Bullish count (in green) would have us working on a wave 4 down towards the 5000 level. Bearish count would have us either working on one final five wave impulse up or a truncated finish (top is in) and dramatic move downward. Key support is 5157.
Price action from 8 and 11 March looks corrective. If confirmed, I'm looking for daily higher-high to go no higher than 5394.75. Key supports are 4999.50 and 5129.50.
Daily higher-high from last post completed. Green count has ES1! completing five-wave impulse off October 2023 low of 4236.25. Red count has ES1! needing one more daily higher-low and higher-high to complete what I'm interpreting as a C-wave and likely market top.
I think the NYSE Composite Index best shows where I think equities are at and where I think they are going. Primary wave 1 ended in October 2007, wave 2 in March 2009, and wave 3 in January 2022. Wave 2 is a zigzag that lasted 511 days and resulted in a 59.74% drop. Wave 4 should be any corrective structure other than a zigzag. It has been 784 days since January...
The only bearish case I can make for BTCUSD at the moment. On the left, pitchfork drawn from ATL/Nov 2021 high/Nov 2022 low showing profit taking/resistance at .25, .5, and .75 areas (circled areas), with last stop in the 76k-80k area. On the right, you can see price action on log scale, where the count doesn't look as ridiculous. Primary wave 4 ends up being an...
Slightly altered count, which I think fits better with RSI and EW counts on smaller time scales. Looking for higher highs on daily, key levels 5059.25 and 4936.50.
We have three complete impulse waves off October 2023 low of 4173.25. If these three waves are themselves to complete a primary impulse wave up, then I would expect a correction to begin soon, with price not going above 5301. If there is more impulsive price action coming, then something else (not necessarily bullish) is going on. Key support levels are 4936.50...
Entire history of SPX. Within a primary impulsive wave structure, wave 2s seem to be relatively quick ABC zigzags and wave 4s tend to be drawn out/complicated flats, triangles, or double-threes. The first completed impulse ended in 1929, the second in 1987, and the third in 2007. It is possible that we are in wave 5 of the fourth complete impulse, with my SPX...
It looks like ES1! is working on a third impulse wave up from October 2023 low. Bullish scenario (green) would have this third wave up complete a full impulse wave off low of 4173.25. Bearish scenario (red) would have this third impulse up be the second impulse of a C wave, with an additional impulse needed to complete the C.
The price action in the orange ellipse looks corrective to me... it can be interpreted in several different ways, all depending on your bullish/bearish bias. However, the price action from the October 2023 low looks very much like two impulse waves (blue and green ellipses) separated by an expanded flat. Bulls need 4830.75 and 4702.00 to hold as support and for...
I had a hard time seeing the price action in the ellipse as anything but an impulse wave, and it may very well still be. If it is, then I present the idea that move off the low of 15473.78 is about to complete an impulse wave 1, and primary wave 2 is about to begin, with the November 2022 low to hold as support.
Area in ellipse looks like a triangle to me, and based on price action, it looks more like a B wave than a wave 4. I think the high of 48973.82 will hold as resistance for the forseeable future.
A novel (and most direct) count to get BTCUSD back to ATHs. This count has wave 1,2,3, and 4 of the primary impulse completed, looking for expanded wave 5 to break 68997.75 resistance.
A less bullish count compared to yesterday's analysis. This version has price forming wave 5 of the primary wave 3. I think this version conforms better with equity markets and how I see their prices moving in the next few weeks/months.
Looking for a wave 3 impulse to ATHs. Eventually, I think this either forms a zigzag or continues to impulse up much higher.
ES1! working on wave 3 of impulse A. I believe we will see a zigzag correction over the next few months to complete the Y of the WXY from October 2022 low, with the ATH to be challenged/surpassed. This WXY will complete the B of a flat (regular or expanded), with an impulse wave C to complete the correction from January 2022 high.
My count still has three 1/2's, zigzag correction in progress. Would like to see strong buying after today's selloff to be more confident. Bullish trend intact above 24916.18.
Gold looks very bullish, long-term. Wave 5's tend to be the most extended. I have gold in the primary wave 5, with subwave 1 and 2 complete. If price action from years 1976-1980 are a guide (orange ellipse), gold should top above 8k this decade. Bullish on gold above 1810.58