"Hey Doc, she's still dead"!The 6J is still dead. The "experts" think they can guess the direction. Most got stopped out on the most recent break lower. Head fakes will kill your P&L. Don't let the pundits lull you in to a stupid trade. We are still on the side lines with the $J61!. There is NO edge. Be smart and keep your powder dry while waiting. There are better trades available.
Trade ideas
YEN consolidation (revised)YEN (J6U14) has been ranging between 0.9931 and 0.9600 from Feb to Jul 2014 (a part from a false breakout in June). A close above 0.9931 would probably project the price higher to 1.02680. I'm probably entering long 0.9884 as indicated in the chart with intermediate objective 1.0050 expected around the 22nd of July 2014.
YEN consolidationYEN (J6U14) has been ranging between 0.9931 and 0.9600 from Feb to Jul 2014 (a part from a false breakout in June). A close above 0.9931 would probably project the price higher to 1.02680.
Get the crash cart. The 6J is officially dead in the water. We will avoid this until we see defined breaks. See our last posts for break areas. If you think you "must" trade it...understand it's going to be choppy ride and it will most likely eat your trade account. Be patient and find a better instrument to trade. Keep your powder dry.
What next?The 6J has broken out (minor) to the downside and we are at the go-no go area. Aggressive traders will sell this area. We are being very cautious due to the recent false breaks. We choose to sit this out until we see a better break. What does that look like? If we break 9725 on the down side we will nibble (very small) to the downside. If we break 9920 on the upside we will buy all pullbacks. It's interesting to note that while the S&P is rallying the 6J is doing nothing. If the 6J breaks to the downside we will see much higher in the indices. If we see a nice break to the upside then we could sell off for a while in the indices. With this pull back we are in the middle of the junk and it's a fight for control...try not to get caught in the fight. Right or wrong the big boys have deeper pockets.
Yen long positions look very interesting hereAfter watching the Japanese Yen trend lower for more than 77 weeks it appears we are now starting to see the smatterings of a bottom coming in on the currency. While it may be a bit early to 'pound-the-table' I do see an interesting opportunity presenting itself within the options space. According to my very strict WCTS model, I can only consider a long position (through options) if the current market price of a 6 month option is half of what I believe the intrinsic value of the option will be at my target price. (intrinsic value = strike price - target price). Today I took a look at the call options and we appear to have just that situation. Using a very conservative price target (W. Gann's 50% rule) I believe the currency can realistically trade back into the 1.1377 area. At the same time, I can buy a seven month (December, 2014) 1.10 call option for about .002 points (or about $250). Should the market go to my target, that option will have an intrinsic value of .0377 or about $471. This is an interesting trade because the low cost enables me to buy 2 contracts (total invested is about $500). I will look to sell 1/2 the position should prices double and ride the remaining 'free' position into expiry. Should the Yen appreciate into the Optimal Trade Entry (short) window the remaining option could realistically have $13,000 of intrinsic value - not a bad reward/risk ratio and something all traders should consider in earnest.
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Yen: Abenomics break?Market looks unhappy that Abenomics will print the same amount of money. Wants him to print more and destroy faster than normally expected every Japanese household that could not possibly afford not even heating their homes, after all this devaluation.
5p wedge so far, needs a strong push to create a swing low morning star that maybe will lead to break the wedge.
Momentum is creating an IH&S pattern and maybe even build one more right shoulder as symmetry hints.
61.8 area, while the upward trend line that provides support comes from 1985 through 2007 lows.
All the best
Cheers
P.
Getting Ready6J is winding tight. Don't caught up in the guessing game. Wait for the hat tip...tradem well!
Yen Futures - Still undecidedWith Russia/Ukraine weighing in on the markets, the Yen is one of the obvious safe havens in a risk off environment. But with easy money policy, its been getting weaker and weaker, which makes one wonder if this recent move to the upside is a change of trend or just a retracement.
Oscillators don't give out much clues. But if we look to the past, we see a short entry example. If the trend were followed, stops would be trailed to 0.9959. If this is taken out and price finds support (meaning: breaking the EMA + a support point) could mean a possible push higher. (So it would make sense to wait for a retest on the MA before taking longs).
Alternatively, the Yen could just continue pushing lower with the current rally being seen just as a mere retracement to the downtrend.
YEN UPYen is oversold and has found finally support at 0.96750. A bounce is in the cards. Watch out the Nikkei for a short too.
^Jj daily - meaning short EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY, etcshould go to at least 38.2, possibly higher. 61.8 in line with TL again
YEN forming a nice triangle on a weekly chart.The YEN looks to either break down and continue down all year, or break up above the triangle, and cause a lot of confusion for the Japanese finance ministers.
$JPY - Obama The PeacemakerVersion takes into account the positive solutions in the Mediterranean basin. The structure will work to generate impulse. We are waiting for the end of the fourth wave.
Yen Gartley in the making?A turn on Tuesday would fit nicely with the Lunar phase and Gartley ideal price retracement of 78.6%. Let's see..
$JPY - The inverse situation.I expect the strengthening yen. We have the BOJ meeting / May 21-22 /. I think Mr. Kuroda fulfill his destiny.
Japanese YenShort the Japanese Yen has been by far 'The trade' of 2013. Now entering its 22nd week of a downward correction CRI's weekly commodity trend survey (www.therationalinvestor.ca) suggests the short came in at 123.99. Initial targets were hit and far exceeded and any remaining shorts from this trade (if you were able to trade multiple lots) ought to be considered 'free rides' at this point. Indeed, we are fast approaching two significant technical targets and what I would personally consider a very important level going forward. The psychologically important 100 level ought to act as a pivot for the next while and as the market consolidates we should see spikes higher and lower defining its trading range/boundaries. I fully expect one of those spikes to hit the OTE Long SS (70.5% retrace) and at the same time fill the long outstanding gap at 95.63. Should we go through a period of bottoming and come out the other side bullishly, I would expect a test of the OTE Short SS (70.5% retrace) as outlined on the chart above - but that is a big 'IF' and quite a ways down the road at this point.
