2020 Bloopers CCL, MRO, NCLH, OXY, SABR, COTY & HTZ2020 Bloopers CCL, MRO, NCLH, OXY, SABR, COTY & HTZ
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Trade ideas
High Reward - Buy & Hold Good day traders, Carnival was one of the worst performing stocks in 2020 obviously because of the pandemic and its implications on their business. The price action recently shows signs of strength with immediate resistance around $25. There are two ways to trade Carnival; 1st way is to buy after clear breakout of the resistance at $25 and closing above it on the daily timeframe, or alternatively buy current market price or bit lower and hold for the breakout which will most likely happen sooner than later. I have outlined the buying zone and targets in the chart for ease of reference.
I expect this company along with similar nature businesses to outperform technology stocks in 2021 as the world open up.
If you have any questions, please feel free to comment and hit like if you like this idea.
Good luck!
Cup and HandleThat last number should read 35.5
Intra-year cup and handle pattern..keeping mind this stock has fallen a long way so there will be a lot of resistance overhead. Yearly high is 51.94.
Mid cup is 18.70. Folks usually place a stop somewhere below the HL or MC.
When a stock has fallen this far, it can be a downright battle to get back up to former levels. There are still folks possible "stuck" overhead and holding this at much higher levels who are just waiting to unload this, which may affect rallies upward for a while to come. It is not easy to get off the bottom sometimes..)o:
This is why some folks only buy over all resistance at the top. I have thought about this, and eventually everything comes down, or pulls back. So then resistance is created. Finding the top can be just as hard as finding the bottom..lol. All we can do is make an educated guess.
A chart is just an xray of supply and demand.
Not a recommendation
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, LEN, MU, CCL EARNINGS; XOP/XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT-RELATED VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS (IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT):
Here are the options-liquid underlyings announcing next week that I've culled down to 30-day >50% as candidates for volatility contraction plays:
LEN (21/49/11.6%),* announcing Wednesday after market close
MU (24/52/12.2%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified)
FDX (29/53/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close
CCL (27/91/21.1%), announcing Friday (no time specified)
Pictured here is a January 15th 17.5/27.5 short strangle in CCL which announces Friday, paying 1.36 as of Friday close with delta/theta of -4.86/4.84 with break evens wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, and between the 1 and 2 x on the put. Although no time is currently specified, it is likely to announce before market open (because who, like, announces after Friday close?), so would look to put on a play in the waning hours of Thursday's session if you want to take advantage of Friday's post-announcement volatility contraction.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK:
XOP (21/60/16.3%)**
GDXJ (15/44/12.9%)
XLE (30/45/12.5%)
KRE 924/41/11.1%)
SLV (25/40/11.2%)
GDX (16/38/10.7%)
EWZ (15/39/10.6%)
XBI (24/38/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
IWM (25/30/7.8%)
QQQ (23/30/7.6%)
DIA (16/23/6.0%)
SPY (16/23/5.6%)
EFA (20/24/5.1%)
TREASURY/BOND FUNDS:
Adding a little bond/treasury section to here since I occasionally park what would otherwise be idle cash in short puts (See Post Below).
TLT (11/15/3.99%) (1.609% yield)
HYG (11/11/2.41%) (4.917% yield)
EMB (5/9/--)*** (4.024% yield)
AGG (29/8/--)*** (2.252% yield)
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the January 15th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
** -- Here, I'm using the short straddle price nearest 45 days until expiry to calculate the "bang for your buck" percentage, which would be the January 29th weekly.
*** -- EMB and AGG don't have weeklies nearest 45 days.
CCL - a little insight?So im gonna keep these short i suppose, so there are three trend lines that the price action of CCL have followed strongly as you can see on my previous ideas.
We have the upper range called the STRONK resistance, which is so close to being broken the immediate support which was working for a bit, until it turned into resistance
and then we have the lower support...
So what does this tell us.... well nothing of course..jk
It gives you an idea of where the price action could potentially so, similarly to using moving averages.
i have nothing against moving averages, i like to use trendlines until they dont work....
I hope you enjoyed the TA....
CCL Watch for 21/22 line of resistance, soon support. The chart shows obviously if we have patience, CCL is uptrend heading to 25 and 29. And the big volume is there. The question is when?
But it has to overcome 22 line of resistance first, and if nothing goes wrong, with the world or the management, inshala it goes up and no sells because it is a risky business right now...
So be patient. It could be next month or next week.