NG1! OCT 20 UPDATECurrent Setup:
Price: $3.42 (+14% rally from $3.00)
Pattern: Gap & crack, rope-a-dope reversal
Weekly STRAT: Flipped 2up (bullish)
Oct 23 EIA Prediction: 72-76 BCF
vs Historical baseline: 93.8 BCF
Expected surprise: -18 to -22 BCF (bullish)
Market positioning:
Price front-running Thursday's report. Last 2 EIAs both came in at 80 BCF with different fundamentals. Accumulated lag likely shows up this week, making it even more bullish.
Catalysts ahead:
Weather turning colder (5 cities bullish)
Contract rollover to Dec approaching
Storage deficit accumulating
Key level: $3.46
Break above opens door to $3.60-3.80+
Risk: Profit-taking before Thursday report
Good hunting
