NASDAQ Caution + ConfirmationCME_MINI:NQU2025
Strong Rejection at Premium Pricing
Price rallied into a high-premium area above 23,800 and sharply rejected, leaving a large bearish displacement candle.
This suggests aggressive selling pressure and potentially an exhaustion of buyers at higher levels.
High Premium Context
Price is consolidating in a “high premium” zone (above equilibrium of the most recent swing).
The gray box marks the imbalance, which is currently acting as resistance where sellers may re-enter.
Liquidity & Posible Weekly Terminus
watching for confirmation of sustained bearish order flow.
Key Support Zones
23,410 → First downside target, aligning with partial fill of prior inefficiency and structural support.
23,309 → Major liquidity pool and marked as a potential weekly terminus if price breaks lower.
23,040 → Extended downside projection, aligning with prior weekly low sweep.
Market Sentiment
buyers failed to sustain price above 23,762.
If true, this supports a bearish continuation narrative into next week.
Bias & Trade Scenarios
Bearish Bias (Primary)
Trigger: Failure to reclaim 23,762 or rejection inside the gray FVG zone.
Entry: Look for bearish price action confirmation in the 23,700–23,750 zone.
Targets:
TP1 → 23,410
TP2 → 23,309
TP3 (extended) → 23,040
Stop: Above 23,880 (previous high / invalidation).
Bullish Counter Scenario (Secondary)
Trigger: A clean break and close above 23,762 followed by acceptance above 23,800.
Target: Re-test of 23,900 highs with potential continuation toward 24,000 round number.
Stop: Below 23,600.
Summary
Nasdaq futures rejecting a high-premium zone near 23,900, with price now consolidating inside a bearish FVG. Unless buyers reclaim 23,762 decisively, the path of least resistance favors another leg lower toward 23,410 → 23,309 → 23,040.
This setup highlights a bearish displacement with downside liquidity objectives, but traders should monitor reactions at 23,410 and 23,309 as potential bounce zones.
