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US Dollar: Bearish! Buyside LQ Sweep Before Rate Cut?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 15 - 19th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar The USD has a .25 basis point rate cut coming Wednesday. Will there be a manipulation of the buy side liquidity before prices turn downward? I am looking out for this fake out maneuver by MMs, being mindful the rate cut will weaken the USD against its counterparts. A short term move higher before the market turns bearish with the news announcements is more then possible. Wait and react. Do not predict. React and do not predict. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
8
USD Rate Cut Rally - X Marks the SpotThe Fed cut rates while warning of another 50 bps of softening for this year and another 25 for next year. Yet the USD has rallied since just after the release of the rate cut announcement with strength holding into the end of the week. This is quite similar to last year's rate cut cycle starting from the FOMC. At that meeting, the USD initially pushed down to a fresh low - and that's when sellers started to stall. It took another week and a half or so but soon bulls took over with aggression and ran a strong rally through Q4 trade. This also led to higher US yields, with both the 10 and 30-year setting a low yield watermark just a day ahead of the rate cut. But, as the cut and continued to cut in Q4, US yields just went higher and higher, with the 10-year eventually tagging 4.8% in the first few weeks of 2025 (after a pre-cut low of 3.6%) and the 30-year hitting 5% (after a pre-cut low of 3.9%). This may seem counter-intuitive, as the Fed softening rates led to higher long-term rates, but if the Fed is cutting rates with inflation already high, this is something that can happen. Long-term inflation expectations moving higher makes the prospect of sitting long in long bonds as a less attractive prospect. And there's also the opportunity cost element, why settle for a 3.9% year-over-year return if inflation is expected at 3% or maybe even more; meanwhile stock prices are rallying on the back of a softer Fed even with a backdrop of high inflation. While last year's rate cut marked a significant low for DXY, there's potential for a repeat occurrence. We're still in the early stages of the move and the Fed sounded just a little less dovish than what markets were hoping for, by reining in expectations for 50-75 bps in cuts next year. But given just how stretched USD bears have been, any further motive towards fewer FOMC cuts could lead to a stronger USD. For next week, the big focus is on EUR/USD supports which remain in-play, and those keep bulls in the conversation until they're traded through. And with the Euro as 57.6% of the DXY quote, that's an extremely important factor for USD trends as we near the Q4 open. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
DXY is setting for another dropPre FOMC move on DXY bearish as with 0.25% to 0.5% rate cut decision as significantly impacted dollar index which on press conference, price finally rejected from the lower level 96.20 As with the weekly close coming in few hours, price approaching another key level of resistance, weekly and monthly giving a high probablity to reject back again to the support level as the resistance consist of 3 higher timeframe confulences, monty and weekly resistance alogn with weekly 10ema combining with break of series of lower highs and break of the combinations could lead the price to drop to the support. at 96.20
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexWizard01
What Was Important for the US Dollar Index (DXY) This WeekWhat Was Important for the US Dollar Index (DXY) This Week The long-awaited event — the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 — has taken place. What is particularly important to note is the price action on the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart. The value of the USD against a basket of other currencies made a two-step move, forming a pin-bar candle with a long lower shadow: → Arrow 1: When the Fed actually announced the easing, the dollar weakened as expected on this “dovish news.” → Arrow 2: But at the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a series of “hawkish” remarks that shifted the market mood and drove the dollar higher. He stressed that this cut does not mark the beginning of “a series of continuous rate reductions,” and that further decisions will be taken “based on incoming economic data.” Powell also stated plainly that the option of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut had not gained sufficient support among FOMC members. Therefore, the “down-then-up” move highlights a sharp change in trader sentiment within a short timeframe, as expectations failed to materialise. Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart In our 9 September analysis, we confirmed the relevance of: → the descending channel (shown in red) defined by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows; → the intermediate QL and QH lines, which divide the channel into quarters. Notably, at Wednesday’s low the price: → touched the QL line, underscoring its strength; → formed a clear Liquidity Grab pattern (in the terminology of the Smart Money Concept methodology). From the perspective of Richard Wyckoff’s method, Wednesday’s low may be viewed as a Spring pattern, which preceded a Mark-Up phase of rising prices. How Might Events Unfold Next? Given the above, we could assume that the hawkish tone could serve as a longer-term factor for the DXY index. The 97.55 level appears to act as resistance, but it is possible that we may see an attempt to break through it, with the next target being the QH line. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:DXY
by FXOpen
2
Dollar - Daily Range I Liqudity I Key Level - ShortDollar has reached key level after whipsaw move on FOMC. It also grabbed liqudity and COT is still bearish while HTF Key Level on lower prices. Hence I think new low is in play. Trading is like a sport. If you consistently practice you can learn it. “Adapt what is useful. Reject whats useless and add whats is specifically yours.” David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter 💬 Don't hesitate to ask any questions or share your opinions
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by David_Perk
33
DXY 4H – Bullish Reversal Setup from FVG Zone | Target 98.63Technical Analysis Downtrend Channel (Bearish Structure) Price has been moving inside a descending channel (highlighted in red). Recently, it touched the lower boundary and formed a rounded bottom pattern (possible reversal signal). Trendline Breakout A short-term downtrend line has been broken to the upside. This suggests momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish. Fair Value Gap (FVG Zone) Price is currently testing an FVG zone around 97.00–97.28. This zone acts as a potential entry area for long trades. Entry, Stop Loss, and Target Entry Point: 97.28 – 97.27 Stop Loss: 96.90 (below FVG zone support) Target Point: 98.63 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:3 → good setup. Potential Scenario If price holds above the FVG zone and doesn’t break below 96.90, we may see a bullish move toward 98.63. But if the FVG fails and price closes below 96.90, it could resume the downtrend. ✅ Summary: Market structure shows a possible bullish reversal after a prolonged downtrend. A clean long setup is planned: Buy near 97.27 → Stop 96.90 → Target 98.63. Confirmation needed: Strong bullish candle closing above the FVG zone
ICEUS:DXYLong
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle. Next week’s macro stack: Tue – U.S. PMI flash Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area. Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
Dollar Bloodbath = Risk On Assets Rally?Dollar Fundamentals: The dollar posted modest gains on Friday due to higher T-note yields, which have strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials. The University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index fell more than expected to a 4-month low causing the weakening of the dollar. Limiting the upside in the dollar are the increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end. The dollar is also being undercut by concerns over Fed independence, which could prompt foreign investors to dump dollar assets as President Trump attempts to fire Fed Governor Cook, and by Stephen Miran’s intention to be a Fed Governor. What Can We Expect Going Forward? - Due To High Resistance Over Multiple Weeks, There Will Be Massive Levels Volatility, Aiming To Trap The Retail Traders - Next Week Wednesday Will Determine How Volatile Dollar Will Be. Anything More Than A .25 Basis Point Decline Will Cause Turmoil For Dollar. - This Will Lead Risk-On Assets (e.g. GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD) Rallying Up Into Premium Arrays Prices To Keep An Eye On: - 99.078 (Last Line Of Defence) - 96.377 Major Sellside Liquidity - Medium-Term Draw To 95.716 - 94.313 HTF Array GBPUSD Fundamentals : UK gross domestic product remained unchanged in July after growing 0.4% in June, the Office for National Statistics said, as manufacturing output, which makes up 9% of the economy, dropped by 1.3% on the month. The BoE is widely expected to keep its benchmark Bank Rate unchanged on September 18, after a split decision to lower the rate to 4% in August. What To Expect Going Into Next Week? - Increased Volatility - Trigger HTF Stop Losses - Unusually High Levels Of Manipulation Price Points To Keep A Eye On: - 1.35950 Buyside Liquidity - 1.36760 - 1.37036 Longer Term Premium Array - 1.34458 Mean Threshold (Last Line Of Defence)
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
Bearish reversal off pullback resistanceUS Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.36 1st Support: 96.47 1st Resistance: 98.12 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DXYDXY maintains a bearish bias, trading below last week’s open and confirming weakness with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows non-commercial traders reducing long positions and adding to shorts, reinforcing the downside outlook. As long as price holds beneath the current week open, bearish momentum is expected to persist, with any rallies into resistance or supply zones offering opportunities to align with the prevailing trend.
TVC:DXYShort
by Primus0725