Trade ideas
EURCAD 1H longEURCAD 1 H made a beatiful sharp drop, now stalling arround some good support levels.
When such a drop happens with no pullback formed yet I'm happy to buy the way down.
Because the pullback has to come soon buyers step in at the support levels.
My plan is simple I open a manual grid at the support levels I draw and aim for a 2R profit
Current grid 3 levels
1 market order
2 buy limits
Tp 2R
extra confirmation RSI is oversold
EUR/CAD: Shorting the Climactic Rally Near 1.6000The strong rally in EUR/CAD has pushed the pair into extreme territory, approaching a major psychological and structural resistance zone. While momentum has been strong, this looks like a potential climactic or "blow-off" top, offering a highly favorable risk/reward opportunity to short the pair in alignment with the weak underlying Euro fundamentals.
The Fundamental Why ๐ฐ
The core thesis remains bearish for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a distinctly dovish tone, signaling a willingness to ease policy further to support a slowing Eurozone economy. This fundamental headwind suggests that extreme rallies in Euro pairs are often exhaustive and present prime shorting opportunities.
The Technical Picture ๐
Major Supply Zone: The price is entering a critical multi-month supply zone between 1.5950 and the key psychological level of 1.6000. This is a major ceiling where significant selling pressure is anticipated.
Fibonacci Extension: This area aligns with a key Fibonacci extension level (1.272) from the last major impulse wave, a common zone where trending moves become exhausted and reversals begin.
Pronounced RSI Divergence: A clear bearish divergence is forming on the daily chart. As price makes this final push to a new high, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making a significantly lower high, signaling a deep exhaustion of buying momentum.
The Counter-Trade Rationale ๐ง
This is a high-level fade. We are positioning for a reversal at a major, technically significant ceiling. The extreme price extension, combined with clear momentum divergence, indicates that the risk of buying at these highs is substantial. By shorting here, we are betting that the powerful technical resistance and weak fundamentals will trigger a significant correction.
The Setup โ
๐ Pair: EUR/CAD
๐ Direction: Short
โ๏ธ Stop Loss: 1.63230
๐ฏ Entry: 1.59490
โ
Take Profit: 1.52008
โ๏ธ Risk/Reward: โ 2:1
EURCAD is BearishPrice was in a strong uptrend, however now it seems that bulls are exhausted, the notion is further validated by a double top reversal pattern with bearish divergence. If previous higher low is broken with good volume, then we can expect a bearish reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
EUR/CAD Tests Resistance โ Bullish Breakout in Sight?EUR/CAD appears to be showing bullish momentum and is likely heading toward the 1.6110 level. Currently, the pair is testing a key resistance zone. If the price manages to break above this resistance with strong volume or confirmation, we could see further upside continuation toward the next target at 1.6110. Traders should watch for a clear breakout and possible retest of the broken level turning into support, which could provide a good entry point for long positions.
EURCAD LONG SETUP H4: 28 JULY - 1 AUGUST 2025โ
EUR/CAD Trade Plan (4H Timeframe)
๐ Bias: Bullish
๐ง Why Buy EUR/CAD?
Reason Details
๐ COT Data
Institutions are 66.9% long EUR and 80.19% short CAD
๐ฅ Retail Sentiment
87% of retail traders are short (contrarian signal = bullish)
๐ Technical Setup
Breakout + retest of descending trendline and resistance = bullish continuation setup
๐ Technical Analysis Summary
โ
Trend & Price Action
The pair broke out of a descending trendline, indicating a shift from a short-term downtrend to a potential uptrend.
๐ Key Levels
1. Resistance / Take Profit (TP) Target Zone:
Around 1.61500 โ 1.62000
Marked in red as the TP TARGET, this is a supply zone.
The market may face selling pressure at this point.
2. Current Price Levels:
Price is trading around 1.6088, slightly below the local resistance at 1.6108.
3. Support / Buy Zone:
Between 1.60701 โ 1.60884
This zone has previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with the breakout retest.
4. Lower Support Levels:
1.59218 and 1.58883 are marked as potential deeper support if the breakout fails.
๐ Indicators and Patterns
Trendline Breakout: The descending black trendline has been broken, suggesting bullish momentum.
Pivot Levels (R1, R2, S1, etc.) are overlaid, providing additional confirmation of key support/resistance zones.
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๐ Trading Plan (as per the chart)
Bullish Bias: The breakout and retest imply a long entry from the BUY ZONE (1.607 โ 1.6088).
TP Target: Around 1.615 โ 1.620
Invalidation Level: A break below 1.6070, or especially below 1.5921, may invalidate the setup and turn bias bearish.
๐ COT Data Analysis
EUR (Euro):
Long Positions: 66.9%
Short Positions: 33.1%
ฮ Weekly: -1.11% (net longs reduced slightly)
๐ Interpretation:
Institutions are still heavily long on the Euro, showing confidence in its strength.
However, there's a slight weekly decrease, possibly a bit of profit-taking or caution ahead of upcoming data.
---
CAD (Canadian Dollar):
Long Positions: 19.81%
Short Positions: 80.19%
ฮ Weekly: +1.22% (shorts increased further)
๐ Interpretation:
Institutions are extremely bearish on the Canadian Dollar.
The increase in short positions shows growing conviction that CAD will weaken.
๐งฎ Institutional Bias:
Bullish on EUR/CAD: Institutions are net long EUR and net short CAD, meaning they expect EUR/CAD to rise.
---
๐ฅ Retail Sentiment (EUR/CAD):
Long: 13%
Short: 87%
๐ Interpretation:
Retail traders are massively short on EUR/CAD.
This is a contrarian signal: retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market.
Smart money likely sees upside if retail is heavily short.
๐ Conclusion
All signals โ COT, retail sentiment, and technical structure โ point toward a bullish EUR/CAD outlook.
Institutions are buying EUR and shorting CAD, while retail traders are mostly short, potentially fueling a short squeeze if price rallies. Technically, the breakout and retest also support a bullish trade idea.
EURCAD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
EURCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.6089 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 1.6104
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.6061
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURCAD Will Go Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURCAD.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 1.608.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 1.607 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR_CAD LOCAL SHORT|
โ
EUR_CAD is going up to retest
A horizontal resistance of 1.6110
Which makes me locally bearish biased
And I think that we will see a pullback
And a move down from the level
Towards the target below at 1.6077
SHORT๐ฅ
โ
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โจโจ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR-CAD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CAD is trading in a
Strong uptrend so we are
Bullish biased long-term
However a strong horizontal
Resistance is ahead at 1.6110
And the pair is overbought
So after the retest of the
Resistance we will be
Expecting a bearish correction
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.






















