AER | Bull Flag Breakout With Relative Strength as SPY Fades🚀 AER — Bull Flag Breakout | Daily Trade Idea (Nov 5 2025)
Ticker: NYSE:AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.)
Sector: Aircraft Leasing / Aerospace Finance
📊 Technical Setup
Pattern: Bull flag + intraday flat-base handle breakout
Structure: Held earnings-gap gains → formed 4 days tight → let the 5 EMA (≈ 130.9) catch up
Trigger: Break and close above 132 on rising volume (~1.56 M)
Relative Strength: Stayed firm while SPY pulled back — leadership behavior
Stop: 129.08 (below handle / 5 EMA)
Targets: 141 – 147 (measured move / next volume-profile shelf)
R/R: ≈ 1 : 3 potential if 5 EMA continues as support
💹 Fundamental Context
Record Q3 2025 earnings + raised full-year guidance
$1.5 B asset sales → $332 M gain shows tight secondary market
CEO noted wide-body supply “extraordinarily acute” → supports lease rates
$2.9 B recovered from Russia/Ukraine assets = ongoing cash tailwind
Macro theme: strong travel demand + limited OEM output + gradual rate easing → favorable backdrop for lessors
⚙️ Trade Plan
Entry → Confirmed close > 132 with volume
Stop → 129.08 (handle / 5 EMA)
Targets → 141 (conservative) / 147 (extended)
Invalidation → Daily close < 129 on volume
⚠️ Watch For
Part of EPS boost was non-recurring (asset sales + recoveries)
Breakout at ATH → tight stop discipline essential
If OEM production ramps sooner than expected, lease-rate premium could fade
🧭 Summary
AER is showing textbook leadership with a clean flag breakout and macro tailwinds to match. Price structure remains tight, volume is supportive, and risk is clearly defined at 129. Holding above 132 keeps momentum toward the 141–147 zone intact.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only — not financial advice. Do your own research before making trading decisions.
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