Crude oil futures probable price movementsCrude oil futures probable price movements. we can see an up movement in price above the levels
NOLF2026 trade ideas
dangerous but plausable long trade, enter immediatly 1->4 :
* number 3 closes above number 1,
number 2 is solid low, number 4 we return
next?
* danger of a double top, but the latest candle is
bullish and closing above a stacked imbalance,
furthermore the red candle closes above its poc
showing exploratory efforts by buyers
* bullish divergence rsi and mfi
* fib retracement from 2->3 shows red cadle
piercing 0.62->0.79
* multiple fractal level dPOC shows same area ,
red candle pierce
*anchored vwap shows volume disinterest at level
4, sellers dont have the power to push below.
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Today's daily crude oil chart saw a small rebound, in line with our expectations yesterday. Crude oil remains bearish, and rebounds present opportunities for further shorting. Focus on selling around 64.50 today. This trend has been consistent for several months, and the price has been oscillating around this level for several months. Don't be too fussy about trading; take profits and sell. The key to a volatile market is the rhythm and position.
Fundamental Analysis:
There are no major fundamentals or data this week, only standard data. Focus on the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00
WTI(20250924)Today's AnalysisMarket Analysis:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, but allows the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments; tariffs are expected to have a one-time pass-through effect; and decisions will "never be based on political considerations." Fed spokespersons noted that Powell's comments indicate that he believes interest rates remain tight, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
63.01
Support and Resistance Levels:
65.01
64.26
63.77
62.24
61.75
61.01
Trading Strategy:
On a break above 63.77, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 64.26.
On a break below 63.01, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 62.24
Crude Oil MCX Future Intraday Analysis - 24 Sept., 2025MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Crude Oil is consolidating near 5,658 after a sharp upside move, reacting to mapped levels designed for intraday momentum traders.
Long Trade Logic
Long Entry (5,605):
Enter long above 5,605, as prior resistance now acts as support. Momentum buyers may lift prices further if this level holds on a retest.
Consider adding near 5,580 for pyramiding if price action sustains above this band.
Targets (5,761 / 5,840):
First target (5,761): Anticipate supply at previous swing high where price faced resistance earlier.
Second target (5,840): Upper resistance mapped from previous session’s range extremes, expect potential profit-taking.
Stop Loss Placement:
Keep stops below 5,555 to mitigate risk, as breakdown here signals failed uptrend and may trigger aggressive selling.
Short Trade Logic
Short Entry (5,555):
Go short beneath 5,555, as breach of this level breaks the structure and signals bears regaining control.
Targets (5,503 / 5,424):
Target 1 (5,503): Previous intraday pivot, where covering and bounce attempts may emerge.
Target 2 (5,424): Deeper support—if hit in momentum, expect further liquidation.
Short Exit / Stop:
Exit shorts above 5,634 (Short Exit) to avoid whipsaw. Indicates failed breakdown and recovery by bulls.
Neutral Zone & Structure Logic
Neutral Zone (5,632):
Price trading in 5,632 zone signals indecision; best to avoid new trades unless decisive break above/below occurs.
Structural View:
The recent rally and subsequent pullback to the mapped levels provides a framework for range-based or momentum trades.
Volume confirmation near entry levels is suggested for sustaining positions.
This chart logic ensures discipline, risk management, and clarity for both breakout and reversal-oriented trading approaches on MCX Crude Oil Futures intraday.
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WTI(20250922)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Federal Reserve Board Governor Milan: Expects continued rate cuts in the coming months and will work to convince other policymakers to cut more quickly; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
62.58
Support and Resistance Levels:
63.70
63.28
63.01
62.15
61.87
61.45
Trading Strategy:
If the market breaks above 62.58, consider buying, with the first target at 63.01.
If the market breaks below 62.15, consider selling, with the first target at 61.87
CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) – 1H ChartPrice rejected the supply zone near 64.70 and broke structure below 64.00.
Expecting a pullback, then continuation down to the 62.30–61.50 area.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Entry: Below 64.00
TP: 62.36 / 61.48
SL: Above 64.75
Risk-Reward: Favorable setup
OIL Long Setup (A Setup)Oil is trading within a range, expecting to hit a two week high level as indicated in chart. I give it an 80% chance of reaching target, that is why I'm going full risk on this one.
Bearish setup for Crude OilWe saw Oil accumulating and this week potentially preparing for the move for lower prices.
I want to see Oil open first on Sunday, but my Short position will be in when we reach the Previous Month POC.
Caution! We might see some Trump tweets regarding Oil so volatility might be high!
Always remember, Caution, Patience and Risk!
GL!
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Looking for oil long!Oil could turn very strong starting tomorrow because Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar—a key Middle Eastern hub has sharply raised geopolitical risk around vital energy routes, and while today’s market reaction was limited, traders often price in these shocks with a lag; any escalation, threat to infrastructure, or renewed headlines could spark a strong rally as the market bakes in tighter supply expectations and higher risk premiums .
Oil Futures looking to runAfter hitting a double bottom at the 61.50 level, oil appears to be headed in a up trend.
Oil tests 20 SMA resistanceOil trades within a descending channel dating back to 2023. The price also trades below its 20, 50, and 200 SMA in a bearish trend. Oil faced rejection at the 50 SMA and rebounded lower before finding support at 61.50, the August low. The price has recovered higher and is testing the 20 SMA resistance and the mid-point of the descending channel.
Buyers will need to close above 63.50 to extend gains towards 65.00, the 50 SMA, and the September high. A rise above here creates a higher high and exposes the 200 SMA.
Selles will need to break below 61.50 to create a lower low and extend the bearish trend.
FC
return to proven buyers provides continuation cheap entry 1->4 : return to number 2 proven buyers
next :
* hidden bull rsi and mfi
* freq shifted touch of lin regression line
* poc defending buyers
*obv in uptrend
*pullback to vwap
Light Crude Oil | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDTLight Crude Oil Futures | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDT
Ressitance Zone: 63.55 – 63.00
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 63.55
Stop Loss: 63
Targets:
TP1 → 64.82
TP2 → 65.54
TP3 → 66.00
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 63
Stop Loss: 63.55
Targets:
TP1 → 62.37
TP2 → 61.85
Analysis:
Below Resistance Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again.
This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat.
The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact).
Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025
Current Price : $62.25
Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis
Executive Summary
WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup.
Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis
Institutional Positioning Intelligence
The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions:
Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50
Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation
Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range
Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone
Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period
Secondary Support Levels:
$60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support
$58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest
Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone
Resistance Structure Analysis:
$65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume
$68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution
$70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak
Price Structure Context
Historical Pattern Recognition:
The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal.
Critical Structure Points:
Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning
Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity
Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation
Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing
Execution Chart Technical Analysis
Current Technical Configuration
DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL:
Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25
Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50
Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange)
Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support
DMI/ADX Assessment:
ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement
+DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI
Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias
Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction
Stochastic Analysis:
Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal
Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum
Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Technical Levels:
Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line)
Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC)
Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary)
Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low)
Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach)
Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone)
Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
Required Conditions for Long Entry:
DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line
DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI
ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30
Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor
Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence
Entry Protocol:
Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover
Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement
Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals
Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation)
Profit Targets:
Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits
Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits
Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25%
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup
Short Entry Conditions:
DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line
Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor
DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI
ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias
Short Setup Parameters:
Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown
Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown)
Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones)
Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
Sideways Trading Framework:
Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone)
Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary)
Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary)
Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract)
Profit Target: Opposite range boundary
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Guidelines
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict)
Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.015 ÷ (Stop Distance × $10)
Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support)
Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach)
Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation)
Time-Based Risk Controls
Monitoring Requirements:
Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect
4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength
Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns
Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution
Market Context and External Factors
Fundamental Considerations
Supply/Demand Dynamics:
OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies
China demand recovery prospects
Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October)
Geopolitical Factors:
Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums
US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns
Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows
Seasonal Patterns
September-October Considerations:
End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand
Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions
Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive
Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness
Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels
Daily Monitoring Requirements
DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship
Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor
Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns
External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements
Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets
Critical Alert Levels
Bullish Alerts:
DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50
Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor
+DI reclaiming dominance over -DI
Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation
Bearish Alerts:
Break below $62.00 institutional floor
DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange)
Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50
ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning.
Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment.
Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect
Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention
Important Disclaimer
Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor.
Key Risk Considerations:
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis
Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly
Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly
Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework.
The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
Chopped into Indecision - Some Thoughts on jacesabr_real's queryIf you’ve even felt chopped up with your trading, particularly with a situation where no matter what you do you ‘feel like your stop is getting picked off’ then you would not be alone.
jacesabr_real reached out with such a challenge last week and so I’ve offered to share a few thoughts for what they're worth. Please feel free to take what resonates and ignore the rest.
here's the original idea post :
There are 3 areas a trader needs to understand and align with in order to be able to trade successfully:
Market - The market condition: Bull, Bear, Sideways, Quiet Volatile, etc
Method - Your process/strategy for engaging with the market (breakout, mean revert, etc)
Mindset
- The emotional state of the trader throughout the lifecycle of the trade
These 3 areas overlap and despite being last in the list, I suggest that Mindset is the most important as it underpins everything. The late (great) Dr Van Tharp (featured in the original Market Wizards book) used to say that Mindset accounted for 80% of performance but later amended that to 100%.
So I’ll address this from that focal point. The reason? It’s the mind from which the process/strategy is selected, the ‘impulse’ to trade emanates and then the lived experience resides.
If a trader is having challenges with being stopped out frequently - it can result in a trader feeling like…
‘They’re picking me off’
'I was ticked out'
'The idea hasn’t failed, I’m just going to get back in again'
And it's easy to get into a revenge cycle of ‘doing the right thing’ but suffering fractional loss accumulation that adds up to a decent sized (even catastrophic) loss.
Which can lead to a loss in confidence, energy and discipline.
It’s a slippery slope. Which can lead to behaviours such as moving stops, sizing up bigger to make back, taking stops off entirely - continuing to take more trades as one is feeling ‘invested’ in the idea by sheer virtue of time spent in the process. Continue like this - maybe we get lucky and get the odd win to flatten out. Over time however, the risk is Tilt.
As you will likely understand, this is a massive area, so, a few general points that I’ll invite you to consider:
Approach your trading in this order: Mindset → Market → Method
Your Mindset may start out strong but the Market will try to wear it down
Protect your Mindset at all costs
Build steps into the process to simplify decision making.
Be clear on your rules for entry, management and exit. If you're unclear - you'll ask questions of yourself in the moment of the trade when it's hard to think clearly.
Ensure there are rules around capital preservation.
Some Suggestions:
Don’t allow revenge trading to take over… create breaker switches. (i.e. walk away!, take breaks)
Allow a re-entry of the same idea as part of your Method… but cap the number of attempts at the same trade idea to preserve capital and sanity (to perhaps 2 or 3 attempts).
Don’t remove (or move) stops… ever. Always have a worst case stop for risk management
If you’re getting stopped out frequently but the trade idea ultimately goes in your favour then your stop may be too tight (more to do with Market & Method)
Use a larger worst-case stop… and reduce position size if necessary
Monitor changes in volatility for your market (the Market condition may have changed and require an adaptation to your stop sizing to accommodate
With regards to your specific questions the following thoughts came up for me.
Many of your what if scenarios suggest that you may still need to look at your method. Pick an exit mechanism and stick with it. Collect the data points that will help inform whether your strategy is positive expectancy or not. If you keep changing the variables its really tough to track what works and what doesn't.
Get to understand your strategy and the stats around it. What is ‘normal’ in the way of number of losses. I’d suggest that seeing 4-5 losses of the same trade type a number of times a week might be a lot.
Consider the language that you are using. I notice the phrase ‘suicide stop’. Consider what that does to psychology subliminally. Perhaps use something like ‘hard stop’ or ‘capital preservation stop’ to keep your emotional balance and professionalism in your craft.
I hope this is helpful.
return to resistance provides sell opportunity 1->4 : return to proven sellers
next ?
* 2nd deg. bear divergence rsi and mfi
*vwap 1st standard deviation
*vpoc
*inside bar and bearish bar (forming)
*stop order for sell
Crude Oil Idea of week 08-12/09/25This week I see Oil continuing lower with a potential bullish reaction after reaching lower price areas of interest. Monitoring price action on Monday to decide what we will attack and trade. I wouldn't be surprised if this week is choppy!
Always caution, patience and risk!
GL!
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Check Bio. Cheers!
Broad look at CL Futures Just mapping out CL Futures on weekly chart
This market has been range bound for more than a year buyers at $60 and sellers at $80
Last week finished weak and could be the catalyst for another test of the support area
Be patient wait for your set up and trade within tight risk parameters.
I have a dream - OIl below $50I have a dream OIl below $50
since US strike on Iran OIl hit $76 per barral for several days
after down only
I think that trend would go on
and in a case of reaching $50 per barrel WAr in Ukraine would stop
