Get started
Crude Oil FuturesCrude Oil FuturesCrude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures

OverviewNewsIdeasMindsTechnicalsForward curveSeasonalsOptions

Trade ideas

US CPI Number? Lets see What Crude Is Telling us... Today is the US CPI one of the most important events before the Fed’s next move I’ve often used the relationship between US CPI and Crude oil, and it has been a reliable guide many times before. Key points 👉Crude was down -8.5% in August → we may see a suprise with lower CPI 👉 Official expectations are for higher CPI: from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y → risk of a miss 👉Even if CPI hits 2.9%, dollar may not rally far → because its expected number 👉Dollar bottomed in Sep 2024 after Fed made 1st cut in while→ weak USD risk remains till FED cuts, then reversal
NYMEX:CL1!
by ew-forecast
Oil tests 20 SMA resistanceOil trades within a descending channel dating back to 2023. The price also trades below its 20, 50, and 200 SMA in a bearish trend. Oil faced rejection at the 50 SMA and rebounded lower before finding support at 61.50, the August low. The price has recovered higher and is testing the 20 SMA resistance and the mid-point of the descending channel. Buyers will need to close above 63.50 to extend gains towards 65.00, the 50 SMA, and the September high. A rise above here creates a higher high and exposes the 200 SMA. Selles will need to break below 61.50 to create a lower low and extend the bearish trend. FC
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FOREX.com
Light Crude Oil | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDTLight Crude Oil Futures | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60  EDT Ressitance Zone: 63.55 – 63.00 Scenario 1 : Buy Entry: 63.55 Stop Loss: 63 Targets: TP1 → 64.82 TP2 → 65.54 TP3 → 66.00 Analysis: From Buy Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a buy move. Scenario 2 : Sell Entry: 63 Stop Loss: 63.55 Targets: TP1 → 62.37 TP2 → 61.85 Analysis: Below Resistance Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a sell move. Stay alert on updates here. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TrendReset
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again. This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat. The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact). Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by HowToChart
WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025 Current Price : $62.25 Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis Executive Summary WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup. Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis Institutional Positioning Intelligence The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions: Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50 Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period Secondary Support Levels: $60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support $58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone Resistance Structure Analysis: $65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume $68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution $70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak Price Structure Context Historical Pattern Recognition: The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal. Critical Structure Points: Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing Execution Chart Technical Analysis Current Technical Configuration DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL: Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25 Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50 Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange) Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support DMI/ADX Assessment: ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement +DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction Stochastic Analysis: Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Technical Levels: Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line) Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC) Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary) Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low) Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach) Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone) Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup Required Conditions for Long Entry: DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30 Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence Entry Protocol: Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation) Profit Targets: Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25% Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup Short Entry Conditions: DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias Short Setup Parameters: Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown) Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones) Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation Sideways Trading Framework: Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone) Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary) Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary) Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract) Profit Target: Opposite range boundary Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Guidelines Conservative Approach (Recommended): Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict) Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.015 ÷ (Stop Distance × $10) Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support) Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach) Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation) Time-Based Risk Controls Monitoring Requirements: Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect 4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution Market Context and External Factors Fundamental Considerations Supply/Demand Dynamics: OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies China demand recovery prospects Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October) Geopolitical Factors: Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows Seasonal Patterns September-October Considerations: End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels Daily Monitoring Requirements DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets Critical Alert Levels Bullish Alerts: DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50 Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor +DI reclaiming dominance over -DI Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation Bearish Alerts: Break below $62.00 institutional floor DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange) Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50 ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance Conclusion and Strategic Outlook WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning. Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment. Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention Important Disclaimer Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor. Key Risk Considerations: Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance does not guarantee future results Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework. The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mxb1961
Chopped into Indecision - Some Thoughts on jacesabr_real's queryIf you’ve even felt chopped up with your trading, particularly with a situation where no matter what you do you ‘feel like your stop is getting picked off’ then you would not be alone. jacesabr_real reached out with such a challenge last week and so I’ve offered to share a few thoughts for what they're worth. Please feel free to take what resonates and ignore the rest. here's the original idea post : There are 3 areas a trader needs to understand and align with in order to be able to trade successfully: Market - The market condition: Bull, Bear, Sideways, Quiet Volatile, etc Method - Your process/strategy for engaging with the market (breakout, mean revert, etc) Mindset - The emotional state of the trader throughout the lifecycle of the trade These 3 areas overlap and despite being last in the list, I suggest that Mindset is the most important as it underpins everything. The late (great) Dr Van Tharp (featured in the original Market Wizards book) used to say that Mindset accounted for 80% of performance but later amended that to 100%. So I’ll address this from that focal point. The reason? It’s the mind from which the process/strategy is selected, the ‘impulse’ to trade emanates and then the lived experience resides. If a trader is having challenges with being stopped out frequently - it can result in a trader feeling like… ‘They’re picking me off’ 'I was ticked out' 'The idea hasn’t failed, I’m just going to get back in again' And it's easy to get into a revenge cycle of ‘doing the right thing’ but suffering fractional loss accumulation that adds up to a decent sized (even catastrophic) loss. Which can lead to a loss in confidence, energy and discipline. It’s a slippery slope. Which can lead to behaviours such as moving stops, sizing up bigger to make back, taking stops off entirely - continuing to take more trades as one is feeling ‘invested’ in the idea by sheer virtue of time spent in the process. Continue like this - maybe we get lucky and get the odd win to flatten out. Over time however, the risk is Tilt. As you will likely understand, this is a massive area, so, a few general points that I’ll invite you to consider: Approach your trading in this order: Mindset → Market → Method Your Mindset may start out strong but the Market will try to wear it down Protect your Mindset at all costs Build steps into the process to simplify decision making. Be clear on your rules for entry, management and exit. If you're unclear - you'll ask questions of yourself in the moment of the trade when it's hard to think clearly. Ensure there are rules around capital preservation. Some Suggestions: Don’t allow revenge trading to take over… create breaker switches. (i.e. walk away!, take breaks) Allow a re-entry of the same idea as part of your Method… but cap the number of attempts at the same trade idea to preserve capital and sanity (to perhaps 2 or 3 attempts). Don’t remove (or move) stops… ever. Always have a worst case stop for risk management If you’re getting stopped out frequently but the trade idea ultimately goes in your favour then your stop may be too tight (more to do with Market & Method) Use a larger worst-case stop… and reduce position size if necessary Monitor changes in volatility for your market (the Market condition may have changed and require an adaptation to your stop sizing to accommodate With regards to your specific questions the following thoughts came up for me. Many of your what if scenarios suggest that you may still need to look at your method. Pick an exit mechanism and stick with it. Collect the data points that will help inform whether your strategy is positive expectancy or not. If you keep changing the variables its really tough to track what works and what doesn't. Get to understand your strategy and the stats around it. What is ‘normal’ in the way of number of losses. I’d suggest that seeing 4-5 losses of the same trade type a number of times a week might be a lot. Consider the language that you are using. I notice the phrase ‘suicide stop’. Consider what that does to psychology subliminally. Perhaps use something like ‘hard stop’ or ‘capital preservation stop’ to keep your emotional balance and professionalism in your craft. I hope this is helpful.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by soda8888
1