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#202544 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Two red days to end the month but until the giant gap down to 25350 is closed, nothing matters for the bears. Only below that price we can think about getting down to the bull trend line around 24800 but for now we are 400 points below the ath and the mania continues. I firmly believe the move from 24933 to 26399 was the blow-off-top but no one can tell until we completely reverse it. current market cycle: bull trend key levels for next week: 24800 - 26500 bull case: Every dip is heavily bought, even dips so small, you can not even see them properly on the daily chart. Full on fomo in the last inning of this. Only a complete AGI/proper lvl5 self driving can convince me otherwise. This is ‘99 all over and for sure we will get an amazing Michael Lewis book about this. Bulls remain in control until we completely reverse the last move and print below 24800 again. Every short is low probability but great r:r. Invalidation is below 24900. bear case: We will most likely test the bigger bull trend line again. As of now, the price action shows nothing bearish. Market is driven by a hand full of stonkz but at this point, no one cares because it’s only going up. No measure of excess matters because the snake-oil salesmen just make up new ones. Again. Nothing about the chart is bearish and until we at least close the gap down to 25350, we can not even think about getting confident about shorts. Yes it’s overbought, overdone, a bubble, whatever have you. Does not help with making money shorting this one bit. Wait. Invalidation is above 26500. short term: Neutral. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-02: Market went further in the wrong direction so my targets become increasingly unrealistic. Right now the 50% retracement is 21750 and would mean a 18% drop. That’s a bit too much to ask for as of now. 23150 is the breakout-retest of the prior ath from 2024-12 and a more realistic target.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Full Market Cycle Analysis for Nasdaq E-mini Futures (NQ) 11/3Price Action Confirmation & Levels to Watch Key Levels: 26,200 and 26,150 (major inflection/guard lines per recent market structure) 25,950 and 25,675 (cycle lows, reversion zones) Breakout Confirmation: Watch for price action around 26,150–26,170: best risk/reward short setup triggers if price retests and rejects this zone.​ Stop Loss: Place above 26,205 for intraday shorts (tight risk discipline). Initial Target: 500 pts lower to the 25,650–25,670 zone (mean-reversion target). Mean-Reversion & Swing Behavior Trend Context: Current structure shows NQ is way overbought (RSI/MFI excess); big players may tank the rally if major Fed/Earnings events hit tomorrow. Bearish divergence noted on H1, confirmed by loss of momentum and price rejection from upper channel. Short-term bias is toward retracement. Seasonal Triggers: FOMC, job numbers, and earnings continue to drive intraday spikes, though daily closes typically mean revert after exhaustion breaks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by CatalystNQ
Understanding the Structure of Global Financial Markets1. Introduction: The Backbone of the Global Economy The global financial market is the lifeblood of the world economy. It connects investors, governments, institutions, and corporations across borders, allowing capital to flow seamlessly where it is most needed. Whether it’s a farmer in India taking a loan, a startup in Silicon Valley raising funds through IPOs, or a central bank managing currency reserves, all these activities are influenced by the structure of the global financial system. Understanding how these markets operate provides insight into how money moves, how wealth is created, and how economic growth is sustained. The structure of global financial markets is not just about trading stocks or currencies—it represents a vast ecosystem that includes banks, exchanges, institutions, and regulatory bodies working in tandem. 2. The Core Components of Global Financial Markets The financial market is broadly divided into five major segments, each serving a unique function in the flow of funds and risk management. a. Capital Markets Capital markets are where long-term securities are bought and sold. They include: Equity Markets (Stock Markets): Where companies issue shares to raise capital, and investors trade those shares. Examples include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), London Stock Exchange (LSE), and National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. Bond Markets (Debt Markets): Governments and corporations issue bonds to borrow money for development projects, infrastructure, or business expansion. Bonds provide investors with fixed returns and are a safer investment option compared to equities. These markets are vital for economic development, as they help mobilize savings and channel them into productive investments. b. Money Markets The money market deals with short-term borrowing and lending, typically for periods less than one year. It provides liquidity to financial institutions, corporations, and governments. Key instruments include Treasury Bills, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), Commercial Papers, and Repurchase Agreements (Repos). Money markets are crucial for maintaining monetary stability and ensuring that businesses have access to working capital. c. Foreign Exchange (Forex) Markets The foreign exchange market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with over $7 trillion traded daily. It enables the conversion of one currency into another and supports international trade and investment. Participants include banks, hedge funds, corporations, and central banks. For example, an Indian company importing goods from the U.S. must convert INR to USD, a process facilitated by the forex market. d. Derivatives Markets Derivatives are financial contracts whose value is derived from underlying assets like stocks, bonds, commodities, or interest rates. Common types include futures, options, forwards, and swaps. These markets allow investors to hedge risks or speculate on price movements. For instance, airlines use derivatives to lock in fuel prices, protecting themselves from price volatility. e. Commodity Markets The commodity market deals with the trading of physical goods such as oil, gold, natural gas, and agricultural products. There are two major types: Hard commodities: Metals and energy resources like crude oil or gold. Soft commodities: Agricultural goods like coffee, sugar, and wheat. Commodity prices often reflect global supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions, making them a key indicator of economic health. 3. The Participants in the Financial Market Ecosystem Global financial markets are powered by a diverse set of participants, each playing a specific role in ensuring efficiency, liquidity, and transparency. a. Central Banks Institutions like the Federal Reserve (U.S.), European Central Bank (ECB), and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) oversee monetary policy, control inflation, and maintain currency stability. Their interest rate decisions and liquidity measures have global ripple effects. b. Commercial and Investment Banks Banks serve as intermediaries between savers and borrowers. Investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, help corporations raise capital through stock or bond issuance and advise on mergers and acquisitions. c. Institutional Investors These include mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds. They manage large pools of money and play a dominant role in capital allocation and price discovery. d. Retail Investors With technological advancements and low-cost trading platforms, retail participation in global markets has surged. Platforms like Robinhood, Zerodha, and Interactive Brokers have democratized investing. e. Regulatory Bodies Regulators ensure market integrity, transparency, and investor protection. Examples include: SEC (U.S.) – Securities and Exchange Commission FCA (U.K.) – Financial Conduct Authority SEBI (India) – Securities and Exchange Board of India These institutions enforce compliance and curb insider trading, market manipulation, and systemic risks. 4. The Role of Technology in Modern Financial Markets Technology has completely reshaped global finance, making markets faster, more efficient, and accessible. Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Automated systems execute trades in milliseconds, enhancing liquidity but also introducing flash crash risks. Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: Decentralized finance (DeFi) and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum challenge traditional banking structures, offering transparency and borderless transactions. Artificial Intelligence and Big Data: AI analyzes massive datasets to predict market trends, optimize portfolios, and assess credit risks. Fintech Platforms: Apps and online brokers have made trading, investing, and lending more convenient for individuals worldwide. The rise of digital transformation ensures that even small investors can participate in global opportunities that were once limited to large institutions. 5. Interconnectedness of Global Markets Global financial markets are interlinked. A shock in one region can quickly ripple across others—a phenomenon known as financial contagion. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis began in the U.S. housing market but spread to Europe and Asia. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, leading to massive volatility in stock and commodity markets. Today, geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.–China trade conflicts or Russia–Ukraine war) impact global energy prices, currencies, and investment flows. This interconnectedness makes coordination among central banks and international institutions (like the IMF and World Bank) essential to maintaining financial stability. 6. The Importance of Financial Market Infrastructure Behind every trade or transaction lies a complex network of infrastructure institutions ensuring smooth operation: Stock Exchanges (e.g., NYSE, NSE, HKEX) Clearing Houses (which ensure settlement of trades) Depositories (which hold securities electronically) Payment Systems (SWIFT, RTGS, NEFT, etc.) These systems enable trust and efficiency, allowing billions of transactions daily with minimal risk of default or delay. 7. Global Financial Centers Certain cities serve as nerve centers of the global financial system, each with its specialization: New York: Global leader in equities and investment banking. London: Known for foreign exchange and derivatives trading. Hong Kong & Singapore: Gateways to Asian capital markets. Dubai: Emerging as a Middle Eastern financial hub. Mumbai: India’s financial powerhouse, home to NSE, BSE, and a growing fintech ecosystem. These hubs attract multinational corporations, financial institutions, and investors, reinforcing the global network of finance. 8. Integration of Emerging Markets Emerging markets such as India, Brazil, China, and Indonesia have become major players in global finance. They offer: Higher growth potential Expanding consumer bases Attractive investment opportunities However, they also carry higher risks — including currency volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and political instability. Global investors increasingly view emerging markets as essential diversification opportunities, while international organizations like the World Bank and IMF provide financial support and stability frameworks. 9. Challenges Facing the Global Financial Market Structure Despite technological and institutional progress, several structural challenges persist: a. Systemic Risks The interconnected nature of finance means that a collapse in one sector or country can trigger a global chain reaction. b. Regulatory Divergence Different countries have varying financial regulations, making global harmonization difficult. c. Cybersecurity Threats As markets digitalize, cyberattacks pose significant risks to data security and financial stability. d. Market Inequality Wealth concentration among institutional investors and developed economies often widens inequality between nations. e. Climate and ESG Challenges Sustainability has become a key issue. Markets are increasingly adapting to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) frameworks, integrating ethical and ecological considerations into investment decisions. 10. The Future of Global Financial Markets The future structure of global financial markets will be shaped by innovation, regulation, and inclusivity. Key trends include: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) revolutionizing payment systems. Tokenization of Assets, allowing fractional ownership of real estate or art. Sustainable Finance, where green bonds and ESG-focused funds dominate portfolios. Cross-border interoperability, enabling faster and cheaper global transactions. The focus will increasingly shift toward resilience, transparency, and financial inclusion—ensuring that economic growth benefits both developed and developing economies alike. 11. Conclusion: A System of Opportunity and Responsibility Understanding the structure of global financial markets is essential not just for investors or policymakers, but for anyone who wants to comprehend how the modern world operates. These markets determine everything from interest rates on home loans to the prices of everyday commodities. At its core, the global financial system represents a balance between risk and reward, stability and innovation, and regulation and freedom. As globalization deepens and technology evolves, financial markets will continue to transform — becoming more interconnected, intelligent, and inclusive. However, this evolution also demands responsible participation. Ethical investing, prudent regulation, and financial literacy are vital to ensure that the benefits of global finance reach everyone — not just a privileged few. In short, the global financial market is a dynamic, living system — a mirror reflecting the collective ambitions, fears, and progress of the world’s economies.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
MNQ Ladder of SuccessEntries: every ought and every five. i.e. every number divisible by 10 and every number divisible by 5. Exits: 19 points for each and every entry. Stop Loss: none Entry type: stop market Exit type: stop limit Example Let's say this bounces on 26220 with a high of 26243. Entries will start @ 26245 and every 5 points thereafter. Exits will start @ 26264 and every 5 points thereafter You are now on The MNQ Ladder of Success. Once you reach the fourth rung you will have a revenue stream every 5 points. Until you don't i.e. after a pullback. When there is a pullback, wait for a bounce and start the process all over again. If you combine this with A Pawn for a King trading plan your first entry will be -1 @ 26244.50. Beginning @ 26245 and every 5 points thereafter you will buy 2 contracts. Raw numbers on a page can be confusing and intimidating. Demo trade this and you will see its simplicity. Don't forget the Pawn is redeemable after a pullback.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Sidgate
Short Analysis for the NQ ft. ES, DOW & DXYNQ: Range bound , 50/50 as of the time posting this; due to the discrepancies in the 3 sisters and the unreliability of the DXY. ES: Same situation as the NQ DOW: Potentially pursuing higher highs with a probability of dragging the NQ and the ES along with it. Although they do not show such interests for now. News: CPI, PPI, Non-Farm and other market drivers coming up in the next few weeks, which might provide some clarity on the mid to short-term. Calling a top now would be equivalent to gambling, in my opinion.
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by JustAltex
"Duct Tape" RallySo says Brian Brenberg of Fox Business's The Big Money Show. Hopeful news over the weekend about a possible easing of U.S.- China trade tensions gave us today's rally. It's just another duct tape patch. Communism is based on a lie. No matter how cleverly designed and alluring, a lie is still a lie. "Rob, Replicate and Replace" is a term commonly used when referring to Communist China's Trade policy. Thankfully, for now, we have an administration that knows this and knows how to handle this. Of course, China will continue to lie, obfuscate and delay, delay and delay some more, waiting for a new administration that won't be wise. Despite this ongoing tension that gives us "duct tape" rallies and volatility, we do have an historical bull market built upon the bedrock of The Fourth Industrial Revolution, strong earnings, an administration that is peace minded and has cut taxes and red tape resulting in powerful economic growth and we have several trade plans that give stellar profits in such an environment. This bull market should last for quite some time. If you have been following prior posts you would have had your Breakout Trades stacked to the ceiling, ready and waiting for the gap up we had on the 10.26 open. You would have made a pretty good day's pay. Here is another trade plan I use frequently. I call it a Joker. As with all prior posted trade plans, there's no brilliance here - just common sense. It's a combination of a pivot trade and a Buy the Dip trade. At or near the low of a Buy the Dip area I buy 1 or more MNQ contracts with a profit taker of 101 points. The extra point gives a solid $200.00 profit. I usually get several every week. As usual, I don't use a stop loss. Make sure you manage your margin with this and every prior posted trade plan. "Behold, I send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves: be ye therefore wise as serpents, and harmless as doves." Mt. 10:16
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Sidgate