NQH2025 trade ideas
#202534 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq futures Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Market stayed around the 50% retracement from the prior 2 weeks selling. Bears need to miracle to keep it below 23600 and go down again. Bulls want the measured move up which could lead to 24200 or more. We are in the middle of the range and I need strong momentum on Monday to join either side.
current market cycle: bull trend - peak bubble
key levels for next week: 22800 - 24100
bull case: Bulls want a new ath but I doubt they will get it without a better pullback. The move on Friday was strong enough to expect at least a second leg. Otherwise I am having a hard time finding arguments for the bulls. They printed a higher low, which still confirms the bull trend and bulls can argue it’s a two-legged pullback on the daily chart. Confirmation is only above 23600 and if so, I’d expect a quick move to 23800.
Invalidation is below 23400ish
bear case: Bears can argue the red bear trend line is still valid (see chart) and that we retraced about 50% of the two-week selling. If they can stay below 23600, small chance that we reverse and continue down to 23000 and make lower lows again. For now bears are not favored and around 23500 it’s best to do nothing.
Invalidation is above 23600
short term: Neutral around 23500. Can’t get much more out of the chart right now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain. 20000 seems a bit much for 3 months left.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/26/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23607.50
- PR Low: 23545.00
- NZ Spread: 139.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | New Home Sales
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/26)
- Session Open ATR: 302.73
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Weekly Outlook | Aug 25–29, 2025Last week, buyers defended 23,067–23,150 and Powell’s speech fueled a massive short-covering rally, sending price right back to our macro pivot at 23,550. That level now defines the battleground.
🔹 Upside Roadmap:
23,550 = Weekly Pivot
Above → 23,700 (old breakout base)
23,850 minor extension
24,063 swing high
24,400+ final weekly upside target
🔹 Downside Roadmap:
23,335 first support
23,249 Thursday close
23,067 must-hold higher low
22,760 deeper downside
📌 Plan:
Hold above 23,550 = long bias into 23,700+.
Reject 23,550 and lose 23,335 = downside rotation.
💡 Discipline is key: trade the reaction at 23,550, not your prediction.
NQ may pullback before creating new highsThe bulls want to push the market higher while the bear wants a 2nd leg down on the daily. PA loses 20EMA then reverses up and we are approaching September where catalyst will help push the market to create new highs. We may retrace from here then move up. My bias is super bullish however not eliminating the potential of a small retracement. i.e. 50% retracement then pushes up. Just my thought process. Cheers
Classic tug-of-war NASDAQBias: Still broadly bullish on the daily—no true downside displacement, and price hasn’t closed below the last impulse up. But… we failed to close above recent 2-month highs and are sitting right at weekly equilibrium.
Where we are: Price is coiling around the 4H BISI low ≈ 23,790.50, which also aligns with ~50% of the weekly range. Nested inside is a 1H BISI with a bullish 1H OB just beneath. Classic tug-of-war spot.
Areas of Interest:
Above: 23,929 → PDH 23,962.75 → 24,000 BRN → 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance).
Below: 23,713.50 (50% of 1H OB) → 23,596 → 23,501 → swing magnet 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high).
Tell: The last “new low” on 1H needed two candles to actually close below and did so weakly. That shows sell-side lacks displacement unless we break structure decisively.
What flips the switch (clear invalidation logic)
Bullish reclaim: 15–60m close back above 23,790–23,804 (ETH close 23,796.5 / RTH close 23,804) and hold on a retest → long side favored.
Bearish break: Clean 1H close below 23,713 (and acceptance under it) → short side favored; you’re below the 1H OB and the nested BISI.
Two actionable trade plans
(Use your 5m/1m execution: wait for displacement through the trigger, then take the FVG or OB retrace inside the HTF level.)
A) Reclaim-and-go LONG (higher-probability if we hold above weekly EQ)
Trigger: 15–60m close above 23,790–23,804, then a controlled retest that holds (wick below, body close back above).
Entry zone: 23,790–23,804 (retest of 4H BISI low / prior close cluster).
Invalidation (stop): Below 23,713 (under the 1H OB mid) or tighter under the swing that forms your 5m/1m FVG entry (your call on risk).
Conservative SL: 23,690–23,705 (below the OB body).
Profit targets:
T1: 23,929 (first buy-side pools / inefficiency fill)
T2: 23,962.75 (PDH)
T3: 24,000 (round-number magnet)
T4 (runner): 24,040–24,080 (upper imbalance)
Trade management: Partial at T1, move stop to BE after M5 market structure shift in your favor or after T1 prints. Keep a runner if displacement expands.
B) Breakdown-and-acceptance SHORT
Trigger: Clean 1H close below 23,713 and a retest rejection (can use a 5m FVG inside 23,713–23,730).
Entry zone: 23,713–23,730 (failed reclaim of 1H OB mid / underside of the 1H BISI).
Invalidation (stop): Above 23,790–23,804 (back inside/above the 4H BISI low and prior closes).
Tighter intraday SL can sit above the 5m swing that breaks down.
Profit targets:
T1: 23,596
T2: 23,501
T3 (optional intraday): 23,440–23,460 (prior 1H demand base, if visible on your feed)
T4 (swing only): 22,684.75 (D1 SIBI high)
Trade management: Take partial at T1, trail above last M5 LHs. If New York lunch compresses, be quick to pay yourself.
Why these are the right spots
23,790–23,804 is a decision box: 4H BISI low + ETH/RTH prior close cluster + weekly EQ. Acceptance above = trend continuation likely; rejection = continuation of the rotation lower.
23,713.50 is the line in the sand intraday: it’s the 50% of your 1H OB and sits just beneath the 1H BISI. Lose it and you’ve removed the nearby bullish sponsor, opening the path to 23,596/23,501.
The lack of downside displacement on the last “new low” keeps a bullish continuation on the table—until we get that decisive 1H break/acceptance below 23,713.
Execution tips
Time-of-day: favor NY AM session for your displacement signal; Monday often ranges → reduce size until one side wins (as you noted).
Trigger discipline: do not anticipate the reclaim/break. Wait for the 15–60m close, then execute on 5m/1m FVG back into the level.
Risk: if trading the same idea across multiple accounts, stagger entries (one at level, one at 50% of the M5 FVG).
Quick reference (levels)
Bullish above: 23,804 → 23,929 → 23,962.75 → 24,000 → 24,040–24,080
Neutral box: 23,790.5 (4H BISI low / weekly EQ) ± a few ticks
Bearish below: 23,713.5 → 23,596 → 23,501 → 22,684.75
NQ - August 22, 2025 - lunchtimePowell's comments at Jackson Hole symposium sent the market soaring.
FUNDAMENTALS : Powell signalled being more concerned about employment and leaned towards the idea that tariff driven inflation wouldn't persist. Result, markets are now pricing in a rate cut for September.
TECHNICALS : If the daily closes above 23,400 its looking good for the bulls.
Good trading :)
NQ Short (08-18-25)Friday did not lift and the O/N is at low, look for anu reg session selling to gain some strength under the DZ. Looking for 400 point range this week and break lower can move 1,000 points under the DZ. Expect Tricks/Tweets (damage spin) and more Tweets early this week. Low volume buying should turn into high volume selling. Washington Street Asset Management will have its work cut out over the next month or so and may be why we got propped up.
NQ - August 22 2025 - Before the open
So yesterday was an inside day, which means we traded inside the previous days range (failed to break previous days high or low).
23,000 is a very strong support. If it breaks with conviction there is no real support until about 22,500.
FUNDAMENTALS : I think we will need a strong fundamental reason for 23,000 to break down. Something such as Powell saying they wont cut rates in September. The market is keeping an eye on inflation data and employment because these will determine if they cut or not.
Rate cut scenarios:
1. If inflation spikes due to tariffs as we saw in most recent PPI report, I think they may hold rates.
2. If employment drops a lot (bad NFP report, most importantly unemployment rate goes up) that may force them to cut in September.
3. If inflation drops near 2%, they will likely cut in September regardless of if employment data is good or bad.
***Keep in mind the market is sort of expecting inflation due to tariffs, so if inflation holds steady or is slightly better than expected that maybe enough for them to cut in September.
TECHNICALS : So far we have strong buying near 23,000 level but for the last 3 days buyers are lacking conviction at lower and lower prices. (Selling near 23,300).
Good trading :)
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/22/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23250.25
- PR Low: 23223.25
- NZ Spread: 60.5
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 8/22)
- Session Open ATR: 283.49
- Volume: 20K
- Open Int: 280K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -3.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Started Retracing Last Week. Will It Continue?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ reached ATHs Tuesday, and retraced for the rest of the week. Will there be some
follow through to open next week? Wait for the market to tip its hand and show you strength or weakness.
If the highlighted +OB fails, look for sells.
If the OB holds, buys until a bearish BOS takes place.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Nasdaq Bounces Off Demand Zone: Opportunities for a Bullish Rev.Yesterday, the Nasdaq experienced a notable rebound from the daily demand zone around 23,201, signaling buying interest at that level. However, as the EU trading session commenced, the index quickly shifted to a bearish impulse, reflecting ongoing market uncertainties and cautious sentiment among traders.
Key Levels and Opportunities
Despite the short-term pullback, the chart presents a compelling opportunity for traders to consider a "buy low" approach near the next demand zone at approximately 22,983. If the market finds support there, it could set the stage for a recovery, with the potential for the Nasdaq to rally back toward the 24,000 mark or even higher.
Market Outlook and Analyst Projections
Analysts remain optimistic about the index’s prospects, with many projecting a strong finish to the year. The Nasdaq, known for its volatility and lucrative trading opportunities, continues to attract traders seeking to capitalize on its upward momentum. As always, projections are optimistic, but the current technical setup suggests that there could be a favorable risk/reward ratio for those willing to position for a rally.
Final Thoughts
In a market characterized by rapid shifts and unpredictable moves, identifying key demand zones and monitoring reaction levels is crucial. The upcoming sessions could provide a prime entry point for those looking to buy dips, with the potential for the Nasdaq to forge ahead into the year’s final stretch with gains.
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Nq & Es Key levels & Scenarios 21-08-2025Good morning everyone,
My overall bias remains bearish, but at the moment we are trading within a discount area. This means that with the market open at 09:30 NY time, we may see potential high-probability long setups, with the main target being the SIBI on the daily chart.
So while the broader bias is to the downside, it is important to also take advantage of short-term moves to the upside, as price may need to rise first before continuing lower.
Wishing you all a successful trading session.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
DG rundown of a trade setup and bottoming processAs always the focus shall be on two timeframes : In the chart above (NQ September contract), the daily TF is on the left and 60M TF on the right. We have inserted manually key weekly and monthly levels (HTF terminations) in order to monitor/confirm a potential bottoming process. This is done automatically with the All-in-one indicator.
The bottoming process is defined as a first close above the upcoming or “live” EBOT. Remember also that a Zone/Area holds when the close is in the Zone/Area. And only then Area 1 needs to become strong support, then Area 2 needs to follow by becoming support.
You can see on the hourly chart how the first candle demonstrated a strong down flow (long range; huge distance between open and close; close almost at extreme).
As we are not at a key HTF area but in between, we do nothing and wait for the close. The hourly will need 2-3 hourly candles closes before confirming a bottoming process (2-3 rule on all timeframes). Price is also far away from the PLdot so we also need to wait for the PLdot to "catch up" with price.
Second hourly candle is also down with good flow, albeit smaller range so potentially first indication of minor change of flow, reaching key terminations (weekly and monthly) and closing below the upcoming EBOT so no bottoming yet.
However, the PLdot is “swinging” downwards which could be interpreted as a first sign of an exhaust. Both of candle 1 and 2 are c-waves down.
Next candle is finding support @ key HTF areas and closes above the upcoming EBOT and stops the c-waves down. This candle also allowed the PLdot to catch up with the price.
This candle goes for the PLdot refresh, first to the live EBOT, then static EBOT then the live PLdot and finally static PLdot which confirms the refresh of new energy that pushes the price to close lower than the static PLdot almost at the place of the live PLdot. Remember how the closes are always important and how the live energy is always most relevant at the end of the time frame – for the hourly candle that would be in the last 30-15 minutes before the candle closes. So, a first safe entry would be LONG at the close of this candle. The conservative stop loss could be the static EBOT while another option would be the live EBOT.
A more aggressive entry would be to go down to the 5 minutes timeframe and monitor around the HTF terminations the flow there and notice the spot where the c-waves stop (yellow box). Stop loss would be the blue line in this case.
The fourth candle is a congestion entrance candle that provide a target of two PLdots back around 23362 which aligns with the daily static EBOT. This would be the target for the trade.
The fourth candle closes below the ETOP so no c-waves yet, and the candle afterwards manages to close above the PLdot, still confirming the trend and finally
the fifth candle starts a c-wave, hits the planned target
Duration in trade - 4h (four candles after entry).
What is next:
We are in a daily PLdot refresh coming from the static EBOT. Either the refresh fails to break static EBOT and the daily down c-wave continues. The 60 minutes needs to start up c-waves in this area in order to confirm up-flow, otherwise the daily needs to have the 2-3 candles (2-3 days) to confirm bottoming. Daily is still in a c-wave down. As you can see, the daily needs to go through exactly what the hourly did in this example in order to start its bottoming process.
You can use this on any timeframe, monitor and learn.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/21/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23342.50
- PR Low: 23313.25
- NZ Spread: 65.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 8/21)
- Session Open ATR: 289.20
- Volume: 29K
- Open Int: 280K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 24382
- Mid: 23239
- Short: 22096
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ1! ATH or what???NQ1! ATH or what?
optimism coming back or no? Chyna CHyna CHyna? or no CHyna? let us know~~
we caught april bottom now run ATH?
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