NASDAQ on the Edge: Head & Shoulders + Bearish SeptemberOn the daily chart, a clear Head & Shoulders formation has developed: left shoulder in mid-July, head in early August, and right shoulder completed at the end of August. The neckline has been broken with volatility, and price is now retesting the supply zone at 23,600–23,800. This pullback aligns with a weekly area of strong supply, suggesting a potential rejection.
The projected target of the pattern points toward 22,800–22,600, an area overlapping with a key structural support. RSI shows bearish divergence and remains below the midline, reinforcing the short bias.
COT Report (August 26, 2025)
Non-Commercials (funds/speculators): +1,875 longs, -362 shorts → small long increase, but without strong conviction.
Commercials (hedgers): -5,832 longs, -1,579 shorts → clear reduction in long exposure, less bullish protection.
Net change: -5,275 longs → overall unwinding of long positioning, signaling underlying weakness.
Interpretation: Speculators remain net long, but commercials significantly cut exposure, suggesting caution on further upside.
Seasonality (September)
Historically, September has been a negative month for NASDAQ:
10-year average: -148 pts
5-year average: -313 pts
2-year average: -804 pts
The seasonal pattern supports a bearish bias, with weakness usually concentrated in the first half of the month.
Synthesis & Trade Bias
Technical: Bearish Head & Shoulders → target 22,800–22,600.
COT: Net long reduction by commercials → bearish pressure.
Seasonality: September statistically weak.
➡️ Bias: Short on NASDAQ (NQ).
MNQM2025 trade ideas
NQ Range (09-05-25)NAZ in a range of 7 direction changes going into a Friday. Looking Short and gambling with the idea that the F-M Long Play will break down, again. The next direction change would be a move lower. KL's to watch: TLX 24,056 is pop turn zone, 24,600 is Max Pop and Long Term TL retest. TLX 22,662 is lower target after the reject at TLX 24,056 to 24,600 range. I do not see this lifting to max pop (24,600), just using as a Tweet, Magic O/N play should the F-M Play go North today and Monday. White arrow to yellow arrow is the idea here.
NQ! WEEK 2 LEVELSFor the 2nd week of September, I’ve structured my Nasdaq futures charting setup around key pivot levels (weekly and daily). My focus is on identifying price reactions at the central pivot, with clear support (S1, S2, S3) and resistance (R1, R2, R3) zones. These levels serve as my primary reference for intraday bias, potential reversals, and breakout continuations. I’ll be monitoring how price behaves around these pivots to align short-term entries with the broader weekly context.
NQ Inverted fair value gap retest for possible long position
NQ seeming quite bullish starting in September. On this 4hr chart we can see price completely disregard the FVG create last Friday. I can see price staying above the 23,584.00 range and possibly filling the entirety of the inversion area before heading back to the upside. Volume footprint shows that there were very few buyers in last Fridays dump.
Ill be keeping an eye out on this trade to see how price reacts before entering.
NASDAQ Caution + ConfirmationCME_MINI:NQU2025
Strong Rejection at Premium Pricing
Price rallied into a high-premium area above 23,800 and sharply rejected, leaving a large bearish displacement candle.
This suggests aggressive selling pressure and potentially an exhaustion of buyers at higher levels.
High Premium Context
Price is consolidating in a “high premium” zone (above equilibrium of the most recent swing).
The gray box marks the imbalance, which is currently acting as resistance where sellers may re-enter.
Liquidity & Posible Weekly Terminus
watching for confirmation of sustained bearish order flow.
Key Support Zones
23,410 → First downside target, aligning with partial fill of prior inefficiency and structural support.
23,309 → Major liquidity pool and marked as a potential weekly terminus if price breaks lower.
23,040 → Extended downside projection, aligning with prior weekly low sweep.
Market Sentiment
buyers failed to sustain price above 23,762.
If true, this supports a bearish continuation narrative into next week.
Bias & Trade Scenarios
Bearish Bias (Primary)
Trigger: Failure to reclaim 23,762 or rejection inside the gray FVG zone.
Entry: Look for bearish price action confirmation in the 23,700–23,750 zone.
Targets:
TP1 → 23,410
TP2 → 23,309
TP3 (extended) → 23,040
Stop: Above 23,880 (previous high / invalidation).
Bullish Counter Scenario (Secondary)
Trigger: A clean break and close above 23,762 followed by acceptance above 23,800.
Target: Re-test of 23,900 highs with potential continuation toward 24,000 round number.
Stop: Below 23,600.
Summary
Nasdaq futures rejecting a high-premium zone near 23,900, with price now consolidating inside a bearish FVG. Unless buyers reclaim 23,762 decisively, the path of least resistance favors another leg lower toward 23,410 → 23,309 → 23,040.
This setup highlights a bearish displacement with downside liquidity objectives, but traders should monitor reactions at 23,410 and 23,309 as potential bounce zones.
Non-Farm Payroll will be interestingI believe price will continue to rise ahead of Non-Farm Payroll but I will not stand in front of it. I will like to see some manipulation to the downside to possibly fill imbalances price has left. Mainly will hunt setups going long to use Previous Week High as my Draw.
NQ100 Intraday Outlook – Sept 8, 2025🧠 NQ100 Intraday Outlook – Sept 8, 2025
Bias: Intraday Bearish after NY Open
Price is currently trading within a well-defined premium zone, between the Sunday-Monday Order Block and the BPR M30 area.
🧩 Key Observations:
Price tapped into a minor M5 Order Block (OB) right after the 8:30 NY macro event.
We're seeing a reaction to a short-term OB, with a small push up likely to grab liquidity above the London session high.
Expecting liquidity run + rejection from the upper OB zone (23,810–23,830).
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
After the sweep of local highs, I anticipate a sell-off toward the Imbalance zone below (23,710 area).
Main targets are:
Imbalance fill
Possibly further down toward Weekly Open near 23,680
🔧 Confluence:
Midnight Open has already been reclaimed.
NY AM session is about to open – expecting expansion to provide confirmation.
Potential divergence between NQ (stronger) and ES (weaker) gives context for relative weakness later in the session.
📌 Idea Summary:
I expect one final push into the premium zone to grab liquidity before reversing down toward the Imbalance and possibly into the Weekly Open.
From -$450 to +450 to -$450 to +$350. Revenge trading example First 2 trades minus 200. Should have stopped. Wild swings from profit to loss to profit. Bad trading but good result. Lesson not learned.
I'm using fixed range volume profile, overnight highs and lows, 9 and 21 ema's, and VWAP. I trade momentum with breaks and retests of key levels (explained in the video). Bear and bull flags.
I tried to include screenshots of my Ninja execution screen and Apex PnL screen but they didn't come through.
Sunday Charting Market Outlook
The weekly chart remains in consolidation, with the daily chart revealing internal structure developing within a larger framework. Both buy-side and sell-side liquidity remain untapped. The most recent daily candle printed a doji, clearing prior liquidity and trading directly into a daily Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone — highlighting an area of interest for potential reversal.
On the four-hour chart, clean sell-side liquidity is visible at 23,019, and the last four candles have established a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) within the daily OTE zone.
While the broader order flow still supports a buying program, my long-term bias is for a downside move. Until a valid reversal confirms, I will continue trading intraday longs. A shift to short setups will require the four-hour bearish FVG to hold and be validated as a point of resistance.
Confluence of Tradingview's reversal indicator and S/R on NQ Today’s NQ session highlighted how powerful confluence can be. By combining TradingView’s Reversal Indicator with well-defined Support & Resistance levels, multiple signals aligned to show potential turning points in the market. This approach demonstrates how blending indicators with price structure can improve clarity and confidence in trade decisions.
NQ (Nasdaq Futures) – Tuesday Setup 09/09/2025
🧠 Market Context
Weekly Bias: Buy-side liquidity above Friday’s and Monday’s highs remains intact → a natural draw for price.
Daily Bias: Price is consolidating near these highs, suggesting engineered liquidity.
Tuesday Profile (ICT concept): Often prints the high or low of the week. Expect a Judas Swing in the morning session before the real move develops.
🎯 Trading Idea
I expect New York Open (9:30–10:00 NY) to deliver a pump above Monday/Tuesday highs → running buy stops (BSL).
After this liquidity grab, look for rejection + Market Structure Shift (MSS) on 5m/15m charts.
That would confirm distribution and set up the short.
✅ Execution Plan
Wait for the Sweep:
Levels to watch: 23,890–23,910 (Friday & Monday highs).
Confirmation:
SMT divergence (ES fails to make new high while NQ takes it).
BOS/MSS on 5m → entry on FVG/OB retracement.
Targets:
TP1 → 23,800 (intra-day liquidity).
TP2 → 23,750 (Weekly Open level).
📌 Key Notes
If price continues bullish above 23,910 without rejection, invalidate the short idea → bias shifts to continuation higher (24,000+).
Otherwise, this is a textbook “Tuesday High of the Week” setup.
✍️ Summary:
I’m anticipating a Judas Swing to the upside at NY Open, taking buy-side liquidity, followed by a reversal into sell-side liquidity at 23,750.
NQ Range (09-10-25)NAZ has been nibbling higher for 3 days and stopping at 23,900. Turn Zone above is 24,060, watch O/N Pump/Dump today at Reg Session open. Looking for yellow arrow to play out. Watch the Tweets during the Dead Zone or any Govt issued news (to the Long side). These may be knee jerk head fake longs or stall out set up to the short side. No drop, BTD and FOMO with the crowd.
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Buy It Until The Market Notifies Us Otherwise!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ looks poised to move higher. There is potential for it to make a new ATH.
Wait for pullbacks to poi's for valid long setups.
I do not see a reason to sell this market. Until there is a bearish break of market structure, buys are the ticket.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NQ 9/5Daily resistance on top of price.
Price is currently testing and being held by a 15min Inverse FS level.
A distribution trend is trying to form. If the BS candle is not formed to create the future origin level needed to create the trend, then price is targeting a higher range.
Price is supported by an hourly BS level, (unmarked) and the 4hr RAT with its accumulation trend. The 4hr level has the potential to break the daily distribution trend.
seems likely the price will need to find support again before breaking out.
Is Nasdaq still Bullish?I’m still sensing bullish momentum on Nasdaq. My expectation is for price to retrace back into this week’s NWOG before making a push toward last week’s NWOG and the 1-hour gap at 23,583.00. There’s also a possibility we dip to fill the gap at 23,400.00 first, but if that scenario plays out, I don’t see price maintaining its bullish momentum afterward.
On the weekly chart, price continues to strongly respect the Bullish OB formed in the first week of August. As long as this level holds, I expect momentum to carry us higher in the near term.
We'll see tomorrow morning⚡
NQ Bearish Idea for week 08-12/09/25I can see 2 higher levels being reached first before price starts collapsing toward mid end of the week. Only taking short setups this week. News will drive us to Target 1,2 and potentially 3.
Always caution, patience and risk!
GL!
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