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BITQ2025 trade ideas

Thinking about system hopping while learning to trade?Thinking about system hopping while learning to trade? Here are some of the thoughts I transmit to my students on the implications: 1️⃣Consistency is key: Jumping from one trading system to another can hinder your progress. Developing expertise requires time, practice, and disciplined execution of a proven strategy. Stick to a system that resonates with you and give it a fair chance. Trading is all about probabilities and you need to allow for enough data to let the edge manifest itself over time. 2️⃣Understanding market dynamics: Each trading system is designed to capitalize on specific market conditions. By frequently switching systems, you might miss out on understanding the nuances of different market environments and the system's effectiveness within them. 3️⃣Emotional roller-coaster: Constantly switching systems can lead to emotional turmoil and indecision. Building confidence in your trading approach takes time. Sticking to one system allows you to master it and navigate market fluctuations with a steady mindset. If you keep changing you will eventually lose your money, your mind... and your way. 4️⃣Learning curve delays: Switching systems resets your learning curve. Consistently studying and fine-tuning one strategy helps you grasp its intricacies, identify potential pitfalls, and develop strategies to overcome them. Embrace the learning process. Think about how long it takes to learn something properly. Now imagine resetting constantly back to zero. 5️⃣Data-driven evaluation: Rather than system hopping, analyze your trading performance systematically. Keep a trading journal, review your trades, identify areas for improvement, and make adjustments within your chosen system. Data-driven decisions yield better results. Remember, finding success in trading requires discipline, persistence, and a well-executed plan. Avoid the temptation of quick fixes and stay committed to mastering your chosen system. 📈💸
CME:BTC1!Education
by AlexSoro
1
47k Coming for Bitcoin?$Bitcoin #CME 1D chart; The gap formed by the opening last week has not yet been filled. I think the rise will not start before this place is filled. The Bat Harmonic structure, which is also formed in the current structure, points us to $ 47k levels. It is difficult to say anything clear if it will come true. However, we should not forget that this possibility also exists. Bitcoin had received an upward reaction with the support it received with its last visit to the IMB level. However, as can be seen, it has not yet made any contact with the IMB zone at $ 47k levels. It doesn't always touch these areas, of course, but why not:)
CME:BTC1!Short
by ugurtash
Bitcoin - Is it ready to challenge the top of its 3-year channelI will confess I am not great at Elliott wave but does anyone else view the sideways to lower price action on Bitcoin as an ‘a-b-c’ pattern? If it is, we should see the market head back up to the recent peak at 74415 and the top of the 3-year channel at 76760 #bitcoin #elliotwave #technicalanalysis #markets Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
Bitcoin CME Futures capI am seeing a cap between 57895 to 60845 in Bitcoin CME Futures chart. These caps tend to get filled or retested and it can mean that there is a pullback to happen before Bitcoin reaches to 69500. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and this analysis does not take into account your individual financial situation or investment objectives. Any financial decision you make based on this information are solely your responsibility. Please consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME:BTC1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn8108892
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin From K1 to K3, it is a three soldiers advancing pattern, K3 close below the long-term uptrend line. It is a bad signal for the long-term holders. It seems that the following candles will keep falling to test the neck line. The problem for the bull force is lacking enough demands. If the following candles fall to test the 0.382-0.5Fib area to find enough demands, The bull market will likely recover its strength. The potential valuable area to increase long positions at about 58-54K. I still think it is a long-term bull market, But it must be verified by the following candles. If the following candles close below the neck line, the risk will sharply increase.
CME:BTC1!
by nothingchangehere
CME - Giant Gap OpenedWith BTC's recent pump over the weekend we have seen a gap form. We have been monitoring these gaps in this price rage as they have been extremely relevant and usually get filled. Here is that previous post: Of course, some major world events have lead to this increase in price most likely on the increased probability Trump becomes president, but either way this is how the chart has been painted. If this gap is to be filled over the next couple days it is probably the last time we see $58k before the FWB:73K level is broken. Prepare for major volatility this week as BTC/ALTs begin to break their downtrends and start to establish new uptrends.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC. We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto. May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top. First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases (Letters A - C) A The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings. It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure. ------- B $ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume. CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in. These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts. Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant. ($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.) ------- C 2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done. Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore. It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating. It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout. Have a great weekend!!! (pls see profile for more info)
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC is down >10%; Is this a buy-the-dip moment?Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good buy, and just because something is expensive does not mean it is a sound investment. This investment adage applies to Bitcoin (“BTC”) ever more so than now. Bitcoin prices dropped 11% over the past week, triggered by substantial BTC sales by the German government. Concerns loom about the forthcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which are likely to increase near term supply. Persistent downward pressure is anticipated as further sales are pending. Yet BTC ETFs are witnessing significant inflows, indicating that investors are capitalizing on lower prices. This paper explores a hypothetical spread trade involving short micro BTC futures and long micro-ETH futures, given the near term headwinds facing BTC and the tailwinds of ETF approval imminent for ETH. BTC DECLINES 11% DUE TO LARGE SALES BTC prices have plummeted by 11% since July 1st, breaching the critical USD 60,000 support level and 200-day moving average. This sharp decline was propelled by a series of negative factors: 1) German government liquidating its BTC holdings: The German government has been liquidating its BTC holdings which were seized by the German police earlier this year. The government has already liquidated 10,000 BTC (USD 550 million at current prices) since mid-June. Crucially, the German government still holds more than 42,000 BTC (USD 2.3 billion) which could have a major impact on markets if sold. The consistent outflows to exchanges in July suggests the impact could be felt in the near term. 2) Mt. Gox begins repayments: On Friday 5/July, Mt. Gox stated that it had started transferring BTC and BCH to its customers 10 years after the exchange was hacked. More than 47,000 BTC was moved out of the Mt. Gox cold wallets on 5/July, suggesting the repayments are ongoing. Given the size of the transfer, the impact could be substantial. While the repayments will take place in a staggered manner, most customers are expected to receive their BTC within the next six months. Aggregate repayments will total up to 140,000 BTC. 3) Large Long Liquidations: Due to the sharp market moves in the past week, BTC derivatives saw large liquidations for both long and short positions. However, the overall liquidations were much larger last week. BTC longs worth more than USD 210 million were liquidated on 4/July and 5/July. The large liquidations further exacerbated the decline. Large short liquidations over the past 12 hours suggest volatility persists in both directions. Source: CoinGlass 4) Fear Sentiment Dominates BTC: BTC’s fear and greed index has rapidly fallen to its lowest level in the past year. Over the past month, sentiment has shifted rapidly from extreme greed to fear. Heightened fear sentiment could impact the resilience of BTC holders. At the same time, periods of extreme fear can also represent buying opportunities. Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index Long-term BTC holders (HODLers) who have not moved their tokens in more than 1Y have been remarkably resilient so far. Although the balance from this cohort has declined 7% YTD, it has been due to GBTC outflows, the impact of which was absorbed by other ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC. As sentiment swings the other way given the current sharp decline, more holders could start to sell their BTC. 5) BTC ETFs saw huge inflows last week: Following a mixed June which saw outflows from BTC ETFs total USD 1 billion, ETFs are once more seeing inflows. Since 27/June, more than USD 200 million have flowed. The largest inflow was on Friday 5/July, when price fell sharply. This suggests ETF buyers are using the price corrections as an opportunity to buy more BTC. This presents a potential bullish driver for BTC if prices fall too low. ETH RELATIVELY RESILIENT AS ETF APPROVAL BECOMES IMMINENT Mint Finance covered the relative outperformance of ETH to BTC in a previous paper . Approval for ETH ETFs is imminent. Bloomberg analysts previously suggested that approval could come through in early July. However, due to delays and re-filings, the updated approval deadline according to Bloomberg analysts is currently 15/July. Recent re-filings with the SEC showed minimal changes in the applications suggesting the applications are close to their final form and should be ready to trade within next few weeks. ETH ETF approval will drive spot buying and support ETH price. This is likely to drive specific outperformance of ETH relative to BTC. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC faces multiple near-term headwinds. However, a directional position may be inadvisable given the bargain buying for ETFs and the sizeable, short position liquidations as price recovered on 8/July. Volatility remains high which presents a risk to a directional short position. Instead, investors can opt for a spread trade consisting of a bullish view on ETH and a bearish view on BTC. The spread trade effectively balances out price movements by offsetting declines in one cryptocurrency with gains in another. This approach provides investors with exposure to the relative performance of BTC and ETH. The recent decline in price has led to a decline in the ETHBTC ratio offering a compelling entry point to benefit from the ETF approval while maintaining a bearish view on BTC. The following hypothetical trade setup combines a long position in 19 x METN2024 and a short position in 1 x MBTN2024. • Entry: 0.05295 • Target: 0.05750 • Stop Loss: 0.05050 • Reward to Risk: 1.75x Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.85. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly. Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 52,280 at a ratio of 0.05228 as of May 31). These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs. Liquidity on the EBR contract is lower than the MET and MBT contracts for now. Volumes in the EBR contract saw a strong uptick in June suggesting greater investor activity in these futures. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBTN2024Short
by mintdotfinance
BTC: Buying in the Dip?CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! ) Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th. Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January, German police seized 50,000 bitcoins in connection with the prosecution of movie piracy operation Moview2k. Last week, they began selling thousands of bitcoins, adding to the current selloff pressure. Last Friday, CME Bitcoin Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) settled at 56,685, a drawdown of more than $15,300 or -21% since June. CME Ether Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) closed at 2,997, down $900 or -23% in a month. Both cryptocurrencies are still up about 25% year-to-date. Opinion: Bitcoin May Rebound and Reach New High The big selling from Mt. Gox and the German government temporarily increased available bitcoin supply in the spot market, pushing its prices down. Both sellers could dump tens of thousands more bitcoins to the open markets in the coming weeks. However, total bitcoin supply is still capped at 2.1 million. The recent halving event in April reduced newly mined bitcoin coming to market while increasing the cost of mining. Meanwhile, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially with bitcoin ETF funds. Once the dust is settled, we will have a market with limited supply and increasing demand. This is an economic formula for higher prices. Unlike previous market downturns, the recent drawdown in bitcoin prices is not necessarily reflective of a bearish view from investors. The trustee managing Mr. Gox asset needs to sell bitcoins to make investors whole, ten years after its bankruptcy. The German government sells bitcoins also mainly for legal reasons. Investors are not panicking. On the contrary, we hear that the founder of blockchain platform TRON offered to pay $2.3 billion to the German government for its entire bitcoin holding. This proposed private transaction is aimed at minimizing market volatility. Additionally, escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East also draw investors to cryptocurrencies, to diversify and hedge their assets. We can find validation from CFTC Commitment of Traders report. As of June 25th, total open interest (OI) for CME Bitcoin Futures is 32,277 contracts. Asset managers has 17,531 contracts in long position, vs. only 493 contracts in short position. The 35-to-1 long-short ratio indicates strong bullish view from long-term bitcoin investors. Overall, I hold the view that bitcoin would come out of the current downturn relatively quickly and would rebound and potentially reach new highs before the end of the year. Long Futures with Put Protection On May 6th, I published the idea, “HODL with a Twist”, and explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in bitcoin for the long haul. Last Friday, the September Bitcoin Futures contract (BTCU4) was settled at 57,695. Each contract has a notional value of 5 bitcoins, or a market value of $288,475. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $69,234. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1. It’s cost-effective investing with CME bitcoin futures, vs. buying bitcoins from bitcoin spot market or the ETF funds. From bitcoin price history, we learn that it tended to reach new highs after market downturns. However, each drawdown could be very significant, and at times well over 50%. Today, as I reconfirm my bullish view, I also want to add protective put options to hedge our long futures position due to the risk of short-term market correction. Last Friday, put strike at 50,000 for the September BTC contract was settled at 2,485. A trader will pay $12,425 (= 2,485 x 5) upfront to buy a put option. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with protective put strategy differs from buying spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF. Hypothetical Trade: • Buy 1 BTCU4 contract at 57,695, and set a stop loss at 50,000 • Buy 1 put option on BTCU4 at the 50,000-strike for $12,425 • Trader pays $69,234 initial margin for futures and $12,425 for put options, totaling $81,659 Scenario 1: Bitcoin drops to $36,000 • This is 50% drawdown from the high price reached in June • Futures stop loss at 50,000, and the loss incurred in futures account will be $38,475 (= (57695-50000) x 5) • Put options become exercisable at 50,000, and the gain will be $70,000 (= (50000-36000) x 5) • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $31,525 (= 70000 – 38475) • Investment return will be +38.6% (= 31525 / 81659) • Comparison: With no leverage, investing in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will lose 50% Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises to $80,000 • This price will be a new record, which is 7.4% above all time high reached in March • Futures gain will be $111,525 (= (80000-57695) x 5) • Put options will expire worthless • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $99,100 (= 111525 – 12425) • Investment return will be +121.3% (= 99100 / 81659) • Comparison: each bitcoin gains $22,305 (= 80000-57695). Investment return in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will be +38% (= 22305 / 57695) The above scenarios show that • when bitcoin goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leveraged nature. • when bitcoin falls, protect put will kick in to reduce losses and may make a profit. There are also risks in this strategy: • If bitcoin goes up only modestly, futures return will lag spot bitcoin investment because of the added cost of the options premium; • If bitcoin falls but stays above 50000, futures loss will be bigger than spot bitcoin investment, since the put options could not be exercised. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Reverie about the next bear market for BTC.I had shared my target for BTC’s target CME:BTC1! in the long term. Now, what do I expect after reaching that target? As you can see, I lean towards the idea that BTC will enter a bear market after reaching 100k, so I'm not expecting 140k. However, it could happen if you use a logarithmic chart. This is a non-logarithmic chart. After reaching the PO3 target, the price will consolidate there, and then a bear market will begin. BTC, like any instrument, tends to fill its gaps. I've shown the gaps and filled gaps on the chart. Perhaps the next bear target for BTC is 9k. Who knows?
CME:BTC1!Long
by H-A_T