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AUD/USD Rolling Spot Futures

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Bulls Cornered at Historic Oversold Zone - Spring Loads📊 To see my confluences and/or linework, step 1: grab chart, step 2: unhide Group 1 in object tree, step 3: hide and unhide specific confluences. 🎨 🎯 6A1!: Bulls Cornered at Historic Oversold Zone - Spring Loads The Market Participant Battle: Bears have systematically trapped bulls into a proven demand zone (Point 2 at 0.65880), creating a powerful compression pattern that's about to snap. The numbered reference points on the chart show how Point 3 closed above Point 1, making Point 2 a battlefield where proven buyers are congregating. At Point 4, we're returning to this exact zone where institutional buyers previously defended aggressively. This is a classic case where oversold bears have overplayed their hand, and smart money is quietly accumulating for a violent reversal. Confluences: Confluence 1: Proven Buyer Zone & Anchored VWAP Deviation The chart shows a powerful setup where price has returned to a proven buyer zone at 0.65880 (Point 2). What's particularly compelling is the anchored VWAP from Point 1, where price has pulled back to the 2nd deviation before bouncing above the 1st deviation. This is textbook mean reversion behavior indicating bears are exhausted and buyers are stepping in with conviction. Confluence 2: Fixed Range Volume Profile POC Magnet The Fixed Range Volume Profile from Points 0→3 reveals the Point of Control (POC) sits exactly where Point 4 is testing. This is institutional positioning at its finest - the highest volume traded area acts as a massive magnet pulling price back for accumulation. Smart money doesn't ignore these levels. Confluence 3: Footprint Chart Bullish Imbalances The footprint chart reveals stacked bullish imbalances with positive delta on large red bars - a clear sign absorption is occurring. On Friday the 19th at 3pm, we see positive delta on a massive red bar with price closing above a bullish imbalance. Bears tried to push through but were absorbed by aggressive buyers. Confluence 4: Second-Degree Bullish Divergence This is where it gets interesting - we have a double-layered bullish divergence. Price made a lower low at Point 4, but both RSI and MFI made higher lows. Additionally, we see candle-level bullish divergence forming. Both indicators are oversold at Point 4, creating a powder keg setup. Confluence 5: OBV Breakout & Bollinger Band Squeeze On-Balance Volume (OBV) has broken two down-sloped trendlines, indicating incoming buyers despite price weakness. Monthly VWAP shows price crossed under and is now back above, while price has been touching the lower Bollinger Band repeatedly - a self-similar pattern to previous major reversals. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: Multiple analysts noting AUD/USD holding above crucial 0.6600 support despite weak employment data - Recent News/Earnings: RBA surprisingly held rates at 3.85%, defying market expectations for cuts - Analyst Sentiment: COT data shows fastest short covering in 4.5 years - institutional repositioning underway - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Fed cut rates by 25bp to 4.00-4.25% range on September 17, weakening USD - Interest Rate Impact: Rate differential narrowing as Fed cuts while RBA holds - bullish for AUD Layman's Summary: Think of this like a rubber band stretched to its limit. The Australian Dollar has been beaten down so severely that even bad news can't push it lower. When everyone's betting one way (shorts), and the fundamentals start shifting (Fed cutting, RBA holding), you get explosive reversals. The smart money is quietly switching sides while retail remains bearish. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: Trend channel setup showing Points 1-3 progression - Significance: Clear bullish channel break and retest pattern - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Bollinger Bands with R/R overlay showing Gap Zones - Significance: 4.99 risk/reward ratio potential with clear zones - AGREES ✔ - Image 3: OBV/RSI/MFI indicator panel - Significance: Triple bullish divergence with OBV trendline breaks - AGREES ✔ - Image 4: Object tree revealing hidden confluences structure - Significance: Professional multi-layer analysis with VWAP and Volume Profile - AGREES ✔ - Image 5: Fixed Range Volume Profile visualization - Significance: POC sitting exactly at current test level confirming support - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: All charts unanimously confirm the bullish reversal setup. The combination of technical structure (channel support at proven buyer zone), volume analysis (POC magnetic effect drawing price), momentum divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV all signaling reversal), and footprint absorption patterns creates an A+ institutional accumulation setup. Entry at 0.66080 with stop at 0.65410 targeting 0.67045 provides exceptional 4.99:1 risk/reward with clear invalidation levels. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS ✅ Confidence: High This setup represents a textbook case of market participants getting trapped at extremes. Bears have pushed too far into a proven demand zone, COT data shows record short covering beginning, and technical indicators are screaming oversold with multiple divergences. The risk/reward of 4.99:1 with clear invalidation makes this a must-take opportunity. When institutions flip from record shorts to covering, the momentum shift can be violent. Take the trade with confidence.
CME:6A1!Long
by jacesabr_real
1
AUD: Revisit Key Supply Zone, Potential Short Setup.The AUD Futures 6A1! has revisited a key supply zone established earlier this month, presenting a potential opportunity for another short trade setup. According to the latest COT report, non-commercial traders have increased their short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, it's crucial to keep an eye on the DXY, as recent price movements over the past two days suggest a possible shift in its trend. Given that August often brings uncertainty and lack of clear direction, this environment requires careful monitoring. Consider this analysis as one of several factors in your trading decision-making process. ✅ Please share your thoughts about 6A1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6A1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
a return to dominant sellers origin presents a =BUYers world1->3 : number 3 closes below ( alibet slightly) number 1 , this makes number 2 a solid major high, as it has proven itself to have more selling power then the players from number 1 3->4 : we return to number 2 and assess the strength of the sellers from number 2 , versus buyers from number 3 * what do I think will happen ? * we have a bearish divergence on mfi , rsi and accum/dist * we have overbought on rsi and mfi * on a higher timeframe price has stopped going at an upward or sideways angle and begun trending to a downturn angle which hints that market control might be shifting
CME:6A1!Short
by jacesabr_real
percise double bottom alongside mfi+rsi oversold points upside1 & 2 . the percision of the double bottom makes me think a return to #3 makes sense , perhaps there are alot of buy orders that sellers are not able to fill, and therefore theygot exhausted there. 2. we saw at #2 that increasing volitility still was not able to lower it by even a tick.... 3. it could be a fake pullback... but rather than being paranoid i'll just go with basic common sense and say probably we going up 4. we have a 71% follow through rate for this series of chaos theory zones for our lookback period, so I like those odds. 5. i'm going to wait for it to enter the zone above , as per theory it needs to complete the follow through first to zoen below...
CME:6A1!Long
by jacesabr_real
Aussie Shorts Looks Promising This is a pullback trend trade anticipating trend continuation. Entry is based on LVN (low volume node) for entry. Also looking on the footprint chart there is a high volume node with -ve delta that was traded at 0.64715. If the sellers return to defend that price then this pullback should give some strong rejection once we pierce the entry zone and send bulls packing. TP1 - First swing low TP2 - Value area low of the range, which also is in confluence with the ExoFade peak on the 1HR timeframe. ExoFade peaks always gets taken out in a strong trend, that's why i love using them as price targets for exits. ExoFade is free on Tradingview for those curious about it. Just search for it.
CME:6A1!Short
by ExoProtocol
1
Australian dollar rose 0.8% but there is a "Wall" of naked callsAustralian dollar is up 0.8% in 24h — and almost eyeing the 0.66–0.665 zone . That’s exactly where we’ve been seeing a systematic build-up of naked calls on the futures. More “bricks” added to the wall yesterday. Early, looking at the CME data , there’s been a meaningful inflow in deep-out-of-the-money call options at the 0.665 strike . And this has been happening for several days for now We can’t say it’s one single player — CME reports don’t show that. But the pattern is too consistent to ignore. 🧠 Why it matters: As I’ve said before — these long call stacks can easily turn into zero-cost put spreads by selling futures at those levels. 🎯 Bottom line: Seems the market isn’t betting on a rally in long term. It’s preparing to defend the range . Strategy: open shorts at "build-up" resistance zone
CME:6AU2025Short
by ClashChartsTeam
Mid-Session Market InsightsMid-Session Market Insights In today's session, I'm closely monitoring eight different futures markets: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, Gold, Crude Oil, Euro Dollar, Yen Dollar, and Aussie Dollar. S&P 500: We're seeing a rotational pattern within the prior day's value area and the CVA. I'm eyeing long opportunities from the prior value area low up to the high. NASDAQ 100: The market is a bit choppy around the PVA and CVA highs, with a slight upward intraday trend. I'm staying cautious here. Russell 2000: Also choppy, but we've got acceptance within the CVA. I'm looking for long opportunities from the CVA low, which aligns with the prior day's low. Euro Dollar: I'm currently short from the CVA high, with the first target at the prior day's low. We've broken below the prior value area, so I'll trail this trade and see how it develops. Yen Dollar: It’s been a bit of a mixed bag. I took a short below the CVA and prior day's low, got stopped out, but it was still a decent setup. Aussie Dollar: I took some long positions that weren't the best setups, as it was quite choppy near the CVA high and prior day's low. Lesson learned for next time. Crude Oil: I took a short from the CVA and PVA highs, hit my target at the low of those areas, and we’re currently hovering around that level.
CME:6A1!
by JBradleyTrades
2
Quiet Before the Move — What AUD Options Are Telling UsThe AUD is stuck inside its recent range — trading has gone sideways, and trying to predict a breakout direction ahead of key moves would be premature (for more on the “Suffering Trader” concept, click here ). Price is consolidating just below a cluster of previously opened retail longs. This "failure to achieve" undermines the case of shorting this level right now. So for the time being, I’ll stay in observation mode and watch which side ends up suffering the most. Now, looking at the CME data , there’s been a meaningful inflow in deep-out-of-the-money call options at the 0.665 strike . That’s interesting. Also worth noting: just above, at the 0.67 strike , we saw a similar inflow a couple of days ago — and that portfolio remains static. No repositioning or outflows so far. That silence could mean something. Or nothing — yet. We’re watching closely.
CME:6A1!Long
by ClashChartsTeam
(6A1!) – Bullish Continuation SetupDescription: 6A1! (AUD/USD Futures) is currently coiling inside a symmetrical triangle structure, developing a textbook compression pattern after reclaiming a key low-volume demand zone. The price action shows signs of bullish continuation, supported by structural higher lows and the recent mitigation of a local Fair Value Gap (FVG). Market Structure & Context: After a sharp drop into premium demand, price formed a structural bottom near 0.6500 and began carving out higher lows. Price is now consolidating beneath a descending trend line, forming a symmetrical triangle, typically a neutral pattern but here it follows a strong impulsive move from demand, giving it bullish continuation potential. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed on the most recent impulsive candle and is now being actively tested if reclaimed and held, it could act as a launchpad for upside continuation. Key Technical Levels: Entry Zone: 0.65320 (Break and retest of triangle support + micro demand) Fair Value Gap: 0.65380–0.65440 (needs a clean close above) TP1: 0.65480 (Previous structural resistance) TP2: 0.65670 (Full premium supply mitigation zone) Invalidation: Below 0.65200 (would break triangle and invalidate bullish thesis) Quantitative Confluence: Volume tapering off within the wedge = compression Efficient rejection of thin liquidity zone suggests institutional accumulation Symmetrical triangle resolution statistics historically favoUr continuation of prior move (bullish impulse precedes consolidation) Risk Considerations: FVG rejection could trap breakout traders wait for clear close above + retest CPI/News events during Asia or London may cause fake out wicks — avoid premature entries Final Thoughts: This setup offers a high-probability breakout scenario if price can hold above 0.65320 and reclaim the FVG zone. A clean breakout of the triangle and fair value gap would open the path to premium inefficiency fill around 0.65670. However, a breakdown below 0.65200 flips the script bearish and could target the lower demand block around 0.65000.
CME:6A1!Long
by stakkd
2
Stuck in a Squeeze, Fade the TopAs the Australian Dollar, a currency traditionally correlated with risk, has been trading in a range since mid-April, fading rallies near the top of that range appears to offer the best odds in the current environment. Here’s the breakdown. Fundamental Analysis The Australian Dollar continues to move without clear direction as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pursues a clearly dovish path. The RBA’s most recent 25bp rate cut, bringing the official cash rate down to 3.85%, was justified by the central bank’s confidence that inflation is returning to target, coupled with lingering global uncertainties. According to the RBA Rate Tracker, markets are now assigning a 70% probability to yet another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting, an outlook that continues to weigh heavily on AUD yields and the currency’s appeal. On the other side of the Pacific, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders do not expect any policy easing from the Federal Reserve before late summer at the earliest. This means the US-Australia interest rate differential is likely to increase, making it even more expensive to hold AUD against the greenback. Compounding the challenges for the Aussie is the ongoing economic slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. With Chinese demand for commodities muted, there is little external support for the AUD. Technical Analysis Technically, after a sharp rebound in early April, the Aussie has remained stuck in a frustratingly tight range, unable to regain any significant upward momentum. Since its highs at the end of September, the currency is still down almost 7%. Price action has been confined to a broad consolidation zone between 0.6350 and 0.65 USD for over a month, with sellers consistently capping rallies at the upper end. The volume profile analysis reveals a heavy concentration of traded volume in the 0.6440–0.6465 band, reinforcing this area as a significant battle zone where sellers are likely to defend their ground. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above 0.6520 would be needed, something that appears unlikely in the current macro context. Sentiment Analysis From a positioning perspective, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that large speculators continue to hold net short positions in the Aussie, signaling ongoing professional bearish bias. Retail sentiment paints a similarly contrarian picture: broker data from FX/CFD platforms indicates a slim majority of retail traders remain long AUD/USD, with some brokers showing more than 70% long positions. This crowded long condition means there is still fuel for further downside, especially if key support levels give way. Notably, retail stop losses are clustered between 0.6400 and 0.6350, and these could act as accelerants if triggered by a downside break. In addition, risk sentiment remains fragile. While the VIX has eased somewhat, it struggles to remain sustainably below 20, a sign that investor nerves are still on edge and defensive flows are likely to persist. Listed Options Analysis The options market continues to reinforce the idea that rallies will struggle to gain traction. Open interest on call options remains heavily concentrated above spot, particularly at the 0.6500, 0.6525, 0.6550, and 0.6600 strikes, creating a robust technical ceiling. This makes it difficult for the Aussie to stage any sharp or lasting rallies. In contrast, open interest on put options is moderate and scattered, with the largest concentrations around 0.6400 and 0.6450, but there is no significant put wall below spot. The put/call open interest ratio is close to parity, indicating a relatively balanced positioning between calls and puts, with no strong directional bias from the options market. Implied volatility for the front month remains elevated around 9.8–10.1%, and the risk reversal remains slightly negative, suggesting a modest preference for downside protection, but markets are not in panic mode. The heavy concentration of call OI above spot still introduces some gamma risk: if the market rallies into the 0.6500–0.6550 zone, a short squeeze could briefly occur, but such moves are likely to encounter renewed selling pressure and fade quickly. Trade Idea With the RBA set to remain dovish, China’s demand subdued, and global risk aversion remaining elevated, the Aussie remains a tactical short on rallies. The macro, technical, and sentiment picture all favor a bearish stance. Entry: Short Australian Dollar (6AM5) on rallies to 0.6440–0.6465 Stop: 0.6520 (just above high-volume node and call OI cluster) Target: 0.6350 (support, stop loss cluster below 0.64) The trade provides a risk/reward ratio close to 2:1, thanks to a tight stop above resistance and a realistic profit target near support. However, the outlook could change if the Fed pivots more dovishly than expected after the recent Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The FX landscape could shift rapidly and trigger a covering rally in AUD/USD. For now, though, the odds favor playing from the short side. We’ll monitor stops closely and be ready to adapt if the macro winds start to shift. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6A1!Short
by satelysfx
M6A1!.. Updated.. After taking a shot yesterday I pulled the trigger too early.. didnt wait for conformations.. still waiting but very close to the top here. looking for either a candle close out of the trendline or for a clering of the wicks at the top. It hit the wicks already not fully cleared but maybe good enough. Again easy SL above the wicks and ride it down to the FVG thats also the golden pocket fib. Using 2 contracts and will take profit at the 0.5 fib and let 1 run to target .. hopfully
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by Lunchable69
2
M6A! short IDEAThis one seems pretty simple.. obviously with the world right now nothing is simple but the idea. So on the 1 Hr we broke Trend retested and back down. also there is a big fair value gap that perfectly lines up with the golden pocket fib that also lines up with the top of the candles from the bottom. Easy SL above the wicks .. you could go higher above the wicks on the left but going above these local wicks would invalidate the trade regardless. 1/8 reward. Well see
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by Lunchable69
Australian Dollar Futures: Key Levels and Bullish PotentialToday, we will analyze the Australian Dollar Futures. On the weekly chart, we may already be witnessing the end of the corrective bearish movement, as we have seen a break of the previous lows at 0.6184. Technically, we have also closed above the EMA5 and EMA10, which suggests potential bullish momentum. However, I believe it's still premature to call a long-term bottom just yet. What I would like to see next is a clear and distinct five-wave structure on the daily chart. This would indicate that the price could potentially close the week above the EMA50, currently at 0.6476. If this scenario plays out, I anticipate that the Australian Dollar could start a strong upward rally against the U.S. Dollar, aiming for a target at least around 0.8006.
CME:6A1!
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
1
Australian dollar is on the riseLooks like we have technical sounding off here! Price action has started the higher move. We have an inverted head and shoulders which price action has broken through already and heading higher! Price action is bouncing from a support level, it couldn't break it down, so it is heading higher from it! We have confirmation of higher prices! Trendline break on the lower time frames! Looks like everything is being confirmed for higher prices!!!
CME:6AH2025Long
by stockmarketdaytrader