DAX has toppedA classic H&S top has been completed. YUK. These H&S patterns can lead to large declines. Only a close above today6's high would negate
Trade ideas
#202546 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We are almost exactly where we were 1 week ago and unless we stay below 24000 on Monday, there is a decent chance we will see a very similar week with support around 23600 and resistance around 24560. Clear triangle with mid-point around 24000. As of now there is nothing happening that could lead us to think this can make lower lows and head for 23000. Something needs to happen. What would that take? I don’t care for the reason tbh but I would need to see a bear gap staying open and continuous selling below 23600 with a big down day, closing at the lows. Otherwise it will just trade back up like literally every sell-off since June.
current market cycle: trading range (contracting triangle)
key levels for next week: 23600 - 24600
bull case: No side is favored so I spare you long texts for both sides. Bulls want to hit 24400+ again and they need to keep the market above 23500 or risk more downside.
Invalidation is below 23600ish.
bear case: Bears want lower lows below 23515 and expand the range to the downside. As of now I doubt they are strong enough for that. Much more likely that most bears will wait for higher prices above 24300 before shorting again.
Invalidation is above 24570.
short term: Neutral. Fade the extremes until we expand the range again.
medium-long term - from 2025-11-16: Still expecting 23000 to get hit this year.
FDAX UpdateRSI is close to oversold but MFI isn't on the 3hr chart.
I expanded the chart to show the spring TACO gap. I think FDAX is headed for it, so be careful about holding long positions overnight.
Also, it means cryptos are dead.
FDAX Daily ChartI keep mentioning FDAX, this is why. It's about to lose the rangebound channel it's been in for months. If it breaks, I assume daily indicators will go oversold before we see a bounce. (Note: This IS a daily chart, not 3 hr)
3 hr indicators don't work too well if FDAX goes into a free fall. Just saying from past experience.
So far it looks like US futures traders appear to be betting that FDAX will bounce because ES1! is only down 10 pts. I'm not so sure it will, we'll find out tomorrow morning.
FDAX UpdateWell, there we go....
FDAX filled the Sunday gap, hit oversold, and took the US indices and cryptos with it.
Should bounce here, not sure how much.
FDAX UpdateRSI went oversold but MFI hasn't. That bottom line is the rangebound channel FDAX has been in since June, if it breaks, market is in trouble.
I'm guessing that it will break and that cryptos are a leading indicator.
FDAX UpdateFDAX hasn't filled the Sunday gap or gone oversold, but it can bounce anyways. Not really sure what the Euros will do tomorrow morning.
Maybe we gap down so the algos can buy futures for a lower price. FUtures are green AH but not by much,
FDAX UpdateOverbought on MFI and RSI, I think we see a dip Thu.
Also, BTC is no longer tracking the DAX, which is bearish for cryptos.
#202545 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We can only sell-off for good if we leave behind a big gap. Every new low is heavily bought and gaps close. It’s a weak bear channel where the upper channel line is around 24150 and the lower one at 23500. Any long closer to 23500 is good but I think we won’t dip much on Monday and go straight for 24k again.
current market cycle: weak bear trend
key levels for next week: 23500 - 24200
bull case: 24000 is the next target and then likely they also want a test of the bear trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 24100. If they break the trend line, there is no reason we can’t go above 24400+ again. Not much more magic to it tbh. Bulls bought every new low and the lower lows did not go far so bulls are somewhat favored for more upside early next week.
Invalidation is below 23500.
bear case: Bears need to print another lower high, preferably around 24000. They need to accelerate the bear trend or risk breaking out of it in favour of higher prices again. By acceleration I mean strong lower lows in a steeper bear channel. Right now the major lows are 23780 and 23515 which means the market sold off for ~1% over 20 days. This is more of a trending trading range than a strong trend. Best case scenario is a strong rejection below 23900 and new lows below 23500 on Monday.
Invalidation is above 24200.
short term: Neutral. I would like to see a re-test of 24000 and a strong rejection down again for new lows but for now, sideways 23700 - 24100 is most likely.
medium-long term - from 2025-11-01: 23000. Still expecting this to get hit.
FDAX UdateFDAX also went oversold on MFI and RSI so it got a bounce. This is bullish for Monday gap as well as cryptos. BTC has been tracking FDAX lately.
DAX ShortMy algo fired up a short signal on DAX which has been ranging for a long time. It should go down in the coming weeks.
FDAX UpdateGerman markets moving up, I guess it wants the upward pennant target. So bullish until Tuesday US market open, lol.
Could wind up a whipsaw week.
#202544 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Monthly chart tells you that this market has not moved anywhere since May. 5 consecutive monthly doji’s and 3 consecutive bearish ones at that. Doesn’t matter one bit until we get a daily close below 23k again. I have written it before. German GDP is likely contracting the second quarter in a row and the other one was flat. This market has no business being up here but that’s the reality. No way to anticipate when it will make lower lows again. Until then it’s about playing the range. Expecting a bigger move out of the triangle next week. Direction of that move is likely a coin-toss or maybe very slightly in favor of the bulls, since other markets are still max bullish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 23500 - 24900
bull case: 24230 would be the first lower high for bulls to regain and even then, we have another bear trend line right above it. Only argument for the bulls is that shorts below 24100 have not been profitable since September. Longs are the better r:r trade here around 24000 but the stop would likely have to be 23780.
Invalidation is below 23780.
bear case: Bears are not favored for more downside, given the 4h or daily chart. I expect this to become another higher low for couple more days or until we get a reasonable catalyst for the markets to finally pull back harder. Anything below 23800 would surprise me more than prices above 24500.
Invalidation is above 24230.
short term: Neutral. Only interested in longs around 24000 for at least 24100/24200. If bulls can not come around to event get above 24100 again and we have a decent 1h close below 24k, shorting for 24800 and hoping for 24500 is also a reasonable trade.
medium-long term - from 2025-11-01: 23000. Still expecting this to get hit.
FDAX Update (what's gonna cause the gap down next week)Futures trade in the same direction as the market that's open, Europe went down, which is why the market sold off this morning. It moved up after European markets closed.
I'm expecting a gap down Monday, apparently so were other people based on the EOD selloff.
I closed my long positions in the morning anyways. Did not go long in teh afternoon because I looked at teh NQ plot.
#202543 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to say. Many months in the same trading range and we are in the middle of it. Not making more out of this than it is, market is in balance around 24300. Fade the extremes until we get better follow-through to either side. I do think 24600+ is a bit more likely than < 23800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 24000 - 24600
bull case: Bulls want something above 24487 again but even if they get it, will it be a strong breakout for much higher prices again or will it become a form of a double top and faded? My money will likely be on the latter. Market is in balance, don’t try to make something up.
Invalidation is below 24000.
bear case: 24000 continues to be huge support and until we get multiple daily closes below it, we have to assume that the support continues. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24600 and go sideways until market get’s a real catalyst to price in at least some of the risks.
Invalidation is above 24487.
short term: Neutral.
medium-long term - from 2025-10-12: 23000.
FDAX PennantI think Europe follows through and breaks out to new ATH. That would imply a gap up on US indices every night, which is what's been happening anyways.
Fake-out of the triangle provided a long setupThis morning, we saw a clean fakeout of the triangle into the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, which provided a solid short opportunity.
Now, EUREX:FDAX1! is figthing to stay within the value area and ultimately push toward new all-time highs. However, there is significant resistance above, so remain cautious.
FDXM Weekly Plan 13 October 2025Look ahead to the week in FDXM.
Levels of interest mapped out using market profile and pivot level analysis. I'll look to execute on SFP's, LIS set ups and 08:15 am range set ups that occur around these levels and ONLY at these levels.
#202541 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Full ducking bear mode. Zero doubt we will get a correction. Market was waiting for a catalyst to start the profit taking and it’s likely full on now. Can I be wrong about this selling again and some “positive” trade-related news comes out on which we will print another new ath? Sure. Sometimes it’s just about putting on a trade with a decent stop and holding it until it reaches your target.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the lower tf was broken on Friday and we could be in a new bear trend down to 23000 or lower
key levels for next week: 23000 - 25000
bull case: Bulls want a pull-back and the higher they can get it, the more afraid the bears become again. If bulls are strong, they will retrace more than 50% of Friday’s selling, which is around 24550. If they do so, the downside will likely be limited to maybe another leg which might hit 24000 or not. As of now, given the news and the 4h chart, that thesis is very low probability.
Invalidation is below 24200.
bear case: Bears want to keep this selling as strong as possible now and quickly get us to 24000. There most will take a good chunk off and see how high we can bounce. The most important part for the bears now is to keep any bounce as shallow as possible. Best case scenario would be to move sideways around 24300 to max 24400 and then down to 24000. The quick move down is so important because that would open up a measured move down to 23000 and will be my favored path for the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Full ducking bear mode.
medium-long term from 2025-10-12: 23000.
Meanwhile in Europe...FDAX is just drifting sideways, now sure if it's topped out in the channel or if it's making a bull flag.
Keep an eye on it, because if Europe breaks out, they'll be pumping futures every morning.
ANotehr melt up, really?Europe has been pumping the market the last few days, if FDAX breaks out, we're probably looking at a melt up until end of Jan Fed meeting.
Unbelievable....
Don't recommend shorting anything unless it's a day trade. Also, expect a big pop in US markets when the budget deal gets done.
I'm not very bullish on this market, but I had to plot it to keep me from shorting stuff, lol.
#202539 - priceactiontds - weekly update - fdax
Good evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Got a minor pullback last week so outlook was fine but I can not hold on to bearish thoughts, given the tails below the prior 2 weekly bars. Easy invalidation here for both sides. Bulls need something above 24060 for more upside and bears a strong move below 23400 for more downside. As of now, sideways is the most likely outcome because this market has not moved at all for 3 straight weeks.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24750
bull case: Above 24060 they continue to have the trading range case. That has not changed and given the bullish close on Friday, I do think bulls are very slightly favored for 24k or more, than bears for testing down to 23500 or lower.
Invalidation is below 23700
bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high and continue sideways to down. If they fail at 23900, we will quickly test 24000/24060 and if they also fail there, many bears will give up because we could go back all the way to the bear trend line around 24200 or more. What do bears have going for them? Not much besides that we have not moved much in the past 3 weeks.
Invalidation is above 24060
short term: Neutral but very slightly favoring the bulls for a test 24200 or more.
medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks. Need a catalyst.
