Community discussions

jimbo1968

5 hours ago

Update Oct 22nd,
EIA: rope a dope ?
NG1: Current $3.44:
Market already pricing in bullish (moved +16% from $3.00).

If 63-76 BCF EIA range hits thursday 23rd continuation likely. If misses high, sharp pullback.

Best case: 63 BCF → $3.75+
Base case: 72-76 BCF → $3.60-3.65
Worst case: 80 BCF → $3.15-3.20

the 63BCF projection incudes the correction from
the last 2 reporting periods of 80BCF rope a dope reporting,
weathers getting cooler even tho theres
mixed messages here.

good hunting

jimbo1968

2 days ago

OCT 20 UPDATE
Current Setup:

Price: $3.42 (+14% rally from $3.00)
Pattern: Gap & crack, rope-a-dope reversal
Weekly STRAT: Flipped 2up (bullish)

Oct 23 EIA Prediction: 72-76 BCF

vs Historical baseline: 93.8 BCF
Expected surprise: -18 to -22 BCF (bullish)

Market positioning:
Price front-running Thursday's report. Last 2 EIAs both came in at 80 BCF with different fundamentals. Accumulated lag likely shows up this week, making it even more bullish.
Catalysts ahead:

Weather turning colder (5 cities bullish)
Contract rollover to Dec approaching
Storage deficit accumulating

Key level: $3.46
Break above opens door to $3.60-3.80+
Risk: Profit-taking before Thursday report
Good hunting