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Invesco QQQ Trust Series IInvesco QQQ Trust Series IInvesco QQQ Trust Series I

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I

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QQQ (10 October)The 50d MA often acts as the first line of defense in bull markets When the price breaks below its intraday high and then reclaims it within 1-3 sessions, it is considered a bullish continuation setup Historically, QQQ tends to bounce 3-5% after reclaiming its 50d MA following a 2-3% flush So if QQQ closes back above $595, it could accelerate through $600–$610 toward prior highs near $615–$620 Today's drop is a retest of intermediate trend support, not a deep structural breakdown
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Ideal Risk FloorThe $568–$582 area aligns with deep Fibonacci support, sentiment washout & historical rebound behavior after tariff shocks - all ingredients for a fast relief rally The market is currently hovering between $582–$589, sitting right above that 78–82% retracement Historically, this acts as a springboard for sharp short-covering rallies; unless, macro fundamentals deteriorate rapidly "China–US Tariffs” marks both the prior and current inflection points - the market clearly prices in trade policy uncertainty aggressively, then reverts once it stabilizes After similar shocks (“Liberation Day” or “Midnight Hammer”), QQQ rebounded 6–9% within 5–10 trading days That would translate now to $615–$640 targets if history rhymes Momentum algorithms will likely trigger buys if QQQ closes back above $595, so that’s the near-term confirmation pivot $580–$585 is the ideal risk floor, while $605–$615 offers a reward window
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Short-Term Sentiment WashoutSteep one-day drawdown + fear spike often precedes short-term rebounds & so long as $585 holds, the setup favors a reflexive rally back toward $605–$610 585–$600 is the active panic zone; heavy selling & volatility expansion Next major support is $560–$570 which is the base from spring, if this breaks, larger correction risk Resistance 1 at $605–$610 is the first bounce target/prior floor Resistance 2 at $620–$625 is the intermediate target if rally extends multiple days This looks more like a sentiment flush than the start of a prolonged bear move (at least for now) so confirmation signals to watch Monday QQQ futures (NQ) green premarket +0.5% or more VIX down 5–8% Mega-caps (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL) showing strong premarket bids RSI divergence or a hammer candle near $585–$590 intraday
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
Global Equities in EUR - The 2025 Suprise WinnersLast year, everyone crowded into the S&P 500 trade — “why bother being anywhere else?” One year later, when we look at YTD returns in euros, the picture changes completely 👇 YTD Performance (in EUR) 🇨🇳 FXI (China): +21.7 % 🇪🇺 FEZ (Europe): +16.8 % 🇯🇵 EWJ (Japan): +6.5 % 🇺🇸 QQQ (Nasdaq 100): +7.4 % 🇺🇸 SPY (S&P 500): +3.0 % 🇺🇸 IWM (Russell 2000): –0.3 % The “uninvestable” China market has quietly outperformed every major index. Europe also posted strong gains, while U.S. benchmarks lagged once adjusted for FX. 💡 A reminder that currency and narrative can distort what “performance” really means.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by OrbisInvestment
$QQQ | VolanX Macro Wave Projection – 2025/26 Outlook⚡ NASDAQ:QQQ | VolanX Macro Wave Projection – 2025/26 Outlook Price currently accelerating along a sharp trendline toward the Fib 1.236 extension near 650. Momentum remains strong, but structure now mirrors the late-stage expansion phase — high probability of equilibrium retest before continuation. Key Zones: Support: 540 → 508 (prior breakout base) Equilibrium: 480–500 zone Premium Target: 650–660 (1.236 confluence) Next Macro Resistance: 714–760 (1.618–1.786 extension) 📊 VolanX DSS Bias: Bullish momentum intact ✅ Macro trend exhaustion probability: ~35% Long-term trajectory remains upward unless 540 fails A controlled pullback would strengthen the long-term structure — healthy, not bearish. Keep an eye on liquidity behavior near 650; that’s where big money will rotate. #QQQ #VolanX #MacroWave #LiquidityZones #SmartMoney #AITrading #WaverVanir Not Investment Advice ⚡
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
QQQ Short-Term RhythmThe expected-move range (using current IV ≈ 17%-18%) to see where QQQ statistically “should” trade by mid-October, which may be helpful for picking your next strike 1. Bounce from 20d MA $596–$600 with a retest of $610–$615 (60%) 2. Sideways continuation between $600–$610 (25%) 3. Close <$595 with a pullback to $580 (15 %) A dip into $598-$600 with a stabilizing candle is statistically the highest-reward entry for short-term calls No reason to short unless price closes below both the trendline and 20d MA on elevated volume (>60M) If anything, the next real move could be a bounce attempt, not a flush Based on current implied volatility (IV ≈ 17.8 %) & QQQ ≈ 605, the expected move (1σ range) for the coming week & into 24 October, where Expected Move = Price × IV × √( t /365) 17 October (10 days) ≈ 1σ 15 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 30 pts (95% probability) $590-$620 24 October (17 days) ≈ 1σ 20 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 40 pts (95% probability) $585-$625 31 October (24 days) ≈ 1σ 24 pts (68% probability) ≈ 2σ 48 pts (95% probability) $580-$630 So statistically, QQQ has about a 68% chance to stay between ≈ $585 & $625 by 24 October If you’re bullish, Favor calls slightly OTM ($610-$615) expiry 24 October Target breakout confirmation above $608 with volume If you’re cautious/swing-trading, Use short-dated, low-cost put lottos near $600 only on breakdown <$600 (ideally Friday/Monday flush) If you prefer defined risk, Debit spreads ($605/$615 call spread) give good exposure without over-paying IV 20d MA ≈ $597 lines up with the lower 1σ bound (~$590-$595) Resistance near $612 is mid-upper 1σ band (~$620) So the option market’s “expected move” fits almost perfectly with your technical structure
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
SPY/QQQ Bearish Divergence, VIX Compression, XLK→XLV Rotation After a month building my automated pattern detection system (Legend AI) and preparing for CMT Level I, I returned to find one of the cleanest technical setups of 2025—and today it's showing early signs of confirmation. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE SETUP: BEARISH DIVERGENCE NEAR ALL-TIME HIGHS Recent Action: SPY approached $669 (ATH territory) QQQ approached $605 (ATH territory) Markets at elevated levels As of today's close: Both indices slightly red on light volume VIX up approximately 6% (waking from compression) Early confirmation of divergence thesis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PART 1: THE DIVERGENCE (SPY/QQQ) SPY and QQQ daily charts showing price near highs while RSI makes lower highs, volume below average SPY Analysis: Price Structure: Near all-time highs around $669 Ascending channel (upper resistance) Above all major moving averages RSI (14-period): August peak: 72 September peak: 68 October peak: 65 Textbook negative divergence. Price making higher highs. RSI making lower highs. When momentum diverges from price, rallies often exhaust. Volume (Critical Signal): Recent volume: 20-30% below 20-day average Distribution pattern emerging When institutions are excited, volume SURGES. When they're distributing, volume DRIES UP. Current pattern suggests distribution. QQQ Analysis: Price Structure: Near highs around $605 Channel resistance test Tech still leading (but showing fatigue) RSI Divergence: September: 70 October: 65 Volume: Approximately 5-10% below average Less extreme than SPY, but weekly RSI shows clear decline from August highs. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PART 2: SECTOR ROTATION (The Tell) XLK extended at resistance, XLV breaking higher showing defensive rotation XLK (Technology): ~$286 At upper channel resistance (third touch) RSI showing fatigue Volume below average XLV (Healthcare): ~$144 Breaking out of downtrend RSI improving (mid-50s range) Defensive bid emerging What This Rotation Signals: When money flows to defensives DURING a bull market, institutions are often de-risking. The cycle: Tech/Growth leads (early bull) Cyclicals lead (mid bull) Defensives lead (late bull) ← Current phase Cash/Bonds lead (bear market) ← Potential next XLV strength while XLK stalls = classic late-cycle behavior. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PART 3: VIX COMPRESSION (The Spring) VIX in 5-month descending triangle around 17, compression before expansion VIX: Around 17 (up ~6% today) Structure: 5-month descending triangle Lower highs: 22 → 20 → 18 Flat support: 15 Apex approaching Why This Matters: VIX compression at market highs is often complacency, not confidence. Historical Context: January 2022: VIX 17 → spiked to 37 (market corrected 12%) August 2024: VIX 15 → spiked to 65 (flash crash 10%) February 2020: VIX 14 → spiked to 85 (COVID crash 35%) Today's surge is the first significant move in months. Breakout Level: 21 VIX close above 21 would break descending triangle (bullish for VIX = bearish for equities). Typical spike from these patterns: 30-50% within 2 weeks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ WHY I'M BUILDING LEGEND AI This is EXACTLY the pattern I'm building Legend AI to detect automatically. The system I'm developing scans for: Multi-timeframe RSI divergence (daily + weekly) Volume anomalies (significantly below average on strength) Sector rotation shifts (defensive vs growth) VIX compression extremes Risk/reward scoring Why Automation Matters: I identified this setup manually by: Scanning charts for divergence patterns Calculating volume deviations vs moving averages Tracking sector ETF rotation Monitoring VIX structure Synthesizing signals into risk assessment This took 2-3 hours of focused analysis. The Challenge: Doesn't scale. Limited tickers, timeframes, and signals I can monitor. The Solution: Automate pattern detection to scan 500+ stocks in seconds, flag divergences on multiple timeframes, calculate volume deviations automatically, and alert high-probability setups. The Result: Focus shifts from hunting patterns to executing trades. This is institutional-grade approach—building systems that identify edge systematically, removing emotion and scaling analysis. Current Development Status: Foundation: Built VCP pattern detection: In progress (~60% complete) Divergence detection: In development (~30% complete) Target: End of October for initial version This divergence setup proves the concept: I can identify these patterns manually through disciplined analysis. Now building tools to systematize the process at scale. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S EARLY CONFIRMATION As of today's close: Indices: SPY/QQQ: Slightly negative on light volume Dow: Minor weakness Key Observations: Volume remained below average into close Tech showed slight underperformance VIX up approximately 6% (stirring from slumber) Defensive sectors maintained relative strength This represents early-stage confirmation. Not full breakdown yet, but thesis developing: Distribution continues (persistent light volume) Defensives outperforming (rotation in progress) Volatility awakening (VIX responding) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CONFIRMATION CHECKLIST Not calling a top. Identifying elevated risk. Watching For Full Confirmation: 1. Price Breakdown SPY closes decisively below $650 QQQ closes below $583 (50-day MA) Preferably same day 2. Volume Confirmation SPY volume significantly above average on breakdown QQQ volume surge on weakness Proves institutional selling 3. VIX Breakout VIX closes above 21 With participation Confirms fear entering 4. Sector Confirmation XLV outperforms XLK by 2%+ over multiple days Defensive rotation accelerates clearly Current Approach: Respecting the uptrend. Not shorting yet. But adjusting: Reducing position size 30-40% Tightening stops to 2-3% max Avoiding aggressive longs at resistance Building watchlist for post-correction opportunities Risk management, not market timing. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ RISK FRAMEWORK GREEN LIGHT (Lower Risk): Price + momentum confirming Volume strong on breakouts VIX contained and declining Clear sector leadership Action: Normal size, wider stops YELLOW LIGHT (Elevated Risk): ← CURRENT STATUS Divergence present but not fully confirmed Volume declining VIX compressed but not breaking Sector rotation beginning Action: Reduce 30-40%, tighten stops, favor quality RED LIGHT (High Risk): Confirmed breakdown with volume VIX spiking above 25 Defensives significantly outperforming Action: Minimal exposure, preservation mode ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Comprehensive analysis considers multiple outcomes. Bullish Case (What Could Invalidate): Volume Returns: New highs with strong participation Earnings Exceed: Q3 significantly beats expectations Fed Support: Rate cut signals come sooner Breadth Improves: Small caps participate, A/D confirms If these occur, divergence might resolve through consolidation (sideways digestion 4-8 weeks) rather than correction (breakdown). Never marry a thesis. Follow the data as it develops. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SUMMARY After a month of building and studying, returned to find a textbook setup showing early confirmation. The Evidence: Bearish divergence (SPY, QQQ) Distribution pattern (light volume into strength) VIX compression ending (surge today) Sector rotation to defensives (XLV strength) Early validation (today's weak close) This suggests elevated risk, not guaranteed correction. Approach: Reduce exposure meaningfully Tighten risk management Watch for full confirmation Stay disciplined and patient Best traders prepare for multiple outcomes rather than predicting one. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ What are you seeing in current market structure? Comment below—I engage with all responses. If this analysis added value, boost it so others can benefit. Follow for more systematic technical analysis and Legend AI development updates. —Kyle Thomas CMT Level I Candidate | SIE Certified Building Legend AI: Automated pattern detection for systematic trading
NASDAQ:QQQ
by KT_Charts
7
QQQ (3 October)The rising wedge (marked by the two converging trendlines) is a classic loss-of-momentum pattern Price hit the upper boundary near $607 & closed back below $604 - a rejection right at resistance The measured move (-6.7%) projects down toward roughly $565–$570, aligning neatly with the lower boundary of the wedge & prior consolidation levels The slope of the moving average remains upward which confirms the bullish trend, but the distance between price & the mean is stretched Each time QQQ touched this far above the average earlier in the year (June & August), we saw 5-7% mean reversion moves A proportional, healthy pullback If QQQ closes below ~$600, that would confirm the rising wedge breakdown & trigger the measured-move target to $570 If it bounces from $595-$600, we could see a short-term fakeout before another attempt to push higher toward $615 Volume (46.5M) on the rejection candle isn’t panic-level, but it is heavier than the previous few sessions, an early sign of distribution
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Tightening Up – Gamma Levels Will Decide Oct 3 Intraday Technical Outlook (15m Chart) The QQQ closed near $606.01, coiling into a wedge formation after a strong upward push. On the 15-minute chart, the price is sitting right at a confluence of support and resistance trendlines: * MACD: Starting to recover after a bearish dip, showing early signs of momentum turning back positive. * Stoch RSI: Pushing back toward overbought, suggesting buyers are regaining control, but overextension risk remains. * Key Levels: Support sits at $603–602.9, with a deeper floor at $600. Resistance is overhead at $608–610, aligning with the wedge breakout zone. Intraday takeaway: QQQ is set for a decisive move. Above $608, it could press into $610+, but losing $603 risks a flush back into $600. Options Sentiment & GEX Outlook (1H Chart) Gamma exposure highlights a clear battleground for tomorrow’s session: * Gamma Walls: * $606–608: Major call resistance cluster and highest positive GEX zone. * $600: Gamma pivot and HVL level — critical support where dealers may defend. * $595–590: Heavy put walls below, acting as downside magnets if $600 breaks. * Implications: * Holding above $603–606 keeps price magnetized toward $608–610. * A breakdown under $600 would trigger dealer hedging pressure, driving the Qs toward $595–590. * Volatility Context: IVR at 17.8 is low, while options positioning skews bearish with 44.8% puts. This suggests traders are hedged defensively, which could amplify a sharp move either way. My Thoughts & Recommendation For Oct 3 trading, QQQ is boxed into a gamma range with clear pivot levels: * Intraday (scalping/trading): Favor longs above $606, aiming for $608–610 breakout. Shorts become attractive on rejections near $608 with downside into $603 and $600. * Options trading (swing/0DTE): Calls only make sense if QQQ breaks $608 with volume, targeting $610+. If QQQ loses $603 and especially $600, puts toward $595 offer better risk/reward. Bias heading into Oct 3: Neutral with breakout potential — $608 is the level that decides. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Simple Investment Strategy (Long Term only)This strategy is designed for long-term investors using a simple, two-indicator setup on the weekly chart: • VWMA (Volume-Weighted Moving Average) – 52-period • EMA (Exponential Moving Average) – 10-period ✅ Entry Signal (Buy) • Enter a position when the 10-period EMA crosses above the 52-period VWMA. This crossover suggests a potential upward trend supported by volume. ❌ Exit Signal (close Long Position) • Exit the position when the 10-period EMA crosses below the 52-period VWMA. This indicates a possible trend reversal or weakening momentum. 💡 Additional Note • When the 10 EMA is below the 52 VWMA, it's best to stay in cash and wait patiently for the next bullish crossover. This helps avoid false entries and keeps you aligned with the broader trend.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by eemani123
QQQ Measured Moves & PivotsDo you chase the breakout, or wait for confirmation? 1. Buy calls now (since $605 cleared premarket) PROS You’re aligned with momentum If price rips to $610+ off the open, you’re already in Confirms the bullish measured move extension scenario CONS Premarket breaks often fake out at cash open Chasing is a weaker risk/reward if it pulls back You’re buying higher IV at the open, which inflates call premiums 2. Wait for retest of $600–$602 support PROS Cleaner entry with defined risk (stop under $598) Better pricing on calls if IV cools during the dip Confirms bulls are defending $600 as new floor CONS You might miss if there’s no retest and it rockets straight to $610+ Discipline can feel like “missed trade” even though it’s good risk management 3. Balanced Play (what many pros do) Scale in with a starter call position on the breakout (>$605) If $600–$602 is tested & defended with volume, add size That way you’re not empty-handed if it runs, but you still get confirmation if it pulls back
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Bullish Continuation BiasThat long lower wick + strong volume at the end of the day shows the dip was bought aggressively (buyers stepped in quickly when price pulled back) Confirmed with volume so not just a “wick,” but actual conviction (institutions/algos defending the level) That turns what could have been a “top signal” into more of a healthy consolidation candle inside an uptrend When you see long wicks + heavy volume near support or resistance, it’s usually a sign of absorption with big money is willing to take the other side At $600–$603, that’s especially important because it’s both a breakout retest & psychological level As long as price holds above $600, that wick + volume combo suggests bulls still in control A move through $605 on volume now has higher odds of continuation toward $610 Only if we see heavy sell volume without the wick (closing weak under $600) would it flip to bearish
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Oct. 1 – Holding $600, Gamma Pin in Play Intraday View (15-Min Chart) QQQ has been grinding higher but is now consolidating just above the key $600 handle. The wedge channel shows buyers defending dips, though MACD and Stoch RSI are cooling off. * Support Levels: $598.75, $596.10, $592.78 * Resistance Levels: $600.70, $602.06, $604.01 * Indicators: MACD histogram rolling red, signaling momentum slowing. Stoch RSI back near oversold, suggesting dip-buyers may step in at lower supports. 📌 Intraday Thought (Oct. 1): As long as $598–$600 holds, QQQ can push for $602+. A breakdown under $598.7 risks testing $596 and below. Intraday scalpers can play the $600 line for both quick bounce longs or rejection shorts. Options & Swing View (1H + GEX) Options flow paints a gamma box around $598–$602. * Upside: Gamma wall at 602, with extensions toward $604. A break above 602 could open momentum toward 605+. * Downside: Heavy put support at $595, with deeper levels down near 590. This positioning suggests QQQ may chop between 598–602 near-term unless a catalyst pushes it out of range. * Bullish Play (Oct. 1): Calls or spreads targeting $602–$605 if $602 breaks with volume. * Bearish Play: Puts toward $595–$592 if $598 cracks. * Neutral Play: Sell iron condors between $598–$602 while pinned. My Thoughts (Oct. 1) QQQ is showing a classic gamma pin scenario at $600. Market makers may try to keep price trapped here, but a strong break outside $598–$602 will dictate direction. If tech earnings or macro headlines hit, expect that gamma dam to burst and volatility to expand. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Sitting Near HighsQQQ is in a long-term uptrend, but near-term is at decision resistance ($603) Short-term momentum looks stretched, while the 1h/4h charts suggest buyers still have control unless $588 breaks down 15m chart suggests overbought, signaling short-term caution 1h chart shows QQQ is building momentum, leaning bullish if $603 breaks 4h chart shows the larger uptrend intact, sitting near highs, but momentum slowing 1. Bullish Breakout above $602–$603 (double-top resistance) Short-term signals QQQ is overbought, so some chop/pullback may happen before a clean breakout Medium-term shows RSI trending up, Stoch rebounding, which suggests fuel for another leg higher Bigger picture is still in a strong uptrend, consolidation near highs, no major breakdown $610–$615 (measured breakout & round number magnet) $622–$625 (extension if momentum holds) Stop-loss (risk control) at $596–$598 (to avoid false breakout traps) ~55% (slight edge to bulls) Trend favors upside, momentum still constructive on 1h/4h, but 15m overbought tempers confidence 2. Bearish Failure to hold $600 could test $588 neckline Short-term is overbought, ripe for a pullback Medium-term double-top structure is still in play if rejection holds Bigger picture retracement levels ($560–$567) if neckline fails Pattern risk (double top) is real, but bulls still control trend unless neckline gives way $588 (neckline) $572–$573 (measured move from double top) $560–$567 (Fib support, must hold for bull trend survival) Stop-loss (risk control) above $603–$605 (don’t fight a breakout) ~45%
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal