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Crude Oil - Intraday Technical Analysis - 14th Oct., 2025 $MCX:CRUDEOIL Crude Oil is trading at 5,307, consolidating after a steep fall and holding just above the neutral zone (5,246). Price is compressing between intraday supply and demand. Bearish Scenario Short Entry (5,325): Shorts become actionable below 5,325, especially if the price fails to reclaim 5,354 (add long zone) and loses momentum. Downside Targets: 5,096 (Target 1): First mapped support for covering shorts. 5,003 (Target 2): Additional extension if selling accelerates. Stop Loss: Hold shorts only if price remains below 5,301 (long exit); cover if it bounces above 5,354. Bullish Scenario Long Entry (5,382): Fresh longs trigger above 5,382, with additional conviction if price sustains over 5,396 (short exit). Upside Targets: 5,489 (Target 1): Key resistance and logical profit booking area. Stop Loss: Use 5,354 or 5,325 for active risk control. Neutral/Range Logic Neutral Zone (5,246): If price continues to oscillate in this band, expect a choppy range until a directional breakout confirms the trend. Watch for decisive moves out of the compression zone to activate either bullish or bearish plans. If these levels help your trading, please boost, comment, and share. Follow for more daily key levels and actionable market logic! Reach out in the comments—no hassle, just honest learning and open sharing. Your engagement drives this effort for all active viewers!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by ChartPathik
Crude oil: Sell around 58.60, target 56.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil has been declining recently and has reached strong support near 55. A break of this level would open up further downside. Today's outlook for crude oil remains bearish. Continue selling on minor rebounds, focusing on selling opportunities around 58.90. The new contract also bearishly suggests no buying opportunities. This selling strategy has persisted for a long time. Fundamental Analysis: The Federal Reserve has once again implemented loose monetary policy, and with the added support of CPI, market uncertainty is high, prompting a surge in gold prices. Trading Recommendations: Crude oil: Sell around 58.60, target 56.00-55.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldenSpaceship
CRUDE OIL (WTI) BUY SETUPCrude oil has pulled back to a strong support zone, aligning perfectly with the bottom of its ascending structure. Price action is showing signs of buyers stepping in, which could lead to a natural continuation of the uptrend. 🛢 Additional bullish factors: 🟢 Price reacted strongly from support, indicating accumulation. 🟢 Supply-side tensions and global demand outlook continue to support higher prices. 🟢 Technical structure favors a push toward higher highs if support holds. 📈 TP Levels: TP1: 65.88 TP2: 66.65 TP3: 67.39 TP4: 68.13 SL below support 🚫
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by Charts_M7M
Light Crude Oil (CL) Weakness Expected to PersistThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for oil indicates that a decline from the September 26, 2025, high is unfolding as a five-wave impulse. Starting from that peak, wave ((i)) concluded at $60.40, as depicted on the 45-minute chart. Subsequently, wave ((ii)) rallied in a zigzag Elliott Wave pattern. From the low of wave ((i)), wave (a) reached $62.12, followed by a pullback in wave (b) to $60.72. The upward move in wave (c) peaked at $62.93, completing wave ((ii)) at a higher degree. Oil then continued its descent in wave ((iii)), structured as an impulsive sequence. From the wave ((ii)) high, wave (i) dropped to $61.78, and wave (ii) corrected to $62.87. Wave (iii) extended lower to $58.22, with a bounce in wave (iv) reaching $60.17. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $62.93 holds, any rally is expected to falter in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, leading to further declines. The potential downside target lies between $53.2 and $56.9, based on the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)). This analysis suggests continued bearish momentum, with limited upside potential unless the key pivot is breached.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Oil Finally Breaks the Range — Downside Momentum EmergingAfter weeks of sideways, messy price action where most traders got chopped up, CL has finally chosen a direction. During that entire range-bound phase, we stayed on the sidelines and focused on cleaner markets instead — waiting patiently for this exact moment of clarity. Now price has broken below the range lows with the 5/10/20 EMAs stacked cleanly beneath the 50 EMA, confirming downside momentum and the start of a new expansion phase. For the first time in weeks, structure is aligned and directional — no more fakeouts, no more noise. This is the kind of clean context where money is made, not lost. The plan now is simple: wait for a lower-high pullback into the EMA stack and look for continuation setups if structure holds. Questions for discussion: – Did you avoid trading this chop or get caught inside it? – Are you seeing similar clean shifts forming in other markets right now? – Do you prefer to sit out until context like this forms, or trade through the noise?
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SirCharIes
Lower Highs Signal Weakness: Crude Oil Bears Eye $61 Support The recent attempt to rally stalled around $65–66, failing to break above the mid-Bollinger band resistance. Multiple long upper wicks show selling pressure on rallies. Price is moving closer to the lower band after failing to hold above the middle band. The market shows weak upside momentum and dominant selling pressure. As long as price stays below $65.50, bears maintain control. If $61.00 support breaks, downside targets are $59.00, then $57.00.
NYMEX:CLV2025Short
by Sahrin
Market Expectations Misfire as OPEC Plus Delivers a Smaller HikeOPEC+ surprised markets on 05/Oct (Sun) with a smaller-than-expected output hike, triggering a rebound in crude prices the following day. In contrast, WTI had trended lower the previous week amid expectations of a larger supply increase, rising U.S. inventories, and cautious sentiment. This paper examines the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, highlighting how market expectations often diverge from actual decisions, driving sharp price swings and uncertainty. WTI HIT 4-MONTH LOW ON OPEC+ HIKE SPECULATION WTI crude oil futures fell 7.4% in the week ending on 03/Oct, with prices falling for four consecutive sessions between 29/Sep – 02/Oct. The decline was driven by expectations of a significant increase in OPEC+ supply. OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a modest 137,000 bpd output hike for November, matching October’s increase. The markets initially anticipated a much larger adjustment for November, with speculation centering on a potential 500,000 bpd hike as Saudi Arabia pushed to regain market share. Although OPEC dismissed media reports on X of such a move as “misleading,” traders continued to price in the possibility of a sizeable increase. Source: CME Group OPEC+ Watch Tool as of markets on 3rd October 2025 Notably, CME’s OPEC Watch tool reflected a bearish sentiment on 03/Oct (Fri). Source: CME Group OPEC+ Watch Tool as of markets on 3rd October 2025 Until 26/Sep, the consensus leaned toward a pause or small hike. However, since then, expectations for a moderate or significant increase rose sharply, adding further downward pressure on crude prices. Nonetheless, the cartel’s decision was a surprise. According to Reuters , this was caused by internal disagreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Russia pushed for a smaller hike to avoid pressuring prices, as sanctions limit its ability to raise output. Saudi Arabia, with ample spare capacity, preferred a larger increase to regain its market share more quickly. Overall, OPEC+ maintained a positive outlook on the global economy, citing steady growth, healthy market fundamentals, and low oil inventories. LOW INVENTORIES AND SOFTER U.S. OUTPUT OFFER SUPPORT FOR WTI Amid expectations of a larger OPEC+ supply hike, WTI also faced pressure from cautious market sentiment as the U.S. government shutdown persisted, and weak economic data weighed on demand outlook. However, prices found support from persistently low U.S. crude inventories, which remain well below the five-year average and near the lower end of the historical range. Source: EIA Despite a slight weekly build, overall supply conditions remain tight. With WTI prices easing, U.S. production has also edged lower, a trend that could further restrict inventory growth and lend near-term support to crude prices. CONCLUSION OPEC+ controls more than half of the global oil supply, making its output decisions a major driver of crude prices. Source: CME’s CVOL Index Since the group began unwinding supply cuts in 2025, each meeting has triggered noticeable price swings, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to these decisions. Source: TradingView While mapping price direction is challenging, options allow traders to gain exposure without directly owning the commodity. They provide flexibility to capitalise on increased volatility around OPEC+ meetings. The following examples illustrate how options can be strategically used: Long Call : Seeing the inventory lag, a trader could have taken a bullish stance on the OPEC meeting outcome through a long call on WTI Crude Monday weekly options. On 02/Oct (Thu), the option had settled at USD 0.77 per barrel, implying a premium of USD 770 per lot (contract size = 1,000). By 06/Oct (Mon), after a bullish OPEC outcome had lifted crude prices, the option traded at USD 1.12 per barrel as of 4 AM ET. A single-lot position would have gained USD 350 (USD 1,120 – USD 770). This showed a strong return relative to risk, with losses limited to the premium paid. It underscored how weekly options allowed precise positioning around specific events. Long Put : Expecting a strong output hike from OPEC+, a trader could have taken a long put position on WTI Crude Monday weekly options. On 02/Oct (Thu), the option had settled at USD 1.07 per barrel, or USD 1,070 per lot (contract size = 1,000 barrels). By 06/Oct (Mon), after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected output hike, the option traded at USD 0.01 per barrel as of 4 AM ET. A single-lot position would have lost USD 1,060 (USD 1,070 – USD 10). Although the trade resulted in a loss, the downside was limited to the option premium. In contrast, holding a futures position in the same direction would have led to significantly larger losses. Overall, options allow traders to participate in volatile price movements while keeping potential losses limited, making them a valuable tool for strategic positioning around uncertainty. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
MCX Crude Oil Futures – Intraday Analysis 7th Oct., 25MCX:CRUDEOIL1! Crude Oil is trading at 5,489 after a choppy, range-bound session, with price action coiling near both the long entry (5,494) and neutral zone (5,491) pivots—signaling a breakout or breakdown is due. Bullish Scenario Long Entry (5,494): Initiate fresh longs above 5,494 as intraday swing highs get taken out, backing a push toward higher resistance. Add more above 5,483 if dips are bought and the trend stays intact, confirming a base. Upside Targets: 5,549 (Target 1): First mapped resistance and supply for partial profit booking. 5,585 (Target 2): Further extension zone if strong momentum develops. Stop Loss: Use just below 5,472 (short entry), or progressively trail as price advances for risk control. Bearish Scenario Short Entry (5,472): Shorts are viable below 5,472, marking breakdown of support and the likelihood of a move back toward recent lows. Downside Targets: 5,433 (Target 1): Bounce/support area and first logical exit for shorts. 5,397 (Target 2): Next mapped extension if heavy selloff appears. Stop Loss: Cover shorts if price retakes 5,494 to avoid whipsaws. Structure & Neutral Logic Neutral Zone (5,491): Choppy, indecisive trading around this level—wait for a decisive move above 5,494 or below 5,472 for directional setups. As long as price oscillates this band, expect more sideways action.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by ChartPathik
Macro Recap & Crude Oil Trade SetupNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! Markets Overview Markets have largely shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown, with major indices pressing to fresh all-time highs. While the headline optimism continues, it’s important to note that over one million federal employees remain furloughed, leading to delays in key economic data releases and potential short-term distortions in macro readings. Despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projecting stronger growth, underlying household dynamics suggest stress ahead. Lower-income consumers, already contending with tighter credit and depleted savings, are likely to see further deterioration in spending and sentiment, which may weigh on Q4 consumption trends. Market Positioning & Flows While equities appear to be in a new leg of the bull market, positioning data suggests this may not be entirely organic. According to publicly available data many hedge funds continue to under-perform the S&P 500, forcing catch-up buying after missing the April lows. This dynamic may also be contributing to the current momentum-driven equity strength, even as macro headwinds persist. Metals Performance Precious metals have been standout performers year-to-date, reflecting declining real yields and persistent inflation hedging flows: • Gold: +42.46% YTD • Silver: +56.88% YTD • Platinum: +71.29% YTD (Source: Finviz YTD Futures Performance) This rally underscores a broader rotation toward real assets, consistent with expectations of lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar trajectory. Crude Oil Technical & Trade Setup Crude oil prices reached $66.42 in September before retracing lower. The recent OPEC+ announcement of additional voluntary cut unwinding at a pace of 137 kbpd for November adds a modest supply-side loosening. From a technical perspective, price action has bounced at the yearly Volume Profile’s Value Area Low (VAL), a key area of structural support. Current positioning shows: • Price trading below Q2 VAL • Price trading above yearly VAL (yVAL) Scenario 1: Long on Reclaim of Q2 VAL • Setup: Watch for crude to confirm acceptance back above the Q2 VAL as a support level. • Trigger: Long entry on confirmation of acceptance above VAL. • Target: o First target: 2025 mid-range at $62.97 o Secondary target: Yearly open at $65.17 Scenario 2 : Long on Deeper Retest • Setup: Should price reject Q2 VAL, patience is warranted. • Entry Zone: Wait for price to move lower toward yVAL and March 2025 low confluence. • Target: Return move toward 2025 mid-range ($62.97). Despite near-term noise from policy uncertainty and supply adjustments, the broader technical structure favors accumulation on weakness rather than chasing momentum. Crude remains range-bound but biased for upside stabilization into Q4, supported by resilient demand and disciplined OPEC+ management.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear