Monday NQ Daily Plan | August 18, 2025NQ Daily Plan | August 18, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
Market Context
On Friday, NQ continued to coil below 24,000, with an RTH profile that leaned b-shaped (long liquidation).
Overnight action set up balance around 23,750–23,950, echoing the broader multi-day consolidation following the CPI-driven breakout.
The 5D VPOC has shifted higher into the 23,875 area, which confirms short-term strength in the context of last week’s breakout. Value is moving higher with price — bullish unless acceptance back inside old balance occurs.
The current 3-day balance range runs from 23,750 up to 23,975–24,000 (balance high).
Balance Guidelines (Applied to NQ)
In balance, fade extremes (short near highs, long near lows) unless strong acceptance develops.
Breakouts:
Sustained trade above 24,000 = follow buyers higher into discovery.
Sustained trade below 23,750 = follow sellers lower toward downside magnets.
Failed Breakouts:
If price pokes outside balance but returns inside, bias shifts to target the opposite end of balance.
Key NQ Levels for Monday
Level Context / Bias
24,050 (FUT) Final Upside Target if breakout holds
23,975–24,000 (UT2) Balance High / Breakout Trigger
23,925–23,950 (UT1) First upside resistance / acceptance zone
23,800–23,825 Pivot Support (line in the sand)
23,750 Lower edge of 3-day balance
23,700–23,675 (DT1) Support if balance fails
23,550 (FDT) High Volume Node / Downside Magnet
🎯 Trade Scenarios
Bullish (Continuation of Breakout)
Hold above 23,800–23,825 → push into 23,925 → 23,975–24,000.
Acceptance above 24,000 opens 24,050+ (FUT).
Bearish (Failed Breakout / Breakdown)
Lose 23,800 / 23,750 → rotate down to 23,700–23,675.
Sustained selling opens test of 23,550 (FDT).
Neutral (Balance Rotation)
Between 23,750–23,950, expect chop → fade extremes until news or order flow confirms breakout.
Confirmation via VIX & Macro
Watch VIX 16.0 / 14.0 equivalents in NQ volatility measures.
A breakout above 24,000 with volatility compressing = stronger confirmation.
Breakdown below 23,750 with volatility expanding = confirmation of weakness.
Monday’s NAHB Housing Index (10 AM ET) and overnight China/Japan data may provide early catalysts.
Summary for Monday:
NQ sits inside a 3-day balance (23,750–23,975).
Above 24,000 → breakout continuation toward 24,050+.
Below 23,750 → sellers target 23,700 then 23,550.
Expect rotations within balance until housing data or broader macro headlines provide direction.
