NIFTY1! 🪙 The 65% Human Probability of Getting Bitcoin Wrong
Across the world, central banks face the same challenge — how to respond to Bitcoin. And there’s roughly a 65% probability that humans, through their institutions, will mess it up before they get it right.
Not out of malice — but fear. Fear of losing control. Fear of what they don’t fully understand.
History shows it everywhere:
First they ban it.
Then they tax it.
Finally, they study it — and realize it never stopped working.
⚠️ Who Pays the Price?
Not the regulators — they move on. It’s the builders, traders, and ordinary people who pay.
Innovation slows. Capital flees to open systems. And the next generation grows up building elsewhere.
Every time humanity resists a new paradigm — electricity, the internet, Bitcoin — we lose time. But the idea never dies. It just migrates to where it’s understood.
🧭 The Bigger View
Short term: Fear and restriction dominate.
Medium term: Adaptation begins.
Long term: Integration becomes inevitable.
Bitcoin doesn’t need permission. It only needs time — and human learning curves always take time.
💡 The Takeaway
It’s not India. It’s not America. It’s not the RBI or the Fed. It’s human nature to resist what challenges our control.
The question is — how long until we realize Bitcoin was never against us, but for us?
NIFTY1! In India, infrastructure for libraries is almost nonexistent. If you live here, you know the population is enormous, yet we lack enough public spaces for learning. Most students rely heavily on tuitions — true libraries, as they exist in other countries, are rare. The only spaces we have are study spots, not real libraries. We need a culture for libraries and better access to knowledge.
There’s also a huge culture of tuitions for exams that don’t matter much in life. Yet, they matter for India’s management — which is inefficient. For example, my application submitted to a government office has been pending for a week now. This is something AI could automate — machines work 24/7 without delay. We pay taxes for this, yet we get inefficiency.
We need a disruptive, visionary team like Doge — bold, creative, uncompromising — in India. Regarding education, inflation in costs for the same outdated foundations is pointless. We must update our books for the AI era and build new education foundations. Otherwise, chasing marks for IITs or IIMs is meaningless. AI will eventually replace many roles, improving those who currently “just hold a stick.” (If you think you can’t be replaced, ask CHATGPT: How can I be replaced? — you will be standing in front of your own mirror.)
Infrastructure in India is another critical problem. If I buy a RACE Lamborghini, I can’t even drive it properly here — just look at our roads. Planning is poor — even simple changes take ages. India has a population of about 1.46 billion, compared to 342 million in the USA or smaller countries, and this changes everything.
We want to do business for ourselves, but with such a huge population, competition becomes cutthroat. Imagine FMCG companies — they end up undercutting each other to survive, offering lower prices to win market share. This is basic economics. Even billion-dollar companies face margin pressure, and it’s not entirely their fault — it’s the population and market conditions.
Yet the RBI treats this population challenge by pumping liquidity — essentially creating money out of thin air — instead of upgrading to Bitcoin or other innovations. This may temporarily ease issues like population . (For example: if we have less money, we might have fewer kids — indirectly addressing population.) But it comes at a huge cost: a growing fiscal deficit.
NIFTY1! Anyone selling here? Let’s see if we head to the next support. What’s your take on a better risk–reward? Looks like they’re just advertising, inflating the balance sheet, and dumping while asking for insane valuations. Time to push this PE lower.
NIFTY1! 🪙 The 65% Human Probability of Getting Bitcoin Wrong
