Trade ideas
12/11/25 Still Sideways Small Trading Range So Far
Yesterday’s candlestick (Tuesday, Nov 11) was a bull bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market traded higher in the morning but reversed to close off its high.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or around the 20-day EMA area, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Nov 12), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
Andrew
FCPO Trading Plan - 4th Nov - Morning sessionMain Trend: Bearish
Short Term Trend : Bearish
Trading Plan: For Morning Session
• Short –
o If price unable to break above 4141. TP1=4103 TP2=4063
SL=4153
o If price gap up but fail to break above 4193. TP1=4167 TP2=4141 SL=4195
• Long –
o If price break above 4141. TP1=4167 TP2=4193 SL=4135
o If price gap up above 4193. TP1=4232 TP2=4271 SL=4187
A breakout above 4,141 could trigger a short-term rebound, while rejection would resume the downtrend, Until a breakout occurs, bias remains slightly bearish within the downtrend channel.
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
4/11/25 Can The Bulls Create a Minor PB to 20-Day EMA?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Monday, Nov 3) was a follow-through bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market traded lower, testing the 4100 level.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 3).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 10-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 3).
Production: October output likely increased; November figures are yet to be announced.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: October exports rose 5.19%, according to ITS.
Overall, the market is breaking out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 10-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers maybe waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For today, (Nov 4), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
FCPO Week 45 2025: Retrace or consolidation to continue bearish.Bearish overall. However there is a sign of bearish exhaustion.Price making swing lows but the momentum has declined thus signalling that price might retrace before resuming lower. However looking at 15m chart this retracement is not started yet. Still no higher low or higher high yet. Monday session might give a bit more idea. Retracing towards 4300 is possible but next week would probably where price going into consolidation then retracement before continuing lower.
Happy hunting!
3/11/25 - Nov Likely to Trade at Least a Little Lower
Friday’s candlestick (Oct 31) was a bear bar closing near its low.
In our previous report, we noted that the bulls wanted a strong bull bar to form a weekly candlestick with a long tail below, reducing the week’s bearishness. Conversely, the bears wanted a strong bear bar to confirm control and close the week strongly bearish.
The market traded lower, and the weekly candlestick indeed closed as a strong bear bar near its low.
The bulls hope the current move is simply a deep pullback.
They want to see a failed breakout below the September 23 low.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel.
The bears, on the other hand, wanted follow-through selling below the September low — and they got it.
The current move has formed a 9-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Oct 31 low).
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
Production: October output likely increased; November figures are yet to be announced.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though slightly less enthusiastic.
Exports: October exports rose 5.19%, according to ITS.
Overall, the market is breaking out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 9-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
For Monday (Nov 3), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers likely waiting above the bear microchannel.
Andrew
Strong downtrend, price has broken below several support levels.The price is well below the Kumo (cloud), which is a strong bearish signal.
The Kijun-Sen (Base Line) is at 4,405 and the Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line) is below it, suggesting bearish momentum.
The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) is below the price from 26 periods ago, confirming the bearish trend.
The downtrend line and a minor level around 4,240 (2.414 Fibonacci extension). A significant resistance level is marked near 4,452.
A support level is marked at 4,163.
Significant potential support zones:
4,097 - 4,117 (a cluster of Fibonacci extensions).
4,000 (a major psychological support level, marked as "Support - 4000").
The lowest identified support/resistance is at 3,953.
Bollinger Bands (BB): The price is trading outside or near the lower band, indicating high volatility and potential oversold conditions, although in a strong trend, this can persist.
Pattern: A small Flag pattern (bearish continuation pattern) was indicated around late October, which has now been broken to the downside, reinforcing the bearish move.
The overall technical outlook is strongly bearish ("Status: Weak" according to the Ichimoku summary). The price action suggests a likely continuation towards the next major support level at 4,000 MYR.
13/11/25 Still No Bounce, Will Bears Get Another Leg Down?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 12) was an inside bear bar closing in its lower half.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
The market continues to trade sideways as the bulls have not yet been able to create a decent pullback.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control.
They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If the pullback continues to be sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down will increase.
For today (Thursday, Nov 13), traders will watch whether the bears will attempt to create another leg down, or if the market will continue to consolidate sideways.
Andrew
11/11/25 Can Bulls Create a Decent Pullback?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Monday, Nov 10) was a doji bar with prominent tails that closed in its lower half.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market continued to trade in a sideways, tight consolidation.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or around the 20-day EMA area, followed by another leg down.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Tuesday, Nov 11), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways.
Andrew
10/11/25 MPOB Data - Sideways Consolidation After Strong Selloff
Friday’s candlestick (Nov 7) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling instead.
The market traded down and closed the week near its low, increasing the odds of the market trading at least a little lower next week.
The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move.
They also want a pullback to the 20-day EMA.
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low.
Fundamentals
• Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
• Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures.
• Exports: ITS down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may have to form a minor pullback before resuming lower.
The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor.
If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For tomorrow (Monday, Nov 10), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling instead.
FCPO CLEAR SIDEWAY ( CONSOLIDATION) TRADING PLANMain Trend: Bearish
Short Term Trend : Sideway
Trading Plan: 10/11/25
• Short –
o (Trend Continuation) If price breakdown below Support Rectangle. TP1=4081 TP2=4067 TP3= 4053 SL=4106
o If price gap up but fail to break above Resistance Rectangle. TP1= 4134 TP2=4120 SL=4161
• Long –
o If price break trendline. TP1=4120 TP2=4148 SL=4092
o If price gap up above Resistance Rectangle. TP1=4187 TP2=4213 SL=4140
Bias: Favours overall downtrend
Confirm breakout with volume + RSI direction.
Bullish Divergence with RSi
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
7/11/25 Still Minor Sideways Consolidation Phase
Yesterday’s candlestick (Thursday, Nov 6) was an outside bull bar closing near its high.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market continues sideways for now, in a small sideways overlapping pullback / consolidation phase.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The selloff had the form of a 12-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 6).
Production: SPPOMA up 5% in the first 5 days.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS is down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 12-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The minor pullback is currently underway, albeit still weak.
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
The bears broke below the Nov 3 low last night, but there was no follow-through selling.
For today, (Nov 7), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce ore decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling instead.
Today, the bulls hope to get a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick closes with a prominent tail below, reducing the recent bearishness. The bears want a strong bear bar so the weekly candlestick closes near its low, leading to more downside next week.
Andrew
6/11/25 Can Bulls Create a PB or More Downside?
Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 5) was an inside bear bar closing near its low.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls could produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears would extend their follow-through selling.
The market traded sideways for the day and closed near its low.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 12-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 6).
Production: November figures are yet to be released.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS is down 15.38% in the first 5 days.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 12-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, sellers may be waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
The bears broke below the Nov 3 low last night, but there was no follow-through selling.
For today, (Nov 6), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
Interesting Set Up for FCPOFrom the 2019 - 2022 bull run, the long drawn complex corrective phase is beginning to trace out a major A_B_C formation to complete its 5 impulse and 3 corrective wave.
We can expect wave (c) of Wave B to pan out a 5 wave structure If the reading is correct .
Given the current movement at the point of writing, wave iv (yellow) retraced 0.618% of wave iii and that wave c is 1.618 of wave a - meeting at almost the same place increases the probability of a wave v to the upside to complete wave B .
FCPO has an approximate 3 year high cycle positioned in 2025 which augment the possibility another up move .
5/11/25 Sideways Consolidation After Strong Selloff
Yesterday’s candlestick (Tuesday, Nov 3) was an inside bull bar.
In our previous report, we noted that traders would watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
The market formed a small range consolidation day.
The bulls hope the current move will form a major higher low.
They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 3).
To show they’re regaining control, the bulls must now produce strong consecutive bull bars breaking clearly above the bear microchannel and closing above the 20-day EMA.
The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area.
The current move has formed a 11-bar bear microchannel, signaling strong bears and persistent selling pressure.
The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the current low (Nov 3).
Production: November figures are yet to be released.
Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying a premium vs spot futures.
Exports: ITS figure to be released today.
Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent 11-bar bear microchannel — evidence of strong selling momentum.
The market remains Always-In-Short.
The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. Perhaps a minor pullback (bounce) may be in the cards soon?
For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, with sellers above the bear microchannel. If there is a stronger bounce, perhaps sellers maybe waiting around the 20-day EMA area.
For today, (Nov 5), traders will watch whether the bulls can produce a minor pullback and a few decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the bears will extend their follow-through selling.
Andrew
31/10/25 Bulls Want PB, First PB Likely Minor
Yesterday's candlestick (Thursday, October 30) was an inside bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bulls could create a decent minor pullback attempt, or if any pullback would be weak (long tails above candlestick, closing below its lower half, lacking follow-through buying), and the bears continue to get follow-through selling.
The market formed a small pullback but did not trade above the prior day's high.
The bulls see the current move as a deep pullback.
They want the September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 29 lows).
They want a failed breakout below the September 23 low.
They must create strong consecutive bull bars breaking strongly above the bear microchannel to show they are back in control.
The bears want strong follow-through selling below the September low sometime this week. They got what they wanted.
The current move is in the form of an 8-bar bear microchannel, indicating strong bears and persistent selling.
The first pullback would likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the current low extreme (currently the Oct 29 low).
The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading below the September 23 low to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production: SPPOMA's first 25 days increased by +2.78%.
Refineries' appetite to buy is there, slightly less enthusiastic.
Export: Oct down 0.36% for the first 25 days as per ITS.
The bulls want a strong bull bar today, which will create a weekly candlestick with a long tail below, reducing the week's bearishness.
The bears want a strong bear bar today to create a strong bear bar on the weekly chart. If this is the case, odds will favor next week trading at least a little lower.
Today (Friday, Oct 31), traders will see whether the bulls can mount a decent minor pullback attempt.
Or will any pullback be weak (long tails above candlestick, closing below its lower half, lacking in follow-through buying), followed by the bears continuing to get follow-through selling in the days ahead?
For now, odds slightly favor the first pullback to be minor and sellers above the bear microchannel.
Andrew
FCPO Forming a symmetrical triangle Main Trend: Bearish
Short Term Trend : Sideways
Trading Plan:
• Short –
o If price unable to break above 4272. TP1=4255 TP24237 TP3=4213
SL=4280
o If price gap up but fail to break above 4287. TP1=4272 TP2=4255 SL=4290
• Long –
o If price break above 4272. TP1=4287 TP2=4313 SL=4263
o If price gap up above 4287. TP1=4300 TP2=4313 SL=4278
DMI: +DI (green) is trying to cross above -DI (red), suggesting potential early bullish momentum.
Disclaimer: This is just my IDEA on the market, not a suggestion to open any trade. Please do not follow without any personal due diligence on the market.
30/10/25 First Pullback Would Likely Only Be Minor
Yesterday's candlestick (Wednesday, October 29) was another bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bears could create more follow-through selling, or if the bulls could create a pullback instead.
The bears continue to create follow-through selling, closing below the September 23 low.
The bulls see the current move as a deep pullback.
They want the September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 29 lows).
They want a failed breakout below the September 23 low.
They must create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control.
The bears want strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, with a break below the September low sometime this week. So far, this is the case.
The current move is in the form of a 7-bar bear microchannel, indicating strong bears and persistent selling.
The first pullback would likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the current low extreme (currently the Oct 29 low).
The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading below the September 23 low to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production: SPPOMA's first 25 days increased by +2.78%.
Refineries' appetite to buy is there, slightly less enthusiastic.
Export: Oct down 0.36% for the first 25 days as per ITS.
For today (Thursday, Oct 29), traders will see if the bulls can create a decent minor pullback attempt.
Or will any pullback be weak (long tails below candlestick, closing below its lower half, lacking in follow-through buying), and the bears continue to get follow-through selling?
For now, odds slightly favor sellers above the first minor pullback.
Andrew
Declining Palm Oil Prices : CSE - WATA/AGAL/NAMU/etcFundamentals
Malaysian palm oil futures have entered a corrective phase, plunging to a four-week low with an 8% decline over the period. This price softening is primarily attributed to:
• Demand contraction in key export markets
• Appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, reducing competitiveness
CSE Companies with exposure to palm oil benefited from favorable pricing over the previous three months, with notable rallies.
Strategy
The recent price correction is unlikely to impact current quarter earnings.
However, next quarter margins may compress if the downtrend persists
Given the current trajectory of international prices, think a prudent profit-booking approach is more appropriate.
Re-entry opportunities may arise post-stabilization, levels to watch are marked in the chart.
29/10/25 Bears Want Close Below September 23 Low
Yesterday's candlestick (Tuesday, October 28) was another bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bears could create more follow-through selling, or if the bulls could create a pullback instead.
They continue to create follow-through selling, testing the September 23 low.
The bulls see the current move as another pullback.
They want the September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 29 lows).
They must create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control.
The bears want strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, with a break below the September low sometime this week. So far, this is the case.
The current move is in the form of a 6-bar bear microchannel, indicating strong bears and persistent selling. There may be sellers above the first pullback.
If the market trades higher, they expect at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the current leg extreme low (currently Oct 29 low).
The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading below the September 23 low to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production: SPPOMA's first 25 days increased by +2.78%.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: Oct down 0.36% for the first 25 days as per ITS.
For today (Wednesday, Oct 29), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling and close below the October 23 low.
Or will the market trade lower, but close with a long tail or a bull body instead?
For now, if there is a small bounce, odds slightly favor sellers above the bear microchannel.
Andrew
CPO JAN Futures Double top PatternCPO Jan futures forming double top chart pattern. Prices are trading well below the rising trend line at 4350. Trading below 4350 prices are expected to trade further lower to test 4200 - 4100 range in near term. If price falls further below 4100 then we might witness prices to test 3950 - 3800 levels. Any trade between 3800 to 3600 range will be seen as a long term buying opportunity. One should be also couscous around 3900 which can also be acting a a strong support. Chart attached
28/10/25 Will Bears Get More FT or Can Bull Create Minor PB?
Yesterday's candlestick (Monday, October 27) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would observe whether the bears could create more follow-through selling, or if the bulls would be able to create a pullback near the 20-EMA.
They managed to create follow-through selling, testing the September 30 low area.
The bulls see the current move as another pullback.
They want the September 30 or September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 23 lows).
They want the market to reverse back above the 20-day EMA.
They must create strong consecutive bull bars to show they are back in control.
The bears want strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, with a break below the September low sometime this week.
The current move is in the form of a 5-bar bear microchannel, which means strong bears and persistent selling. There may be sellers above the first pullback.
If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, forming a lower high, followed by a 3rd leg sideways to down.
The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading below the September 23 low to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production: SPPOMA's first 25 days increased by +2.78%.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: Oct down 0.36% for the first 25 days as per ITS.
For today (Tuesday, Oct 28), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
Or will the bulls be able to create a pullback instead?
For now, if there is a small pullback, odds slightly favor sellers above the bear microchannel.
Andrew
27/10/25 Bears Want FT Selling, Bulls Want PB to 20-Day EMA
Friday’s candlestick (Oct 24) was an inside bear bar closing near its low and still trading below the 20-day EMA.
In our last report, we stated that traders observe whether the bears can create a bear bar closing near their low. If they get that, the weekly candlestick will close near its low, which will increase the odds of next week trading at least a little lower. Or would the bulls be able to create a bull bar instead?
The market bears managed to create a bear bar, and the weekly chart closed near its low.
The bulls see the current move as another pullback.
They want the September 30 or September 23 low areas to act as support, forming a large double bottom bull flag (September 23 and October 23 lows).
They want the market to reverse back above the 20-day EMA.
They must create strong consecutive bull bars trading above the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
The bears see the recent (Oct 9) move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
They got a pullback from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 9), a lower high major trend reversal (Oct 9), as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high on the larger time frame.
They see last Friday's rally (Oct 17) forming a lower high and Tuesday's (Oct 21) forming a micro double top (Oct 17 and Oct 21).
They want strong follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA, with a break below the September low sometime this week.
If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA or the October 17 high to act as resistance, followed by a 3rd leg sideways to down.
The bears must create sustained follow-through selling trading far below the 20-day EMA and the September 23 low to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
Production: SPPOMA's first 20 days increased up 2.7%.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: Oct up 2.4% for the first 20 days as per ITS.
For today (Monday, Oct 27), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
Or will the bulls be able to create a pullback near the 20-EMA instead?
Andrew






















