:00 ET. ISM releases on the first business day at 10:00.
• JOLTS: already published Tuesday; none expected Wednesday.
• Shutdown watch: if funding lapses at midnight, the Labor Dept./BLS suspends operations and economic data are delayed (e.g., Friday jobs report). Expect the market to lean more on private data (ADP/ISM).
Shutdown Overview – Trading Insights
Historically, equity markets have exhibited mixed to mildly positive performance during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains between 0% and +0.3% in prior instances. The primary concern during these periods tends to be short-term volatility and potential delays in economic data, rather than sustained market downturns. Notably, the long-term trend suggests that markets typically recover and trend higher in the months following the resolution of a shutdown.
Overnight projection (Asia→EU)
The baseline expectation is for range-building between 6693 and 6725, with potential liquidity runs at the confluence edges. We often see price dips below the 6693–6695 zone rebound towards 6703 or 6713. Conversely, a strong acceptance above 6720–6725 can lead to a probe into the 6740–6750 range before the New York session. If we see a clean 30-minute close below 6693, that could open up the move to 6676 and potentially 6653.
NY session game plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
Trade around the 8:15 and 10:00 windows; let the first impulse settle, then execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 kill-zones.
ES LONG Acceptance (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs
Bias: Only if 15m accepts above 6720–6725 (re-close & hold).
Entry: 5m pullback hold → 1m HL trigger 6721–6726.
SL: ≤6712.75 (beyond VWAP/IB-H) hard stop (±0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6743.5 (PDH) — take 70%, set runner BE.
TP2: 6750–6755 supply.
TP3: 6763–6768 stretch if ISM beats and breadth expands.
Invalidation: A 15m body back inside ≤6719 after entry.
ES SHORT Rejection (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs
Bias: Fade first test of 6740–6750 if 15m shows rejection (wick + close back inside).
Entry: 5m LH re-close below 6735–6738; 1m trigger.
SL: ≥6756.
TP1: 6720–6722.
TP2: 6703–6705 (Y-POC).
TP3: 6693–6695 (Y-VAL/ONL).
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6750.
ES - September 30th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 30th - 6:15am EST
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday, we had a couple of opportunities at key levels to grab some points. You can look back at my notes that I post in real-time to review and see what transpired. Here are a couple of highlights.
"First level we are looking to defend will be 6715-6718. Any flush below and reclaim of 6725 should give us another attempt at clearing 6730-32 level.
Ideally, we can get a flush down to 6697-6700, reclaim 6705 and then long back up the levels.
IF, price loses 6684, we will need to look for flush and reclaims to get us moving back up the levels. I do not anticipate a loss of 6684 today as we close out end of month tomorrow."
We never lost 6684, yesterday, with our low being 6697.
8:50am - Update
"You can see that at 7:50am we lost the 6725 level down to 6723 and then reclaimed and went higher. I was off my desk and missed this level reclaim, but it was good for a nice pop back to 6731 level."
2:35pm - Update
"Price needs to reclaim 6722 to keep us moving higher overnight. IF, price loses 6704 then we will most likely need to test the 6683-6688 level that could push us back up the levels. When I posted the trade plan for today, I wrote "Ideally, we can get a flush down to 6697-6700, reclaim 6705 and then long back up the levels." At 1:32pm EST, we got to 6699, reclaimed 6705 and have rallied higher.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's get into today's plan! Our overnight session high was 6717 and our low is 6694. I said yesterday that we need to clear 6722 for bulls to continue to push price higher. IF, price loses 6684 that is a warning sign. Guess, what? 6684 area will be a big focus today, IMO.
I will be looking for price to flush to 6680-84, reclaim 6688 and head up the levels. We could also flush 6694, hit 6688 and the reclaim of 6694-96 would be a great spot also.
The reclaim of 6705-07 should get us a few points to retest 6716-17 at the overnight high. Above that and we should retest the weekly highs at 6736, IF, we can clear 6722 area.
6663, 6653 are the next 2 main levels below that I will be looking for reactions.
Key Support Levels - 6653, 6663, 6684, 6697, 6705, 6715, 6725
Key Resistance Levels - 6704-06, 6715-17, 6721, 6728, 6736
Weekly Targets - 6760, 6767, 6776, 6786, 6800+
IF, price loses 6650, then we will most likely flush pretty hard below. Since it is the last day of the month/quarter, I do not anticipate that happening. Stay patient and wait for high quality levels to flush and reclaim.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Next swing wave 3 targeting 6800!1). Rate cuts have begun! 2). ABC correction likely over. 3). MACD divergence. 4). Risk Assets are positive!
Note
I've been analyzing charts for over 20 yrs. as my strategies "trend" to be very accurate! A lot of effort goes into this, so please consider a "Boost"
S&P 500 FuturesThe S&P 500 futures have once again advanced over the past month and have once reached a new all-time high. From a technical perspective, the market is currently in overbought territory, which leaves room for a potential pullback. In such a scenario, the index may test the support level around 6,000, with intermediate support at 6,400.
Another factor supporting the case for a correction is the fact that from August through October, equities typically exhibit seasonal weakness. Nevertheless, the long-term trend remains firmly bullish.
Long-term trend: Up
Resistance level: 6,800
Support level: 6,000, 6400
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS
• Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y).
• Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover.
• U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start.
→ Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone.
INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS
Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669.
Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests.
Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724.
LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS:
Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724
Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724.
5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up.
1m Entry: HL reclaim.
SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower).
• TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763.
Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2.
Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724
Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714.
5m: Re-close down with LH.
1m Entry: First pullback lower-high.
SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high).
TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666.
Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM.
Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666
Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672.
5m: Re-close up holding the band.
1m Entry: HL.
SL: Below 6658.
• TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736.
Size: ¾ normal.
Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636
Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up.
SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor).
• TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714.
Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells.
RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS
• Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts.
• Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
• Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits.
• Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net.
• Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
Day 40 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,515 LossDay 40 of Trading Only S&P Futures closes with another red day, down -$2,515.
I started the day with losses from an overnight trade but worked back to breakeven after a few solid setups. Then came the turning point — I bet on structure flipping bullish, set multiple buy-the-dip orders with stops just under 6701, and got wicked out two points before the bounce. That single trade set the tone for the rest of the session.
On top of that, I was fighting a headache all morning, so instead of tilting, I stepped away, left orders at key levels, and let the market do its thing. This challenge isn’t about perfection — it’s about consistency and learning, even on tough days.
📰 News Highlights
US economic data releases to pause in government shutdown, Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook
The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers.
As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive.
Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines.
Key catalysts this week (ET)
Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks.
Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug).
Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep).
Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep).
Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints.
Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation
Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf.
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL.
Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick).
Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915.
Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session.
Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost).
ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade
Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected.
Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH.
Entry: 6744–6748.
Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter.
Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620.
Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs.
Price Projection for the Week
Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range.
Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend.
Execution Notes:
- Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes.
- Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net.
- On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative.
10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00).
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary).
Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts.
Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2.
Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session.
Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++)
Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim.
SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick).
TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782.
3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+)
Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim.
SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786.
Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size).
4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance)
Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down.
Entry: 6,740–6,742.
SL: 6,748–6,750.
TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748.
===
Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++)
Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,782–6,786.
SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725.
Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788.
PA Thoughts:
Overnight (Asia/London):
Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810.
NY AM (09:30–11:00):
Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge.
NY PM (13:30–16:00):
If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.
Day 39 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,465 DrawdownDay 39 of Trading Only S&P Futures ends with a tough -$2,465 loss.
The morning started strong — I was green on my first three trades with bullish signals at the open. But by 10am, unexpected news about a government shutdown and rate cut doubts shook the market. I got shaken out, lost my morning gains, and ended the day deep in the red.
In hindsight, if I had trusted my analysis, kept my MOB buy-the-dip orders, and stayed patient, I would’ve finished green. Instead, I let the news trigger me and broke discipline.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6705 = Flip Bullish
Below 6675 = Flip Bearish
