CT1!. P-Modeling Pt 2. Cottons of Cajun: A Hyperinflation Story Welcome Hyperspace Travelers,
This is a 1-week time-series model of CT1! Cotton No 2. Futures Contracts.
The purpose of this model is to potentially pick up early warning signs of hyperinflation.
I think I found a juicy early warning sign.
I may of course be incorrect.
If we look at data starting in 1973 we can see a well defined coordinated harmonics string with one big event between 2010 and 2012.
There is a strong probability that a continuously rising cost of cotton is an early warning sign of hyperinflation.
IF.. we continued on the path we are on. THEN... we hit a Strike Target of $220.00. This was the 2010-2011 ATH.
Do we repeat the past?
I say yes. Maybe? I guess? Sure, why not.. Seems logical.
But what do I know?... I just draw irrelevant spirals and lines. Right? Zero Predictive Value. So why attempt or even try? Waste of time if you ask me.
But what if..
Global supply and transportation issues. On the cusp of the next industrial revolution.. finite resources.. extreme weather.. destruction of our planet.. cheap labor shortages.. biggest division of wealth ever... You know this.. Right?
I just look at the same data as everyone else.
Just.. with a different grasp of the future..
Sometimes, I really wonder if we are apart of a simulation.
Is this real life? Or is this a test?
Communicative Cyclic Filters: Rendered along harmonic string.
Are you a test?
Is this just a big test?
Things to think about I guess..
See you soon :).
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with me,
Glitch420
CT1! trade ideas
Cotton Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Cotton Commodity USASun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Reason why the 1 hour above below prior session stategy worksfirst of all I know that I would be trading natural gas or cotton due to COT Data on daily charts
in the past i entered above a 1 daily bar and placed the stop at the swing low (VERY HIGH RISK) or below the daily bar
with the 1 hour strategy you can either enter a swing trade (exit below 18 MA on daily chart) or as a daytrade with exit below a 2-3 bars trailing stop.
the stategy will always work in trending markets because they pulled back in the past to prior days low and then gone up again, or they traded above prior days high and then further
the key is a stop order not at the prior day high but at the 1 hour bar that was above prior day high or low and then a price that traded above that bar (this method filters out many false breakouts)
Cotton Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Value and Volume Approach to Life I have learnt about this concept in my sales days and I find it very useful in many parts of our lives as well.
In Sales, there are 2 main ways to do it (imo):
Value - Sell the high value ($) items . Eg. Product A is $10, Product B is $20 and Product C is $50
Selling 1 unit of Product C is equivalent to selling 5 units of Product A
Question is - Selling Product C may require a slightly different sets of skills and require a longer time to close it
Volume - Here, we are talking about the frequency of sales. So, you focus on as many units of Product A sales as possible to make up the total value you want , ie $50.
Applying this to investment -
Value - We can group IPOs , Cryptocurrencies and selective stocks that jump a few hundred percent returns a day! However, this is highly risky and the risk/reward ratio may be too high for some to stomach it. IPOs as we have seen are hit and miss kind of game as well. Not all are rosy and you end up holding a bag of losses which may take years to recover.
Volume - Here, you can increase the profitability of the game through your volume, ie. number of contracts or shares you hold for the investment. Many think that if they do not have huge capital NOW, then they will not partake in the game of investment. My take is simple, you can buy in staggered amounts at different times OF the same shares. For example, I love many China stocks like Alibaba, Tencents, Meituan, to name a few and have bought them at different price levels. I merely keep my position size (volume) the same.
Applying this to your career :
Now, most of us have a job and sometimes it takes a toll on our time and health that we have no energy to do other things, investment amongst one of them.
Value - you can term this as the outcome - is it gaining knowledge , experience , a stepping stone to the desired company/industry, good pay package, etc
Volume - Here , I merely measured it by the number of hours you put into it to generate the value.
Hypothetical case - you earn $5000 a month and you worked 40 hours per week so your hourly rate is 5000/40 which gives you $125/hour.
3-5 years from now, where would you want to see yourself ? 200/hour , 500/hour ?
When asked this question to some of my friends, they say job market is unpredictable and with COvid-19 , it makes it even more hazy. I agree to disagree.
By planning and committing to a financial goal, you need to work towards it. And that is having a plan. If you rely 100% on your active job for income, then seriously, you are also increasing your risks as well. Would your job be made redundant or would they downsize ,etc ?
Investing to me is one of the BEST way to reach the financial goal. Think of it as having multiple freelance jobs - one of which is researching the industry/companies and making decisions to ride on the trend. And even if you are a Noob, there are plenty of ETFs and low cost investment that offers you decent amount of returns without excessive risks on your part.
Volume in terms of hours is KEY. Because that is a finite resource. We all have 24 hours a day, whether you are Jeff Bezos or the janitor in a restaurant. Nobody can use money to buy an extra minute for the day! So, it is FAIR. What appears UNFAIR is how the rich make use of their time to gain even more value ($) for themselves. So 1% return on a 10m investment compared to 1% return on a 100 shares of Apple from 2 different investors would yield different returns (value terms).
Our lives are not only resided in our career, we still need time for our family, social lives, personal hobbies, community, spiritual, health, etc. We can find many articles of people who spent endless hours on their work only to endanger their health and others along the way. Worth it ? You think about it.
If you are in your 50-60s now, yes it is true that you can't turn back the clock to your 20's and start investing. But hopefully, your life experience would prepare you to be a more patient and rational investor instead of acting on impulses and acting irresponsibly with your money. There is always a trade off.
So, there you go, Value and Volume Approach to Life and I hope you use it wisely to benefit yourself and others as well.
LIVE CATTLE and COTTON shortCOT index is showing weakness on LIVE CATTLE, in the past this provided good entry spots for profitable short trades.
On cotton price action shows further selling.
somehow tradingview is not ideal for futures trading, on live cattle there is almost no gap on the may contract.
And there is no SCREENER that shows you that a futures instrument broke below prior days low
so all you can do is monitor the charts every day, or set a stop order to get you into the trade.
Relationship between USD QE and raw material surge price.If you ever wonder how does USD QE (nonstop printing USD currency) affects inflation, this is the direct evidence using Cotton raw material price and USD monetary base as a reference.
Basically, the inflation is equal to the amount being printed out.
Optimal Short Entry For Cotton FuturesRisk/Reward here is insane. Optimal long-term short entry. This is the third time cotton has been at this level in 50 years. Use good risk management unless an anomaly occurs like it did in the 2011 spike. Don't risk more than 1 to 2 percent of your total account size.
trend continuation to the downside for cotton. last week's massive drop in price resulted in a change in trend on the daily timeframe. using both trendline rejection and a breakout of the triangle pattern as confluence, I am setting a long-term take profit at the 95.50 region - weekly trendline & the next major support level
Cotton appears to have broken through resistanceA resistance in the price of cotton of roughly .95 cents has been in place since 2012 and was recently broken. In 2010 cotton ran all the way up to $2.00 and started breaking north this time of year. It appears that the running quantity of cotton ginned in various parts of Texas through September 15th is down significantly from the prior year. Much of the rest of country hasn't started ginning as of yet. This will be something to watch over the next couple of weeks.
www.ams.usda.gov
Not investment advice, just my observation.