OIL Long Setup (A Setup)Oil is trading within a range, expecting to hit a two week high level as indicated in chart. I give it an 80% chance of reaching target, that is why I'm going full risk on this one.
Crude Oil Futures
CRUDEOIL1! trade ideas
Bearish setup for Crude OilWe saw Oil accumulating and this week potentially preparing for the move for lower prices.
I want to see Oil open first on Sunday, but my Short position will be in when we reach the Previous Month POC.
Caution! We might see some Trump tweets regarding Oil so volatility might be high!
Always remember, Caution, Patience and Risk!
GL!
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Long CL1!📌 When is Crude Oil & Heating Oil in High Demand & How Does It Cycle Internationally?
Crude oil and heating oil (a refined distillate product) are two of the most widely traded energy commodities in the world. Their demand is shaped not only by seasonal factors like winter heating or summer travel but also by global economic activity, geopolitical shocks, and OPEC production quotas. Traders who understand these recurring patterns can rotate positions between crude oil futures, heating oil spreads, energy ETFs, and oil major stocks, capturing profits from seasonal demand surges and international supply cycles.
🔹 1. When is Crude Oil & Heating Oil Demand Highest?
(Bullish for Crude Oil Prices, Heating Oil Futures & Energy Stocks)
✅ Q4–Q1 (October – March) → Winter Heating Season
Heating oil demand peaks in the U.S. Northeast, Europe, and Northern Asia, where it is a primary source of winter fuel.
As temperatures drop, residential and commercial heating needs surge, straining inventories.
Cold snaps and “polar vortex” events can cause sudden price spikes as heating oil consumption overshoots refinery output.
Futures traders often buy HO (Heating Oil Futures) contracts in anticipation of winter demand.
📌 Example:
January 2014 → An extremely cold U.S. winter drove heating oil up 18% in six weeks.
February 2021 → Texas freeze caused heating fuel shortages and refinery outages, spiking distillate prices.
✅ Q2–Q3 (April – September) → Driving & Travel Season
During summer, gasoline consumption surges due to U.S. driving season and global air travel demand.
Refineries run at higher capacity to meet gasoline needs, which also increases crude oil intake.
Crude oil prices tend to rise seasonally in spring/summer as gasoline crack spreads widen.
Jet fuel consumption also peaks due to increased tourism, which lifts overall refined product demand.
📌 Example:
Summer 2008 → Gasoline and jet fuel demand pushed WTI crude to its all-time high of $147/barrel.
Summer 2022 → Reopening travel demand post-COVID sent crude over $120/barrel.
✅ Year-Round Demand Drivers
1️⃣ OPEC Production Decisions – Monthly meetings determine quotas. Any announced cut usually boosts crude prices.
2️⃣ Geopolitical Risk Premiums – Middle East tensions, sanctions on Russia or Iran, or shipping lane disruptions (Suez, Strait of Hormuz) can instantly spike crude/HO prices.
3️⃣ Refinery Maintenance – Refineries shut down twice a year (spring & autumn) for maintenance. This lowers crude demand temporarily but tightens refined product supply, often bullish for heating oil and gasoline.
4️⃣ Global Economic Cycles – A booming economy increases freight, shipping, and industrial demand, supporting both crude and distillates.
🔹 2. How Crude Oil & Heating Oil Cycle Internationally
(Month-to-Month Trading Strategy)
Unlike agricultural commodities like corn that follow harvest rotations, energy commodities follow consumption and refining rotations. Traders rotate focus between crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil depending on the month:
Month Seasonal Demand Driver Strategic Trading Focus
Jan–Feb Winter heating peak in U.S. & EU Long HO futures, long refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX)
Mar–Apr Refinery maintenance lowers crude intake Watch for crude dips, trade refiner volatility
May–Jun Gasoline build for driving season Buy XLE ETF, long COP, CVX, and integrated majors
Jul–Aug Peak travel & driving season Long crude ETFs (USO), bullish on airlines & refiners
Sep–Oct Hurricane season risks in Gulf Coast Long refining stocks (MPC, VLO), heating oil spreads
Nov–Dec Start of heating oil buildup & exports Long HO futures, long exploration & production stocks
📌 Example:
Sept 2017 → Hurricane Harvey crippled Gulf Coast refineries → Gasoline & heating oil jumped 20% while crude briefly fell from lack of demand.
🔹 3. Best Stocks & ETFs to Trade Crude & Heating Oil Cycles
🌎 U.S. Oil Majors (Crude-Sensitive)
ExxonMobil (XOM) – World’s largest oil company, stable dividends, benefits from higher crude.
Chevron (CVX) – Strong upstream focus, leveraged to crude price rises.
ConocoPhillips (COP) – Heavy shale exposure, reacts quickly to oil price changes.
📌 Best Time to Buy: Q2–Q3 (driving season, higher crude demand).
🌎 U.S. Refiners (Heating Oil & Gasoline-Sensitive)
Valero Energy (VLO) – Largest independent U.S. refiner, strong heating oil exposure.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – Big heating oil and gasoline player.
Phillips 66 (PSX) – Integrated refiner with strong Gulf Coast presence.
📌 Best Time to Buy: Q4–Q1 (heating oil demand) & Summer (gasoline margins).
🌎 International Oil & OPEC Plays
Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) – Global OPEC leader, tied to quota shifts.
Petrobras (PBR) – Major Latin American exporter, affected by Brazilian politics.
BP (BP) & Shell (SHEL) – Diversified international majors with refining & upstream assets.
📌 Best Time to Buy: Around OPEC meetings or geopolitical volatility.
🌎 Energy ETFs & Futures
USO – U.S. Oil Fund ETF (tracks crude futures).
XLE – Energy Select SPDR ETF (oil majors).
XOP – Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (independents).
HO Futures (NYMEX) – Direct exposure to heating oil prices.
📌 Best Time to Trade:
HO Futures → Winter (Q4–Q1).
USO/XLE → Summer (Q2–Q3).
📌 Conclusion: Best Crude & Heating Oil Seasonal Strategy
✅ Winter (Oct–Mar): Focus on Heating Oil Futures (HO), Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) → strong distillate demand.
✅ Summer (Apr–Sep): Focus on Crude Oil (USO, COP, CVX, XLE) → gasoline & travel demand.
✅ Geopolitical/OPEC Events: Year-round opportunities to rotate into majors (XOM, BP, SHEL) and crude futures on supply disruptions.
✅ Refinery Cycles: Play spring/autumn refinery maintenance by trading spreads between crude and heating oil/gasoline.
🔹Trading Strategies Beyond Seasonality
📈 Strategy #1: The Dollar-Oil Inverse Correlation
Oil is priced globally in USD → when the dollar weakens, crude usually rises, as it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.
Traders can exploit this by tracking both UUP (Dollar ETF) and USO (Oil ETF) together.
Rules:
If UUP ↑ > 0.25% AND USO ↑ > 0.25% from yesterday’s close → short USO at today’s close, exit next day. The vice-versa works as well, if they both fall at once.
If dollar falls and crude rises → usually long oil positions perform best.
📌 Note: USO doesn’t perfectly track oil due to roll costs and ETF structure, so results vary.
📈 Strategy #2: Friday Seasonality in Crude Oil
Crude oil has a well-documented tendency to rise on Fridays.
The edge is stronger if Thursday closes down (profit-taking + positioning for weekend risks).
Rules:
Buy on Thursday’s close if USO falls ≥ 25-day hl2 Keltner Channel, 0.75 ATR.
Exit on Friday close (or Friday open if a gap-up occurs).
📌 Best Performance: During SPY bull markets, when risk appetite is higher.
📈 Strategy #3: Heating Oil Seasonal Buy Window
Surprisingly, Heating Oil performs better before winter (Feb–Aug) rather than during.
Traders stock up ahead of the cold, creating an anticipatory rally.
Historical Edge:
Buying Heating Oil on Jan 11 and selling Aug 30 would have yielded +361% between 1999–2009 (EquityClock data).
Oil Futures looking to runAfter hitting a double bottom at the 61.50 level, oil appears to be headed in a up trend.
Crude oil futures probable price movementsCrude oil futures probable price movements. we can see an up movement in price above the levels
WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025
Current Price : $62.25
Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis
Executive Summary
WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup.
Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis
Institutional Positioning Intelligence
The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions:
Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50
Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation
Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range
Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone
Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period
Secondary Support Levels:
$60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support
$58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest
Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone
Resistance Structure Analysis:
$65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume
$68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution
$70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak
Price Structure Context
Historical Pattern Recognition:
The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal.
Critical Structure Points:
Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning
Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity
Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation
Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing
Execution Chart Technical Analysis
Current Technical Configuration
DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL:
Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25
Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50
Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange)
Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support
DMI/ADX Assessment:
ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement
+DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI
Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias
Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction
Stochastic Analysis:
Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal
Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum
Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Technical Levels:
Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line)
Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC)
Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary)
Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low)
Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach)
Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone)
Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
Required Conditions for Long Entry:
DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line
DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI
ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30
Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor
Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence
Entry Protocol:
Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover
Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement
Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals
Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation)
Profit Targets:
Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits
Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits
Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25%
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup
Short Entry Conditions:
DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line
Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor
DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI
ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias
Short Setup Parameters:
Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown
Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown)
Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones)
Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
Sideways Trading Framework:
Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone)
Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary)
Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary)
Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract)
Profit Target: Opposite range boundary
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Guidelines
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict)
Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.015 ÷ (Stop Distance × $10)
Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support)
Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach)
Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation)
Time-Based Risk Controls
Monitoring Requirements:
Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect
4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength
Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns
Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution
Market Context and External Factors
Fundamental Considerations
Supply/Demand Dynamics:
OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies
China demand recovery prospects
Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October)
Geopolitical Factors:
Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums
US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns
Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows
Seasonal Patterns
September-October Considerations:
End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand
Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions
Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive
Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness
Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels
Daily Monitoring Requirements
DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship
Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor
Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns
External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements
Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets
Critical Alert Levels
Bullish Alerts:
DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50
Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor
+DI reclaiming dominance over -DI
Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation
Bearish Alerts:
Break below $62.00 institutional floor
DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange)
Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50
ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning.
Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment.
Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect
Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention
Important Disclaimer
Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor.
Key Risk Considerations:
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis
Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly
Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly
Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework.
The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
return to resistance provides sell opportunity 1->4 : return to proven sellers
next ?
* 2nd deg. bear divergence rsi and mfi
*vwap 1st standard deviation
*vpoc
*inside bar and bearish bar (forming)
*stop order for sell
Broad look at CL Futures Just mapping out CL Futures on weekly chart
This market has been range bound for more than a year buyers at $60 and sellers at $80
Last week finished weak and could be the catalyst for another test of the support area
Be patient wait for your set up and trade within tight risk parameters.
potential return to trend after pullback 1->3 : creates a lower low , number 2 proven sellers
3->4 : return to sellers proving ground
next ?
* break of LRC would be a good entry for sell
* hidden bear rsi and mfi ( continuation )
*obv uptrend broken ( sellers stronger than buyers)
* stop sell below current bullish bar hoping to
enter at break of LRC invalidate at close above number 2
risky but plusable trade idea to upside ( very risky ) 1->3 : number 2 becomes proven
after number 3 closes above number 2
sellers
3->4 : return to number 2 buyers
what next ?
* obv shows a shift in market interest to
buyers
*longstanding (now 2nd degree ) bull
divergence on rsi and mfi
*poc showing large cluster of volume
supporting buys
Oil falls after rejection at the 50 SMAOil trades within a descending channel dating back to 2023. The price trades below its 200 SMA in a bearish trend. Oil failed to rise above the 50 SMA and the 65.00 round number, rebounding lower, with the RSI below 50 highlighting bearish pressure.
Should sellers extend the bearish move below 61.45, the August low, and 60.00 round number, this creates a lower low and could spur a deeper selloff towards 55.00.
FC
return to proven buyers presents trend continuation opportunity 1->3 : higher high , number 2 proven buyers
3->4 : reutrn to buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* push above vpoc
* hidden bullish divergence
* obv support line predicting buying interest
potential continuation of uptrend with return to proven buyers1->3 : creates number 2 as solid major low in local scope
3->4 : return to proven buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* continuation upward
* rsi mfi hidden bull
* low volume around number 2 and 4 is usually rejected
* vwap first standard deviation confluence
Oil has 2 consecutive months closing below June's pop in priceWill oil futures eventually retest 57.46 now that two months have been unable to press for June's price high?
Bullish on Oil week 01-07/09 2025Will wait to see price reach and react from the previous month POC. That should be the play off the week. Bullish setups only. I the week starts going higher we should expect for this to reverse in the middle of the month.
Crude Oil MCX Futures — Weekly Positional Roadmap (1-5 Sep-2025)MCX:CRUDEOIL1! For positional and swing traders in Crude Oil MCX Futures, weekly levels provide a clear directional blueprint for the week ahead.
Weekly Key Levels
Zero Line: 5654 — This is the pivotal level dividing bullish and bearish sentiment for the entire week. Any 1 hour candle closed before or above with a high or low break, is a bias hint for the week!
Positional Buy Setup: Remain buy-biased till 5627. Positions can be initiated above 5671 (Weekly Long Entry) and strengthened at 5663 (Add Long).
Upside Targets:
Weekly Take Profit Tgt 1: 5698
Weekly Take Profit Tgt 2: 5725
Long Exit: Closing Above 5647 — Consider booking positions near these levels if upward momentum stalls.
Weekly Bearish Plan
Short Setup: If Crude breaches and sustains below 5654, positional shorts can be considered with eyes on 5610 and 5583 for target levels.
Short Exit: Cover or reconsider shorts if price rebounds above 5678.
Tactical Guidance
Weekly/Positional Traders: Use these levels for larger swing moves; wait for clear breakouts confirmed by 1 Hour candle closes for timing entries and exits, on pull back, make positions.
Adapt position sizes and risk management to account for wider weekly swings compared to daily trades.
Approach the week with a clear plan—these levels serve as checkpoints for positional trading rather than intraday scalps. Stay patient and disciplined for potential bigger moves this week.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: 02-September-2025Week Ahead Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Analysis Period : August 26-30, 2025 Review | September 2-6, 2025 Outlook
Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min)
Current Price : $64.00 (August 30, 2025)
________________________________________
Strategic Outlook & Market Setup
Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Pullback First, Then Recovery
What to Expect : Market opens lower Tuesday ($63.00-63.50 range) due to bearish signal on short-term chart. This creates a buying opportunity if support holds.
Trading Plan:
Tuesday Opening : Expect gap down - don't panic, this was anticipated
Buy Zone : Look for entries between $62.00-63.50 (strong institutional support)
Confirmation Needed : Wait for short-term trend to flip bullish again before buying
Target : Still aiming for $66.50 but may take extra 3-5 days to get there
Secondary Scenario (25% Probability): Sideways Consolidation
What to Expect : Market trades in $63.50-64.50 range for several days while technical signals realign.
Trading Plan:
Strategy: Be patient - don't force trades in choppy conditions
Wait For: Clear breakout above $64.50 with volume
Risk: Could waste 1-2 weeks in sideways action
Low Probability Scenario (5% Probability): Immediate Continuation Up
What to Expect : Market gaps up above $64.25 and keeps rising.
Trading Plan:
Verify: Make sure both short-term and long-term signals turn bullish
Caution: Be skeptical without strong volume confirmation
Action: Can buy but use smaller position sizes until confirmed
________________________________________
Market Risk Factors & Monitoring
Critical Support Level : $62.00
Why Important: Massive institutional buying occurred here - if it breaks, the bullish case is dead
Action If Broken: Exit all long positions immediately, wait for new setup
Probability of Break: Low (15%) but must be respected
Key Events This Week :
Tuesday: ISM Services data (economic health indicator)
Wednesday: Weekly oil inventory report (could cause volatility)
Friday: Jobs report (affects overall market sentiment)
Warning Signs to Watch:
Technical: Short-term trend staying bearish for more than 3 days
Volume: Declining volume on any bounce attempts
Support: Any trading below $62.50 for extended periods
Time: No progress toward $66.50 target within 10 total trading days
Positive Signs to Look For :
Technical: Short-term trend flipping back to bullish (key confirmation)
Volume: Above-average volume on any recovery moves
Support: Strong buying interest at $62-63 zone
Momentum: Clean breakout above $64.50 with follow-through
________________________________________
Forward-Looking Adjustments
Modified Risk Management :
Position Size: Use 50% of normal position size until both timeframes align bullish
Stop Loss: Tighter stops at $62.75 (just below support zone)
Entry Patience: Don't chase - wait for pullback to support levels
Profit Taking: Be more aggressive taking profits at first target ($66.50)
Revised Entry Strategy:
Before Buying, Confirm ALL Three:
Price: Trading at or near $62-63 support zone
Technical: Short-term trend signal flips back to bullish
Volume: Above-average buying interest visible
Timeline Expectations :
Days 1-3: Expect pullback/consolidation phase
Days 4-5: Look for bullish confirmation signals
Days 6-10: Resume advance toward $66.50 target if signals align
Beyond Day 10: If no progress, reassess entire strategy
Success Metrics:
Minimum Goal: Protect capital during pullback phase
Primary Target: $66.50 within 2 weeks (revised from 1 week)
Risk Limit: Maximum 2% account loss if support fails
Time Limit: Exit strategy if no directional progress within 10 days total
Simplified Decision Framework :
Green Light to Buy: Price near $62-63 + Short-term trend bullish + Good volume Yellow Light (Wait): Mixed signals, choppy price action, low volume
Red Light (Exit): Price below $62, bearish trend continuing, time limit exceeded
________________________________________
Bottom Line : The bigger picture remains bullish, but short-term signals suggest a pullback first. Use any weakness to $62-63 as a buying opportunity, but only with proper confirmation. Be patient - the setup is still valid but timing may be delayed by a few days.
________________________________________
Document Classification : Trading Analysis
Next Update : September 6, 2025 (Weekly Review)
Risk Level : Moderate (controlled institutional setup)
This analysis represents continued validation of a systematic, institutional-grade trading methodology with demonstrated predictive accuracy and risk control capabilities. This is a view that represents possible scenarios but ultimate responsibility is with each individual trader.
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
CL1! 4H | Bullish Setup
Price has respected multiple bullish structures and key demand zones. Strong higher lows with clean breaks of internal structure.
If theris pullback before continuation to the upside then can add entries
Entry: 64.03 (re-entry)
SL: 62.55
TP: 67.21
R:R ≈ 2.5
Final target aligns with previous supply and imbalance fill. Monitoring reaction around 66.70 zone for partials
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) – Trade Setup & Key Levels
🛢️ Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) – Trade Setup & Key Levels 📊
Analyzing Light Crude Oil Futures based on recent market structure and risk management parameters.
📌 **Entry Price:** $61.15
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 **Exit Target:** +6.1% above entry → around $64.88
🔹 **Stop Loss:** -4.6% below entry → around $58.34
🔹 **Support Zone:** -7.3% below entry → around $56.66
🔹 **Resistance Zone:** +10.9% above entry → around $67.84
Crude Oil is consolidating in a medium-range channel. With the current entry, the risk-to-reward ratio favors a potential upside, while defined levels help manage downside risks.
**Bullish View:** Price can aim for $64.88 first, and potentially retest the $67.80 resistance zone.
**Bearish View:** If $58.34 fails to hold, we may see extended downside toward $56.66 support.
⚠️ **Note:** If price breaks below $58.34, expect further decline toward support. ⚠️
🔔 **Be sure to follow updated ideas for Crude Oil Futures!** 🔔
⏰ **Analysis Timeframe:** Daily & 4H perspective.
⚖️ **Always use a Stop Loss** for risk management! 🚨
💡 **This is just my market idea — follow your own strategy.**
✅ **Hit the 'Like' button** ✅ 🙏😊 & Share with fellow traders if you find it useful!
Crude Oil Short After Finding A Recurring BehaviorAfter I cleared the CL chart, I immediately saw a behavior that we can use for a setup right now.
You see that the highs got cracked, and then immediately price turns to the south. And since we are in a downtrend on Crude, we have a legit Short-Trade at hand.
With the modified Shiff-Fork you see how nice CL is reacting at the U-MLH, where it get's rejected. This level also coincides with the crack level.
I personally would love a pullback up to the crack-zone before shorting it. Maybe the trading Gods give us a gift on this Wednesday.
Talking about Wednesday: today we get the Crude Oil EIA numbers, which will probably move the markets.
However you plan is if you trade it, don't have FOMO. There are many more trades to come in your trading career.
Have a happy hump day §8-)
return to solid sellers inspires immediate =SELL market order
**1→3 Movement:** We've carved out a spicy lower low that absolutely demolished the buyers from that 2→3 upswing 💀. This makes the sellers from numero uno the absolute CHAD entity in this local structure 💪
**4→5 Action:** Sellers came back virtually unchecked (like they owned the place 😎) until they hit that overlapping resistance zone where both highs 1 and 3 are chilling together like old friends 🤝
### What's the Vibe? 🔮
* **Continuation Theory:** We're probably heading down faster than my portfolio in 2022 📉. Those previous upswings (2→3 and that tiny pump before high 1) were equally one-sided and still got absolutely rekt. No reason to think this time hits different 🎯
* **Elliott Wave Gang:** This could be that legendary 5th wave finale 🌊, setting us up for a classic 3-wave correction. (Counting that pre-number-1 uptrend as wave 1 because we're sophisticated like that 🧐)
* **Dow Theory Confirmation:** We're surfing a downtrend with a potential kiss goodbye at resistance 💋. Higher timeframes are aligned like planets in retrograde ✨
* **Divergence Party:** Hidden bearish divergence across RSI, MFI, and A/D indicators 📊 - the triple threat confirmation we love to see 🎪
### Chaos Theory Stats (Because We're Built Different) 🌪️
* **64% Probability:** If price closes below a zone, there's a 64% chance it'll hit the next zone down. That's better than a coinflip, and we'll take those odds all day 🎲
* **Breakeven Placement:** Strategically positioned because if price returns to the zone above after hitting BE, we've got a 75% chance of revisiting entry (and nobody likes giving back profits) 💸
* **Zone Selection:** Next orange zone below is the target because we're methodical like that 🎯
* **Data Backing:** These stats are from the last 2,500 bars - not some random hopium, actual backtested edge 📈
**Trade Invalid:** If price closes above that orange zone lurking below this text ⚠️
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*Not financial advice, just one trader's vibe check on the markets* 🚀💀
