Trade ideas
REMOVING NASDAQ FROM MY TRADING PLANTransition Note – Focusing Exclusively on EUR/USD
After several months of structured testing and data collection, I’ve decided to permanently remove the NASDAQ (US100) from my analytical framework and trading routine.
While the index offers remarkable volatility and potential, my recent journal review made something clear: the NASDAQ does not align with my strategy’s statistical edge.
The asset’s internal structure — heavily driven by algorithmic order flow and micro-volatility — tends to invalidate setups based on value zones, Wyckoff redistribution, and delta imbalances, which are the core of my system.
In contrast, EUR/USD consistently responds to institutional behavior:
clear dealing ranges and discount/premium rotations,
stronger respect for volume-based structures,
and predictable liquidity flow across sessions.
The data is objective:
• Win rate on NASDAQ – 38%
• Payoff ratio – 1.1:1
• Net result – negative
• Win rate on EUR/USD – 52%
• Payoff ratio – 2.16:1
• Net result – strongly positive
Therefore, all future macro and technical publications will focus exclusively on EUR/USD, with no further NASDAQ breakdowns or updates.
My aim is to refine precision, deepen macro integration (liquidity, yields, policy cycles), and operate where the statistical edge truly exists.
Consistency begins with focus — and mine is now 100% on the euro.
Recap: ORB Pro in Action | “Discipline > Direction”Date: November 3rd 2025
Ticker: QQQ / NQ1! (5-min TF)
Strategy: ORB Pro + Golden Pocket Retest + Volume Filter
Focus: Trend confirmation & controlled execution
🧭 Market Context
The morning opened sideways inside the ORB range — no clean conviction early on.
Around mid-morning, sellers gained control as lower highs formed beneath the EMA band and the Golden Pocket retest (0.5/0.618) failed with volume confirmation.
That break produced the clean short setup of the day, perfectly aligned with the higher-timeframe (HTF) downtrend.
🧠 Trade Review
Early Entries: Entered pre-confirmation and took initial heat.
Mid-Morning Setup: All filters aligned — EMA, volume, HTF direction. This was the textbook short that delivered follow-through.
Late Session Attempts: Momentum faded after lunch, with signals correctly blocked as “Too Late.”
Result: Several small wins offset by early losses, closing the day + $7.34 realized P/L after fees.
📊 Performance Snapshot
Metric Value
Win Rate ≈ 42 %
Best Trade + $287.94
Largest Loss – $189.05
Net Result + $7.34 (Realized)
Setup Accuracy High — execution mixed
📈 Chart Breakdown
The 5-minute chart highlighted a short trigger around 26 260 – 26 280, with smooth continuation into ORB extensions.
The ORB Pro filter marked “Blocked / Too Late” after the move — confirming that the system logic protected capital from late chases.
💡 Key Takeaways
Patience > Prediction — early entries rarely pay off.
Protect Green — partial profit lock once 1 R:R is reached.
System Strength — ORB Pro continues to validate structure when filters align.
🧘♂️ Reflection
“The system nailed the move — I jumped early. Still finished green, proving that execution discipline is the real edge. Tomorrow’s goal: one clean setup, one confident hold, and protect the profit.”
🧩 Next Steps
✅ Wait for full confirmation before entry
✅ Hold until 1:2 R:R min
✅ Avoid re-entries once HTF zone is tapped
"Stand by Me"Ben E. King, 1961. Classic Soul, Rhythm & Blues. Inspired by a popular gospel hymn of the South, same title.
Your author wanted to show a clean trading chart, and he also wanted to show his "Stand by Me" chart with its many supports and resistances.
He always trades from a clean 5minute chart. He simply clicks the hide button on & off.
If you switch to a 5m chart and you follow his trading plans you know he "bot" the Dip from 26110 - 26085. He also "bot" the Dip from 26060 - 26010.
You know he is nearly always Long and Short. He "would have" already pocketed much profit from 11.2 open to 11.3 10:15 - the first BTD entry.
You would also know he "started" a new Pawn for a King sequence selling 1 Pawn @ 26079.50 & buying 2 Kings @ 26080.00.
What's up with the quotation marks? Thrice this year he has been flagged as a national security risk. Twice he has been deplatformed and twice his trading account seized. This third time he pulled his account before it could be seized once again, & he deplatformed once again.
Adokimos is the Greek word Paul used in Rom.1:28 to describe our present society. It's a form of insanity. A society that declares itself autonomous from Eternal Truth always ends up here. Such a society perverts good and evil to such an extent that it punishes good and exalts evil.
We do have the best form of human government ever conceived - the culmination of millennia of Judaism and Christianity. We do get the government we deserve. When we choose to throw off self-government, i.e. virtue, we end up with Nihilism, Adokimos, our present society.
John Adams, one of our founding fathers, is well-known for having written, "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." Regarding self-government, i.e. individuals governing their behavior by Judeo-Christian ethics, he wrote, "The only foundation of a pure Constitution is pure virtue." "When public virtue is gone, when the national spirit is fled, the republic is lost in essence, though it may still exist in form." "The Declaration of Independence laid the cornerstone of human government upon the first precepts of Christianity."
On this, the eve of the New York mayoral election, Adams wrote this - "...poets read history to collect flowers not fruits - they attend to fanciful images, not the effects of social institutions."
There is so much that is just, pure and virtuous that our founding fathers have left us that many volumes have been written and, unfortunately, rejected by our present society. I will end with this quote from Adams, "The jaws of power are always open to devour, and her arm is always stretched out, if possible, to destroy the freedom of thinking, speaking, and writing." And I shall add - Trading. Adokimos.
Long trade
📘 Trade Journal Entry
Pair / Symbol: MNQ1! (Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures)
Direction: Buy-Side Trade
Date: Mon 3 Nov 25
Time: 1:00 am
Session: London Session AM
Timeframe: 1 Hour
🔹 Trade Details
Metric Value
Entry 26,057.50
Profit Level (TP) 26,390.50 (+1.28 %)
Stop Level (SL) 26,004.00 (–0.21 %)
Risk–Reward (RR) 4.36 R
🔸 Technical Context
Market Structure:
The index has been consolidating after a prior impulsive up-leg from mid-October.
A liquidity sweep below the 26,000 handle and BOS on lower time frames confirmed short-term accumulation.
15min TF Overview
Confluence Factors:
KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive MA) has flattened and begun to curl upward — early momentum shift.
Volume Expansion: Spike during the London open, suggesting institutional re-entry after the weekend gap. Intraday PD Array Alignment: Demand zone and VWAP cluster at 25,980–26,020 confluence zone. Session Overlay: Previous NY session lows have been taken out; London reclaim confirms buyside intent.
Key Zones:
Demand Base: 26,000 – 26,030
Target Zone: 26,380 – 26,400 (liquidity resting above prior London swing highs)
Extended Target: 26,790 (1.618 fib projection of current impulse)
🔹 Narrative & Bias
The setup reflects short-term accumulation within the broader bullish structure, consistent with rotation back into tech futures as the USD consolidates.
The 26,000 psychological level acted as a liquidity magnet — price swept stops, reclaimed structure, and produced a bullish displacement candle.
Macro Sentiment:
Renewed optimism in the Q4 earnings cycle; U.S. indices stabilising post-CPI data.
NASDAQ is outperforming due to sector rotation into large-cap growth (AAPL, ZS, NVDA correlation).
Projection:
Expect price to continue toward 26,390–26,400, with a partial profit zone near the prior swing high and potential continuation to the 26,780 1.618 extension if NY session momentum follows through.
NQ week 45Last weeks chart didn't have the fib levels to guess the tops so the chart quickly became invalid. I added the fib levels this week and posting on the 1hr instead of the 15min timeframe.
T.A explained -
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
NQ PULLING BACK TO MAKE A HIGHER HIGH?When the market opens on Sunday, it usually gives you a set up on a buy or sell depending on which way it breaks out of first 5 MINUTE ZONE high or low. This is usually a good entry for retest and a good exit area to make a profit. It may be a good idea to WAIT for the market to pull back and touch the 4hr FVG below before it moves to make a new all-time high.
#202544 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Two red days to end the month but until the giant gap down to 25350 is closed, nothing matters for the bears. Only below that price we can think about getting down to the bull trend line around 24800 but for now we are 400 points below the ath and the mania continues. I firmly believe the move from 24933 to 26399 was the blow-off-top but no one can tell until we completely reverse it.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels for next week: 24800 - 26500
bull case: Every dip is heavily bought, even dips so small, you can not even see them properly on the daily chart. Full on fomo in the last inning of this. Only a complete AGI/proper lvl5 self driving can convince me otherwise. This is ‘99 all over and for sure we will get an amazing Michael Lewis book about this. Bulls remain in control until we completely reverse the last move and print below 24800 again. Every short is low probability but great r:r.
Invalidation is below 24900.
bear case: We will most likely test the bigger bull trend line again. As of now, the price action shows nothing bearish. Market is driven by a hand full of stonkz but at this point, no one cares because it’s only going up. No measure of excess matters because the snake-oil salesmen just make up new ones. Again. Nothing about the chart is bearish and until we at least close the gap down to 25350, we can not even think about getting confident about shorts. Yes it’s overbought, overdone, a bubble, whatever have you. Does not help with making money shorting this one bit. Wait.
Invalidation is above 26500.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-02: Market went further in the wrong direction so my targets become increasingly unrealistic. Right now the 50% retracement is 21750 and would mean a 18% drop. That’s a bit too much to ask for as of now. 23150 is the breakout-retest of the prior ath from 2024-12 and a more realistic target.
Full Market Cycle Analysis for Nasdaq E-mini Futures (NQ) 11/3Price Action Confirmation & Levels to Watch
Key Levels:
26,200 and 26,150 (major inflection/guard lines per recent market structure)
25,950 and 25,675 (cycle lows, reversion zones)
Breakout Confirmation:
Watch for price action around 26,150–26,170: best risk/reward short setup triggers if price retests and rejects this zone.
Stop Loss: Place above 26,205 for intraday shorts (tight risk discipline).
Initial Target: 500 pts lower to the 25,650–25,670 zone (mean-reversion target).
Mean-Reversion & Swing Behavior
Trend Context:
Current structure shows NQ is way overbought (RSI/MFI excess); big players may tank the rally if major Fed/Earnings events hit tomorrow.
Bearish divergence noted on H1, confirmed by loss of momentum and price rejection from upper channel. Short-term bias is toward retracement.
Seasonal Triggers: FOMC, job numbers, and earnings continue to drive intraday spikes, though daily closes typically mean revert after exhaustion breaks.






















