Trade ideas
GOLD: Bullish, But Retracing! Short Term Sell Opportunity!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Oct. 27 - 31st.
Gold is still bullish, the current pullback it's in notwithstanding. Waiting patiently for valid buy setups is the sure way to go.
That being said, there is sell setup that could present an short-term opportunity. The Daily -FVG is currently holding price in check. Should price return to it and it continues to hold, a valid sell opportunity could present itself.
Be careful, as it is counter-trend. They can be lower-probability.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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GC (Gold Futures): Towards $3900?This is MGC chart.
Current Market Situation
The chart shows MGC trading around $4,000 with a bearish outlook projected through the end of the week.
What We're Seeing
Price Movement:
- Price is trapped in a descending channel (purple trendlines)
- Currently attempting to push up near the $4,000 resistance zone
- Overall trend still shows downward pressure
This Week's Forecast:
- Tuesday (today): Might bounce up first, attempting a rally toward upper channel resistance
- Wednesday-Friday: Expected to reverse sharply and decline due to high impact news.
- Target: Down to $3,900 by end of week
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $4,008-$4,010 (current area)
- Support: $3,900 (primary target), $3,868 (secondary support)
- Upper purple trendline acts as dynamic resistance
Bottom Line
This setup anticipates a "bull trap" scenario - a brief rally that fails at resistance before resuming the downtrend. The trader expects gold to drop approximately $100+ over the next few days, staying within the descending channel pattern.
Risk Warning: If price breaks decisively above the upper purple trendline with strong volume, this bearish scenario would be invalidated and the trend could reverse bullish.
Short the Pop Near Intraday Highs — Gold Dec ’25Timeframe: 30m with 15m confluence
Symbol: COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Thesis
Price pushed into a confluence resistance area and printed rejection. I’m positioned short from ~ 3,980 , looking for a fade back toward mid/low-day supports unless we accept above the resistance shelf.
Confluence (15m + 30m)
Tag of the prior intraday high / supply shelf around 3,985–4,015 .
MA cluster overhead on the 30m near ~ 4,002 ; 15m shows momentum roll + rejection wicks after the push.
Lower-high structure maintained; guide line curling down with momentum dots flipping bearish after the probe.
Key Levels
Short/Supply Zone: 3,985–4,015
My Entry: ~3,980 (15m rejection confirmation)
Invalidation: 4,030 on a 30-min close (acceptance above = short thesis off)
Downside Targets: TP1 3,960 • TP2 3,930 • TP3 3,900
Trade Plan
Aggressive Adds (if re-test): Scale 3,985–4,015 on wick/rejection.
Stops: 4,032 (tighter, better R:R) or 4,038 (safer vs quick stop sweep above 4,030/4,035).
Management from my 3,980 entry:
TP1 3,960 → move stop to BE
TP2 3,930
TP3 3,900 → trail above successive lower highs
What I’m Watching
Rejection tells on 5–15m (upper wicks, bearish engulfing) under the MA cluster
Momentum divergence into 3,985–4,015
Mean-reversion fade into layered resistance with defined invalidation. I’ll take partials quickly and let a runner try for deeper levels. Not financial advice — manage your own risk. Written using ChatGPT
A Case Study: GOLD probable price ProjectionA Spectacular and exponential price movement was observed in GOLD for last 3 months.
A Mega BullRun is witnessed in the bullion market across the globe. Gold is considered as the best among multi asset classes. Especially in Indian subcontinent Gold is not only considered as precious metal which holds a greater value but also very auspicious .
Now lets dive deep into its price movement based on Demand Zone Concept.Accordingly how can we position ourselves to get most out of it.
Case1: Daily Demand Zone (DDZ)
If Price reaches Daily Demand Zone then there is high probability of accumulation is observed by market players. and if the price is considered as fair then it may move up. here we can see buying reaction.
Case 2: Weeekly Demand Zone (WDZ)
If price reaches Weekly Demand zone then some more accumulation occurs and then price moves up.
Now the question arises that if we see good buying at daily demand zone then why should price reach weekly demand zone. to understand this i explained briefly about different market players in the follwing link.
How perfectly market players defend their positions is clearly seen in this chart . Please go through it.
WDZ 1 & WDZ 2:
These are the zones where gold was accumulated.
Case 3: Monthly Demand Zone (MDZ)
If ever price reaches this zone it shall be a good level to invest .
Note : price movement may not be as swift as it was in last 3 months.
GC Futures – Are We Flipping Bearish Into Midweek?Tuesday closed below Monday’s low, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment.
Currently, price is approaching a 1H FVG inside the prior Asian range, just below the Weekly Low (W-L) and Daily High (D-H) — a perfect liquidity pocket.
I’m watching for signs of rejection here to confirm a bearish continuation. If price holds above this area, we may see a short squeeze back into higher value.
Bias remains bearish, but confirmation is key.
What are you seeing here — are we setting up for continuation or a fakeout?
#Gold #Futures #GC #DayTrading #SmartMoney #OrderFlow #ICT #NoFOMO
GOLD POSTING SELL TD COMBO 13On October 2, a NINE setup was completed. The setup started on September 22.
TDST is at 3705.8 (Friday September 19, close)
TD COMBO day 13 was completed on Monday October 20 at the close 4359.4
A overbought are are is thus established
The support of the structure TDST is at 3705.8
The markets are overbought and I am looking for them to go lowerSunday the 26th and I'd like to talk about gold and silver and the market in general since it is oversold an equities and gold and silver can go lower but it doesn't necessarily mean the end of gold and silver. In the video I show why gold could go lower and to me it's a function of markets expanding and contracting if gold makes a new high I would expect for it to correct and that's not bad and it's not the end of gold and silver. If you're listening to my stuff you want to look at the market as having buyers and sellers and you need to know where they are within reason and you should be thinking in terms of patterns.
Gold Futures (MGCZ25) – Monthly Close SetupPrice has ranged all week between 4040 and 3930. With an H4 FVG still sitting above, we might see one last liquidity grab before the next directional move.
⚖️ Neutral bias for now — watching for clean displacement at range extremes.
📍 If price reclaims 4040 → possible push into the H4 FVG.
📍 If it rejects and drops below 4020 → lower FVG fills toward 3930 could be next.
#Gold #Futures #ICT #MarketStructure #NOFOMO
Can Gold Rival ATHs?Early last week, we finally saw the much anticipated correction on Gold. This move was likely a liquidation event, shaking out a wave of over-leveraged long positions that had built up during the prior rally.
On the 4H timeframe, price consolidated and accumulated for most of the week following that flush, suggesting that the market may now be rebuilding liquidity for its next major leg.
With weak hands cleared and positioning reset, Gold could now be preparing to retest its ATHs and possibly break into new territory if momentum and fundamentals align.
GOLD REVERSAL Hello! Been on a holiday and am back.
Here is a swing trade on GOLD after a good fall and retracement. Gold has made a hammer on the daily timeframe. One can look for a reversal from here.
Entry- 119000-118800
Target- 120500, 121000, 121700
STOP- The low of hammer candle.
Note- You may enter as close as the low of the hammer candle.
Disclaimer- This is just for educational purpose
Jai Shree Ram.
short term bias Buy Entry Model🔴 Supply Zones (Potential Short Entry Areas)
Major Supply: 4,360 – 4,400
Origin of the strong sell-off.
Clean imbalance and strong bearish move afterward.
If price retraces back here, it’s a high-probability short zone.
Entry idea:
Sell: 4,370–4,390
Stop: Above 4,410
Target 1: 4,080 (first demand zone)
Target 2: 3,980 (lower demand zone)
Minor Supply: 4,165 – 4,180
This is a recent reaction zone that rejected price.
Can be used for scalping or short-term intraday short setups if price retests.
Sell: 4,165–4,175
Stop: Above 4,190
Target: 4,080 (nearest demand)
🟢 Demand Zones (Potential Long Entry Areas)
Near-Term Demand: 4,050 – 4,080
The most recent rally base before price bounced higher.
Price has respected this area already once, showing buyers stepping in.
Entry idea:
Buy: 4,060–4,080
Stop: Below 4,040
Target: 4,160 (supply)
R:R ≈ 1:2
Major Demand: 3,970 – 4,010
Strong base formed before the previous impulsive move upward.
If price breaks below 4,050, this would be the next strong long zone.
Buy: 3,980–4,000
Stop: Below 3,950
Target 1: 4,080
Target 2: 4,170
📊 Overall Bias
Short-term bias: Neutral to slightly bullish within the range (4,050–4,160).
Medium-term bias: Bearish while below 4,360 (major supply).
Expect possible range trading between 4,050 and 4,160 before a breakout.
A break below 4,050 could send price toward the 3,970 demand zone.
A break above 4,180 could lead to a retest of the 4,360 supply.
Gold Sitting on the Edge – Liquidity Sweep Before the Bounce?Monday didn’t give much movement, and price is now hovering around last week’s low.
I’m expecting a liquidity sweep of the current levels — likely taking out the Daily Low before moving to fill the full Weekly FVG below.
Short-term bias is bearish for the Asian session, but I’ll be watching closely for a shift once that FVG is filled.
If absorption shows up after the sweep, I’ll flip long for the bigger move higher into midweek.
#FuturesTrading #Gold #ICT #LiquiditySweep #NOFOMO
A better alternative to Fibonacci grid🙏🏻 Fibonacci based grid is a great inspiration from the Universe, but imo ain’t the final product, and here it is:
For traders
Use these values above and put em into grid tool here, and you’ll end up with uniform distribution based grid:
1.6134612334371357
1.0196152422706632
0.7886751345948129
0.5
0.21132486540518708
-0.019615242270663247
-0.6134612334371357
Then about how to apply it, you can divide trading activity by analytical units, these are in turn are based on:
^^ by price
^^ by time
^^ by signed volume waves/volume delta
Explanation
If you’ve followed my latest work you know I’ve identified a way to combine higher order moments to construct natural data driven estimates of data’s extremums and “ever possible” values (I still got no idea how no1 Ever posted it anywhere over the last centuries).
Now imagine you got only 2 input values: actual max and min (just like in Fibo grid, it ain’t knows nothing else). Given only these 2 values we can model stuff with uniform distribution that has precisely known values of standardized moments, so we end up with (and remember that uniform distro is symmetric around its mid, so all odd moments are zero):
dev = 1 / math.sqrt(12) //standard deviation
kurt = 1.8 //kurtosis (not excess ofc, the raw one)
hkurt = 27 / 7 //hyperkurtosis, 6th moment, raw af as well
0.5 + dev * hkurt
0.5 + dev * kurt
0.5 + dev
0.5
0.5 - dev
0.5 - dev * kurt
0.5 - dev * hkurt
And the resulting output of it u seen at the beginning of the post, notice how the edges *almost* match your lovely golden ratio.
For wanderers:
Now for the wanderers, creators etc etc etc
We might have a new math constant in our hands.
This can’t be a coincidence that limit levels (the ones at the edges) almost match the golden ratio . What if we find some kind of ‘almost’ uniform distro, where the limit levels would ‘exactly’ match the golden ratio? No problem - Beta distribution with parameters alpha = beta = (smth just a bit greater than 1).
I solved it numerically in python with mpmath library (necessary for high precision stuff, default packages are gonna truncate too much and we work with gamma functions there, high powers, huge numbers).
The following constant used as both parameters for Beta distribution provides us an almost uniform beautiful distro, with a minimal necessary deviation from uniform distro if u pls, just with a lil bit gently smoothed corners, and all connected to fibonacci sequence and golden ratio:
1.013156499304251804283836146883597463164059088989506487984660881392552993230097518061037104047261922219476043198153474114525730243848097530913517155085537693517359999905511951459927003624291626547046737804828112785002512650…
… and it goes on and on. I called it Sagitta constant, because visually it creates that beautiful almost flat shape, the minimal natural curvature. And now if we put this as c in Beta(c, c) following the same levels construction method from before we get these levels:
std = 0.28741741
K = 1.80628205
Hk = 3.88993123
0.5 + std * hk = 1.61803398
0.5 + std * k = 1.01915692
0.5 + std = 0.78741741
0.5 = 0.5
0.5 - std = 0.21258258
0.5 - std * k = -0.01915692
0.5 - std * hk = -0.61803398
Visuals, plots, graphics
^^ here you can see how our resulting distro & derivatives look like, kinda cute aye?
Beta(c, c), where c is our constant Sagitta, actually might be a natural prior for Bayesian stuff, almost a boxcar windowing function for DSP so u gonna tame that famous spectral leakage, or a kernel for KDE, like u name it, every case when u need a uniform shape yet with slightly relaxed endpoints, you can use it in design and architecture.
Go for it bros, test it in your R&D. Maybe some1 gonna use it to prove Riemann assumption conjecture , if u get dat milli send me 25% ima find a good use for it.
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