ETHUSD, bullish short-term caseBullish case for ETHUSD.
This Elliott Wave count has price in wave (5) of ((3)) of iii.
Wave (4) retracing to 4 of lesser degree, .236 from (3) to (2).
Current price sitting at .5-.618 support, with volume profile point-of-control providing support at well.
If this proves correct, target wave (5) completion above 6500.
Analysis invalid below support of 4209.01.
ETHUSD.PI trade ideas
ETHEREUM Is it realistic to expect last Cycle's rally?Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been practically consolidating since the mid-August High, following an impressive rally on the April 07 Low. Technically it is coming off a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross.
It is the exact same pattern that confirmed ETH's massive parabolic rise (green Channel Up) during the previous Cycle in August 17 2020. The 1W RSI fractals between the two sequences are similar.
However, time-wise we are not in the same stage as last Cycle, in fact we are much closer to the end of the 4-year Cycle model. If there is still some time to repeat such a parabolic run, the price is 'limited' by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $13500, which again will be a wonderful and increasingly optimistic target for this Cycle Top.
Do you think it is realistic to expect such repeat at this stage?
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ETH Accumulates for Uptrend Above 5000ETH Technical Analysis
1. Current Market Structure
• ETH is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern.
• The price is trading around 4,487, holding above the moving averages but facing strong resistance ahead.
2. Key Resistance Levels
• 4,573 – 4,653 (Fib 0.618 – 0.786 zone): A critical resistance area where sellers may emerge.
• 4,754: Strong resistance level and neckline of the triangle.
• 5,040: Major target if the price breaks above the 4,754 resistance, aligning with the 1.618 Fib extension.
3. Key Support Levels
• 4,295 – 4,310 zone: Strong demand area and lower triangle support.
• A breakdown below this level could trigger deeper corrections.
4. Price Outlook
• Scenario 1: ETH may retest the 4,295 support zone before bouncing back towards the upper resistance at 4,754.
• Scenario 2: A confirmed breakout above 4,754 could accelerate bullish momentum towards 5,040.
👉 Conclusion: ETH remains bullish as long as it holds above the 4,295 support. Watch for a breakout at 4,754 to confirm continuation towards 5,040.
Ethereum: Breakout or Pullback After FOMC?Hello everyone, let’s take a look at ETH together! 🚀
On the H4 chart, ETH has paused after its surge to 4.8k, consolidating between 4.45k–4.62k while staying above the rising Ichimoku cloud – a sign the medium-term trend remains strong. The latest dip came with lighter volume, suggesting profit-taking rather than a full reversal. Key supports lie at 4.47k–4.45k, then deeper at 4.41k–4.39k and 4.35k–4.33k. On the upside, 4.58k–4.62k is the major resistance zone; if cleared, ETH could head toward 4.70k–4.80k. As long as the price holds above 4.41k, this remains an accumulation phase within the uptrend.
The spotlight this week is on the FOMC. A dovish Fed could cool USD and yields, lifting risk assets and giving ETH the push it needs to break past 4.62k. A hawkish outcome, however, might trigger a retest of 4.47k–4.41k to gauge demand. ETF flows and on-chain activity also matter: strong inflows would support recovery, while outflows could pressure supports. Overall, bias stays bullish, but the decisive move hinges on the FOMC – the switch that may set ETH’s next direction.
What’s your take on ETH’s setup? Share your view!
Interesting IndicatorOver the past few days I've published my first script "Fibonacci Trader". It spotted a good trade in ETH but the market started off red. I learned something new today and decided to implement that into a strategy. It is a trend continuation indicator. Works great in the lower time frame such as 1M or 3M(better).
Breakout Trader
This script is designed to catch breakout opportunities that develop after a clear trend has already been established. By tracking price pivots and measuring key retracement levels, it can identify points where momentum shifts create the setup for a potential continuation move. These signals often occur when a failed attempt to push price further in the opposite direction leads instead to renewed strength in the original trend.
It is particularly effective on lower time frames, where breakouts can quickly evolve into strong extended moves. On charts like the 1-minute or 3-minute, the script helps traders capture these fast-developing opportunities, giving early warnings of potential entries that may lead to much longer trend extensions.
ETHUSD 4H HOURLY PROJECTION AND IDEA.The second in command in the crypto market is Eth, just broke a structure back into a previous Balance Area, which may mean price could be static for sometime and the Pair takes its lead and direction from its Head BTC, which is also on a downward move, but the overall direction of the market is Bullish, and currently price is within a previous range i expect price to stay within this range (Balance) lets see what price would do next.
ETHUSD bullish sideways consolidationThe ETHUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4,100 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4,100 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4,450 – initial resistance
4,730 – psychological and structural level
5,070 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4,100 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3,990 – minor support
3,830 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the ETHUSD holds above 4,100. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Galaxygroup: Ethereum + AI — dAI Team in Ethereum FoundationIn the evolving blockchain landscape of September 2025, the integration of AI into Ethereum marks a pivotal shift, positioning the network as a foundational layer for AI economies. The Ethereum Foundation's newly launched dAI Team, announced on September 15, 2025, focuses on bridging AI agents with blockchain through standards like ERC-8004, enabling verifiable, autonomous transactions without intermediaries. With Ethereum trading at $4,521, this development signals enhanced utility for dApps and potential price catalysts. From Galaxygroup, a leading analytics platform specializing in Web3 metrics and AI signals, we analyze AI integration via ERC-8004, dApp signals (RSI, MACD), and forecasts for ETH reaching $5,000. Data as of September 16, 2025—opportune for traders ahead of the Devconnect conference in November.
Galaxygroup provides real-time dashboards for Ethereum AI tracking; sign up for our demo to leverage these insights.
AI Integration in Ethereum: ERC-8004 and dAI Team
The dAI Team aims to make Ethereum the settlement layer for AI agents, allowing them to discover, verify, and transact securely. ERC-8004, a key focus since February 2025, is a proposed standard for proving AI agent identity and trustworthiness, ensuring tamper-proof interactions and reputation systems. The team will present the finalized ERC-8004 at Devconnect in Buenos Aires this November, fostering AI-driven dApps for payments, coordination, and decentralization.
Impact: ERC-8004 enhances Ethereum's role in AI economies, potentially boosting TVL in AI-integrated DeFi by 30% as agents automate trades and governance. On-chain: Early adoption shows +15% transaction volume in AI-related contracts, with whale interest in ETH up 10%.
dApps Signals: RSI and MACD for AI-Integrated Ethereum
Galaxygroup analyzes key Ethereum dApps and AI proxies (e.g., Fetch.ai FET, SingularityNET AGIX, and ETH itself) using RSI for momentum and MACD for trends, based on the April 2025 uptrend.
ETH ($4,521): Support at $4,350–$4,450 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance at $4,760–$4,900. RSI at 58 (bullish momentum above 50, healthy without overbought). MACD: Bullish crossover (histogram +0.15), signaling accelerating impulse—entry on dips for 10–15% upside. On-chain: Gas fees down 20% post-Pectra, AI dApp TVL +25%.
FET (AI Proxy dApp): Support at $2.50–$2.70 (38.2% Fibonacci). Resistance at $3.00–$3.20. RSI at 62 (strong trend). MACD: Histogram +0.12, divergence bullish—target 12% to $3.20 amid ERC-8004 hype. On-chain: AI agent transactions +30%, integrations with Ethereum up 15%.
Ethereum AI Aggregate (e.g., AGIX/ETH proxies, ~$1.20 equivalent): Support at $1.10–$1.15 (61.8% Fibonacci). Resistance at $1.30–$1.35. RSI at 55 (neutral-bullish divergence). MACD: Squeeze in Bollinger Bands—breakout signal for 8–12% gains. On-chain: dAI Team announcements drove +20% volume in AI contracts.
Overall: RSI 56–60 across AI dApps, MACD bullish—enter longs at Fibonacci supports for Q4 15–20% rally, correlating 0.7 with ETH.
Galaxygroup Forecasts for ETH: Path to $5K
Galaxygroup's AI models project ETH at $5,000 by year-end, a 10.6% rise from $4,521, driven by dAI Team momentum and ERC-8004 adoption. Short-term: Post-announcement rally to $4,760 (RSI >60 trigger), with November Devconnect as a catalyst for $4,900. Long-term: AI integration boosts Ethereum's utility, with TVL exceeding $1 trillion (up 20%) and yields 5–7% in AI-DeFi pools. Risks: Regulatory scrutiny on AI agents; hedge with stablecoins. Bullish sentiment at 71%, with MACD confirming uptrend—$5K achievable if Bitcoin holds $115K.
Conclusion: Trade Ethereum AI with Galaxygroup
Ethereum's AI integration via the dAI Team and ERC-8004 positions it as the backbone for AI economies, with dApp signals (RSI/MACD) flashing bullish for ETH to $5K. Galaxygroup's tools deliver precise on-chain forecasts.
Ready to invest? Join Galaxygroup for AI alerts and demo access. What's your ETH target? Comment below!
#EthereumAI #dAITeam #ERC8004 #ETH #Galaxygroup
Market opens Llower as Ethereum holds steady; Analysts eye $5,00Market opens Llower as Ethereum holds steady; Analysts eye $5,000
The market opened lower on Tuesday, with Ethereum trading around $4,500. While bears are applying pressure ahead of a potential rate cut, ETH remains relatively stable compared to more volatile altcoins.
Recent analysis indicates a significant cooling in Ethereum trading activity. The market has entered a neutral but nervous phase, characterized by a decline in perpetual futures trading—suggesting reduced leveraged speculation and a shift toward more organic spot trading. However, spot market volumes have also failed to impress, consistently staying low and reflecting limited investor participation.
This combination points to a indecisive market. Ethereum has managed to maintain a moderate upward trend but lacks strong bullish momentum, leaving it in a semi-bullish range.
Analysts suggest that a clear break above the key psychological level of $5,000 is crucial to avoid sideways movement and could trigger a rally toward $6,000 by year-end.
In institutional news, Standard Chartered’s venture arm, SC Ventures, is planning to launch a $250 million crypto-focused investment fund in 2026. The fund will target digital assets in financial services and signals growing institutional interest. The bank is also launching a separate $100 million Africa investment fund.
Ethereum Bets on Privacy in Its New RoadmapIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Ethereum has taken an important step in its evolution: privacy. The Ethereum Foundation has relaunched its team under the name Privacy Stewards of Ethereum (PSE) and presented a roadmap aimed at incorporating confidentiality tools into the ecosystem.
Sam Richards, one of the project’s key figures, summed it up bluntly: “without privacy, Ethereum (ETH) is not freedom, it is global surveillance.” A statement that underscores the importance of this initiative.
The strategy is structured around three pillars:
Private writes: ensuring private operations cost the same as public ones.
Private reads: enabling reads without leaving a trace on the network.
Private proving: delivering faster and more affordable ZK proofs.
Among the notable developments is PlasmaFold, a Layer 2 solution focused on private transfers, with a prototype expected this November at Devconnect in Argentina. In addition, the team is preparing a report on private voting in 2025 and is working on confidential DeFi applications targeted at institutional clients.
Technical Analysis of ETHUSD
The ETHUSD pair has entered a consolidation phase after recent bullish moves. It is currently trading near recent highs at $4,530.60, moving within a lateral channel defined by key support at $4,447.96 and resistance at the $4,954.17 highs, a level previously tested in 2021.
The current price holds above the 50-day moving average, with the first support level aligned with the 100-day moving average. A third support can be found at the 200-day moving average near $3,506.70. The current Point of Control (POC) sits far below, at the origin of the previous bullish impulse around $1,600.
The RSI is at 55.39, placing it in neutral territory following a series of bearish moves in mid-August. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in a lateral structure, with its histogram slightly positive—supporting the idea of price concentration. According to the ActivTrades Crypto Fear & Greed Index, sentiment stands at 61.65 (greed), reflecting lingering optimism in the market and sustained altcoin dominance.
A breakout above the immediate resistance could lead to new highs toward $5,100. However, failure to hold this breakout may result in a loss of the 50-day moving average support, a retest of lower supports, and potentially a decline toward the $2,800 area.
In conclusion, as long as ETHUSD holds above current support, the technical bias remains positive. Yet, breaking above the recent highs will be crucial to confirm a new bullish leg. With this approach, Ethereum strengthens its position not only as a smart contracts network but also as an ecosystem seeking to balance transparency and privacy—two key elements for mass adoption.
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ETHUSD H4 | Bearish reversal signalEthereum (ETH/USD) has rejected off the sell entry at 4,628.98, whichis a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 4,851.84, whichis a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 4,226.60, whichis a pullback support.
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Petrodollar & Oil Trade Mechanisms1. Origins of the Petrodollar System
1.1 Oil and the Bretton Woods Order
After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) created a global financial system where most currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar itself was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. This made the dollar the cornerstone of world trade. Since oil was becoming a critical global resource, it naturally started being priced in dollars.
1.2 The Collapse of Bretton Woods
In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold. This “Nixon Shock” meant the U.S. dollar was no longer backed by gold, leading to concerns about its stability. At the same time, oil demand was booming worldwide, and the U.S. needed a way to preserve the dollar’s dominance.
1.3 U.S.–Saudi Deal and Birth of Petrodollars
In 1974, the U.S. struck a historic deal with Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter and de facto leader of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). The agreement included:
Saudi Arabia pricing its oil exclusively in U.S. dollars.
Investing surplus revenues in U.S. Treasury securities and financial markets.
In return, the U.S. provided military protection and security guarantees.
Other OPEC members followed suit. This was the birth of the petrodollar system, where oil exports globally were priced and traded in U.S. dollars. The result: demand for dollars surged worldwide, cementing the U.S. currency as the world’s reserve currency.
2. How the Petrodollar System Works
2.1 Dollar-Denominated Oil
Under the petrodollar system, any country wishing to buy oil must first acquire U.S. dollars. This creates constant global demand for dollars, ensuring its strength and liquidity in foreign exchange markets.
2.2 Recycling of Petrodollars
Oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE generate huge dollar revenues. These dollars are then recycled in two ways:
Investment in U.S. assets: Treasuries, bonds, real estate, and equities.
Loans to developing countries: Petrodollar surpluses often flow into global banks, which lend them to countries in need of capital.
This cycle—oil buyers purchasing dollars, exporters reinvesting dollars—sustains global financial flows.
2.3 U.S. Strategic Advantage
Because oil trade requires dollars, the U.S. enjoys unique privileges:
Ability to run persistent trade deficits without collapsing currency value.
Financing government spending through foreign purchases of U.S. debt.
Strengthening its geopolitical influence by controlling financial channels linked to the dollar.
In essence, the petrodollar acts as a form of “hidden tax” on the world, since global demand for dollars supports U.S. economic power.
3. Oil Trade Mechanisms in Practice
3.1 Global Oil Markets
Oil is traded in both physical markets and futures markets:
Physical market: Actual crude is bought and sold, usually under long-term contracts or spot deals.
Futures market: Contracts on exchanges (like NYMEX or ICE) allow traders to speculate or hedge against oil price movements.
Both markets are dominated by U.S. dollar pricing benchmarks such as:
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) – benchmark for U.S. oil.
Brent Crude – benchmark for international oil trade.
3.2 Shipping & Logistics
Oil trade relies heavily on maritime transport. Tanker routes like the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, and Strait of Malacca are chokepoints critical to supply. Insurance, shipping contracts, and freight charges also link back to dollar-based systems.
3.3 Role of OPEC and Non-OPEC Producers
OPEC, founded in 1960, has historically coordinated oil output to influence prices. But newer players like Russia, the U.S. (via shale oil), and Brazil also play major roles. Despite these shifts, the dollar remains the settlement currency.
3.4 Derivatives and Financialization
Beyond physical barrels, oil is increasingly a financial asset. Banks, hedge funds, and institutional investors use futures, options, and swaps to speculate or manage risk. The fact that all these instruments are denominated in dollars further entrenches the petrodollar.
4. Geopolitical Implications of the Petrodollar
4.1 Dollar Hegemony
The petrodollar is a cornerstone of U.S. financial dominance. Control over oil trade means:
U.S. sanctions become extremely powerful (cutting nations off from dollar-based transactions).
Countries are incentivized to hold dollar reserves.
American banks and financial institutions dominate global capital flows.
4.2 Middle East Politics
The U.S.–Saudi alliance is at the heart of the petrodollar system. U.S. military presence in the Middle East has often been tied to protecting oil flows and ensuring dollar-denominated trade.
4.3 Wars and Petrodollar Resistance
Countries that attempted to bypass the petrodollar often faced geopolitical pushback:
Iraq (2000): Saddam Hussein switched oil sales to euros. The U.S. invasion in 2003 reversed this.
Libya (2010): Muammar Gaddafi proposed a gold-backed African dinar for oil. NATO intervention soon followed.
Iran: Has long sought to sell oil in euros, yuan, or barter arrangements, facing heavy U.S. sanctions.
4.4 Rise of China and Yuan Internationalization
China, the world’s largest oil importer, has pushed for alternative arrangements:
Launching Shanghai crude oil futures denominated in yuan.
Signing oil-for-yuan agreements with Russia, Iran, and others.
Promoting the “petroyuan” as a challenger to the petrodollar.
5. Economic Effects of the Petrodollar System
5.1 On the U.S.
Benefits: Cheap financing, stronger global financial role, ability to run deficits.
Risks: Overreliance on dollar demand can mask structural weaknesses in U.S. manufacturing and trade.
5.2 On Oil Exporters
Oil-rich nations earn vast revenues, but dependence on dollars ties them to U.S. monetary policy. Petrodollar inflows can also create “Dutch Disease”—overdependence on oil revenues at the expense of other sectors.
5.3 On Importing Countries
Nations must secure dollars to pay for oil. This can create vulnerability during dollar shortages, especially in developing countries, leading to debt crises (e.g., Latin America in the 1980s).
5.4 On Global Finance
Petrodollar recycling has fueled global liquidity. But when oil prices collapse, dollar inflows shrink, causing volatility in emerging markets and banking systems.
6. Challenges to the Petrodollar System
6.1 Shift Toward Multipolarity
The world is moving toward multipolar finance, with alternatives like:
Petroyuan (China).
Digital currencies and blockchain settlements.
Barter systems (oil-for-goods agreements).
6.2 U.S. Sanctions Overuse
While sanctions are a powerful tool, their frequent use pushes countries to seek alternatives to dollar-based trade. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are examples of nations turning to non-dollar settlements.
6.3 Renewable Energy Transition
As the world moves toward renewable energy and electric vehicles, long-term oil demand may decline. This could erode the centrality of the petrodollar in the global system.
6.4 De-dollarization Movements
Countries like BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are actively promoting alternatives to dollar dominance. The creation of BRICS financial frameworks could reduce reliance on the petrodollar.
Conclusion
The petrodollar system has been one of the most powerful and enduring mechanisms in the modern global economy. It links the world’s most traded commodity—oil—to the U.S. dollar, reinforcing American financial dominance for nearly five decades. Oil trade mechanisms, whether through physical barrels, futures contracts, or financial derivatives, all flow through this system, shaping the destiny of nations.
However, the petrodollar is not invincible. Geopolitical rivalries, overuse of U.S. sanctions, the rise of China, and the gradual energy transition toward renewables are all eroding its absolute dominance. While the dollar is unlikely to lose its central role overnight, the world is clearly moving toward a more multipolar currency system for energy trade.
The story of the petrodollar is not just about oil or money—it is about power, politics, and the architecture of the global economy. Its future will depend on how nations navigate energy transitions, financial innovations, and geopolitical shifts in the decades to come.
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 4,437.74
1st Support: 4,264.46
1st Resistance: 4,691.56
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FOMC CRYPTO ANALYSISThe crypto market is showing big volatility right now, and with it comes opportunity.
In this video I break down Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader market, and explain why I see this as a chance to sell BTC strength and look for the right moment to rotate into altcoins.
I’ll cover:
- How current volatility is shaping the market
- Key BTC levels I’m watching with ICT concepts
- Why I’m preparing for an altcoin opportunity after this move
- The importance of timing rotation from BTC into alts
👉 Do you think it’s time to rotate into alts, or is BTC still in control? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #BTC #ICTTrading #CryptoStrategy
Ethereum: The Long Game, The Smart AccumulationEthereum Long-Term Bull Thesis with Accumulation Perspective
Ethereum remains at the core of the smart contract revolution, and the long-term structure continues to validate the bullish thesis. With scaling solutions gaining traction, institutional participation increasing, and ETH’s utility expanding across DeFi, gaming, tokenization, and beyond, the macro case for higher valuations over the coming years is undeniable.
From a price-structure perspective, ETH has broken above critical resistance and is sustaining momentum near multi-year highs, underscoring the strength of the current cycle. I remain firmly bullish on Ethereum’s long-term trajectory, viewing it not just as an asset, but as the backbone of the evolving decentralized economy.
That said, corrections are part of any healthy uptrend. Should the market provide a pullback, I’m eyeing the $3,200–$3,500 zone as a major accumulation area. This range is reinforced by strong confluence of historical support, key trendline intersections, and prior consolidation bases visible on both the daily and 4H charts. In my view, this zone represents where value buyers will reload in anticipation of Ethereum’s next leg higher.
In essence, my outlook does not change with short-term fluctuations: I am a long-term believer in ETH’s growth story. A correction into the $3,200–$3,500 accumulation zone would not be weakness — it would be opportunity.
Summary: Long-term bullish, unwavering conviction. Any dip toward the $3,200–$3,500 range is a gift for accumulation in an asset that I believe will continue to redefine digital finance.
ETH/USD Rebounds from Support, Eyes 4,767ETH/USD bounced from a protected low at 4,464, showing early signs of recovery. If price holds above support, a move toward the previous swing high at 4,767 is likely. The setup favors buyers as long as the protected low is not broken.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
The first step towards 5k - ETH weekly update Sep 15 - 21thDear investors and traders,
Ethereum is currently in the second wave of the minute cycle within the larger third wave unfolding in the minor cycle.Zooming into the fractal structure of the mentioned second wave, we can easily recognize the double three pattern as shown on the chart. My primary expactation therefore is a combination of a flat structure as a minuette wave w and a following zig zag a minuette wave y. I have chosen this scenario, because it's typical for altcoins to retrace their wave two a bit deeper then assets do normally. Also, the flat structure hasn't corrected this second wave too far, making a larger pullback likely. The zig zag probably made his subminuette wave a and should retrace now to levels of around 4.6k. The alternative scenario would be, that this second wave is already completed and with that we would be looking forward to 5k. For the alternative scenario to be completed, we need ETH to climb higher than the previous high of the minuette wave x.
Moving on to the liquidity analysis, we can see why this is my primary scenario: A massive amount of liquidity sitting just above the with the red line shown low of the minor wave two. I think we are going to drop again in the direction of this liquidity, but I hope it is going to melt down as people fear to get liquidated. The drawn in price target surely isn't where the liquidity sits, but it's where most fibonacci levels come together. The Orderbook is relatively empty in nearer space, but there is a large amount of short orders sitting at 5k.
Derivative data shows us turbulent funding rates because of people trying to catch this drop with large leverage market orders and getting liquidated, making the funding rate apparently to come back, maybe because they fear to loose more money now. Open interest stagnates, which is on the one hand positive because there are no more short positions adding up but this also means on the other hand that there are no long positions coming in. One thing I also noted in relation to people trying to catch the drop and burning themselves is that the liquidations are declining, which is indicating the leverage is decreasing.
Coming to exchange flows, the exchanges currently record an inflow of ethereum meaning that people are probably moving their coins from wallets to the exchange to sell them, which is a bearish signal. Also notable is that the exchange reserve is increasing, also indicating that people sell their ethereum.
The seasonality of ethereum shows us that the current Q3 was doing exceptionally well for ethereum and looking forward Q4 is also going to be green with a probability of 60%. September in the past was rather bearish then bullish, flipping the probabilities to a 40% probability to get a positive result. Nonetheless, the average return of September is 7%, which sparks hope.
Looking to Blackrock and other whales and entities, we can clearly see that Blackrock sold a part of it's ethereum (10k ETH) just slightly before the top and not buying again till now indicating the bottom is not in yet. The ETFs is still getting inflows, showing institutions accumulating ethereum.
All in all I am long and I think that the anticipated lows are optimal prices to establish swing long positions. Crucial for a impulsive move and the transition from a minute wave two to a minute wave 3 is the decline of liquidity at the low of the minor wave two.