Sugar heading for multi-year lowsIs easy to see that the $20 zone is key for sugar, the price broke below it in April and it has not been able to come back above
The price has dropped more than 36% since it peaked in November of 2023 and this week just made a new 52-week low
The next key level is at $17.50, the daily chart already gave a sell or short signal
A follow through below this level could lead to a good gain in the short side
Also, could lower sugar prices lead to higher oil prices?
Remember that oil prices tends to be inversely correlated with the price of sugar, primarily due to its impact on ethanol production and the competing use of sugarcane for fuel versus food.
SB1! trade ideas
Sugar (sb) macro BULLISHHHWe broke bullish market structure on higher time frame. Price is making higher highs and we are currently at the best risk rewards area. Previous low of $17.20 must remain untapped for bullish continuation. If we do break $17 then most than likely we’ll be expecting a retrace towards the $14 price range but for now it looks great.
From a lower timeframe:
Price is holding well so far but ideally $18.8 must hold.
If we lose this level then $18.4 should be the next area of interest.
As long as we DO NOT break below $18.30, bullish momentum should continue.
Sugar Futures Falling WedgeI think that the indicator I have developed is working really well in sugar futures. From this point of view and due to the fact that sugar futures have a wedge, I think that there is an initial upside potential of 7% and then if the wedge is broken, I think that sugar futures can go up to $23.
SB ShortSB has sell signal based on COT report. Also seasonal trend is down. Weekly trend changed from up to down trend. The daily trend is in a down trend. Currently we see correction. My plan is to use this correction to open a shot position. Usually I risk 2% per trade, but in a Drawdown to reduce the emotional pressure I reduce the risk to 1%.
SUGAR: Jan 30, 2024Returning to the current price action, I see an upward movement from the low of 20.01 to the current high of 24.59, unfolding in Three waves. The price action doesn't seem quite favorable; what I mean is that there appears to be one of the Fibonacci Multiple Relationships that is not clearly defined, and it doesn't follow the common Multiple ratios. However, in the Commodity market, as well as Metals, markets experience strong and rapid fluctuations.
Bottom line: Sugar may decline to a level lower before rising in wave 5. However, pay attention to the alternative wave count.
The big context suggests a Bear market, and the short-term outlook may rise higher, while the price remains above 22.50-22.98. A drop below this level indicates that the Bear market might be resuming.
SUGAR: Feb 7, 2024Analyst: Shane Hua (CEWA - Master Candidate),
Hi traders, today's forecast is on commodities. Well, commodities tend to experience rapid fluctuations, some of which bear similarities to Gold.
Previously, I forecasted that Sugar would decrease to a lower level, and it turned out to be accurate. If I remember correctly, my initial target was 22.98.
Now, I believe Sugar may have completed the fourth wave (blue), you know, the common retracement target for the fourth wave is 0.382. At least it seems to have a solid basis for completion, and I am expecting a rally to higher levels in the market. Yes, the low at 23.01 needs to hold firm; what I mean is that prices must consistently stay above it for my bullish view on Sugar to remain intact. Conversely, a drop below it indicates I was wrong, and then I will return to update my latest forecasts.
So, that's my forecast. Have a great time, goodbye my friends.
Sugar Futures Technical AnalysisSugar should find a temporary bottom around here as it comes into an upward trend line of support and runs into the 200-day EMA. If it were to bounce, there is some minor resistance at the $26.48 area. Otherwise, if that were to break, sugar would likely make a run to return to the highs. Now, if the 200-day EMA and the upward trend line were to break, there would be some minor support at $23.31, which most likely would lead to a small countertrend rally. Otherwise, the more significant support levels are down at $21.81 and $20.35.
Sugar: Knock Knock🚪The sugar price has now reached the upper border of the pink trend channel. It should now break through this line, as it should continue to rise significantly with the yellow wave b. We expect the high to be in the green target zone between USX 28.72 and USX 30.84, which will then allow for new declines.