CMG - Chipotle punishment ongoingChipotle still heavily subject to E.Coli cases. Many comments on various sites indicate that restaurants are significantly less frequented. Some are even empty with 4 people instead of a full room... Situation should not be clearer until earning report at the beginning of February, most analysts expect a sharp results drop. Expect the stock crash to continue in the next few weeks until intermediate levels are hit.
Level 400 was reached in second half of 2013 where the stock consolidated during a few weeks before rising up, this could form the first support. Pivot (~495) was broken in a straight free fall.
C9F trade ideas
Don't touch CMG until it tests 472Sentiment is awful, there's no earnings info for another month, and the chart looks disastrous. Appears like a perfect set-up for a contrarian trade. We're watching Jun 600 calls, but we're not touching them until the stock tests the 470-472 level. With IV at a new 52 week high today, the calls are just too expensive and there's still room for another ~$20 lower in the charts.
Bullish One White Soldier Usually this bullish pattern appears in downtrend of which the price clearly has been last few weeks. However, this may finally give bulls the chance they needed to believe the worst is behind but don't get trapped in a complete smugness here which could be a short covering rally. If markets remain uptick and close the year strong so will this stock recovery towards $614 area but down the road the chance we will see below $500 remains very strong. Our long position has given us 7.16% gain in a few sessions and good to take profit right at and around $580 or monitor closely. Real-time alerts go www.2waytrading.com
$CMG Do or die momentSince last earnings it hasn't been able to overcome the 9 and 20 day moving averages and has been shot down at the trendline every time. Moving averages are flattening a bit and with a couple more days of low volume consolidation can get it over the hump. $590-$600 would be the next logical target area above. If it loses steam and falls below $550 most likely revisits the lows.
$CMG: Busted Burrito$CMG broke below a long term trend line back in April and it has returned back to the trend which now acts resistance. A bearish head and shoulders pattern could also be forming. $CMG reports after the close today. Same stores growth has been decelerating and food prices were higher during the quarter. I see $CMG falling after earnings to the nearest support line at $600.
Disclosure: Long put spread.
REPUBLISHING CMG SHORT SALE REC FROM 9/19/2014 @666Chipotle Mexican Grill -CMG - Daily
"With Qdoba (JACK) breaking out, and CMG rolled over and under 28+ days of supply at 675-680.
If you can risk a rally to 682, just over a 2% rally, then I see reasonable chances for a drop to $625 or the middle of the gap from the July jump.
Tim
11:40AM EST 9/19/2014 Friday"
PS - It's always interesting to see when the stock chart gives a clue as to what the news is going to be. When you get this kind of technical setup ahead of news, it may really mean that top-notch researchers are right on top of traffic at CMG locations or that the information about each store revenue is getting leaked to an analyst or hedge fund and the word gets around the street. Perhaps the weakness in CMG was also a delayed reaction to the drop in the Russell 2000 Index this year as the strong momentum name stocks have been sold off down to more acceptable position sizes. To rephrase - CMG may have been suffering from money management strategies where portfolio managers were cutting down their positions in CMG since it was doing so well relative to the market. Good stocks can suffer this way as managers are forced to sell simply because the position size is now too large a percentage of their portfolio. Because of money management rules, good stocks can be sold off, which can make them look technically like shorts, but it doesn't always last long. There are plenty of reports out on the earnings, which you can dissect. All the best, Tim
CMG Cup&Handle pattern, potential gap coveringChipotle Mexican Grill formed bearish pattern called Cup&Handle with lower high (reversal candle) on 6th of October. Important level of support was at $649 and was broken yesterday with conviction. Combine it with $SPX break down of 200 EMA first time since long time and that is how you get in on the right side.
Risk Management: ENTRY was at $649 break. After 3 outside down days it feels a bit oversold. Maybe, wait for a bounce to fill with better price. STOP above $660 makes sence if sellers want to keep pressure and momentum. Then we have $682 reversal point. TARGET: as there is no visible support below previous support I will put my target at $609 which was resistance before gap up on earnings.
CMG short from a failed expansionCMG has been in a sideways channel for the last week. Looking for a failed breakout or expansion at the upper range because of the general market decline. Entered the trade on the break of the the inside bar (667.75) using a put option. Using the 10 EMA to stay in the trade with targets at fib levels .382 and .618 with a runner to 646.