US Dollar Index Tests Range Resistance as Momentum Firm Post-FedThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade within a well-defined horizontal range, bounded by resistance near 100.30 and support around 96.42. Price is currently hovering near the upper half of this range, suggesting renewed bullish momentum in the short term.
The 50-day SMA (98.17) is trending upward and recently acted as dynamic support, while the 200-day SMA (100.53) remains above price, serving as a longer-term resistance barrier. A sustained move above the 100.30 zone would be required to shift the broader structure toward a more constructive outlook.
The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover above the signal line, indicating strengthening momentum, while the RSI (61) remains in neutral-to-bullish territory — suggesting there is room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge.
Overall, the index remains range-bound but shows short-term bullish undertones as it approaches key resistance. Traders may watch for price action confirmation near the upper boundary to gauge the next directional move.
– MW
Trade ideas
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): More Growth Ahead
A quick follow-up for the yesterday's idea for Dollar Index.
The market successfully violated a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle
pattern on a daily time frame.
We see its retest this morning.
A confirmed bullish CHoCH on an hourly time frame gives us a strong
intraday bullish confirmation.
There is a high chance that the Index will continue rising.
Goal - 99.35
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DOLLAR INDEX DXYWHAT IS DXY /DOLLAR INDEX
The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the United States dollar against a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). It is calculated as a weighted geometric mean of these currencies' exchange rates relative to the dollar. The DXY indicates the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in the global market.
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) represents the return on investment for US government debt maturing in 10 years. It reflects market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
How DXY and US10Y interact:
When US10Y rises, reflecting tighter monetary conditions or inflation concerns, US interest rates become more attractive, which often strengthens the US dollar, leading to a higher DXY.
Conversely, when US10Y falls, lower yields can reduce dollar appeal, causing DXY to weaken.
Movements in DXY and US10Y are intertwined through monetary policy expectations and global capital flows.
For example, a rising US10Y can boost capital inflows into US assets, strengthening the dollar and pushing the DXY higher.
This interplay influences foreign exchange markets, commodity prices, and international investment decisions.
DOLLAR INDEX ON RETEST TO THE 4HR TRENDLINE WILL GO LONG .
TRADE REASON IS ON THE CHART,MARKET KEEPING LONG SENTIMENT AFTER RATE CUT WITH NO HOPE OF CUTTING AGAIN .
The Dollar Index (DXY) paradoxically rose despite the Federal Reserve's rate cut to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, 2025, due to several nuanced reasons:
Market Expectations vs Reality: The rate cut was widely anticipated and mostly priced in before the announcement. When the Fed delivered the expected 25 basis point cut without signaling more aggressive easing ahead, it reassured markets about the US economic outlook.
Dovish but Cautious Fed Tone: Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, highlighting uncertainties but not committing to a rapid series of cuts. This balanced tone supported confidence in the dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency, pushing the DXY higher.
Relative Monetary Policy: While the Fed cut rates, other major central banks like the ECB and BOJ remained more dovish or on hold, keeping the dollar relatively attractive.
Technical Buying: The DXY had technical support around current levels, triggering algorithmic and institutional buying on dips.
the DXY's rise reflects that investors viewed the rate cut as a pragmatic, measured step rather than a sign of economic weakness, supporting dollar strength despite the easing.
KEY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT TODAY FROM UNITED STATES .
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark federal funds rate on October 29, 2025, lowering the target range to 3.75% - 4.00%. This marks the second consecutive rate reduction this year. The decision was made amid moderate economic expansion, a slowing job market, slightly elevated inflation, and uncertainty caused by limited economic data due to a government shutdown.
The Fed also stated it will end the reduction of its balance sheet assets (quantitative tightening) on December 1, 2025. The committee emphasized attentiveness to the evolving economic outlook, risks to employment and inflation, and readiness to adjust policy accordingly. The vote was 10-2, with some dissent for either deeper cuts or no cuts at all.
This rate cut supports easing financial conditions to aid maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% long-run goal.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered speech.
Key points from his speech:
The Fed remains focused on achieving maximum employment and stable prices.
Despite some disruption from a partial government shutdown delaying some economic data, available information indicates little change in employment and inflation outlooks since the September meeting.
Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling, with inflation still somewhat elevated.
The rate cut was aimed at supporting these goals given the balance of risks to employment and inflation.
The Fed will end the reduction of its asset holdings (quantitative tightening) on December 1.
Powell emphasized a balanced approach between supporting growth and controlling inflation, noting the policy is not on a preset course.
Future rate moves remain data-dependent; a December rate cut is not guaranteed.
He acknowledged the challenges and trade-offs in monetary policy decision-making, especially under uncertainty from recent disruptions.
Overall, Powell’s speech conveyed cautious optimism combined with a pragmatic acknowledgement of incoming risks and uncertainty, signaling readiness to adjust policy to evolving economic conditions.
NOTE ;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY.
RISK MANAGEMENT IS KEY
ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL.
#GOLD #US10Y #DOLLAR
Forex Traders Focus on Central Bank DecisionsForex Traders Focus on Central Bank Decisions
As expected, the Federal Reserve yesterday cut the Federal Funds Rate from 4.25% to 4.00%, while Jerome Powell’s remarks reduced the likelihood of further rate cuts. Meanwhile, decisions by other key central banks are also influencing the currency markets, according to Forex Factory:
→ The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate from 2.50% to 2.25%, in line with market expectations. Its official statement highlighted risks of slower GDP growth, “continued weakness in the economy”, and concerns over U.S. trade relations and tariffs.
→ The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates unchanged but signalled readiness to raise borrowing costs if economic conditions allow. This has shifted traders’ focus towards a possible rate hike as early as December.
→ The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its key rate steady, with the decision due at 16:15 GMT+3 today.
→ Next week, both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are scheduled to announce their policy decisions.
Against this backdrop, attention is increasingly turning to the Dollar Index (DXY) chart today.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
On 19 September, we conducted a key analysis of the DXY chart, noting that:
→ The long-term downward channel (shown in red) remains relevant, divided into quarters by the intermediate QL and QH lines.
→ The index had rebounded from the QL line (marked by an arrow).
→ A bullish scenario was emerging.
Following that rebound, the price began to form an upward trajectory, reaching the upper boundary of the channel by 10 October — which, as anticipated, acted as strong resistance.
Currently, the DXY chart displays a narrowing triangle pattern, where:
→ The resistance is defined by the upper edge of the long-term descending channel that has contained the index’s 2025 movements.
→ The short-term upward channel from the September low remains intact.
This formation may reflect both the current balance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies and the uncertainty among analysts about its future direction.
Given the combination of central bank decisions, the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical risks, and trade tensions, a breakout from this triangle could mark the start of a major trend lasting several weeks or even months.
Yesterday’s Fed decision strengthened the dollar, breaking through a local Bullish Flag pattern (shown in blue) and increasing the likelihood of further upward momentum.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Confirmed Bullish ContinuationThe DOLLAR INDEX appears to be showing bullish tendencies from both daily and intraday perspectives.
From a daily timeframe, I observe a confirmed breakout of a resistance line within a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a trend violation and continuation.
On an hourly timeframe, we see a breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern, followed by a strong bullish movement.
I anticipate that the market will continue to grow.
The next resistance level is identified at 99.53.
dxy 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast - Q4 | W44 | D30| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 | D30| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and oculd bounce to the swing high resistance/
Pivot: 98.97
1st Support: 98.62
1st Resistance: 99.43
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Breakout Beyond 98.6 — Fed Cuts 25bps, New Structural Terrai🧭 Context
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed above 98.6 for the first time , powered by heavy institutional volume and a fresh wave of macro catalysts.
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bps rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.75 – 5.00 % — its first reduction since the easing cycle began in September.
Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that further cuts will depend on data trajectory, particularly inflation and employment stability.
Bond markets reacted swiftly:
10-year Treasury yield: dipped from 4.18 % → 4.05 %.
S&P 500 futures: modestly higher (+0.3 %) as lower yields eased risk pressure.
Gold (XAU/USD): steady near $2 435 as traders weighed dollar strength against yield softness.
📊 Technical Frame
If close > 98.80: confirms bullish structural regime — fresh momentum across USD pairs.
If re-enter < 98.60: false break → likely liquidity retest.
Volume expansion validates the move
Cross-asset implication: risk pairs (EUR/USD, XAU/USD, BTC/USD) now operate on new structural geometry.
🗓 Fundamental Pulse
✅ Today: FOMC Rate Decision (-25 bps)
🕓 Powell Presser: cautious tone, data-dependent policy
📅 Tomorrow: U.S. GDP (Q3 advance) + Unemployment Claims
📅 Friday: Core PCE — key Fed inflation gauge
Each print will shape the next confirmation wave of this breakout.
💭 Mindset
News creates noise. Structure creates order.
Volume shows intent, but confirmation proves it.
The disciplined trader waits for structure to speak before taking action.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
HSC+SH EUTo accomodate any attempt to reach pre ois high or weekly
Half session confirmation LDN 2nd moving 24 pips, flexed SL 2 pips to give trade breathing space in case atte.pted to reach Weekly high, aligns with DXY movement (reversing against strong holding support line) that might hold for one last time :)
DXY Turning Bullish TVC:DXY Hammer candle through the bullish 0.382 combined with a macro demand line suggests this area will be moving on up soon. A shot to retest upper resistance is most likely underway. With the slightly lower low (Secondary Test) that printed in September, this area looks like accumulation and adds further bullish impetus (signaling risk-off behavior). High potential for a change in momentum for the U.S.$ and consequently capital in the market in the weeks/months to come.
-Not Financial Advice-
FOMC OutlookAs US–China trade war concerns ease, the market’s attention is turning to today’s FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, a move that is already fully priced in. The decision comes amid “rising risks in the labor market,” as emphasized by nearly all Fed members.
In addition to today’s expected 25 bps cut, markets are also pricing in another reduction at the December meeting. With inflation increasing more slowly than expected and Trump easing tariffs, the Fed now has greater flexibility to lower rates, aligning with our outlook.
Two main topics will be in focus at this meeting. The first is quantitative tightening (QT). The Fed slowed QT earlier this year, and based on Powell’s recent comments, it could slow further or even be halted entirely. The 10-year Treasury yield has already fallen below 4% in anticipation of such a move. The Fed is likely to announce the end of QT or signal that it will conclude soon. If the announcement did not come, it will be seen as hawkish.
The second topic is further rate cuts in 2026. Markets are pricing in two to three additional cuts that year. Powell’s tone regarding the 2026 outlook could be one of the key drivers of today’s market reaction.
The dollar index remains calm ahead of the meeting. After testing the long-term trendline from 2011 (white line), the dollar recovered above its 100-day moving average and has since turned flat. The 99.60–100.80 zone, previously a major support, now acts as resistance. The dollar is currently trapped between that resistance and the long-term trendline. Depending on the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting, the index could start to move either toward the resistance area or back to the trendline.
Dxy Analysis Pre-FOMC 29-Oct-25The Dxy has been rejecting the 99 level since last week.
With the lack of economic data due to US Government Shutdown, the markets main focus now is on todays FOMC meeting.
25Bps is already priced in, so what will be more important is the tone and forward guidance we could get from Jerome Powell.
* If we see a surprising 50Bps cut, or the 25 bps cut with dovish tone: this could lead dollar index to break below 98.3 & test the 97.3 level. Even with potential to break lower into the 96 price level once again.
* 25bps with neutral tone: Since already priced in, and nothing new will be given to the markets, Dxy could be testing the 99 level, and keep trading in a consolidation range between the 98 and 99.
* No cut, or 25bps with hawkish tone: Dxy could break above the 99 price level, with next area of interest to test which is the 100 level.
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Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.93
1st support: 98.09
1st Resistance: 99.54
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Consolidation Ahead of FOMC
Dollar Index weakens ahead of FED rate decision today.
The market formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on a daily.
A breakout of one of its boundaries after an interest rate decision
announcement will accurately indicate a future direction of the market.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W44 | D29| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 | D29| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY: DECODED ANALYSIS My technical analysis on DXY: It currently shows a bullish trend on the quarterly, monthly, and weekly charts. The target is $111.68.
This information is for educational purposes only.
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Note: TradingView does not allow showing certain charts that go beyond technical analysis.
US Dollar Coiled for Breakout ahead of the FedThe US Dollar is coiling just below resistance, with DXY trading within a contractionary range ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. The index rallied nearly 3.5% off the yearly lows before stalling, with price consolidate within the first weekly range of October heading into the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision tomorrow. The focus is on a breakout of this range to drive the next directional move as we head into the close of the month.
Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the mid-September rally / 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 97.50/65. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten downtrend resumption toward the 2021 high at 96.94 and the June low at 96.37 – both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. The next major technical consideration rests 94.65/97- a key pivot-zone defined by the March 2020 swing low, the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 advance, and the 100% extension of the 2023 decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Weekly resistance is eyed at the 2023 low / 209 high / April low-week close (LWC) at 99.59/67 with bearish invalidation just higher at the 2024 low / LWC at 100.16/42- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 101.55 and the 52-week moving average at 101.98.
Bottom line: The U.S. Dollar is coiled just below resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the 97.50-99.66 range for guidance heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 97.50 IF the Dollar is higher on this stretch with a breach above 100.41 needed to validate a more significant breakout in price.
-MB






















