DXY Daily Timeframe – Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY Daily Timeframe – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy continues to print strong economic data, which typically supports the dollar. However, the DXY has failed to create new highs and is currently sitting below key resistance. This suggests that much of the positive data is already priced in. With buying momentum slowing, there is an increasing probability that traders will begin taking profits — potentially triggering a sell-off.
Technicals:
After a liquidity hunt/manipulation above previous highs, price broke below a key level, confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH).
Post-breakout, price accumulated sell positions under the key level and was driven lower, reaching as far as 95.900.
A pullback followed, with price retesting the minor key resistance at 98.300, but failing to break higher.
We are now watching closely for a liquidity grab within the 98.300–98.880 liquidity zone.
📌 Trading Plan (DTF Bias – Bearish):
Point of Interest (POI): 97.950
Stop Loss (SL): 98.880 (above liquidity zone)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 95.800
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 95.100
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
USDX trade ideas
Powell Flags Rich Valuations as Dollar Holds the High GroundOur plan from last month is unfolding: weekly liquidity pockets around 97–98 on the DXY have now been tapped, with first profit targets reached on several cross pairs.
Technically, we see:
EUR/USD divergence – euro pushed into absorption while the dollar closed higher.
Heavy weekly liquidity – price action continues to respect the upper band near 98.
From the macro side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a quiet but important layer.
In his latest speech, he noted that U.S. equities appear “fairly highly valued,” a gentle reminder that financial conditions matter and valuations are stretched.
He balanced that with a steady-hand message on policy, but the hint was clear: risk assets are not priced for perfection.
Revisit: DXY long-term analysis (Weekly chart), maintain bullishRevisit: DXY long-term analysis (Weekly chart), maintain bullish view on USD that DXY near or already end of the downtrend
Technical perspective
DXY continues to hold above its 14-year ascending trendline, despite a brief dip below it—underscoring the broader uptrend.
The index has yet to make a lower low following an RSI bullish divergence, signaling potential for a bullish reversal. The longer it consolidates above the trendline, the closer the index resumes its uptrend.
A rebound from current levels and a break above 100.00 would establish a higher low—an early reversal signal that could mark the end of the downtrend and potentially accelerate gains toward 105.00.
Overall, this area may mark the bottom of the current DXY bearish trend and could trigger a significant rebound.
However, a break below 95.00 would warrant a reassessment of this view.
Fundamental Perspective:
USD is poised to turn bullish due to the following factors:
The factors that had been weighing on the dollar are fading, paving the way for renewed USD strength. Those factors such as concerning over tariff policy, central-bank independence (as the Fed now began an easing phase), and the concern for large volumes of maturing US Treasuries have been rolled over and has proceeded smoothly.
Europe and the U.K.’s competitiveness has deteriorated due to war and conflict, forcing a shift to higher-cost energy sources that will weigh on the region’s industries over the long term. The region also lacks a powerful new S-curve industry like the US tech sector, including aging societies in many countries pose structural headwinds that erode long-run economic potential.
Early signs of improvement are also emerging in the US trade balance roughly six months after the Trump tariff regime took effect, with a progressively clearer recovery expected.
One counterargument is that a Fed rate-cutting cycle typically weakens the dollar. However, there are several reasons the USD may not depreciate due to Fed dovish cycle from now:
1. Markets have largely priced in Fed cuts; the balance of risks now skews toward hawkish surprises.
2. Trump’s tariff policy may weaken trading partners’ growth and currencies, which in turn supports the USD.
3. Elevated geopolitical and trade uncertainty is boosting the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, drawing inflows even as rates fall—consistent with the dollar’s historical resilience during global stress.
To conclude, USD appears to be in a gradual recovery phase, with a more obvious strengthen likely over the next year.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
P.S. Previous analysis:
Dxy bullish | 98.012The US Dollar Index (DX) appears to be completing its Wave 4 correction within the Elliott Wave structure, signaling a potential bullish reversal. After a period of consolidation and pullback, price action is stabilizing above key Fibonacci support levels, suggesting that the corrective phase may be ending. Technical indicators are starting to shift bullish, with early signs of momentum recovery and possible bullish divergence on lower timeframes. A confirmed breakout above short-term resistance would likely validate the start of Wave 5, targeting a new swing high. Overall, the setup favors a bullish continuation as Wave 5 unfolds, in alignment with the primary uptrend.
Importance of DXY for all CFD and Futures Assets The 1H DXY chart shows a clear shift in orderflow from bearish to bullish, framed within an auction-theory context where price continuously seeks liquidity to facilitate rebalancing. Early in the week, supply overwhelmed demand, driving the dollar lower into a region of resting liquidity (sell-side liquidity/SSL). This liquidity grab served as the catalyst for demand to reassert itself, evident in the sharp recovery that flipped prior supply zones into demand. The chart highlights a demand flip and multiple demand re-entries, showing how buyers defended levels once liquidity was secured.
Auction-wise, the market auctioned downward until sellers exhausted at a support zone near SSL, where bids were reintroduced. This led to an imbalance that buyers corrected by driving higher, reclaiming inefficiencies (noted in the imbalance box). Subsequent consolidation acted as a re-auctioning phase to validate demand before continuation. Now, the bullish orderflow is steering price toward resting liquidity overhead (draw on liquidity), with demand zones forming higher as the market reprices.
In short: orderflow reveals a demand-driven transition, with the auction process shifting value upward after clearing downside liquidity. The next key behavior will be how DXY reacts once it taps into overhead resistance and whether new demand sustains the auction higher or supply reasserts.
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve.
Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds.
3 Key Insights
Macro Calendar – Stay alert:
Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders.
Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final).
These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows.
A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher.
• EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
DXY – Post-Fed Cut: What’s Next for the Dollar?The Fed has cut rates — but the dollar didn’t flinch. No major reaction, which suggests the move was priced in.
I currently see two possible scenarios unfolding on DXY:
Scenario 1: Triangle Completed – More Downside Ahead
If we’ve finished a triangle correction, a break below 96.20 could confirm the move and open up downside toward $95–$92.
Chart:
Scenario 2: Ending Diagonal in Wave 5
Alternatively, the recent low may mark the end of a 5th wave diagonal, completing Wave 3 of the broader decline. If so, we could see choppy corrective action before any larger moves.
Chart:
Key level to watch: Break below $96.20
If price closes above $100.25 I will review the analysis as this may indicate the downward trend is complete.
EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD Short Position Analysis
Currently holding short positions on EUR/USD initiated during the Asian session. The trade setup shows a bearish bias with multiple profit targets clearly marked on the 5-minute chart:
Primary Target: Target 2 around 1.17540 level
Additional Targets: Target 1 at 1.17679 and Target 3 at 1.17360
The chart displays key horizontal resistance/support levels with dashed lines, and the current price action suggests continued downward momentum toward the designated targets. Risk management levels and entry points appear well-defined based on the technical structure shown.
Trade Status: Active short positions with systematic target approach for profit-taking.
H4 DXY Market UpdateRight now, DXY is showing signs of indecision. No clear direction has been established yet.
I’m currently waiting for price to move towards one of the Turning Points (TNP) — either TNP A (resistance) or TNP B (support) — before making any trading decisions.
For now, I’ve set alerts at both zones and will keep monitoring closely.
Dollar Index drop at the start of the weekAfter last week’s high volatility due to major news — which gave the dollar a slight upward move — today, at the start of the week, it turned bearish. The channel it had managed to break after a long time now seems to be retesting, and so far it looks like it may fall back inside.
Overall, the dollar’s trend remains bearish, and taking long positions isn’t logical until we clearly see strong bullish signals. ✅
DOLLAR INDEX DXY WEEKLY ANALYSISDXY is trading near 97.70, attempting a rebound from the 96.90–97.00 support zone (since last week), aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
Prices are facing a confluence of resistance including fib level 0.786 & middle Bollinger band near 97.70 towards approaching the falling trendline resistance around 98.00–98.10, which will be a key inflection level for direction.
RSI has bounced from near-oversold (45 zone) and is pointing higher, suggesting mild bullish momentum in the short term.
On the downside, a failure to hold 97.40 (fib level 0.618) could extend weakness toward 96.90, towards the falling trendline support.
This week’s heavy US data calendar (Powell’s speech, PMIs, GDP, PCE) could provide catalysts for a breakout move.
Overall, bias is neutral-to-bullish in the short term unless 97.40 - 97.00 zone is breached decisively.
DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios💡 DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios
Price is currently testing an important supply zone (97.7 – 98.0) after showing a strong recovery. From here, I’m watching two possible outcomes:
🔼 Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to hold above the 97.7 – 98.0 supply zone, we could see continuation toward the next major resistance between 98.2 – 98.6.
Break & retest of 98.0 would be a strong confirmation for buyers.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
If the 97.7 – 98.0 area rejects strongly, price could reverse back down toward the demand zone (96.4 – 96.6) for liquidity grab.
This zone has previously acted as a strong reaction point.
⚔️ Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 98.0 | 98.2 | 98.6
Support: 97.4 | 96.6
📊 This setup gives both bulls and bears opportunities depending on how price reacts at these zones.
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US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move.
Here’s how I’m reading it:
Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game.
On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher.
For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points.
Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building.
If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
DXY: Key Levels + Change of CharacterBias: Long
Type: Reversal Trade
Trend: Range
Area of Value : Key Levels from downtrend before change of character.
Momentum : 1D MACD Histogram about to cross the High Tide.
Entry: 97.691
Exit: Stop Loss @ 96.890; Take Profit @ 100.894.
Analysis
Fact 1: DXY since 2022 has stayed above the 100.890 support level trending as a range.
Fact 2: DXY has now crossed the key support level @ 100.890 which now acts as a resistance
Fact 3: DXY crossed the trend line signaling a change of character + DXY MACD Histogram is about to cross to High Tide also signaling a change of character.
Conclusion:
Since the key support level @ 100.890 has now been broken, and there is a change of character about to happen. I believe that DXY will at the very least reach the resistance level @ 100.890 before bouncing off to continue the down trend or break to re-enter the range.
Recommendation:
Long Entry on the Area of Value (97.691), for stop loss add 1D ATR for distance (96.890), for take profit let it be the key resistance level (100.894). R:R of 4
MY VIEW ON THE DXY - 22 / 26 SEPTEMBER 2025Last week we saw the Index testing a new low, continuing its downward trend, cause by the Feds cutting interest rates.
On the major frames the Index is in fact bearish unless we have a clear move above 101.400.
This week I expect a pullback to the 98.300 - 98.750 critical area of resistance by Tuesday, Powell speech could push the index up to 101.050 - 101.350 or down to new lows in the 96.000 - 95.220 area of support.
The Dollar Index situation in the past weekThere’s no doubt that the Dollar Index is still in a downtrend. During this decline — while moving inside a channel — it managed, thanks to the news, to break the channel’s ceiling with relatively weak momentum. The probability of a pullback to the channel’s ceiling or even a return inside the channel is high because the momentum is weak. In any case, we’ll have to see how the dollar starts the coming week. ✅
DXY (US Dollar Index) AnalysisPrice is currently trading near 97.60 – 97.90, which is a strong resistance zone.
I’ll be waiting for bearish confirmation here before expecting downside momentum.
🔻 If sellers hold this level, we could see DXY drop further, aligning with bearish pressure on USD across correlated pairs (EURUSD bullish, GBPUSD bullish, Gold bullish).
Key Levels:
🔴 Resistance: 97.60 / 97.90
🟢 Target Zone: 95.00
📌 Trading Plan:
Wait for rejection at 97.60 – 97.90 before entering.
Look for sell setups targeting 95.00.
Correlation: Bearish DXY supports bullish momentum in major USD pairs.
⚠️ Risk management is key. Always wait for confirmation before taking positions.
DXY 4H – Bullish Reversal Setup from FVG Zone | Target 98.63Technical Analysis
Downtrend Channel (Bearish Structure)
Price has been moving inside a descending channel (highlighted in red).
Recently, it touched the lower boundary and formed a rounded bottom pattern (possible reversal signal).
Trendline Breakout
A short-term downtrend line has been broken to the upside.
This suggests momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish.
Fair Value Gap (FVG Zone)
Price is currently testing an FVG zone around 97.00–97.28.
This zone acts as a potential entry area for long trades.
Entry, Stop Loss, and Target
Entry Point: 97.28 – 97.27
Stop Loss: 96.90 (below FVG zone support)
Target Point: 98.63
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:3 → good setup.
Potential Scenario
If price holds above the FVG zone and doesn’t break below 96.90, we may see a bullish move toward 98.63.
But if the FVG fails and price closes below 96.90, it could resume the downtrend.
✅ Summary:
Market structure shows a possible bullish reversal after a prolonged downtrend.
A clean long setup is planned: Buy near 97.27 → Stop 96.90 → Target 98.63.
Confirmation needed: Strong bullish candle closing above the FVG zone
Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle.
Next week’s macro stack:
Tue – U.S. PMI flash
Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods
Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE
Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area.
Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!