quick selloff entry opportunity
* posting quickly so less explain.
* number 3 closed below 1= sellers
proof. Number 2 is proven sellers, stop
must therefore be there logically.Aim for
the previous major low
* look delta footprint, the green bar
before current is negative delta
* oversold + divergences
* obv break trendline
*+4 other tools in group 1 in drawings.
QOT1! trade ideas
Bottom Buying in GoldIn my recent analysis of Gold Futures, I spotted a classic bottom-buying opportunity on the hourly chart.
Gold was consolidating and testing support around the 50 EMA. Despite a flagpole pattern failure, I trusted the support level and managed my risk carefully. With a tight stop loss, I entered the trade right near the bottom retracement zone.
The result was impressive. Within just 2–3 hours, the trade delivered a strong profit, validating my setup and conviction.
At present, I am trailing my position with proper stop losses, ensuring that I capture as much of the ongoing trend as possible while protecting my gains. I’ll continue to maintain the trail as long as momentum stays active.
This setup reaffirms the value of sticking to disciplined technical analysis and executing with conviction, even when patterns appear to fail.
Gold Futures – Pullback Into H4 Supply Before Drop to Demand?Price sold off strongly from 3812 resistance and is now correcting higher. On the H4, I see a bearish supply zone between 3791.4–3769.9, which aligns with prior POC acceptance around 3790. If price pulls back into this area and fails, I expect continuation lower into the H4 demand zone at 3746.3–3735.2, which also lines up with Daily Low (DL) and Weekly High (WH) liquidity markers.
Levels to Watch:
Bearish H4 Supply: 3791.4–3769.9
Bullish H4 Demand: 3746.3–3735.2
Invalidation: Break & hold above 3795 could target 3812 liquidity.
Targets: First 3746.3, extended 3735.2.
Bias: Bearish pullback scenario into supply → downside continuation.
Gold Futures (GC) – “Top Is In” Schematic ReviewExecutive Snapshot 🧭
Primary stance: Bearish swing/top-in thesis (Wyckoff Distribution complete via UTAD).
Bias strength: High, while price remains below 3,825–3,860 and fails to accept above.
Game plan: Fade strength into supply; look for Phase D → E breakdown confirmation → target 3,534/3,509 → 3,209 → 3,123 then extended 2,970–2,795 if momentum accelerates.
Multi-Framework Confluence:
A) Wyckoff (your schematic) ♟️
Phases:
A/B: BC/ST established range highs; AR/SOW tagged mid/low of range.
C: UT → UTAD (new high on diminishing relative spread & mixed volume).
D (now): Throwback rallies holding beneath UTAD; look for LPSY near 3,760–3,825; failure → Phase E markdown.
Validation: Lower highs after the UTAD and repeated rejections of the supply shelf 3,760–3,825.
Confirmation trigger: Break and accept below ICE/Creek = 3,534–3,509 (your pink band) → distribution confirmed.
Macro Frame 🌐
Gold’s cyclical up-leg is extended; near-term macro supports a pause/reversion:
Real yields/beta & USD shocks can catalyze a value-seeking dip.
COMEX time-and-price run suggests heat above without equivalent build in value → mean-revert first, trend later.
Invalidation & Risk:
Hard invalidation (swing): Weekly close > 3,860 and acceptance above for 2–3 sessions (no swift rejection).
Soft invalidation (tactical): Daily close back inside 3,760–3,825 after a breakdown → step aside, wait for next LPSY.
Position/Risk Template:
Initial risk: above 3,825 (or 3,860 for wider swing).
Size: start ½–⅔ unit at first tag/reject; complete size on breakdown retest of 3,534–3,509.
Trailing: swing stop > last LPSY high once 3,534 is lost.
Momentum & Internals (Quick Read) ⚙️
RSI/ultimate RSI (your panels): persistent bearish divergence into UTAD zone.
MACD: high, curling; ripe for signal cross on daily if price slips under 3,600s → 3,534.
Squeeze/Momentum: elevated; release down would align with the distribution thesis.
Execution Checklist ✅
Pre-break:
Fade 3,760–3,825 on rejection candles/footprint absorption.
Track delta & volume—no expansion = stronger distribution read.
Break event:
Daily close < 3,534 → reduce discretion, execute plan; seek retest → LPSY to add.
Manage:
Cover +30–50 handles into 3,209–3,180; roll runner.
Data to watch: USD DXY spikes, GLD OI/put skew, dealer GEX flips around GLD 300.
One-Page Risk Map 🗺️
Bearish while: < 3,825–3,860.
Confirmation: < 3,534–3,509 (close/accept).
Targets: 3,209 → 3,123 → 2,970 → 2,795 → 2,541.
Stop/Invalid: > 3,860 w/ acceptance.
Marked UTAD and supply stack 3,760–3,825 present a clean risk-defined top. Until the market accepts above 3,860, the probabilistic path favors Phase E markdown back toward 3,2xx value and possibly the 2,9xx–2,795 extension if momentum breaks loose.
Gold Buy ModelAs we all know, gold has been trending up for quite some time now. With Fed Chair Roman Powell speaking about rate cuts in the future, this means that Gold is going to want to continue trending up.
Lower interest rates can also weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and increasing demand.
I do think gold will continue to trend higher, but I'd love to see a sweep of Asia session lows, potentially testing PDL before this happens. My area of interest is right around $3780 to $3775.
I Should Have Noticed This Pattern (Episode 1)
Just today I zoomed out on my GS chart and noticed for the first time this almost perfect triangle pattern. How did I completely miss this?
-There are many times in my short trading career that I have come across things I should have noticed. Whether it's chart patterns, correlation, volume spikes, or indicators indicating; I kick myself for my neglect!
-Now the least I can do is point out those mistakes and share them with you as I see them, in the hopes that more get noticed in the future.
-This is an example of a symmetrical triangle which is considered the most common type of triangle pattern. Despite the name, the triangle does not have to be symmetrical and like all patterns is evaluated in the approximate. Some imagination is required. Most triangles are a representation of consolidation before continuation, but can sometimes represent a top or bottom before reversal. When price does break out of a triangle, volume should spike and this example clearly shows that. This example also shows a false breakout which would have been discovered when closing for the day back "inside" the pattern. Also like all patterns, the larger the time interval, the more important the pattern. Daily and longer are preferred.
-Again this is what I see after the fact and far too late. I would not enter this trade now. Please let me know if I missed something or if you were able to trade this in real time and there was details that I left out. Also, did anyone make money on noticing this pattern? Am I mistaken in any way?
Do you feel stuck in trading?there's a big percentage of traders being stuck in their journey for the lack of understanding how God wants to bless you in finding a strategy . all we have to do is apply for what he already showed us if not ask where to look and go out there and become that successful trader and be a blessing!!
Looks like we might finally get some pressure released on GoldIve been looking for price to break down. it has been on a bull run for well over a week now. and all this week it has pushed up with no pullbacks at all. Looks like we might have hit the high for the week and we could be getting a pullback from here. Waiting to see if we can break the previous Daily low for more bearish pressure.
Gold Futures — Extended After Bullish Surge, Watching 4 PullbackYesterday’s move pushed gold aggressively higher with almost no retrace, leaving a string of unfilled imbalances below. Price is now pressing into 3780 levels, just shy of the psychological 3800 handle.
Key Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: If Asia/London hold above 3767, a squeeze into 3800–3810 is possible before any meaningful pullback.
Retracement Setup: A break under 3767 could trigger a retrace into 3743 → 3719 zone, aligning with prior resistance turned support.
Bigger Picture: Major 4H FVG remains untested below (around 3650–3660), which could act as a downside magnet later in the week.
Patience is key after such a vertical move — waiting to see if Tuesday gives us either continuation or that first retrace.
Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive.
Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields
Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver.
Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing.
Weak U.S. Dollar
When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand.
Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand
Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree.
The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)🟡 Gold Futures – Hedge Within a Larger Bullish Wave (Weekly)
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, gold has extended aggressively into the 2.618 Fib extension (~3,778), a level that historically marks exhaustion points in strong trends. Volume profile also shows a lack of heavy participation above, meaning this is an overextended zone that can invite corrections.
That said, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Gold has been in a secular uptrend, and each consolidation/throwback over the past decade has set up for higher highs. From a macro perspective, dips remain buying opportunities — but risk management matters when price stretches this far, this fast.
🔍 Long-Term Context
Gold has already cleared the 1.618 extension (~2,734) and ran nearly straight into the 2.618 (~3,778) without meaningful retrace.
Volume profile shows thin participation between ~3,200 and 3,600 — fast moves can cut both ways here.
Stronger long-term support sits around 3,390 (high-volume node) and further down at ~2,730 and ~2,090 (Fib levels + prior consolidation zones).
⚖️ Strategy Update
Long-term bias: Bullish. Macro backdrop (Fed easing cycle, fiscal imbalances, central bank buying) favors higher gold over time.
Short-term hedge: Valid. With price testing a 2.618 Fib extension, we expect corrective pullbacks before continuation. A hedge here reduces risk of giving back profits without abandoning the larger uptrend.
Plan: Maintain hedge positioning near 3,758–3,771 (as outlined in the short-term plan). If pullback develops, scale out at key supports (3,701 → 3,587 → 3,510). If price breaks and sustains above 3,790, hedge is invalid and we reset for long continuation.
📊 Perspective:
The weekly chart confirms why a hedge here makes sense — gold has run into a historically significant Fib extension with thin volume structure above. This doesn’t negate the long-term bull trend, but it increases the probability of a corrective throwback. Protecting gains with a short hedge while respecting the bullish macro bias keeps us balanced.
Gold Futures Hedge Update🟡 Gold Futures Hedge Update
Our previous short setup reached the first take profit, confirming that hedging into overextension made sense. Long-term bias on gold remains bullish, but short-term conditions still look stretched, and we’re preparing for another protective hedge.
This is not a bearish reversal call — the goal is to lock in gains and protect profits as gold presses into heavy resistance.
📍 Trade Setup (Short Hedge)
Entry (Short): 3,750 (Fib 1.618 extension + HVN resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 3,780 (above channel top + HVN cluster)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,700 – 3,685 (volume node / mid-channel support)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,587 (next HVN + structural support)
Take Profit 3 (Stretch): 3,510 – 3,500 (Fib retrace + channel low)
⚖️ Rationale
Gold has been overextended on the short-term chart, pressing into Fib and channel resistance with signs of stalling.
Volume profile highlights key support/resistance nodes that align with Fib levels.
Taking partial profits on the way down while keeping risk tight ensures the hedge protects without overcommitting against the dominant bullish trend.
📊 Plan: Scale into shorts near resistance with defined risk, peel off at TP1 and TP2, leave a runner for deeper correction potential. If gold breaks and holds above 3,790, hedge is invalidated and focus shifts back to long setups.
Tracking Stagflation with this Ratio - Crude, Copper, Gold RatioHow to Spot Stagflation?
One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio.
• Gold reflects real money and investor confidence.
• Copper tracks recession.
• Crude oil represents inflation pressures.
When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains.
What could trigger it?
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719).
Key Scenarios This Week:
Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out.
Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area).
Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
MGCZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21STLooking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading into or slightly below 3H BISI. Price should run energetically to break $3744.
Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below $3715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) before turning around.
IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $3706. Hold to see if price turn in the lower 3H SIBI instead. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower.
NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure.
NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 20 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $3723
CALENDAR EVENT
MON
- 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER
TUES
- 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH)
- 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH)
WED
- 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES
THUR
- 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH)
- 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES
FRIDAY
- 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH)
Final Note
- remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H
to confirm what side of the market you should be on.
- Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range.
Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots.
Max two trades per session.
TIME FOR RISKY ASSETS TO MOVE UP! after running for 2-3 years without a severe 30% pull back, this could play out for 2026 pt
if inflation kept low, fed interest rate cut 25 points on oct2025, war peace and regional calm? we can see 30% decline for gold YES. but as always:
DYOR
happy trading and happy profit taking
Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out.
🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24)
This is the most significant structure added:
Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780
In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation
📌 Key point:
A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction.
It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat.
💡 My note:
When I first encountered delta-neutral strategies like this as a Forex trader — my brain exploded.
No directional bias… yet clearly positioned for action?
That was the moment I realized: options are a different game.
🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850
Another key play:
A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850
Target: upside beyond current levels
But here’s the difference:
Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days.
This isn’t about volatility.
It’s a directional bet that gold will rise.
🧠 Bottom Line:
One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way."
Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon."
Are they aligned?
Contradictory?
Or could both win?
Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!
Liquidity Sell ModelTrade example from last week.
I wanted to show how the market cycles when it comes to liquidity. Usually price will create a decent high and low during the Asia session (Tokyo and Sydney). Once NY session opens, a sweep either above or below Asia session will occur before the true move occurs.
In this case, price swept above Asia session highs before dropping into SSL.