TILRAY INCNASDAQ:TLRY
Hey, traders!
Today I decided to share with you very useful , in my opinion, information.
I decided to tell you about a reliable model of trading on a rebound from the level.
Such a model has VERY bigg pluses:
1. The model is based on the presence of a limit order, in which the price stops, which guarantees reliable protection of SL
2. You can use a very small SL order sizes of 1-3 cents - and this is just great if you are trading with a small deposit or if you are trading with margin.
3. Often, in my personal experience, the RR is much larger than 3\1. Personally, in the worst case, I got 10\1, but very often there are 20 or even 30\1.
And as you understand, this is due to two factors: a very short SL hidden under a limit order , and quite a large potential for a move, provided that you, as a trader, have correctly determined the direction of the move.
4. Suitable for beginners .
I will highlight, perhaps, only two drawbacks:
1. It is rare, this model has to wait and be at the computer. In other words, the trader must be tied to the monitor.
2. the trader has to make a decision quickly enough.
When such a model is used :
1. After the price sawed the level , but then one of the bars opened and closed in the breakout area.
Mechanics:
1. After fixing the price in the breakout area, we wait for the level retest.
On the example of TLRY: the price has been sawing the level 10.60 for the last 3 days and fixed in the breakout area. But it is not enough.
If today the day bar opens and closes above the level, we will consider that the long player defeated the short player.
2. We're definitely waiting for the 10.60 level retest.
3. On the M5 or M15 ( junior timeframe), during the retest, we wait for one bar to confirm the daily level, then the second bar, cent-to-cent, will confirm the level again, which will indicate the existence of a limit order, for which we hide our SL
4. The point of entry is at the next bar.
Once again, this situation is rare, but if you see such a model, profit is simply guaranteed !
If you want to learn to understand the market and make successful trades, feel free and contact me.
Trade wisely!
TLRY trade ideas
$TLRY Fade and then popImportant: We are back at the resistance level from 3/27
MACD -25 positive diverging 30 min candles and about to roll over. (circled)
RSI- Still in slightly oversold zone indicating there is room for the price to drop.
SMI - continue the trend of seeing decline after a spike
Entries and Exits:
I would wait for entry if we continue to see a pull back to $9.82
OR
Would be a buyer @ 10.70 and use $10.50 as a stop loss if we gap up tomorrow.
If already holding 9.10 as a hard stop loss.
$TLRY $15.00 Major Target
If the momentum continues this week, $15.00 is very possible.
Currently sat under resistance at $11.00 a break above could result in some major short covering.
Shorts may start to worry that sentiment is changing is the sector and CGC earnings on Friday are pivotal .
Medium term $15 looks like a good target as resistance is very strong in the region
TLRY WEEKLYStanding at a breaking point which is also a heavy supply zone from the March lows. Volumes are accumulating since Thursday. Expect stock trading at 10-10.5 level for couple days next week. Let the volumes accumulate, successful in doing so TLRY is easily getting to 16 within next week. Breaking 10.5 resistance is a must!
OPENING: TLRY SEPTEMBER/JUNE 5.5/7.5 CALL DIAGONAL... for a 1.33/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $67/contract
Max Loss: $133/contract
Break Even: 6.83 vs. 7.78 spot
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 66.5%
Notes: With front month IV at 179%, running a small, bullish assumption engagement trade with this monied call diagonal right before earnings. Back month at the 90 delta, front month monied at the 61 with more than the usual amount of room to be wrong on the downside.