US30: Will 45,110 Hold or Break Lower?US30 – Overview
Bearish Drop Reaches Target, Market Consolidates at Key Levels
The Dow Jones (US30) dropped over 450 points, exactly reaching the downside targets highlighted in the previous idea.
For now, the index is expected to test 45,110 and then consolidate within the 45,110 – 45,285 range until a breakout occurs.
🔹 Technical Outlook
A 1H close below 45,110 would extend the bearish move toward 44,950. A further break lower opens the path to 44,720 → 44,610.
A 1H close above 45,285 would shift momentum bullish, targeting 45,410 → 45,580.
🔹 Key Levels
Support: 45,110, 44,950 – 44,720
Resistance: 45,285 – 45,410 – 45,580
✅ Summary:
US30 has completed its bearish move and is now consolidating around the 45,110 pivot. Watch for a confirmed 1H close to determine whether the next leg is a continuation lower or a rebound higher.
DJI trade ideas
US 30 INDEX TRADE IDEA 26 AUGUST 2025
The US30 (Dow Jones) remains within a well-defined bullish channel, with recent price action rejecting the upper boundary around 45,350–45,261 . This rejection looks like a liquidity grab above prior highs, a common SMC move before a deeper retracement. The nearest demand zone lies between 44,624 – 44,218 , which coincides with an order block and previous consolidation. As long as price holds this zone, the market structure remains bullish, and longs targeting 45,261 and eventually 46,000 are favorable. A break below 43,855 , however, would signal a market structure shift to bearish, opening downside targets at 42,179 – 41,746 .
From a fundamental perspective , momentum is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut before year-end to counter slowing growth, which generally boosts equity indices. Corporate earnings have surprised to the upside, helping maintain investor confidence. However, geopolitical risks—notably rising trade tensions between the US and China and instability in Eastern Europe—could spark risk-off sentiment, leading to sharp pullbacks. Additionally, the strong US dollar is pressuring exporters, which may weigh on the index in the short term.
Trade idea: Watch for a rejection and bullish confirmation in the 44,624–44,218 demand zone to enter long positions, with stops below 43,855 and targets at 45,261 and 46,000. If macro news worsens (e.g., escalation in geopolitical risks or hawkish Fed comments), and price breaks below 43,855, flip bias to shorts, aiming for 42,179 and possibly 41,746.
Dow Jones – Elliott Wave Setup Near All-Time HighsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has printed a Wave 3 high at 45,757.84 , with the structure suggesting that an internal Wave 4 pullback is unfolding. Once this is complete, a final Wave 5 push could follow, potentially driving the index into fresh all-time highs.
Alternatively, the recent high at 45,757.84 may already mark the completion of Wave 5 . If that is the case, the corrective phase has already begun.
On the RSI , a clear bearish divergence is visible: while price has moved higher, momentum has failed to confirm. This often signals that the current leg of the rally is losing steam.
Based on Elliott Wave guidelines, the entire advance from 34,611 can be counted as either:
Wave 1 of a new bullish impulse, or
Wave A of a larger corrective structure .
In both cases, a corrective phase will follow once Wave 5 completes. Standard retracements are typically in the 0.382–0.618 Fibonacci zone , but the exact levels can only be projected after the Wave 5 top is confirmed.
⚠️ Invalidation Note: The current view expects a correction after the final Wave 5. However, if the index continues to trend strongly higher without respecting this sequence, the bearish setup is invalidated and the wave structure must be re-evaluated.
Summary:
Current status: Wave 3 high at 45,757.84 .
Expecting: Wave 4 pullback, then a Wave 5 push to new highs.
After Wave 5: Retracement likely in the 0.382–0.618 zone (levels to be projected once Wave 5 is fixed).
Risk: Invalidation if price keeps trending higher without corrective behavior.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
US30: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 45,456.4 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 45,530.6 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30 / Dow Jones Technical AnalysisThe Dow Jones index is currently in a general uptrend, with a downward corrective movement on the hourly timeframe.
1️⃣ Bullish Scenario:
If we see bullish momentum and the price holds above 45,700, the index may target 46,000, with continued buying pressure potentially opening the way toward 46,200.
2️⃣ Bearish Scenario:
However, if the price remains below 45,600, this could push the index to test the 44,950 area.
US30 Trade Set Up Aug 25 2025FX:US30
www.tradingview.com
Us30 Trade Set Up: price has created a huge gap between HH/HL so i want to see more price action play out but we got sell side liquidity on the 15m that can be tested. If price sweeps and closes above i will look for buys but if price closes below we could see the start of a bigger pull back down before continuing higher
US30 Correction in Play — Will 45,285 Hold?US30 – Overview
After Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks boosted rate-cut expectations (now nearly 90% probability for September), indices remain in focus with volatility high.
🔹 Technical Outlook
The Dow is currently in a bearish correction toward 45,410.
If the price stabilizes below 45,410, the correction could extend toward 45,285.
Failure to break 45,285 would likely trigger a rebound, pushing the price back toward 45,690 and 45,860.
🔹 Key Levels
Support: 45,410 – 45,285 – 45,100
Resistance: 45,690 – 45,860
✅ Summary:
The Dow is consolidating within a correction phase. The bias remains broadly bullish in line with Fed expectations, but a deeper dip to 45,285 is possible before another upward attempt. A breakout above 45,690 would confirm fresh bullish momentum.
uptrend Waiting for the arrival of the guild, a triangle with the completion of its upside and with the direction of a final upward wave, when the start of an upward spiral is possible.
It is fixed and fixed with a limited resistance, which is supported by a continuous upward spiral, which is close to each other.
US30 Breaks Above 45,000 After Fed Chair’s SpeechFollowing the Fed Chair’s comments at Jackson Hole, US30 surged higher, breaking through the 45,000.0 resistance zone with strong bullish momentum.
Support at: 45,000.0 | 44,000.0 | 43,323.5 | 41,900.0 | 37,700.0
Resistance at: 46,000.0 (psychological round number above current charted levels)
🔎 Bias:
Bullish: Sustained price action above 45,000.0 could open the door for a run toward 46,000.0.
Bearish: If price fails to hold above 45,000.0, a retest of 44,000.0 may follow.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
US30 Long Opportunity US30 has been on a bullish tear recent and after the speech by Powell, the market has turned on the bullish momentum to the max. the market is currently on an impulse to the the upside and has created new highs.
Price has broken the $45000 pivot level and continues to trade above the 21, 50 and 200 SMA and in the bullish region of the RSI, currently sitting in the overextended levels at 80.
it is clear the market is in need of a deep retracement to collect liquidity and i will be target the $45000-$5250 zone for a potential zone opportunity. Waiting to see how price reacts to the level and will ride the wave pass the $445652 mark.
US30 LongUS30: New ATH Prints – Waiting for Weekly Candle Retracement
The US30 has surged to fresh all-time highs (ATH), closing last week with a strong bullish weekly momentum candle. This kind of aggressive move often sees follow-through, but smart money typically waits for a retracement to optimize entries.
Plan & Levels:
The area around $45,300 stands out as a potential buying zone, aligning with expected dollar weakness and a key Fibonacci retracement level of the prior weekly push.
Traders will watch for price to pull back toward this zone and confirm entries using lower timeframe candlestick patterns and confluence with Fibonacci support.
Technical Context:
Momentum remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and strong breadth across industrial and tech components supporting the rally.
A controlled retracement would provide fresh liquidity for continuation and could set the stage for another leg higher toward new records.
Trading Plan:
Wait for a retracement toward $45,300 to build a long position.
Validate entries using Fibonacci levels and bullish reversal candles on 4H or lower charts.
Maintain disciplined risk management, as overextended markets can show sharp pullbacks before continuation.
US30 Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Daily Trading Strategy# US30 Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Daily Trading Strategy
**Current Position**: 45,657.5 (Aug 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4)
* 🎯 Executive Summary
US30 positioned above critical 45,000 resistance turned support, showing bullish momentum with multiple theory convergence suggesting continuation toward 46,200-46,800 zone, with 70% upside probability.
---
# 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
*INTRADAY ANALYSIS (5M - 4H)**
*5-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Candlestick Patterns
*Current Formation**: Bullish flag consolidation after breakout
*Key Patterns**:
*Hammer/Doji near 45,600**: Bullish continuation signal
*Shooting Star above 45,750**: Take profit/reversal warning
*Volume Confirmation**: Required above 150% average for sustainability
*# Technical Indicators
*RSI(14)**: 58-62 (Bullish momentum zone)
*VWAP**: 45,635 ± 25 (Dynamic support/resistance)
*Bollinger Bands**: Upper band test at 45,720, expansion phase active
*EMA(20)**: 45,610 (immediate dynamic support)
*# Entry/Exit Signals
*Long Entry**: Break above 45,680 with volume
*Stop Loss**: Below 45,580 (100 point risk)
*Target 1**: 45,780 (R:R 1:1)
*Target 2**: 45,850 (R:R 1:1.7)
*15-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Harmonic Patterns
*Active Pattern**: Bullish ABCD completion at 45,200-45,250
*Butterfly Extension**: Target projection 46,200-46,400
*Fibonacci Confluence**:
- 61.8% extension at 46,180
- 78.6% extension at 46,450
*# Wyckoff Analysis
*Phase**: Markup phase after successful reaccumulation
*Character of Movement**: Strong hands accumulating
*Volume**: Increasing on advances (bullish confirmation)
*Next Expected**: Continued markup to distribution zone
*# Entry Strategy (15M)
*Pullback Entry**: 45,580-45,620 support zone
*Stop Loss**: Below 45,520 (60-100 point risk)
*Target**: 45,820-45,900
*Risk/Reward**: 1:2.5
*30-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Elliott Wave Count
*Primary Count**: Wave 5 of (3) in progress
- Wave 1: 44,500 → 45,200
- Wave 2: 45,200 → 44,900
- Wave 3: 44,900 → 45,650 (current)
- Wave 4 Expected: 45,400-45,500
- Wave 5 Target: 46,200-46,500
*# Alternative Count
*Wave (3) Extension**: Current move as wave 3 of 5
*Target**: 46,800-47,200
*Invalidation**: Below 45,200
*# W.D. Gann Analysis
*Square of 9**:
- 45,600 = 214² ÷ 10 (current support)
- 46,000 = 215² ÷ 10 (next major resistance)
- 46,400 = 216² ÷ 10 (extended target)
*Time Theory**: Next major turn window Aug 27-29
*Angle Theory**: 1x1 Gann line at 45,200 (major support)
*1-Hour Timeframe Analysis**
*# Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
*Tenkan-sen (9)**: 45,640 (current support)
*Kijun-sen (26)**: 45,480 (strong support)
*Kumo Cloud**: 45,200-45,400 (support zone)
*Chikou Span**: Clearly above price (bullish)
*Future Cloud**: Bullish twist confirmed for next 26 periods
*# Moving Averages Matrix
*SMA(20)**: 45,520
*EMA(20)**: 45,580
*SMA(50)**: 45,320
*EMA(50)**: 45,410
*SMA(200)**: 44,800
*Golden Cross Status**: All short-term MAs above long-term (bullish)
*# 1H Trading Setup
*Bull Flag Pattern**: Breakout above 45,700
*Entry**: 45,720 with volume confirmation
*Stop**: 45,550 (170 point risk)
*Target 1**: 45,950 (R:R 1:1.35)
*Target 2**: 46,200 (R:R 1:2.8)
*4-Hour Timeframe Analysis**
*# Advanced Pattern Recognition
*Cup & Handle**: Handle formation in progress
*Ascending Triangle**: Base at 45,000, apex at 45,750
*Volume Profile**: Point of Control at 45,400
*Key Levels**:
*Major Support**: 45,000-45,200
*Minor Support**: 45,400-45,500
*Minor Resistance**: 45,750-45,800
*Major Resistance**: 46,000-46,200
*# 4H Swing Strategy
*Pattern**: Bullish continuation after consolidation
*Entry Zone**: 45,500-45,600 on pullbacks
*Stop Loss**: Below 45,200 (300-400 point risk)
*Target 1**: 46,200 (R:R 1:1.5)
*Target 2**: 46,800 (R:R 1:3)
*Target 3**: 47,200 (R:R 1:4)
---
# 📈 SWING ANALYSIS (4H - Monthly)
*Daily Timeframe**
* Elliott Wave Structure
*Supercycle**: Wave (V) from 2020 lows in progress
*Cycle**: Wave 3 of (V) extension phase
*Primary**: Wave (3) of 3 targeting 47,000-48,000
*Intermediate**: Currently in wave 5 of (3)
* Long-term Wave Count
*Wave (1)**: 18,591 → 29,568 (COVID recovery)
*Wave (2)**: 29,568 → 24,681 (correction)
*Wave (3)**: 24,681 → current (in progress)
- Target: 50,000-52,000 (1.618 extension)
* Wyckoff Daily Analysis
*Phase**: Markup phase continuation
*Accumulation**: Completed between 40,000-42,000
*Character**: Professional money leading
*Distribution Signs**: None yet, markup continuing
* Gann Daily Forecasting
*Master Time Cycle**: 180-day cycle bullish through Q4 2025
*Price Squares**:
- 46,225 = 215² (immediate target)
- 47,524 = 218² (major target)
- 48,841 = 221² (extended target)
*Seasonal**: September-October historically strong for Dow
*Weekly Timeframe**
* Major Elliott Wave Structure
*Grand Supercycle**: Wave (III) from 1932 lows
*Supercycle**: Wave (V) of III in final stages
*Cycle**: Wave 3 of (V) - strongest part of bull market
* Weekly Harmonic Analysis
*Shark Pattern**: Completion target 47,500-48,000
*Crab Pattern**: Deep retracement only if below 42,000
*ABCD Extensions**: 1.272 at 46,800, 1.618 at 48,200
* Weekly Gann Analysis
*Annual Cycle**: Bullish through early 2026
*Master Numbers**:
- 47,000 (major psychological and Gann level)
- 48,000 (strong resistance zone)
- 50,000 (major long-term target)
*Monthly Timeframe**
* Macro Structure Analysis
*Primary Degree**: Wave (5) of V nearing completion
*Long-term Target**: 52,000-55,000 (final wave target)
*Timeline**: Peak expected 2026-2027
*Post-Peak Correction**: Potentially 30-40% decline
* Monthly Indicators
*RSI**: 65 (bullish but watch for divergence)
*MACD**: Strong bullish momentum
*Volume**: Confirming uptrend
*Seasonal Pattern**: Q4 typically strong for Dow Jones
---
# 📋 CRITICAL LEVELS & TARGETS
*Immediate Levels (24-48 Hours)**
* Resistance Zones
*R1**: 45,750-45,800 (immediate)
*R2**: 45,900-45,950 (minor)
*R3**: 46,050-46,100 (significant)
*R4**: 46,200-46,300 (major)
* Support Zones
*S1**: 45,550-45,600 (immediate)
*S2**: 45,400-45,450 (minor)
*S3**: 45,200-45,300 (significant)
*S4**: 45,000-45,100 (major/psychological)
*Short-term Targets (1-2 Weeks)**
* Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
*Target 1**: 46,200-46,400
*Target 2**: 46,800-47,000
*Target 3**: 47,500-47,800
* Bearish Scenario (30% Probability)
*Target 1**: 44,800-45,000
*Target 2**: 44,200-44,500
*Target 3**: 43,500-43,800
*Medium-term Projections (1-3 Months)**
* Primary Uptrend Scenario
*Phase 1**: 46,500-47,000 (September)
*Phase 2**: 47,500-48,000 (October)
*Phase 3**: 48,500-50,000 (November-December)
* Correction Scenario
*Pullback Target**: 42,000-43,500
*Duration**: 4-8 weeks
*Recovery**: Q1 2026 new highs
---
# 📅 DETAILED DAILY TRADING STRATEGIES
*MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 2025**
* Pre-Market Analysis
*Gap Assessment**: Expected gap up 50-100 points
*Key Level**: Hold above 45,600 for continuation
*Volume Requirement**: >120% average for gap sustainability
*Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM EST)**
*# Setup 1: Gap & Go Strategy
*Condition**: Gap up >45,700 with volume
*Entry**: First pullback to 45,650-45,680
*Stop Loss**: 45,580 (70-100 point risk)
*Target 1**: 45,850 (R:R 1:1.7)
*Target 2**: 45,950 (R:R 1:2.7)
*# Setup 2: Breakout Play
*Entry**: Break above 45,780 with volume >150% avg
*Stop Loss**: 45,680 (100 point risk)
*Target 1**: 45,920 (R:R 1:1.4)
*Target 2**: 46,080 (R:R 1:3)
*Afternoon Session (12:00 PM - 4:00 PM EST)**
*# Setup 3: Flag Pattern Continuation
*Setup**: Pullback to 45,620-45,650 support
*Entry**: Bounce with volume confirmation
*Stop**: 45,550 (70-100 point risk)
*Target**: 45,850-45,920
* Risk Management - Monday
*Max Position Size**: 2% account risk
*Max Daily Loss**: 3% of account
*News Watch**: Economic data releases, Fed officials
---
*TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2025**
* Market Context
*Gann Time Window**: Major turn date potential
*Technical Focus**: Momentum continuation vs. profit-taking
*Volume Expected**: Above average
*Trading Sessions**
*# Setup 1: Trend Continuation
*Bullish Follow-through**: If Monday closes >45,750
- Entry: Pullback to 45,700-45,730
- Stop: 45,620 (80-110 point risk)
- Target 1: 45,920 (R:R 1:2)
- Target 2: 46,150 (R:R 1:4)
*# Setup 2: Reversal Recognition
*Bearish Reversal**: If rejection from 46,000 area
- Entry: Break below 45,650
- Stop: 45,750 (100 point risk)
- Target 1: 45,450 (R:R 1:2)
- Target 2: 45,250 (R:R 1:4)
*# Setup 3: Range Trading
*Consolidation Range**: 45,600-45,850
*Buy Zone**: 45,600-45,630
*Sell Zone**: 45,820-45,850
*Stops**: 50 points outside range
---
*WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025**
* Market Dynamics
*Mid-week Character**: Often consolidation day
*Pattern Development**: Triangle/flag completion expected
*Federal Reserve**: Watch for policy communications
*Strategy Focus**
*# Setup 1: Breakout Preparation
*Consolidation Pattern**: Symmetrical triangle
*Breakout Level**: Above 45,880 or below 45,550
*Volume Requirement**: >200% average for valid break
*Target Distance**: Equal to triangle height (~300 points)
*# Setup 2: Scalping Strategy
*Timeframe**: 5-15 minutes
*Range**: 45,650-45,750
*Entry Signals**: RSI oversold/overbought extremes
*Targets**: 25-50 point moves
*Stops**: Tight 20-30 points
* Risk Parameters - Wednesday
*Reduced Position Size**: Anticipating lower volatility
*Tighter Stops**: Market likely range-bound
*Multiple Small Trades**: Rather than swing positions
---
*THURSDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025**
* Technical Setup
*Elliott Wave**: Potential wave completion
*Harmonic Patterns**: Butterfly/Gartley completion zones
*Volume Pattern**: Building for Friday breakout
*Primary Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Pre-Breakout Positioning
*Accumulation Zone**: 45,600-45,700
*Distribution Zone**: 45,900-46,000
*Position Size**: Larger for Friday breakout
*# Setup 2: Pattern Completion
*Harmonic Entry**: 45,580-45,620 (Butterfly D point)
*Stop Loss**: Below 45,500
*Targets**: 45,900, 46,200, 46,500
*High probability setup**: Multiple confirmations
---
*FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2025**
* Weekly Close Significance
*Monthly Close**: Critical for long-term charts
*Options Expiration**: Increased volume and volatility
*Position Squaring**: Professional money adjusting
*End-of-Week Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Weekly Breakout
*Above 45,900**: Bullish for next week
- Target: 46,200-46,500
- Stop: 45,650
- Hold over weekend if strong close
*# Setup 2: Weekly Reversal
*Below 45,500**: Bearish warning
- Target: 45,200-45,000
- Stop: 45,650
- Consider closing before weekend
*# Setup 3: Month-End Positioning
*Strong Close >45,800**: Monthly bullish signal
*Weak Close <45,600**: Caution for September
*Volume Analysis**: Key for validation
---
# ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
*Position Sizing Framework**
* Account Risk Models
*Conservative**: 1% risk per trade
*Moderate**: 2% risk per trade
*Aggressive**: 3% risk per trade (maximum)
* Dynamic Sizing Formula
```
Position Size = (Account Equity × Risk %) ÷ Stop Distance
```
* Volatility Adjustment
*High Volatility Days**: Reduce position size by 25-50%
*Low Volatility Days**: Standard position size
*News Event Days**: Reduce or avoid new positions
*Stop Loss Methodology**
* Technical Stops
*5M Chart**: Recent swing high/low + 20 points
*15M Chart**: Support/resistance + 30 points
*1H Chart**: Key levels + 50 points
*4H Chart**: Major levels + 100 points
* Time-Based Stops
*Scalping**: Maximum 1-2 hours in trade
*Day Trading**: Close all positions by 3:45 PM EST
*Swing Trading**: Re-evaluate every 48 hours
*Profit Taking Strategy**
* Scaling Out Method
*25% at Target 1**: Lock in profits early
*50% at Target 2**: Secure majority of gains
*25% at Target 3**: Let winners run
* Trailing Stops
*Initial**: 50% of original stop distance
*Progressive**: Tighten as profits increase
*Final**: Break-even + spread when possible
---
# 📊 WEEKLY PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK
*Success Metrics**
* Primary KPIs
*Win Rate**: Target >60%
*Risk/Reward Ratio**: Minimum 1:2 average
*Maximum Drawdown**: Limit to 8% weekly
*Profit Factor**: Target >1.5
*Sharpe Ratio**: Measure risk-adjusted returns
* Trade Quality Assessment
*A-Grade Trades**: All confirmations present (>80% win rate)
*B-Grade Trades**: Most confirmations (60-70% win rate)
*C-Grade Trades**: Few confirmations (40-50% win rate)
*Avoid D-Grade**: Insufficient setup quality
*Weekly Review Protocol**
* Analysis Questions
1. **Setup Quality**: Were entry criteria consistently met?
2. **Risk Management**: Were stops appropriate for volatility?
3. **Market Context**: How did fundamental factors impact technicals?
4. **Execution**: Were entries and exits well-timed?
5. **Emotional State**: Did psychology affect trading decisions?
* Continuous Improvement
*Pattern Recognition**: Which setups worked best?
*Market Conditions**: Optimal volatility ranges for strategies
*Time of Day**: Most profitable trading hours
*News Impact**: How events affected technical levels
---
# 🚨 CRITICAL ALERTS & DECISION POINTS
*Immediate Alerts (Next 24-48 Hours)**
* Bullish Catalysts
*Break above 45,800**: Accelerated move to 46,200
*Volume spike >200%**: Confirms breakout validity
*Gap up >100 points**: Strong institutional interest
* Bearish Warnings
*Break below 45,400**: Correction deepening
*Volume spike on decline**: Distribution signals
*Multiple rejections at 46,000**: Resistance holding
*Weekly Watchpoints**
* Technical Invalidations
*Elliott Wave**: Below 45,200 invalidates bullish count
*Harmonic Patterns**: Failure at 45,580 negates butterfly
*Wyckoff**: Below 45,000 suggests distribution
* Confirmation Signals
*Volume Surge**: Above average on advances
*Breadth**: Individual Dow components participating
*Sector Rotation**: Industrial strength supporting index
*Monthly Considerations**
* September Seasonality
*Historical Tendency**: Weakest month for equities
*Strategy Adjustment**: More conservative positioning
*Hedging**: Consider protective puts if extended
* Federal Reserve Impact
*Policy Meetings**: September 17-18 FOMC
*Economic Data**: Employment, inflation reports
*Market Sensitivity**: Tech sector influence on Dow
---
# 🎯 SCENARIO PLANNING
*Base Case Scenario (70% Probability)**
* Bullish Continuation
*Next Week**: 46,200-46,500 target range
*September**: Consolidation 45,500-47,000
*Q4 2025**: New highs 47,500-50,000
*Catalysts**: Strong earnings, Fed dovishness
*Alternative Scenarios**
* Correction Scenario (25% Probability)
*Trigger**: Break below 45,000 with volume
*Target**: 43,500-44,500 (Fibonacci support)
*Duration**: 4-8 weeks
*Recovery**: Q1 2026 resumption
* Extended Rally (5% Probability)
*Trigger**: Break above 47,000 with strong volume
*Target**: 50,000-52,000 (Elliott Wave target)
*Timeline**: Q4 2025 - Q1 2026
*Risk**: Overextension, sharp correction follows
---
**⚡ EXECUTION SUMMARY**: US30 at 45,657.5 is positioned for continued upside with multiple technical confirmations. Key resistance at 45,800-46,000 must be cleared with volume for next leg higher. Strict risk management essential given elevated levels and potential for increased volatility.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya.Trade
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Trade Against the Crowd | Skeptic’s Night Byte Ep.3Welcome to Episode 3 of Skeptic’s Night Byte! 🔮
Today we break down a comment and share practical tips on how to act on triggers in crypto and stocks — even when the world seems against you. Learn how to:
Follow your strategy without being swayed by news
Manage risk with smart stop-loss rules
Keep your trades disciplined and avoid FOMO
💡 Keep it simple, manage your capital, and trade with confidence.
US30 - Giant Break OutDear Friends in Trading,
Keynote:
As long as price remains above 45000, potential for more
Bullish continuation remains high.
Especially after yesterday's sentiment for September.
Quality:
It's a giant break-out candle.
This candle has the potential to serve as all 4 functions going forward.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
PS:
I really apologies for changing the format again.
I am aiming to find the golden thread between my eyes for work,
and simplified clarity for ideas.
I will settle on a standard template soon.
Dow Jones: Will It Finally Break All-Time Highs?While SPX 500 and Nasdaq have already smashed their all-time highs, Dow Jones is still grinding toward its breakout. In this analysis, I’ll break down the current consolidation phase, key Fibonacci levels, and precise long triggers to watch. We’ll zoom into daily and lower time frames to find actionable entries, manage risk, and avoid FOMO.
Clear, skeptical, and to the point. 🔮
Trade smart, keep risk tight, and don’t FOMO. Share your thoughts in the comments, boost if it helps <3