MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar index has beautifully retraced 100% of a bearish Butterfly pattern that was identified between July 1st and August 13th 2025, hitting the monthly support target of 95.911. There has been a strong bounce from this support zone into the weekly closing range.
What we currently have now is also a bullish Butterfly pattern on the daily chart and the bounce from the support zone has retraced to exactly the 0.382 fib level (97.336). The weekly hammer candle suggests that bulls will attempt to reach the 0.5 fib level, however lower time frames shows that the bulls are losing their strength. As such, I am not expecting DXY to continue grinding up next week without a major pullback to retest the weekly candle wicks. Basically expecting a lot of volatility in both directions.
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USDX trade ideas
Dollar short-term BULLISH until proven otherwiseCAPITALCOM:DXY
After a deep liquidity sweep down to ~95.80 followed by a sharp buying response, a string of higher lows, and a higher high into the 97.39–97.78 area. Price is currently pausing just above the shaded Daily BPR.
That sequence (sweep → big rejection → higher low → higher high) is the technical basis for a bullish bias while price stays above the recent higher-low area.
Watching development for now...
DXY testing trend resistance after Powell comments
The dollar clawed back some ground after Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, but I’m not convinced this bounce has legs. With the Fed now leaning dovish, the bias still favours more downside unless we see consistent cracks in the jobs market to justify the two cuts priced in for 2025.
Powell reiterated on Tuesday that inflation risks are skewed higher while employment risks are tilted lower, adding: “Two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path.” Translation: he’s keeping his options open ahead of the October meeting. Fed chatter will remain front and centre, with Mary Daly up later today, jobless claims tomorrow, and the key PCE inflation reading on Friday.
The dollar index is now testing resistance around 97.60–97.80 area — a confluence of the 21-day EMA, broken support, and a trendline. Until this area breaks, it’s hard to get bullish. The broader picture of lower highs and lows still screams corrective.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DXY Dollar Heist: Can You Escape @100?🔥 DXY Dollar Index Bank Heist Plan (Swing Trade) 🔥
Asset: DXY Dollar Index 💵Plan: Bullish 📈Thief Trading Style: Layered Limit Order Strategy 🕵️♂️
🏦 The Heist Plan 🏦
Dear Thief OG's, Ladies & Gentlemen, get ready to pull off the ultimate DXY heist! 💰 We're using the Thief Layering Strategy to stack multiple limit orders and maximize our loot. Follow the plan, adjust to your risk, and let’s escape with the cash! 🚨
📈 Entry: The Break-In
Strategy: Deploy multiple buy limit orders to layer your entries like a master thief 🕴️. Suggested levels:
98.00 💸
98.20 💸
98.40 💸
98.60 💸
Flexibility: Add more layers based on your risk appetite or market conditions 📊.
Pro Tip: Set an alert on TradingView to catch the breakout or pullback at these levels 🚨.
🛑 Stop Loss: The Escape Route
Thief SL: Set at 97.50 to protect your stash 🛡️.
Risk Management: Adjust SL based on your lot size, risk tolerance, and number of layered entries ⚖️.
Warning: Don’t get caught! This is a high-stakes heist—stick to your risk plan 🔥.
🎯 Target: The Getaway
Police Barricade: Resistance at 100.30 🚓—watch out!
Our Target: Take profits at 100.00 to escape with the loot before the market traps you 🏃♂️💨.
🧠 Why This Heist?
The DXY is showing bullish momentum based on real-time market data 📡:
Macro Factors: Strong USD demand driven by economic indicators (check COT reports, geopolitics, and intermarket analysis) 🌍.
Technical Setup: Layered entries align with swing trade pullbacks and key support zones 📉.
Scalpers 👀: Stick to quick long-side trades with trailing SL to lock in profits 💰.
⚠️ Trading Alerts: Stay Sharp!
News Releases: Avoid new trades during high-impact news to dodge volatility traps 🚫.
Position Management: Use trailing stop-loss to secure your profits and stay safe 🛡️.
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Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style! 🚀 Every like and view strengthens our crew, helping us rob the market with precision. Let’s make money and vanish like pros! 🤑
Stay tuned for the next heist plan, Thief OG’s! 🕵️♂️🎉
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Institutional Structural OutlookMacro Context
The Dollar Index is currently holding within a weekly demand zone after a prolonged distributive phase. The market is evaluating whether this region will act as a structural accumulation base or if deeper liquidity levels will be tested. Confirmation from COT reports will be crucial to validate institutional positioning.
Technical Structure
Breakout & Acceptance: The last major breakout is still respected, with price now consolidating above demand.
Demand Layers: Three clear demand zones are mapped:
Current Demand – where the market is attempting to accumulate.
Deep Discount Demand – a deeper structural level where liquidity could be absorbed if the first zone fails.
Extreme Deep Discount Demand – ultimate defensive layer, aligned with long-term rebalancing.
Accumulation: Price is building a smaller accumulation range, signaling potential preparation for an institutional move.
Projected Scenarios
Primary Bias (Accumulation/Long): If confirmed by COT, current accumulation may trigger a structural recovery of the Dollar, strengthening against weaker counterparts (AUD, NZD).
Invalidation: A clean break below the current demand would open the path towards deeper demand zones, reframing the context as continuation of distribution.
Confirmation & Monitoring
COT Reports: Weekly positioning will confirm whether institutional players are indeed accumulating or still unwinding Dollar exposure.
Volatility Index (VIX + EVZ): As timing filters for breakout confirmation.
Macro Drivers: Next Fed communications and global liquidity flows remain critical catalysts.
⚖️ Institutional Note: The DXY is at a decision point – smaller accumulation is visible, but validation from institutional flows (COT) is essential before considering a structural recovery.
Dollar Headed Higher?Looking at the price of the dollar from a daily perspective, we can see that price accumulated for about 3 full trading weeks. Manipulation took place soon after, followed by 3 strong bullish candles.
Now that bulls have entered the market after the manipulation, I fully expect the distribution to take place after retesting the bullish FVG.
Since this is the dollar we're talking about, this price movement will most likely affect the price of other assets including Gold and dollar pairs.
Targeting the daily POI/Medium BSL.
DXY SELL PROJECTIONDXY (Daily Outlook) – Sell Projection
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been showing signs of exhaustion after its recent upward move, and price action suggests that a potential correction could be on the horizon. I am closely watching the 98.000 supply zone, which stands out as a critical resistance level on the daily timeframe.
Should price retrace into this zone and show signs of rejection — such as bearish candlestick patterns or a shift in market structure — it would present a strong case for sellers to regain control. A sell from this region could set the stage for renewed downside momentum in the coming sessions.
For traders, this projection carries important cross-market implications: if the dollar weakens from the 98.000 level, we can expect XXX/USD pairs to gain more buying power, particularly around the midweek trading period. This would likely support bullish opportunities in major USD counterparts such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and potentially gold (XAUUSD).
In short, patience and confirmation are key — waiting for DXY to tap into the supply zone and react will provide higher probability setups across USD-related pairs.
DXYDXY Bullish Bias
Buyers have stepped in, absorbing all selling pressure, pushing price higher. Watch for continuation as momentum favors bulls.
Key Notes:
Price cleared previous resistance levels.
Bullish momentum confirmed by strong candle closes.
Look for pullbacks to support for potential entries.
dxy 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Dollar Index Resistance & Support AnalysisDXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is trading around 97.71, holding within an upward channel after bouncing from the 97.00–97.10 support zone. The structure shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the chart also highlights a potential “strong high” area near 98.20–98.40, where resistance from both Fibonacci retracement levels and channel tops converge. If DXY fails to break above this resistance, a retracement toward 97.20–97.00 is likely, with further downside risk toward 96.80 if that support breaks.
Based on the current setup, short-term upside toward 98.20–98.40 is possible, but overall bias suggests a likely pullback (downside) after testing resistance, especially if momentum weakens near the channel top.
🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup)
- Sell Zone (Resistance area): 98.20 – 98.40
- Sell Trigger: If price tests and rejects this zone with bearish candles (reversal signals).
🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup)
- Buy Zone (Support area): 97.20 – 97.30
- Buy Trigger: If price holds above this zone and shows bullish reversal candles (hammer, engulfing, etc.).
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
$DXY breaking down. Next level to watch 95. Year-end lows @ 90.Even if the Fed cutting cycle has just started, we are seeing major weakness in the TVC:DXY index prior to the easing cycle. It is quiet peculiar the bottom to top of the Fed hiking cycle matches exactly to the DXY index Cycle bottom in 2021 to cycle top to September 2022. With a drop in the Fed fund rate from 5.34% to 4.34%, which is close to 18%, and the DXY has also lost almost 17%. If the expectation is that there will be another 0.25% rate cut over the next few months which will takt the Fed fund rates to 4.09%, which is 23% from the recent highs of 5.34%. And surprisingly if we plot 23% lower from the ATH on the TVC:DXY Index then the index should reach 90 by the end of the year.
Verdict: With Fed rate lowering cycle ongoing the TVC:DXY index will lose more strength. 95 remains our short-term target and TVC:DXY to reach 90 by year end.
US Dollar: Bearish! Buyside LQ Sweep Before Rate Cut?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 15 - 19th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD has a .25 basis point rate cut coming Wednesday. Will there be a manipulation of the buy side liquidity before prices turn downward? I am looking out for this fake out maneuver by MMs, being mindful the rate cut will weaken the USD against its counterparts. A short term move higher before the market turns bearish with the news announcements is more then possible.
Wait and react. Do not predict.
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DXY is setting for another dropPre FOMC move on DXY bearish as with 0.25% to 0.5% rate cut decision as significantly impacted dollar index which on press conference, price finally rejected from the lower level 96.20
As with the weekly close coming in few hours, price approaching another key level of resistance, weekly and monthly giving a high probablity to reject back again to the support level as the resistance consist of 3 higher timeframe confulences, monty and weekly resistance alogn with weekly 10ema combining with break of series of lower highs and break of the combinations could lead the price to drop to the support. at 96.20