NG1! Update Nov 29th DEC 4th EIA PREDICTION
-10 to -15 BCF (withdrawal) estimated is what it should be
but
most likely the report = +8 to+13BCF Injection is what it would need to be in order for price to go down and match the price targets below. if this plays out.
Natural Gas: Headlines vs Reality
What media says: Polar vortex! Cold coming! Going to $6!
What's buried: Record production, storage 5% above normal, "supplies comfortable"
What market says:
January contract: $4.85 (pricing panic) NG1
February contract: $4.42 (pricing reality) NG2
backwardation.
is telling us January is inflated, not that there's a crisis.
$4.418 = where it's going
Watching these levels for support or bounce
$3.95, 4.00, 4.20, 4.45
Odds:
$4.40-4.50, /80%
$4.20-4.40, /65%
$4.00-4.20 /50%
below $4.00/ 30%
but this is nat gas, lets see how it plays out
Good hunting.
