Kurt0sis

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About me "When the charts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
Joined Japan
Entering a high-risk period now..
Markets Allocation
30 % forex 18 % cryptocurrency 18 % commodities 35 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCUSD 20% | 8 USDJPY 15% | 6 CL1! 7% | 3 XAGUSD 7% | 3
Kurt0sis Kurt0sis SPX, D,
SPX: VIXFIX:VIX ratio calls major bottoms?
160 0 1
SPX, D
VIXFIX:VIX ratio calls major bottoms?

Using the scaled VIX Fix here. The proxy might be more useful in calling major bottoms, and the ratio (and it's MA) seems to give some indication at ratio<2 or so.

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis SPX, D,
SPX: VIX vs HV30 vs ATR30
38 0 0
SPX, D
VIX vs HV30 vs ATR30

ATR30 appears to follow VIX down better than HV30. One might be able to use HV30 and ATR30 as proxies for upper and lower bound for VIX.

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis AAPL, W, Short ,
AAPL: AAPL double top on heavy volume..hmm..
62 1 0
AAPL, W Short
AAPL double top on heavy volume..hmm..

..hmmmm

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX H EW3 short
30 1 1
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX H EW3 short

Most bearish development in a while..

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis XAGUSD, 180, Long ,
XAGUSD: Silver 3H 'Qwave Gartley' Long
79 2 3
XAGUSD, 180 Long
Silver 3H 'Qwave Gartley' Long

Hit 61.8% time retracement perfectly. Stop will be moved up to breakeven to ride this one much higher

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis XAGUSD, 180,
XAGUSD: Silver 3H Bullish Gartley setup in the making?
159 0 1
XAGUSD, 180
Silver 3H Bullish Gartley setup in the making?

Next New Moon this weekend should start a bullish period so look for a turnaround around Tuesday

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis USDJPY, 60,
USDJPY: USDJPY H Bearish Cypher
39 1 2
USDJPY, 60
USDJPY H Bearish Cypher

Time to hedge and re-enter long next week?

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis XGY0, D, Long ,
XGY0: Shanghai Index D Bullish Gartley
50 1 1
XGY0, D Long
Shanghai Index D Bullish Gartley

stop at 2,050. initial target at 2.618 price reverse retracement. Sorry, ignore the RSI here, the divergence is on the Weekly chart..

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis BTCUSD, 180,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD 180m Bitstamp vs Mtgox xchange arb? and.. Mercury RX
103 0 1
BTCUSD, 180
BTCUSD 180m Bitstamp vs Mtgox xchange arb? and.. Mercury RX

Looks like nice arbitrage.. I suppose the flipside is that you would have to take double 'BTCUSD credit-risk' to put on the trade. Probably worth it tho. Also note the timing of Mercury Retrograde, in traditional astrology the time where communication and electronic systems go haywire..

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis USDJPY, 60, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY H Long
89 8 2
USDJPY, 60 Long
USDJPY H Long

Planning to move up stops to breakeven and ride this higher

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: BTC D Blood on the Streets!
93 0 0
BTCUSD, D Long
BTC D Blood on the Streets!

I think there's now enough panic selling to take a risky long position. The initial stop is quite wide but I'm expecting to move it up to breakeven pretty soon. In addition to the high-probability Gartley (in my experience), note the correlation of major bottoms with full moons.

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis XAGUSD, 180,
XAGUSD: XAGUSD 3H Short-term top?
54 0 0
XAGUSD, 180
XAGUSD 3H Short-term top?

Looking for Silver to reach a top around 22 Tuesday before turning down to a nice entry point

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BTC D Make or Break?
681 3 3
BTCUSD, D
BTC D Make or Break?

Putting the recent plunge in perspective, there's been several similar corrections. Will this one be the final straw? Maybe not, but this drop would need to come to a halt around $400 by next week.

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis DJI, W,
DJI: DOW vs CAPEX
45 0 0
DJI, W
DOW vs CAPEX

EMA(2) crossover of the FRED Fixed Private Investments. A little late in 2010 but still worth to keep an eye on FPI, should it turn south here.

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis FB, D, Short ,
FB: FB Bearish Bat
52 0 0
FB, D Short
FB Bearish Bat

Ready to short here, just waiting on momentum to turn south. Sorry, title should read 'Bearish Butterfly'

Kurt0sis Kurt0sis AAPL, W, Short ,
AAPL: AAPL W Bearish Gartley
71 0 0
AAPL, W Short
AAPL W Bearish Gartley

Not extremely happy with the non-standard Gartley retracements here but risk-reward is good. Where is Icahn's stop, I wonder?

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