QM1! trade ideas
Lower Highs Signal Weakness: Crude Oil Bears Eye $61 Support
The recent attempt to rally stalled around $65–66, failing to break above the mid-Bollinger band resistance.
Multiple long upper wicks show selling pressure on rallies.
Price is moving closer to the lower band after failing to hold above the middle band.
The market shows weak upside momentum and dominant selling pressure.
As long as price stays below $65.50, bears maintain control.
If $61.00 support breaks, downside targets are $59.00, then $57.00.
61.74This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
WTI(20251002)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
At 8:15 PM Beijing time on Wednesday, U.S. ADP employment figures fell by 32,000 in September, the largest drop since March 2023 and the third decline in four months. This was below market expectations of 50,000 jobs, and the previous reading was revised down from 54,000 to -3,000.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and spot gold saw little short-term movement. Traders increased their bets on two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Interest rate swaps tied to the date of the upcoming Fed meeting indicate an expected rate cut of 46 basis points by year-end, compared to a 42 basis point estimate before the data was released.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
61.81
Support and Resistance Levels:
63.26
62.72
62.36
61.25
60.90
60.36
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 61.81, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price at 62.36.
If the price breaks below 61.25, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price at 60.90
Crude Oil Ready to Explode ? Watch This Key Support Pattern!Crude Oil (4H & 15Min Chart) Analysis:
Crude Oil is moving within a well-defined parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe, with a strong support zone at 5480–5490.
On the 15-minute chart, a descending broadening wedge is forming, with the pattern support zone also near 5480–5490 and pattern resistance around 5600.
Potential breakout target: 5700.
If the support zone holds, we may see higher prices in Crude Oil.
Summary: Key support at 5480–5490 is critical. Watch for a breakout above 5600 for a potential upside move toward 5700.
Thank you !!
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
We've said this many times before: sell crude oil when it rebounds. Don't be afraid. If it breaks through, we'll lose money, but if it doesn't, we'll make money every time. The daily chart and indicators haven't changed. This is still a correction after a sharp sell-off, encountering resistance. We need to look for rebounds during this correction to continue selling. Sell crude oil if it rebounds today at 64.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
Recent fundamentals revolve around the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This week, we'll focus on two major data points: ADP and non-farm payrolls.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00
Light Crude Oil (CL) Elliott Wave Outlook Points to Lower PricesThe short-term Elliott Wave structure in crude oil indicates a downward cycle from the June 23, 2025, high, unfolding as a five-wave impulse. Wave 1 concluded at $61.45, and wave 2 rallied to $66.42, as shown on the 1-hour chart. Wave 2 developed as a regular flat structure. From wave 1’s low, wave ((a)) peaked at $64.76. Wave ((b)) fell to $61.85, and wave ((c)) advanced to $66.42, finalizing wave 2.
Oil now declines in wave 3, structured as an impulse. From wave 2’s high, wave (i) reached $64.87, and wave (ii) corrected to $65.40. Wave (iii) dropped to $62.98, followed by wave (iv) at $63.50. Oil should extend lower in wave (v) to complete wave ((i)) of 3. Afterward, a wave ((ii)) rally will likely adjust the decline from the September 26, 2025, high in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern before resuming downward. As long as the $66.42 pivot high remains intact, near-term rallies are expected to fail in a 3, 7, or 11-swing sequence, leading to further declines. This structure suggests oil faces continued bearish pressure in the short term, with limited upside potential unless the pivot breaks.
[CL] USOIL Trade ideaI can even see a target much lower but fondamentally for now I am not sure it will be reasonable ... let's adapt to the market conditions.
Great Trade !
Crude oil - Sell around 65.20, target 63.00-61.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has recently begun to surge higher, reaching around 65.40. Selling crude oil on the spot is recommended. Crude oil has reached the upper limit of the range, a level that has been repeatedly tested in recent trading. The recent range for crude oil is 66.00-60.00. We maintain a bearish outlook for the daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis:
This week's fundamentals have limited impact on the market. The US dollar has also begun to fluctuate. The market awaits new data to drive it. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in October remain a key focus.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 65.20, target 63.00-61.00
57.50This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
Crude oi bullish I've noticed this extended consolidation and a triangle pattern developing, and with all the volume during the pullbacks, I feel like we might see a break in the next few days.
Crude Oil MCX Future - Intraday Technical Analysis - 25 Sept. 25MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Crude Oil is consolidating at 5,773 after an extended rally, now testing key resistance in the neutral zone.
Bullish Scenario (Long Logic)
Long Entry (5,724):
Enter long above 5,724 as the breakout confirms strength above previous resistance-turned-support and continues the higher low structure seen in recent hours.
Add further positions near 5,706 on pullbacks with rising trend confirmation.
Upside Targets:
5,871 (Target 1): Marks the first major supply area and likely point of profit booking if momentum sustains.
5,930 (Target 2): Final mapped extension, corresponding to recent session highs and an upper channel resistance.
Stop Loss:
Place below 5,706 or tighten to 5,688 to minimize downside on failed break below intraday support.
Bearish Scenario (Short Logic)
Short Entry (5,688):
Enter short under 5,688 as it confirms a breakdown below key support with a lower low setup.
Downside Targets:
5,681 (Target 1): Previous bounce region, often a short-term reversal or covering spot.
5,622 (Target 2): Deeper demand, potential extension if selling pressure accelerates.
Stop Loss:
Cover shorts above 5,724 as that signals failed breakdown and likely reversal.
Neutral/Structure Logic
Neutral Zone (5,776):
Price here indicates indecision; best to avoid fresh positions until a decisive breakout or breakdown.
Sustained close above means bulls remain in control; below 5,724 means a retracement setup is active.
Follow Chart Pathik for more such updates.
Crude oil futures probable price movementsCrude oil futures probable price movements. we can see an up movement in price above the levels
dangerous but plausable long trade, enter immediatly 1->4 :
* number 3 closes above number 1,
number 2 is solid low, number 4 we return
next?
* danger of a double top, but the latest candle is
bullish and closing above a stacked imbalance,
furthermore the red candle closes above its poc
showing exploratory efforts by buyers
* bullish divergence rsi and mfi
* fib retracement from 2->3 shows red cadle
piercing 0.62->0.79
* multiple fractal level dPOC shows same area ,
red candle pierce
*anchored vwap shows volume disinterest at level
4, sellers dont have the power to push below.
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Today's daily crude oil chart saw a small rebound, in line with our expectations yesterday. Crude oil remains bearish, and rebounds present opportunities for further shorting. Focus on selling around 64.50 today. This trend has been consistent for several months, and the price has been oscillating around this level for several months. Don't be too fussy about trading; take profits and sell. The key to a volatile market is the rhythm and position.
Fundamental Analysis:
There are no major fundamentals or data this week, only standard data. Focus on the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil: Sell around 64.00, target 62.00-60.00
WTI(20250924)Today's AnalysisMarket Analysis:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, but allows the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments; tariffs are expected to have a one-time pass-through effect; and decisions will "never be based on political considerations." Fed spokespersons noted that Powell's comments indicate that he believes interest rates remain tight, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
63.01
Support and Resistance Levels:
65.01
64.26
63.77
62.24
61.75
61.01
Trading Strategy:
On a break above 63.77, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 64.26.
On a break below 63.01, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 62.24
WTI(20250922)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Federal Reserve Board Governor Milan: Expects continued rate cuts in the coming months and will work to convince other policymakers to cut more quickly; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Two more rate cuts this year would be appropriate.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
62.58
Support and Resistance Levels:
63.70
63.28
63.01
62.15
61.87
61.45
Trading Strategy:
If the market breaks above 62.58, consider buying, with the first target at 63.01.
If the market breaks below 62.15, consider selling, with the first target at 61.87
Crude Oil Trading Levels – Plan Your Move!CRUDE OIL – Daily Timeframe Update
Crude Oil is trading within a well-defined parallel channel on the daily chart.
The price is currently taking support near the 5460–5490 zone and moving within an ascending channel.
Support Zone: 5460 – 5490
Resistance Zone: 5700 – 5720
If these levels sustain, we may see higher prices ahead in Crude Oil.
Thank you!!
Triple Confluence: POC Return + Dual Divergence + Delta Flat🔥 CL1! Triple Confluence: POC Return + Dual Divergence + Delta Flat
The Market Participant Battle:
Bears have been systematically crushed at three critical junctures. First, at point 2 (the POC from swing 0→3), establishing proven trapped participants. Second, at point 4 where price pierced VWAP's 2nd deviation only to violently reject. Now, on the 15-minute entry timeframe, we see the final capitulation signal: delta remaining completely flat (no divergence) while price shows bullish divergence. This triple-layered setup reveals bears are not just beaten - they're exhausted, absorbed, and about to fuel a squeeze back to the $65-68 resistance zone as price returns to reclaim the proven participants at point 2.
Confluences:
Confluence 1: POC Market Participant Trap (1H Chart)
The hourly chart reveals the foundation of this trade: Point 2 marks the Point of Control from the major swing 0→3, where maximum volume traded hands. When price closed above point 1, these participants became trapped bears. Now at point 4, we're returning to this proven battleground where shorts will be forced to cover. The numbered reference points (1,2,3,4) map the complete journey of market participants from accumulation to distribution to the current return phase.
Confluence 2: Dual MFI/RSI Divergences (1H Chart)
Both MFI and RSI show an extraordinary dual-divergence setup. First, a normal bullish divergence where price made lower lows while indicators made higher lows. Second, a hidden/continuation divergence confirming the underlying trend remains bullish. This rare combination of two different divergence types on the same indicators typically precedes 3-5% moves. The divergences span from point 2 through point 4, showing sustained buying pressure despite price weakness.
Confluence 3: VWAP 2nd Deviation Rejection + Delta Flat Entry
Using VWAP anchored from point 1, price at point 4 pierced the -2 standard deviation before snapping back - a classic institutional accumulation signal. Now on the 15-minute entry timeframe, we see the trigger: delta completely flat (180→118→95) showing no divergence despite price attempts lower, combined with bullish price divergence. Volume footprint s
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) – 1H ChartPrice rejected the supply zone near 64.70 and broke structure below 64.00.
Expecting a pullback, then continuation down to the 62.30–61.50 area.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Entry: Below 64.00
TP: 62.36 / 61.48
SL: Above 64.75
Risk-Reward: Favorable setup
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
Crude Oil Pivot at $65 | Break & Hold Fuels UptrendLast Sunday Opec+ agrees further oil output boost by 137K barrels per day, but less than Sep / Aug output, when market open it went higher.
How to manage short-term risk, in this case opportunity with CME Group weekly energy options on such a scheduled announcement?
Video version:
Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: CL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
