Soybeans Futures and the Phase One China dealLooking at how the Soybean Futures have reacted very negatively since the signing of the Phase One China deal on the 15th of January, it doesn't seem that there is much expectation that this deal will drive any meaningful increase in purchases. It will be interesting to see how they react as we enter a traditionally bullish seasonal period at the end of the month.
SOJ.MIN1! trade ideas
Elliott Wave View: Soybean Impulsive Rally Favors UpsideSoybean (ZS_F) cycle from May 13, 2019 low shows an incomplete 5 swing sequence, favoring further upside to end 7 swing double zigzag structure. On the 4 hour chart below, wave (X) ended at 867.4. Wave (Y) higher is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A of (Y) remains in progress. The internal subdivision of wave A is unfolding as an impulsive structure. Up from 867.4, wave ((i)) ended at 903.4 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 888.2.
The instrument has resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 950.4 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 938.4. Expect wave ((v)) of A to end soon. Afterwards, Soybean should correct the cycle from December 3, 2019 low within wave B before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside as far as pivot at 867.4 low stays intact. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from May 13, 2019 low which comes at 1021 – 1057 area.
Soybean Short - Corrective wave confluenceLooking for a possible short on Soybeans down to an area of support and confluence of the channel downward channel. at 882. We are currently hitting year long ascending trendline bottom that we broke and have yet to retest, as well as the 38.2% fib entrancement level of the larger move. Price has seemed to lose momentum at this level. looking to price action for confirmation that a move to the downside is probable. This could break through that year long trendline and we could be looking for a move to test highs at 940, if not looking for TP at 2 levels, 882 and 855
Soybeans - Short | Bearish trendSoybeans has been getting pummeled the past month with aggressive selling. the past few days, soybeans has experienced a final breather and has been in a smaller corrective wave. Currently at the top of the channel after this wave, looking to see if the channel holds, otherwise looking for a breakout and retest of the channel to the long side. If price holds at top of channel and a confirms price will move back down, looking to 860 855 level as that is a strong support level.
High time to sell soybean This chart is beautiful as it presents a great selling opportunity.
Now the profit target (red dotted line) is also the 618 FIB level so if it reaches there
,expect some pullback as well. It could also retrace a little and continue to dive
southwards to meet the gap to be closed.
However, if the price action does reverse and pullback aggressively back into the bullish trend line, then this selling order is cancelled.
Be flexible, be like water.
Soybeans SHORT mean reversion to 865Nov Beans is back at the 38.2 Gann retrace from CTN High to Low, meeting resistance on the 2x1 Gann Lines (purple) from CTN all time High and 2nd CTN top. Move has been based on optimism from Chinese purchases of US Soybeans as a goodwill gesture to prep for October meetings. A move to the 1x1 Gann Line (dotted) is anticipated as we drift toward October seasonal lows before talks transpire. The 5yr 50 MA price channel via Spreadcharts shows Beans extended to the 5 year SD2 MA @9.00. Expecting a move toward the 1x1 lines (8.65) median line which is also the SD mean of the 5 yr MA of price given no new developments in Chinese US relations till October talks, and typical of mean reversion of price and seasonal trend.
Sold Vertial Call Spread Short Call 910 39d exp Long Call 920 39 day exp
Sold ZSX19 @ 8.99 Stop 913, TP 8.64
Gann fan scales
1) Michael Jenkins Initial Impulse 1x8 line aligned to high 2
2) 2x1 aligned to lowest low of new swings retracements (authors method)