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ETH Market Structure — Multi-Timeframe OverviewETH is coiling after a strong impulse; higher-highs and higher-lows remain intact. We map the paths, define the sweep zones, and let price confirm. When a condition is met, we decide based on live LTF confluence (15–60m PA, CVD, funding, OI) and post signals in real time for precision. 1W • Holds near 4.37k after an impulsive ≈2.9k → 4.8k leg. • Weekly structure bullish (clean HH–HL). • 4.1–4.2k = first structural defense before next markup. 2D • Compression between 4.15–4.75k. • Reclaim > 4.75k → continuation toward 5.0–5.2k liquidity pocket. • Close < 4.1k → deeper pullback to ≈3.8k mid-range. • Declining volume = equilibrium before the next impulse. 12H • Local sweep of 4.6–4.7k highs met rejection with soft OI unwind. • Short-term structure mildly corrective inside the larger bullish leg. • POC ≈ 4.37k acts as a magnet. 📈 Orderflow / Derivatives (Binance + Bybit) • POC: ≈ 4.35k • OI: ≈ $27B, flat — no cascade risk • Funding: +0.01–0.02% (neutral/slightly positive) • CVD: spot bids absorbing shorts • Liquidation clusters: < 4.25k and > 4.75k • 3-mo basis: 5.5% → 4.8% — healthy cool-off ⚔️ Sweep Zones / Execution Boxes 🔶 Resistance Sweep Zone — 4.72k → 4.85k • Liquidity from equal highs + weekly wick confluence. • 12H close > 4.85k with OI rising and funding > 0.03% = breakout leg to 5.1–5.3k. • Fast rejection + OI drop = short scalp reversion → 4.35k POC. 🟩 Support Sweep Zone — 4.10k → 4.25k • Last bullish OB + visible footprint POC. • 12H close < 4.1k with rising OI = fresh short momentum → 3.75–3.85k liquidity rebuild. • Hold + delta absorption = reload zone → 4.7k target. ⚫ Deep Liquidity Zone — 3.70k → 3.85k • Macro support shelf + monthly FVG fill. • Failure here = macro structure shift → risk toward ≈3.3k. 🧭 Two-Path Playbook Bullish IF: HTF acceptance > 4.75k (breakout confirmation if 12H > 4.85k with OI↑ & funding > 0.03%) → 5.1–5.3k. Bearish IF: 12H < 4.1k with OI↑ (fresh shorts) → 3.75–3.85k liquidity rebuild. Context note: ETHBTC ≈ 0.0358 stabilizing after a multi-month downtrend → green shoots for ETH-ecosystem rotation if BTC.D < 60% persists. We post signals only when triggers actually fire, using live lower-timeframe confirmation for reliability and precision.
by candle_crafts
ETHUSDT 1H - Key Liquidity Zones & Bullish Reversal Potential ETHUSDT 1H Analysis: Price is reacting from a critical support zone between the Fib 0.5 - 0.618 retracement and previous day low, both marked as high-liquidity areas. If current support holds, expect a potential bounce targeting the previous day’s high ($4,530.80), with further upside toward the buy side liquidity at $4,748.04. Watch for confirmation in the highlighted demand zone for low-risk long setups. A break below $4,143.60 would invalidate this scenario and shift focus to lower sell side liquidity.” This chart setup is useful for traders seeking possible long opportunities, with clearly defined risk and upside targets.
Long
by TheWallstreetCapital
U.S. Federal Reserve Policy and Interest RatesThe Backbone of Global Economic Stability. Introduction The United States Federal Reserve (commonly known as the Fed) stands as one of the most influential institutions in the global financial system. Its policies, particularly regarding interest rates, have far-reaching consequences — not only for the U.S. economy but also for financial markets, currencies, trade flows, and economic stability across the world. The Fed’s ability to adjust interest rates and implement monetary policies allows it to control inflation, influence employment levels, and stabilize economic growth. In this essay, we will explore in detail the evolution, mechanisms, tools, and impacts of the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, with a special focus on interest rates — their role, rationale, and implications for both domestic and international economies. 1. The Role and Structure of the U.S. Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve System was established in 1913 through the Federal Reserve Act, in response to recurring financial panics and instability in the U.S. banking system. Its primary mission is to promote a stable monetary and financial environment. The Fed operates through three key entities: The Board of Governors – Located in Washington, D.C., consisting of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Twelve Regional Federal Reserve Banks – These regional banks represent different districts and carry out the Fed’s policies locally. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – Comprising the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents, this committee is the primary decision-making body for setting interest rates and implementing monetary policy. The Fed’s dual mandate is to achieve: Maximum employment, and Stable prices (low and predictable inflation). In addition, the Fed seeks to moderate long-term interest rates and maintain the stability of the financial system. 2. The Tools of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy To achieve its goals, the Federal Reserve uses several key tools: a. Open Market Operations (OMO) This is the primary tool for controlling short-term interest rates. The Fed buys or sells government securities (like U.S. Treasury bonds) in the open market. Buying securities increases money supply, lowers interest rates, and stimulates economic activity. Selling securities decreases money supply, raises interest rates, and curbs inflationary pressure. b. The Discount Rate This is the interest rate the Fed charges commercial banks for short-term loans through its discount window. Lowering this rate encourages banks to borrow more and lend to businesses and consumers, while increasing it discourages lending and cools the economy. c. Reserve Requirements This refers to the percentage of deposits that banks must hold as reserves. Lowering reserve requirements increases available funds for lending, boosting liquidity and credit growth. Raising them does the opposite, restricting credit. d. Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) The Fed pays interest on reserves that banks hold at the central bank. Adjusting this rate influences how much banks lend versus how much they keep in reserves, indirectly impacting money supply. e. Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) In extraordinary circumstances, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 pandemic, the Fed uses QE to purchase long-term securities, injecting liquidity into the economy. Conversely, Quantitative Tightening (QT) involves selling assets or allowing them to mature to reduce liquidity and combat inflation. 3. Interest Rate Policy: The Core of Monetary Control Interest rates lie at the heart of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Federal Funds Rate — the rate at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight — is the most critical benchmark. When the Fed changes the target range for this rate, it indirectly affects: Consumer borrowing costs (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans), Business investment decisions, Government borrowing costs, and The valuation of financial assets globally. a. When the Fed Raises Interest Rates Inflation Control: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slowing spending and investment, thereby cooling inflation. Currency Appreciation: The U.S. dollar strengthens as higher rates attract foreign investors seeking better returns. Stock Market Impact: Equity prices often fall due to higher discount rates and reduced profit expectations. Global Ripples: Emerging markets may face capital outflows as investors shift to U.S. assets. b. When the Fed Lowers Interest Rates Stimulating Growth: Cheaper credit encourages consumption, business expansion, and investment. Weakening of Dollar: A lower yield reduces demand for the U.S. dollar, making exports more competitive. Boost to Financial Markets: Lower discount rates increase asset valuations, benefiting equity and bond markets. Support During Crises: Rate cuts are often used during recessions to stimulate economic recovery. 4. Historical Perspective: Major Fed Rate Cycles a. The Volcker Era (Late 1970s–1980s) Inflation had surged due to oil shocks and loose monetary policy. Chairman Paul Volcker implemented drastic rate hikes, pushing the federal funds rate above 20% in 1981. This aggressive stance broke the back of inflation but triggered a short-term recession. b. The Greenspan Era (1987–2006) Under Alan Greenspan, the Fed emphasized gradualism and market-friendly communication. It managed crises like the 1987 stock market crash, the dot-com bubble, and early 2000s recessions through strategic rate adjustments. c. The Bernanke and Yellen Years (2006–2018) The 2008 Global Financial Crisis marked a shift to unconventional tools. The Fed slashed rates to near zero and launched Quantitative Easing to revive the economy. Later, under Janet Yellen, gradual normalization began. d. The Powell Era (2018–Present) Jerome Powell has faced extraordinary challenges: trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and post-pandemic inflation. After slashing rates to zero in 2020, the Fed initiated its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades starting in 2022 to combat inflation exceeding 9%, raising rates to over 5% by 2023. 5. Impact of Fed Interest Rate Decisions on the U.S. Economy a. Inflation Control Rising rates slow consumer and corporate spending, helping control inflation by cooling demand. Conversely, rate cuts stimulate demand and can raise inflation expectations. b. Employment and Wages As borrowing costs rise, companies may delay hiring or expansion. High rates can increase unemployment in the short run, but the Fed’s goal is to maintain long-term price stability, which supports sustainable employment. c. Housing Market Mortgage rates move closely with the Fed’s actions. A rate hike can significantly slow housing demand, reduce affordability, and depress home prices. d. Business Investment When borrowing becomes costly, companies cut capital expenditure. Sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and real estate often feel the strongest impact. e. Consumer Behavior Interest rate changes directly affect credit cards, auto loans, and savings yields, influencing household spending patterns and savings rates. 6. Global Implications of U.S. Interest Rate Policy The Federal Reserve’s decisions ripple through the global economy because the U.S. dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency. a. Capital Flows When U.S. rates rise, capital often flows from emerging markets to the U.S. in search of higher returns. This can weaken developing economies’ currencies and strain their debt servicing. b. Exchange Rate Volatility Higher U.S. yields strengthen the dollar, making imports cheaper but hurting exports. For other countries, a strong dollar raises the cost of dollar-denominated debt. c. Commodity Prices Commodities like oil and gold are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar typically depresses commodity prices, affecting global trade balances. d. Global Stock Markets U.S. rate hikes often lead to a decline in global equity valuations as risk-free yields become more attractive compared to stocks. 7. Challenges in Monetary Policy Implementation Despite its tools and experience, the Fed faces several challenges: a. Balancing Inflation and Growth The dual mandate creates trade-offs. Tightening to control inflation may harm employment, while loosening to support jobs risks fueling inflation. b. Time Lags Monetary policy operates with delays — it can take months for rate changes to influence inflation, employment, and GDP. c. Global Linkages The interconnected global economy means domestic policy changes can trigger unintended international consequences, such as currency depreciation or capital flight in other nations. d. Market Expectations The Fed’s credibility and communication are vital. Miscommunication or unexpected decisions can cause financial volatility. 8. The Role of Forward Guidance and Communication In modern monetary policy, communication is as powerful as action. Through forward guidance, the Fed provides information about its future policy intentions to shape market expectations. For instance, during periods of uncertainty, clear communication can stabilize bond markets and prevent panic. Conversely, unexpected policy shifts — often referred to as “Fed shocks” — can cause sharp asset price movements. 9. The Future of Fed Policy and Interest Rates The future of Federal Reserve policy will likely be shaped by new economic realities: Digital Currency and Technology: The rise of digital payments and discussions on a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) could redefine how monetary policy is transmitted. Climate Risk and Sustainability: The Fed is beginning to factor climate-related risks into its analysis, recognizing their long-term economic impact. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Global tensions, trade wars, and supply chain disruptions can complicate inflation dynamics and policy effectiveness. Data-Driven Policy: The increasing use of real-time data and AI-driven forecasting tools will make policy more responsive and precise. In coming years, the Fed must navigate between promoting growth and preventing inflation resurgence — a balancing act made harder by evolving global economic dynamics. Conclusion The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy and interest rate decisions lie at the center of global economic stability. Through meticulous management of the federal funds rate and other instruments, the Fed influences inflation, employment, and investment patterns across the world. While its actions are designed primarily for the U.S. economy, the ripple effects extend to every major financial center and emerging market. In an era of globalization, digital transformation, and persistent uncertainty, the Fed’s challenge is to maintain credibility, transparency, and flexibility. Ultimately, effective Federal Reserve policy ensures not only the health of the American economy but also the broader balance of the global financial system — a responsibility that underscores its position as one of the most powerful economic institutions in the world.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
ETH Daily – Pullback After Rejection, Eyes on 0.5 FibETH Daily – Rejected at the Highs, Searching for Support ETH was once again rejected from the ATH zone on Monday, October 6, failing to establish a breakout above resistance. After losing the 50MA, price is now approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $4321, which could serve as the next key support area. From a system perspective, the structure reads: Price < SMA < MLR < BB Center — confirming a short-term bearish trend. Momentum indicators also point to weakness: RSI has crossed below its moving average, and MACD is starting to turn red. This pullback mirrors broader market consolidation after BTC’s ATH, showing that ETH remains sensitive to overall liquidity flows. For now, the short-term bias remains bearish unless price manages to hold the 0.5 Fib support and stabilize around it. A close above that level would be the first sign of potential recovery. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.
by vagada
The U.S.–China Trade WarIntroduction The U.S.–China trade war, one of the most significant economic confrontations in modern history, represents far more than a dispute over tariffs and trade imbalances. It is a geopolitical and economic conflict between the two largest economies in the world—one an established superpower, the United States, and the other, China, an emerging global powerhouse. At its core, the trade war reflects deeper struggles over technology, global influence, intellectual property rights, and the future architecture of the global economy. Beginning officially in 2018 under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the trade war disrupted global supply chains, affected billions of consumers, and redefined international trade relations. The tariffs imposed by both sides reshaped business decisions, investment patterns, and economic strategies across the globe. Although several rounds of negotiations and partial deals have attempted to ease tensions, the rivalry persists, influencing trade policy, economic planning, and diplomacy even into the mid-2020s. This essay explores the origins, dynamics, and far-reaching consequences of the U.S.–China trade war. It examines the historical background, economic and political motivations, key developments, global reactions, and long-term implications for international trade and economic order. 1. Background: U.S.–China Economic Relations Before the Trade War 1.1 The Rise of China as a Global Economic Power Over the past four decades, China’s economic transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. Following economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, China transitioned from a centrally planned system to a market-oriented economy. The nation’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 marked a turning point, integrating China into the global trading system and allowing it to become the “world’s factory.” China’s GDP grew at an average of 9–10% annually for decades, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. Its exports—ranging from low-cost manufactured goods to high-tech products—flooded global markets. By 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. 1.2 The U.S.–China Trade Relationship For decades, the U.S. and China maintained a mutually beneficial, though increasingly unbalanced, trade relationship. The United States became China’s largest export market, while American companies gained access to cheap Chinese manufacturing and labor. However, this relationship created large trade imbalances. By 2017, the U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $375 billion, the largest bilateral trade deficit in the world. While American consumers benefited from lower prices, U.S. policymakers and industries grew concerned about lost manufacturing jobs, intellectual property theft, and China’s alleged unfair trade practices. These issues planted the seeds of economic confrontation that would later erupt into a full-scale trade war. 2. Causes of the U.S.–China Trade War 2.1 The Trade Imbalance A central grievance of the U.S. was the massive trade deficit with China. The Trump administration viewed this imbalance as evidence that trade relations were unfair and that China was manipulating the system to its advantage. While economists argue that trade deficits are not inherently harmful, politically, the deficit symbolized lost jobs and weakened American industries. 2.2 Intellectual Property and Technology Theft Another major factor was the alleged theft of intellectual property (IP). The U.S. accused China of forcing American companies operating in China to transfer technology as a condition of market access. Reports suggested that Chinese firms benefited from stolen U.S. trade secrets, patents, and software, particularly in advanced sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and biotechnology. 2.3 “Made in China 2025” Strategy China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, launched in 2015, aimed to transform the country into a global leader in advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries such as robotics, AI, and renewable energy. The U.S. perceived this policy as a direct challenge to American technological dominance and economic leadership. Washington feared that China’s state-led industrial policies would tilt global competition unfairly. 2.4 Currency Manipulation Accusations The U.S. also accused China of artificially devaluing the yuan to make Chinese exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thereby maintaining its export competitiveness. Although this accusation has been debated, it contributed to the perception that China was manipulating market dynamics to gain an advantage. 2.5 Political and Strategic Rivalry Beyond economics, the trade war was deeply rooted in strategic competition. The U.S. viewed China’s growing influence in Asia, its Belt and Road Initiative, and its military modernization as a challenge to American global dominance. Thus, the trade conflict became a proxy for broader geopolitical rivalry. 3. Timeline of Key Events 3.1 2018: The War Begins March 2018: The U.S. imposed tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports, targeting China among other nations. April 2018: China retaliated with tariffs on $3 billion worth of U.S. goods, including agricultural products. July 2018: The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responded in kind. September 2018: The U.S. levied tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, prompting further Chinese retaliation. 3.2 2019: Escalation and Negotiations May 2019: Trade talks broke down, and the U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. August 2019: The U.S. labeled China a “currency manipulator.” December 2019: Both nations agreed on a “Phase One” trade deal, easing tensions. 3.3 2020: The Phase One Deal The Phase One Agreement, signed in January 2020, required China to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years and improve intellectual property protections. However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade flows, and China failed to meet its purchase commitments. 3.4 2021–2024: Lingering Tensions Even after President Joe Biden took office, most tariffs remained in place. The administration maintained a tough stance on China, focusing on strategic decoupling, technology restrictions, and alliances with other democratic nations to counter China’s rise. The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act (2022) and export controls on semiconductors further intensified competition. 4. Economic Impact of the Trade War 4.1 Impact on the U.S. Economy The trade war had mixed effects on the American economy. Manufacturing and Agriculture: U.S. manufacturers faced higher input costs due to tariffs on Chinese components, while farmers suffered from China’s retaliatory tariffs on soybeans, pork, and corn. The U.S. government provided billions in subsidies to affected farmers. Consumers: American consumers paid higher prices for goods such as electronics, clothing, and furniture. Studies by the Federal Reserve and academic institutions found that most tariff costs were passed on to U.S. consumers. Employment: While some domestic industries benefited from tariff protections, others faced uncertainty, layoffs, and reduced investment. 4.2 Impact on the Chinese Economy China also faced significant challenges: Export Decline: Chinese exports to the U.S. fell, forcing many manufacturers to seek alternative markets. Economic Slowdown: China’s GDP growth slowed from over 6% in 2018 to around 5% in 2020. Currency Fluctuations: The yuan depreciated during the height of the trade war, cushioning export losses but signaling instability. Policy Response: China implemented fiscal stimulus measures and accelerated domestic innovation to reduce reliance on U.S. technologies. 4.3 Global Impact The trade war had global ripple effects: Supply Chains: Many multinational companies diversified production away from China to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico. Commodity Markets: Global demand fluctuations affected prices for oil, metals, and agricultural goods. Stock Markets: Trade tensions fueled market volatility and investor uncertainty. Global Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the trade war shaved 0.8% off global GDP by 2020. 5. Technological Competition and Decoupling 5.1 The Technology Frontline Technology became the heart of the trade war. The U.S. targeted Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE, citing national security concerns. Restrictions were imposed on the export of American semiconductors, software, and equipment to Chinese firms. The U.S. also pressured allies to exclude Huawei from 5G networks. 5.2 Semiconductor and AI Race Semiconductors emerged as the most critical battleground. The U.S. sought to limit China’s access to advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and defense systems. In response, China invested heavily in building its domestic semiconductor capabilities, aiming for technological self-sufficiency. 5.3 Digital Decoupling The concept of “decoupling”—separating U.S. and Chinese technological ecosystems—gained traction. This shift included restrictions on data sharing, investment screening, and the creation of alternative technology supply chains. While full decoupling remains unlikely, the trend has reshaped the global tech landscape. 6. Political and Strategic Dimensions 6.1 Nationalism and Domestic Politics In both countries, nationalism played a major role. In the U.S., the trade war was framed as a battle to protect American jobs and sovereignty. In China, the government used the conflict to rally domestic support and promote economic self-reliance under slogans like “dual circulation” and “national rejuvenation.” 6.2 Global Alliances and Power Shifts The trade war pushed countries to reassess alliances and trade policies. The European Union, Japan, India, and ASEAN nations found themselves balancing relations between the U.S. and China. Many nations benefited from supply chain diversification, attracting new investments as companies sought alternatives to China. 6.3 The New Cold War Narrative Many analysts have described the trade war as part of a broader “New Cold War”—an ideological, technological, and strategic struggle between democratic capitalism and authoritarian state capitalism. Unlike the U.S.–Soviet Cold War, however, the U.S. and China remain economically intertwined, creating a complex interdependence. 7. Lessons Learned and the Future of Global Trade 7.1 The Limits of Tariffs The trade war demonstrated that tariffs alone cannot resolve complex structural issues. While they exerted pressure, they also harmed domestic stakeholders and disrupted global commerce. Both economies remained resilient but not without cost. 7.2 The Shift Toward Protectionism The conflict accelerated a broader global shift toward economic nationalism and protectionism. Countries began to prioritize domestic production, strategic autonomy, and resilience over globalization. The COVID-19 pandemic further reinforced this trend. 7.3 The Redefinition of Global Supply Chains Multinational corporations began adopting a “China + 1” strategy—maintaining operations in China while expanding production elsewhere. This diversification has benefited emerging economies like Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. 7.4 The Rise of Technological Sovereignty Both nations are pursuing technological sovereignty—control over critical technologies like semiconductors, 5G, and AI. This race will define future power dynamics more than traditional trade measures. 8. The Way Forward 8.1 Diplomatic Engagement and Cooperation Despite tensions, cooperation remains essential on global issues like climate change, cybersecurity, and pandemic response. Constructive dialogue and adherence to multilateral institutions such as the WTO can prevent further escalation. 8.2 Economic Rebalancing Both nations must address the structural causes of imbalance. The U.S. should invest in innovation, education, and industrial competitiveness, while China should open markets, reform state enterprises, and enhance transparency. 8.3 The Role of Multilateralism Global trade institutions need reform to reflect modern economic realities. A rules-based system that ensures fair competition and technological collaboration is crucial for global stability. Conclusion The U.S.–China trade war is more than a dispute over tariffs or trade deficits—it is a defining conflict of the 21st century that encapsulates the struggle for global leadership in economics, technology, and ideology. While both nations suffered short-term losses, the deeper consequence has been a reconfiguration of the global economic order. The trade war accelerated shifts toward protectionism, technological nationalism, and supply chain diversification. It exposed vulnerabilities in global interdependence and highlighted the need for a balanced approach between competition and cooperation. As both the U.S. and China continue to shape the post-globalization era, the rest of the world watches closely, adapting to the new reality of multipolar economic power. Ultimately, the future of global prosperity depends not on economic warfare but on how effectively the two giants can coexist—balancing competition with collaboration, and rivalry with responsibility. Only through a stable and fair trade environment can sustainable global growth be achieved in the decades ahead.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
Trigger: 4h-close above 4732 (Donch-High)What does it mean now 1. The trend is strong: MACD↑, ADX ~51, CMF>0, candles above BB-Upper and above Keltner-Upper — the trend extension continues after the squeeze. 2. But: OI is falling (z168 < 0, ROC<0) → the movement is mainly driven by short covering/offer withdrawals, and its sustainability depends on the stabilization/growth of OI. 3. On the profile, we are at the upper limit of value (VAH ~4763); above is LVN ~4813 (a thin zone that can accelerate the breakout), and below is the POC magnet ~4497. ⸻ Key levels • Resistances: 4732 (Donchian-High 20/55) → 4763 (VAH) → 4813 (LVN) → 4870-4900 zone (above LVN/narrow volumes). • Supports: 4670/4666 (Keltner/BB-Upper — first edge) → 4583 (Donchian-Mid 20, ≈EMA20) → 4531 (Keltner-Mid) → 4497 (POC) → 4433 (Donchian-Low 20). ⸻ Scenarios and triggers (not the financial council) A) Continuation of the upward trend (basic) Why basic: strong trend (ADX~51), positive flows (CMF>0, MFI~67), MACD momentum↑, exit above BB/Keltner. • Trigger: 4h-close above 4732 (Donch-High) + ~0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4739, with CMF>0, OBV z>0 and OI stabilization (does not fall). • Targets: 4763 (VAH) → 4813 (LVN — thin acceleration corridor) → 4870-4900. • Invalidator: a quick return below 4670/4666 (Keltner/BB-Upper) with a weakening of the MACD histogram and a drop in the RSI<65. B) Rotation to the middle / balance • Trigger: rejection of 4732–4763 (extended upper shadows) + 4h-close < 4670/4666, RSI goes < 60, MFI < 50, OI grows on the fall. • Targets: 4583 → 4531 → 4497 (POC). If weak, 4433 (Don 20 Low). C) Squeeze acceleration up (if shorts accumulate under 4750–4760) • Trigger: breakout > 4739 on falling OI on a green candle (short-top) or a sharp increase in delta/OBV. • Targets: 4813 → 4870–4900. ⸻ Tactics (example of logic) • Impulse long: after fixing > 4739. Partial fixation at 4763, then trail to the area of 4813 → 4870–4900. Stop under 4670/4666 (or under the re-test level of the breakout). • Reversal long (conservative): zones 4583–4531/4497 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF>0, OBV z>0). Stop under 4433. • Contra-trend short: only with a clear rejection of 4732–4763 + RSI/MFI reversal down, MACD weakening and OI growth on the fall. Targets are 4670 → 4583 → 4531/4497; stop is 4765–4775. ⸻ Briefly: what to expect • The basic expectation is for the trend to continue if it consolidates above 4739, with targets of 4763 → 4813 → 4870–4900. • If we get a rejection and a close below 4670/4666, it is logical to rotate to 4583 → 4531 → 4497 (POC) to "reboot" the momentum. • An important filter is OI: stabilization/growth will support the uptrend; a continued decrease in OI on growth increases the risk of a rollback to POC.
by AlexeyBullBear0297
ETH/USDT Bullish Breakout Heist Plan – Are You Ready to Strike?🔥💎 ETH/USDT Crypto Heist Plan: Swing Trade Edition 💎🔥 Dear Thief OG’s & Market Robbers 🕵️‍♂️, The vault is loaded, and Ethereum vs. Tether (ETH/USDT) is about to get cracked wide open. We’ve spotted the weak spot in the system — and this time, it’s a bullish breakout heist. 📈💰 📊 Heist Blueprint: The Setup Asset: ETH/USDT (Crypto) 🌐 Style: Swing Trade ⏰ Plan: Bullish Breakout & Layered Entries ⚡ 🚪 Entry Points (Breaking Into the Vault) Breakout Entry: Break above 4800.00 — that’s our signal to strike 🚀 Layered Buy Orders (Thief Style): Stack your loot with multiple limit layers: 4700.00 4600.00 4500.00 (You can add more layers depending on your loot bag 💼) 🔔 Pro Tip: Set TradingView alarms at 4800.00 so you don’t miss the breakout moment. 🛑 Stop Loss (Cover Your Tracks) Thief SL placed at 4200.00 once breakout confirms ⚠️ Adjust your stop loss based on your own risk style & strategy — every thief has their own getaway plan. 🏃‍♂️💨 🎯 Target (Escape Point) Police barricade seen at 5300.00 🚔 Safer escape: 5200.00 — grab the loot and vanish before the cops arrive. 💸 📡 Why This Heist Works Breakout momentum above 4800 shows ETH is ready to run. Layering strategy = smarter accumulation while minimizing risk. Targeting clean levels where liquidity + resistance hide. ⚠️ Risk Warning: Every heist has danger — manage size, use layers, and don’t overexpose. Protect your loot like a true Thief OG. 🏴‍☠️ 💥 Support the Crew! 💥 Drop a like 👍, share a comment 💬, and follow 🚀 for more Thief Trader Heist Plans. The more noise we make, the stronger our gang becomes! 🕵️‍♂️💰
Long
by The-Thief
3
ETH Testing Descending Trendline — Targets 4,736 & 4,940Last week, Ethereum showed strong growth. The price is now right at a key descending trendline and trying to break through it. As long as the price stays above the SMA 50 , the green scenario remains in play, with targets at 4,736 and 4,940 . If the SMA 50 breaks, there’s a high probability of the ascending trendline breaking as well, which could send the price down to the weekly pivot point at 4,404 . I expect support around this level, as the SMA 200 could also reinforce it. After a successful bounce or a recovery above the pivot point, the next targets will be 4,600 – 4,700
by trading_mura